What is the future of the fine firearms market

[rookhawk]

Nice analogy. Would you say that James Purdey & Sons is the Rolex of the bespoke gun making industry ?

Hartman and Weiss

 

[rookhawk]

Is there another definition?

Yes, but not a correct one.

Anytime someone says “wanna see my fancy guns” you’re always about to see a pile of junk. Generally, it goes part and parcel with a fancy dinner at the sizzler and a fancy car trip home in a Ford.

 

[Alistair]

"They are spending $500K on houses". And for the younger generations, there's a MUCH smaller percentage of those in their age group that have the jobs that allow them to even consider a purchase like that, when compared to the boomers' at their respective ages given inflation. Their "work ethic" is just not the same as previous generations. I personally know of three examples. They're content working their self described "lazy girl" jobs while living with their parents or others while driving beater cars, if they even have one. I've told them they need to pursue a career, so someday they can purchase a Heym 89 DR to take to Africa. They look at me like I'm from Mars or OZ. Ha! Ha! Ha!

Personally, I'm not sure it's a work ethic thing so much as simple economics.

Realistically, the average American of any age is making $52,612 a year. Some are doing better, sure, but there's only so many jobs paying 100k+ a year.

Let's say you make the US median income of $52k per annum. Not too shabby for someone in their mid-20s in most parts of the country. Your take home pay after Uncle Sam has taken his pound of flesh is 42K a year. So $3600/month.

For the average person, they'll need to cover:
Rent - 1700/month (based on the average for a 1 bed apartment nationwide).
Student loan - 500/month on average
Gas - 200/month
Car Insurance - 100/month
Other bills (gas, electricity, water, home insurance, car servicing, license plate renewals, medical stuff etc) - 200/month
Food - 200/month

Assuming the best case, that leaves $700/month in income they can save. Assuming they already own a car, never eat out, never go on vacation, never need to buy clothes, or a phone, or furniture, they never need to fix or service their car, and they don't do any hobbies that cost money.

If they want to find a 30% down payment of $150k, they'd need to save every penny of expendable income (or 20% of total take home pay) for 18 years... With no student loan ( therefore saving 33% of take home pay), it's 10 years. No wonder people just don't see it as feasible and give up.

In 1970 by contrast, the average wage was $9,180, the average house was $23,400. Saving 20% of your after tax pay would net you a 30% down payment in 4.5 years. Saving 33%, it's 3 years. Student loans were less back then, whilst the average rent was $108/month (14% of the average annual wage per year vs 39% now).

As for buying luxuries, most just don't have much expendable income. $700 a month to cover all hobbies, all vacation, maybe a car payment, maybe a pension contribution, maybe saving some cash for an emergency fund in case you get sick or you get laid off. How much is really going to be left over for buying 'fine' firearms in your 20s? $1500/year, maybe? If you're living in NY or CA or most of the bigger cities it's probably $0/year.

I am very lucky that I have a career that allows me to consider such things in my late 20s. I worked pretty hard to get where I am and I got lucky in a few instances with the right opportunities at the right time. But I'm also conscious that I both earn more than 99.9% of people in my age group, and that I live in one of the few parts of the country where housing is relatively cheap.

 

[Safari Dave]

When I was younger, I lived cheaply (my wife and I were on the same page) in order to "vacation" at a level that well exceeded our income.

She was a teacher. I worked for a medium sized municipality, as an environmental scientist, for stupid low pay.

It was funny that many people assumed that I was rich, because I had nice things and took nice vacations.

I didn't buy $7 coffees every day, eat out every day, and have never made a car payment.

I've worn a Rolex every day for 36 years, owned 3 Land Cruisers and 2 REAL Land Rovers since 1982, a Heym DR for 25 years, and taken over 100 animals on 3 continents (7 countries).

It's all about where you place your priorities.

I know folks who live in singlewide trailers, but have over $100K in boats, fishing tackle and trucks. (I don't recommend that approach), but they are doing what they love!

 

[Altitude sickness]

“Anytime someone says “wanna see my fancy guns” you’re always about to see a pile of junk. Generally, it goes part and parcel with a fancy dinner at the sizzler and a fancy car trip home in a Ford.”

