What is the future of the fine firearms market

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

I'm curious to know what collectors of high quality firearms feel about the market in general. I am open to buying the right firearm at the right price but have some hesitation.

1. Central Banks have dumped excessive liquidity on the market since 2008. It has sent all collectibles up in value.

2. All markets go through expansion and retrenchment and we have been in a longer than normal bull market in all asset classes.

3. Collectibles like fine time pieces and cars seem to be in a softening market already. Are firearms in a similar situation.

4. Hunters with fine firearms that hunt the world are a dying breed and fewer hunters are in the pipeline to maintain prices.

5. Boomers, the large collector generation are dying off. Are there enough X'ers to fill the gap and maintain prices.


In my mind, this is partially offset with the fact that western economies have so much debt that their only recourse is to print more money and debase their currencies forcing the values of most asset classes to continue to rise.

Is it still a good time to buy or will the market come down causing better opportunities for deals in a few years.

I welcome your thoughts.

@Wheels
As long as there is AH members around there will always be a market for fine guns as long as hunting Africa remains viable. If hunting stops in Africa as it has in the past fine rifles will plummet in value like it did in days gone by. There was a time when a fine high end English double could be picked up for a song due to lack of ammunition for them. Fortunately that has now changed.
Like any consumables they will go thru bull and bear market times.
The value of anything is only what the consumer is willing to pay. To one person it may not be worth a plugged nickel, to another the same item may be worth a small fortune.
Bob

 

[Wheels]

Yep. I remember the days when a British double could be had in exchange for buying an individual a tank of petro. This was even before the complete lack of ammo. Expats leaving East Africa for greener pastures with no need for a DG rifle in Durban, Calgary or Brisbane. Of course, we had no money then either. Even if we had known how the market would turn.

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

I'm 63 years old. I grew up reading Elmer Keith, Jack O'Connor & Skeeter Skelton. I own a handgun that belonged to Skeeter Skelton. I was recently in a higher end firearms store. The 2 gentlemen behind the counter, and working the phones did not have a clue who Skeeter Skelton was. They had never heard of him! I shouldn't have been, but I was shocked!

In another few years, I can see gun shows ending. I sure hope not, but the better firearms dealers/table holders are all passing away. I'm not going to a "black plastic is fantastic" gun show! I love my synthetic stocked hunting rifles, but I love beautifully grained wood on shotguns & rifles too. I'm a revolver guy, and love Colt Single Actions! I love older Smith's & Colt double actions as well.

@shotgungibbs
Sad!!! Not knowing who Elmer Keith, Skelter Skelton and Jack O'Connor are in akin to never having heard of Roy Rogers, John Wayne or Dan'l Boone.
Some people especially some of the younger ones are missing out on so much snd have no class.
Unlike us older people that are just pure class even tho our budget may not allow the fine things in life.
We are still just pure class because we appreciate the old.
Bob

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

35 years old here and I am holding the line for walnut stocks and blued steel! Even if I can't afford a double or a high grade bolt gun. Black plastic has its place, but it is not a priority for me.

@Captain Munro
But do you know who Skeeter Skelton and Roy Rogers were.
Being you is good it allows you more time to appreciate and understand class.
Bob
Ha ha ha ha

 

[rookhawk]

Regarding boom or bust markets, as pertains to fine art and fine firearms, I think 2008 (actually 2010 with the ripple effect of 2008) is a pretty good case study on what happens in bust conditions.

When the economic bad times happened, 90% of the firearms and 90% of the art world tanked with it, the fine auction houses were like flea markets. As a fairly modest collector, I bought a Purdey hammergun and a boss hammergun in that era for roughly the price of a Benelli Super Black Eagle. It was a great time to bottom feed for the "bruised and reduced" high grade guns that nobody wanted at auction.

So on one hand, mediocre guns (by best in the world collector standards) took a nose dive, on the other hand all-time record highs were occurring in each art category. The very, very best art in all classes shook loose from multi-generational owners and there were crazy bidding wars for the sublime examples. (e.g.Woodward, Dickson, Boss shotguns, e.g. Rembrandt, Van Gogh, and Warhol for art)

Examples of what you could buy in 2010 for a pittance:. rebarreled Stephen Grant sidelevers sidelock shotguns for $2500, Damascus small bore English hammerguns for $1000, 28 bore English boxlocks for $1500, Oak & Leather cased Lang sidelock ejectors with expertly sleeved barrels for $1200) Today, all of those guns are up 300%-800%.

A very strange contradiction occurs for fine art in bad times: Record lows and record highs.

 

[PerH]

Regarding boom or bust markets, as pertains to fine art and fine firearms, I think 2008 (actually 2010 with the ripple effect of 2008) is a pretty good case study on what happens in bust conditions.