What rude and arrogant statement

I have a friend that has very basic, what you would call junk firearms. and he could probably buy the entire John Rigby company.

I just looked at their total published assets. And he could easily buy the entire company. Let alone their “Best” rifle.

Parvenu

 

[Daniel Cary]

Good question .. Can I say anything with certainty as far as investments go?

I've never thought of them so much as an investment, to my surprise the inexpensive purchases through the years doubled?

 

[rookhawk]

“Anytime someone says “wanna see my fancy guns” you’re always about to see a pile of junk. Generally, it goes part and parcel with a fancy dinner at the sizzler and a fancy car trip home in a Ford.”

What rude and arrogant statement

I have a friend that has very basic, what you would call junk firearms. and he could probably buy the entire John Rigby company.

I just looked at their total published assets. And he could easily buy the entire company. Let alone their “Best” rifle.

Parvenu


View attachment 569209

You’re misunderstanding wealth with class. It isn’t particularly classy to overstate the quality of one’s items. It’s a habit pseudo-collectors do, the group of people I call “gun accumulators”. Having 400 guns that arent’ worth $50 a piece isn’t a gun collection. It’s a gun accumulation.

The topic is about investment grade firearms, not someone’s net worth. Not every affluent person that owns guns has fine guns. It’s sort of a firearms industry legendary anecdote that Wayne La Pierre has the crappiest firearms known to man. He showed up at an event once with a shotgun so rusted it barely functioned. He has an eight figure salary and is the poster child for the gun industry, so you’d expect a bit of panache. Nonetheless, he never claimed to be a gun collector and he doesn’t really enjoy owning guns, so to each his own.

 

[Altitude sickness]

I completely understand the difference. and you’re showing very little class with your statements.

What you’re describing is a snob. not class

I think you confuse a hobby that doesn’t lose money with investments.
truly wealthy people don’t buy firearms for an investment. it’s one of many hobbies.

 

[PerH]

I have seen many a fine collector piece and quite a lot of them suffers from bad barrel cleaning . Perhaps saddest I saw was a pair of duel pistols early 1800s , continental ones . Red rusty in barrels .

 

[Daniel Cary]

I'm curious to know what collectors of high quality firearms feel about the market in general. I am open to buying the right firearm at the right price but have some hesitation.

1. Central Banks have dumped excessive liquidity on the market since 2008. It has sent all collectibles up in value.

2. All markets go through expansion and retrenchment and we have been in a longer than normal bull market in all asset classes.

3. Collectibles like fine time pieces and cars seem to be in a softening market already. Are firearms in a similar situation.

4. Hunters with fine firearms that hunt the world are a dying breed and fewer hunters are in the pipeline to maintain prices.

5. Boomers, the large collector generation are dying off. Are there enough X'ers to fill the gap and maintain prices.


In my mind, this is partially offset with the fact that western economies have so much debt that their only recourse is to print more money and debase their currencies forcing the values of most asset classes to continue to rise.

Is it still a good time to buy or will the market come down causing better opportunities for deals in a few years.

I welcome your thoughts.

May I ask .. or guess I am asking: What your looking for, or at?
Proverbial investment aside ..

 

[BeeMaa]

Apparently I'm completely wrong when it comes to the mighty Rolex Daytona. Google was listening and put this at the top of my feed this afternoon.

https://luxurylaunches.com/watches/rolex-daytona-falling-prices.php

 

[Daniel Cary]

Apparently I'm completely wrong when it comes to the mighty Rolex Daytona. Google was listening and put this at the top of my feed this afternoon.

https://luxurylaunches.com/watches/rolex-daytona-falling-prices.php

These phones .. if they don't pick up on home conversations, I swear your subconscious thoughts as well. my God.

 

[BeeMaa]

These phones .. if they don't pick up on home conversations, I swear your subconscious thoughts as well. my God.

Not only that, if you are online...it knows what you type. Big Brother is real.

 

[rookhawk]

I completely understand the difference. and you’re showing very little class with your statements.

What you’re describing is a snob. not class

I think you confuse a hobby that doesn’t lose money with investments.
truly wealthy people don’t buy firearms for an investment. it’s one of many hobbies.


View attachment 569212

Differences of opinions. Stick with stocks if that's what you know. Buy whatever you want with your discretionary funds on a consumptive basis.

A few case studies in the art of the possible, at simplistic levels.

My son was 9, he found a nice vintage rifle in a take down configuration. (A Ferlach). He used his Christmas money to buy it for a few hundred dollars. He enjoyed it, I taught him how to conserve it, add a bit of slacum and oil, do some minor repairs to the horn butt plate. He sold that. He used the proceeds to buy a Merkel combination gun for a bit more than a grand. He enjoyed that, he got dies/brass for it, he hunted with it. He sold that at FMV which tripled his investment. So at ten, he had $3k to spend. He found a lovely Heym double rifle and purchased that, reusing his brass, bullets, and ammo and had another fine hunting rifle. He sold that, now with $6000 of available cash. He found a lovely best grade dakota and a swaro EE optic, putting that together he enjoyed dangerous game hunts in Africa with it, having sold it because he had designs on a Dakota best grade take down two barrel set. That's being imported now so he has a rifle for elephant hunting and plains game.

So between the ages of 9 and 12, he was able to turn a $450 investment into a $20,000+ rifle in about 5 transactions. He sold everything for the fair present value of the arms or below, and he selected firearms he had a functional need for and would have been happy to own forever.

I suspect between 12 and 18 he will continue to amass more fine guns and will continue to enjoy more hunts with all of them. Are they wonderful tools? Yes. Will I gut wrench if he sells them to pay for a quality education if he needs to? Not at all, he's welcome to divest himself of luxuries for essentials.

In the same period of time, every birthday card with $20 enclosed, every odd job he works, and all other sources of income have gone into a brokerage account or an IRA. His total investment portfolio hasn't doubled in three years, its only gone up about 30% in a balanced portfolio.

His alternative asset classes have out performed his traditional asset classes, and he's certainly had a lot more fun with his fine arms on hunts than he has watching his Tesla stock double.

 

[Altitude sickness]

That’s great that he has that passion and talent. You must be a proud father. Making even a couple dollars that way is very satisfying. Let alone parlaying into that quality of a rifle.

 

[mdwest]

Apparently I'm completely wrong when it comes to the mighty Rolex Daytona. Google was listening and put this at the top of my feed this afternoon.

https://luxurylaunches.com/watches/rolex-daytona-falling-prices.php

lol.. I HATE how google does that..

I swear it even listens to my voice conversations..

I mentioned needing a new cot to my wife recently (planning an elk hunt in Idaho next year.. I'd like something light and packable since we're going to have to hump most of our camp uphill for a few miles from the trucks to the intended camp site..)..

Sure as hell about 2 hours later pop up ads for camping cots started showing up in my feeds..

I know I had not previously googled or searched amazon, etc for cots..

but somehow the interwebz knows what I need lol..

 

[rookhawk]

lol.. I HATE how google does that..

I swear it even listens to my voice conversations..

I mentioned needing a new cot to my wife recently (planning an elk hunt in Idaho next year.. I'd like something light and packable since we're going to have to hump most of our camp uphill for a few miles from the trucks to the intended camp site..)..

Sure as hell about 2 hours later pop up ads for camping cots started showing up in my feeds..

I know I had not previously googled or searched amazon, etc for cots..

but somehow the interwebz knows what I need lol..

@mdwest its worse than you think. They aren't listening to your voice, they are predicting by your internet behavior via cookies what you're going to think next. It's a lot closer to the movie "Minority Report" than you think.

In some lab there is a data scientist that has figured out that A leads to B that leads to C in odd ways. Searching up jello molds equals buying motor oil equals buying a sewing machine equals enjoying videos of cats being startled by cucumbers.