When the economic bad times happened, 90% of the firearms and 90% of the art world tanked with it, the fine auction houses were like flea markets. As a fairly modest collector, I bought a Purdey hammergun and a boss hammergun in that era for roughly the price of a Benelli Super Black Eagle. It was a great time to bottom feed for the "bruised and reduced" high grade guns that nobody wanted at auction.

So on one hand, mediocre guns (by best in the world collector standards) took a nose dive, on the other hand all-time record highs were occurring in each art category. The very, very best art in all classes shook loose from multi-generational owners and there were crazy bidding wars for the sublime examples. (e.g.Woodward, Dickson, Boss shotguns, e.g. Rembrandt, Van Gogh, and Warhol for art)

Examples of what you could buy in 2010 for a pittance:. rebarreled Stephen Grant sidelevers sidelock shotguns for $2500, Damascus small bore English hammerguns for $1000, 28 bore English boxlocks for $1500, Oak & Leather cased Lang sidelock ejectors with expertly sleeved barrels for $1200) Today, all of those guns are up 300%-800%.

A very strange contradiction occurs for fine art in bad times: Record lows and record highs.

And as King George V said about a hammergun that a gun without Hammers was like a Spaniel without ears .

 

[Captain Munro]

@Captain Munro
But do you know who Skeeter Skelton and Roy Rogers were.
Being you is good it allows you more time to appreciate and understand class.
Bob
Ha ha ha ha

I know Roy Roger's! Not Skeeter Skelton though...

 

[Challer]

If you'll allow a slight thread diversion, this is a common misconception that Rolex actively promotes.

Firstly, pricing. Rolexes are a specific type of luxury good called a Veblen good [1]. What does that mean?

Well, for most goods, demand is inversely related to price point. i.e as price increases, demand decreases.

For Veblen goods, this is not true. For these goods, as price increases, demand increases. This is because the appeal of the brand is exclusivity. High prices make it unattainable to most, which makes it desirable to all, which makes those who can afford it, pull the trigger.

Rolex knows this, but they also know that to maintain this position, they can NEVER reduce prices [2]. If they do, then they lose their brand reputation and have to start actually being competitive with brands like Omega on price [3].

So, how do you ensure you can always raise prices?

Well most companies when forecasting demand work out how many units they think they can sell, then plan to make that many units. That maximises profit.

When Rolex forecasts, they work out how many units they think they can sell, then make 50% of that amount. As a result, there is always a wait list, they can charge whatever they like, and ideally second hand prices remain higher than MSRP as there are more people in them market than there are units available.

They justify this as 'production constraints', usually related to trained staffing. This is a cool story for the brand; 'Oh we couldn't possibly make any more units to this quality as there are no people who meet our standards', but it's also bullshit. Omega manages to respond to changing demand just fine, Rolex themselves have ramped up production every year over the past decade, they could easily eliminate wait lists. They just chose not to.

What does this have to do with the situation today?

Well, you cannot assess demand for Rolex by MSRP. That is not driven by outside market forces, it is driven by Rolexes internal strategy. Second hand pricing might be an indicator of overall demand, and the second hand prices ARE dropping [4].

Revenue is probably another indicator. They're selling at the same price or higher, but how many units are they making? In 2021 revenue was $13bn. In 2022, it was $9.7billion [5]. They've intentionally made less units, presumably becasue they believe that demand is dropping...

1 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/veblen-good.asp
2 https://www.minus4plus6.com/PriceEvolution.php
3 https://www.prestigetime.com/blog/omega-vs-rolex.html
4

5 https://legitcheck.app/stats/rolex/

Rolex claim they make a steady 1mm units/year. Demand just outstrips that on many key models. Most dealers sell out the back door to grey market dealers. Therefore, no watches for sale.

As recently as 5 years ago you might could walk into any store and get whatever you wanted save for the Daytona.

10 years ago you could as for and get a discount.

40 years ago they were in the post exchange.

 

[BeeMaa]

Rolex claim they make a steady 1mm units/year. Demand just outstrips that on many key models. Most dealers sell out the back door to grey market dealers. Therefore, no watches for sale.

As recently as 5 years ago you might could walk into any store and get whatever you wanted save for the Daytona.

10 years ago you could as for and get a discount.

40 years ago they were in the post exchange.

I saw them in the PX back in the early 90's for wicked cheap.

 

[CoElkHunter]

You know, the many experts here on fine firearms, watches, art, etc., such @rookhawk and some others here, have learned (maybe through trial and error) through many hundreds/thousands of hours of research into these items and their value. But for many of us buying something in a second hand market, I can see the potential for really being taken to the cleaners and losing a bunch of money on a purchase. I personally don't have the time or really even the inclination to do the research, so I don't/won't partake in the endeavor. I do find it really fascinating though and LOVE reading about the details that make a fine item worth its value.

 

[HankBuck]

Cheap? I see you haven’t bought any custom carbon fiber stocks.

I do have to ask how you know what it’s like to bring a hooker to thanksgiving dinner? What did your wife say?

Flewis: regardless of cost.... some “trashy-trying-to-look-decent” carbon fiber piece of carcinogen (made from left over soda bottles) will Never be invited to my Thanksgiving Table - even if that thing can perform feats never seen before. Some things you just don’t bring Home !

 

[CoElkHunter]

Flewis: regardless of cost.... some “trashy-trying-to-look-decent” carbon fiber piece of carcinogen (made from left over soda bottles) will Never be invited to my Thanksgiving Table - even if that thing can perform feats never seen before. Some things you just don’t bring Home !

How about for a Christmas present? LOL

 

[HankBuck]

I saw them in the PX back in the early 90's for wicked cheap.

Worked at Gap in the 1980s and the first thing every Manager did (when they got promoted to District Manager) was Buy-a-Rolex. It reeked “Look at Me” and screamed “I have money”....then they got hooked on coke, got fired, and sold it ! ALthough - it is a finely crafted timepiece. I too prefer an Omega....It’s like a high class Side x Side vs high end Over & Under

 

[VertigoBE]

Worked at Gap in the 1980s and the first thing every Manager did (when they got promoted to District Manager) was Buy-a-Rolex. It reeked “Look at Me” and screamed “I have money”....then they got hooked on coke, got fired, and sold it ! ALthough - it is a finely crafted timepiece. I too prefer an Omega....It’s like a high class Side x Side vs high end Over & Under

I must admit I’m no big fan of Rolexes either, for men at least. The models for women I find much more tasteful, as long as there are no diamonds on them.,

 

[CoElkHunter]

In keeping with my previous post here and outside the realm of "fine" firearms but in the financial zip code of most buyers, is the Winchester M70. Winchester has been manufacturing their "new" CRF version for over 30 years now. How many younger buyers even new that Winchester made a push feed rifle post '63 through 1991? I see a LOT of Winchester M70s for sale on GunJoker and other sites with no photos of the serial number or the bolt face. The sellers are not describing the action. So, the uninformed younger buyer thinks he's buying a Winchester CRF for $1200, when in fact, he/she is getting a push feed Winchester really valued at about $800. Not a financial disaster for me/us but for a young kid wanting a CRF, it's a kick in the teeth. I know it would have been for me when in my 20s something.

 

[HankBuck]

In keeping with my previous post here and outside the realm of "fine" firearms but in the financial zip code of most buyers, is the Winchester M70. Winchester has been manufacturing their "new" CRF version for over 30 years now. How many younger buyers even new that Winchester made a push feed rifle post '63 through 1991? I see a LOT of Winchester M70s for sale on GunJoker and other sites with no photos of the serial number or the bolt face. The sellers are not describing the action. So, the uninformed younger buyer thinks he's buying a Winchester CRF for $1200, when in fact, he/she is getting a push feed Winchester really valued at about $800. Not a financial disaster for me/us but for a young kid wanting a CRF, it's a kick in the teeth. I know it would have been for me when in my 20s something.

CoElkHunter - do you think a 20 something kid today even cares? Or knows the significance of CRF vs push feed? (He certainly didn’t READ anything about it). I’m impressed the kid isn’t buying an AR with 40 rd mag and night vision scope or a Glock 9mm —- whatever he saw in his last visit to the Movies !!

 

[Flewis]

Flewis: regardless of cost.... some “trashy-trying-to-look-decent” carbon fiber piece of carcinogen (made from left over soda bottles) will Never be invited to my Thanksgiving Table - even if that thing can perform feats never seen before. Some things you just don’t bring Home !

Still waiting for the story about the hooker.

 

[CoElkHunter]

CoElkHunter - do you think a 20 something kid today even cares? Or knows the significance of CRF vs push feed? (He certainly didn’t READ anything about it). I’m impressed the kid isn’t buying an AR with 40 rd mag and night vision scope or a Glock 9mm —- whatever he saw in his last visit to the Movies !!

LOL. Well, you're absolutely right. I guess I was giving SOME of them the benefit of a doubt? CARBON stocks, Creedmoors, Man Buns and tattoos FOREVER! Ha! Ha! Ha!

 

[HankBuck]

Still waiting for the story about the hooker.

Flewis — it was a Metaphor !! My Mom would kill me

 

[CoElkHunter]

CoElkHunter - do you think a 20 something kid today even cares? Or knows the significance of CRF vs push feed? (He certainly didn’t READ anything about it). I’m impressed the kid isn’t buying an AR with 40 rd mag and night vision scope or a Glock 9mm —- whatever he saw in his last visit to the Movies !!

Ha! The "older" guys I hunt elk with wouldn't know a CRF action if it bit them in the ass! They all have push feeds. Well, two guys have older Ruger 77s which are probably a quasi CRF?