 

[Rare Breed]

I have said this before...lets estimate 500 million firearms in the US. Boomers are the only ones for most part with the collection of 100+ guns. Boomers on the young side are 65+ most nearing 80. In the next decade i suspect that 300-400 million of the guns in the US are going to go onto the market. You are already seeing this as last dozen guns i bought came out of a estate of someone who died.

Now the live auctions are still high because the boomers who are in good health are still buying because they are seeing guns they have not been able to buy in a long time. Anyone who does online or forums knows what things sell for. Already you cannot even give away most basic guns or 60s-80s model 700 or model 70s

I dont see many guns having much future especially high end big bore. Younger generations never even heard of them and they are spending 500k on houses they don't have disposable income. I think we will see a point where you almost cannot give away certain guns.

i am a market researcher as background…sadly the above is true. having said that while i love my children i care to leave no fortune behind for them given i gave each of them a “pretty penny” to get them started after also paying all their college, five of them. my point is who cares after we pass if our guns are valued by others. i know my own children will like my guns because their dad treasured them

 

[Wheels]

May I ask .. or guess I am asking: What your looking for, or at?
Proverbial investment aside ..

Nothing particular at the moment. I'm just trying to figure out the market to see if it is worth looking. My gut tells me we are due for a correction in all collectibles but we have never dealt with the government printing this much money before. That money is looking for a home and has been driving all asset classes up. I'm just not sure if/when the music is going to stop.

If I was a buyer it would be for older bolt rifles from the iconic British or European Houses. Even open to scoped rifles since that is a requirement for a working rifle for me these days.

 

[WAB]

Differences of opinions. Stick with stocks if that's what you know. Buy whatever you want with your discretionary funds on a consumptive basis.

A few case studies in the art of the possible, at simplistic levels.

My son was 9, he found a nice vintage rifle in a take down configuration. (A Ferlach). He used his Christmas money to buy it for a few hundred dollars. He enjoyed it, I taught him how to conserve it, add a bit of slacum and oil, do some minor repairs to the horn butt plate. He sold that. He used the proceeds to buy a Merkel combination gun for a bit more than a grand. He enjoyed that, he got dies/brass for it, he hunted with it. He sold that at FMV which tripled his investment. So at ten, he had $3k to spend. He found a lovely Heym double rifle and purchased that, reusing his brass, bullets, and ammo and had another fine hunting rifle. He sold that, now with $6000 of available cash. He found a lovely best grade dakota and a swaro EE optic, putting that together he enjoyed dangerous game hunts in Africa with it, having sold it because he had designs on a Dakota best grade take down two barrel set. That's being imported now so he has a rifle for elephant hunting and plains game.

So between the ages of 9 and 12, he was able to turn a $450 investment into a $20,000+ rifle in about 5 transactions. He sold everything for the fair present value of the arms or below, and he selected firearms he had a functional need for and would have been happy to own forever.

I suspect between 12 and 18 he will continue to amass more fine guns and will continue to enjoy more hunts with all of them. Are they wonderful tools? Yes. Will I gut wrench if he sells them to pay for a quality education if he needs to? Not at all, he's welcome to divest himself of luxuries for essentials.

In the same period of time, every birthday card with $20 enclosed, every odd job he works, and all other sources of income have gone into a brokerage account or an IRA. His total investment portfolio hasn't doubled in three years, its only gone up about 30% in a balanced portfolio.

His alternative asset classes have out performed his traditional asset classes, and he's certainly had a lot more fun with his fine arms on hunts than he has watching his Tesla stock double.

I know a number of folks who have commissioned bespoke firearms. To an individual, they have done this for the reward of ownership, not as an investment. It is very unlikely that they will ever make money when commissioning a $250,000+ H&H Royal. However, they live in a zip code where that is somewhat irrelevant.

However, what you are describing is careful investment in the used market of sub London Best guns. This is quite possible but is fraught with potential pitfalls. It sounds like you are doing well at it, many don’t.

Right now the British market is flooded with vintage SxS shotguns as the sport faces the transition to steel shot. One friend has retired his grandfather’s Purdey for a Miroku! I just picked up a lovely Thomas Bland game gun while over for the Gunmakers dinner. The steep discounts actually make the import costs manageable.