What is the future of the fine firearms market

[LES7]

I'm 63 years old. I grew up reading Elmer Keith, Jack O'Connor & Skeeter Skelton. I own a handgun that belonged to Skeeter Skelton. I was recently in a higher end firearms store. The 2 gentlemen behind the counter, and working the phones did not have a clue who Skeeter Skelton was. They had never heard of him! I shouldn't have been, but I was shocked!

In another few years, I can see gun shows ending. I sure hope not, but the better firearms dealers/table holders are all passing away. I'm not going to a "black plastic is fantastic" gun show! I love my synthetic stocked hunting rifles, but I love beautifully grained wood on shotguns & rifles too. I'm a revolver guy, and love Colt Single Actions! I love older Smith's & Colt double actions as well.

You hit the nail on the head. Literature is what drives the fine “ whatever” prices. If you don’t read and dream when younger, you don’t work to purchase when older.

 

[rookhawk]

Here’s an example of a “bargain” investment grade gun.

When I found it for a friend, it was a one-family gun since it was new since 1934. It was barely used by the original owner, never used by the son nor the grandson.

It’s a Dickson of Edinburgh 12 bore sidelock ejector with best engraving in a pattern similar to the H&H Royal #2 pattern.

What’s wrong with it? It’s a 12 bore, so it’s as common as dirt compared to a sub gauge. 2nd, its a Dickson best gun that is a SiDELOCK rather than a round trigger plate action.

The price paid? It was imported for a US client at 10,000 pounds sterling. The buyer died and the importer was holding the bag. The price two years later? 10,000 pounds sterling and not a penny less! But the pound had collapsed about 1/5th its value in intervening time. So this is what 10,000 GBP would get you:

 

[BeeMaa]

As demonstrated by @rookhawk, this is not a game or luck...it's skill. Skill that most people don't have which is what makes it so valuable. Knowing what is good and what isn't is the rub.

If I had invested my 10,000 hours in the knowledge of double rifles and shotguns, I could probably afford a few more African safaris.

 

[WAB]

Here’s an example of a “bargain” investment grade gun.

When I found it for a friend, it was a one-family gun since it was new since 1934. It was barely used by the original owner, never used by the son nor the grandson.

It’s a Dickson of Edinburgh 12 bore sidelock ejector with best engraving in a pattern similar to the H&H Royal #2 pattern.

What’s wrong with it? It’s a 12 bore, so it’s as common as dirt compared to a sub gauge. 2nd, its a Dickson best gun that is a SiDELOCK rather than a round trigger plate action.

The price paid? It was imported for a US client at 10,000 pounds sterling. The buyer died and the importer was holding the bag. The price two years later? 10,000 pounds sterling and not a penny less! But the pound had collapsed about 1/5th its value in intervening time. So this is what 10,000 GBP would get you:


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That is a lovely gun at a good price. Your Fx shift is overstated, but the point is correct.

 

[Tra3]

The balance between hobby and investment is shifted by the malleability of one’s taste. A hunter who prefers synthetic rifles probably isn’t getting much investment performance out of the purchases. But it is a hobby, so does it matter? De gustibus non est disputandum.
My yearly budget for hunting is really indefensible. But it is what I enjoy most. I’m not going to sweat the returns on my hunting purchases. Thus far I have mostly resisted the urge to buy a double or an investment based firearm. Maybe I’ll learn enough here to change that.
I appreciate the input and dialog.

 

[PerH]

Same here also with the new lead shotgun ammo ban , but they made it even more than it will be in UK . If you are within 100 meters of a water area and just carrying lead ammo on you, it’s illegal .

About the phones

Meta and Google was in court about their system for making ads based on all that, it did not go so well for them there . That was just months ago .

 

[VertigoBE]

Hmmm, with this lead ban, there should be quite some nice things coming to market then…

 

[WAB]

Hmmm, with this lead ban, there should be quite some nice things coming to market then…

Already on the market. The shops I’ve visited in the UK all have lovely vintage guns on offer. Getting them home is a bit involved but doable.

 

[WAB]

Already on the market. The shops I’ve visited in the UK all have lovely vintage guns on offer. Getting them home is a bit involved but doable.

I should add, due to restrictions on gun ownership, there is a lot of pressure to sell the family heirlooms when they are replaced with modern weapons. My friend is able to manage with his grandfather’s gun as he is in the guild.

 

[HankBuck]

I'm curious to know what collectors of high quality firearms feel about the market in general. I am open to buying the right firearm at the right price but have some hesitation.

1. Central Banks have dumped excessive liquidity on the market since 2008. It has sent all collectibles up in value.

2. All markets go through expansion and retrenchment and we have been in a longer than normal bull market in all asset classes.

3. Collectibles like fine time pieces and cars seem to be in a softening market already. Are firearms in a similar situation.

4. Hunters with fine firearms that hunt the world are a dying breed and fewer hunters are in the pipeline to maintain prices.

5. Boomers, the large collector generation are dying off. Are there enough X'ers to fill the gap and maintain prices.


In my mind, this is partially offset with the fact that western economies have so much debt that their only recourse is to print more money and debase their currencies forcing the values of most asset classes to continue to rise.

Is it still a good time to buy or will the market come down causing better opportunities for deals in a few years.

I welcome your thoughts.

WHEELS, you are either way over thinking this - or are Soooo BRILLIANT that my simple brain can’t even comprehend your post (likely the later).
SO here’s a question that i might at least be able to understand your answer: Are you collecting purely as an investment opportunity (to sell later at profit)? Or to own something unique, rare, and that you appreciate, enjoy, and take satisfaction “just owning it”?

 

[HankBuck]

The fine firearm market is very strong right now. It gets stronger in some ways during a dire, disastrous economy if you don't buy lousy guns. (I'll define that later)

In good economies (like the present 10 years), demand drives up the price of new fine guns. This provides further support for the value of secondary market fine guns as their replacement costs continue to climb.

In lousy economies like 2008, there wasn't much in the realm of good guns on the market. It took 2-3 years of a crap economy to put enough financial pressure on the affluent to divest themselves of super premium best guns. In 2012 there were no less than 5-7 Westley Richards take down mausers on the market and at least 10 rigby 275s at a time. But once the economy improved, crap guns and limited supply was all that was available.

Right now for example, the guns that are coming through Holt's auction in London are just awful. Not a lot of stunning examples, just tired guns, oddly configured guns, and common caliber guns.

An excellent investment grade gun defined: Limited supply. Strong demand. Ideally a gun that is still in production to prop up the utility price for the person that isn't a collector but is contemplating a new best gun, but compromises into a vintage best gun of similar configuraiton. That's the best case scenario, when collectors want a gun, and so do non-collectors because its cheaper than buying new. Examples: Purdeys, Hollands, Westleys, Heyms, MacNaughtons, Dicksons, Hartman and Weis, Dakotas.

A lousy gun is a slice-in-time nostalgia gun that caters to a collector longing for their youth. I'm not a greatest generation or baby boomer, (I'm Gen X) so I didn't grow up with Cowboys and Indians fantasies. The elderly collectors are fixed-income pensioners, and they've amassed huge troves of Parkers (and their dreadfully and bizarrely priced Japanese replicas), Colts, old S&Ws, and lugers. Those guns are going to take a bloodbath, they just aren't worth as much or coveted as much by Gen X and Gen Y that have the working disposable incomes to justify such purchases.


But a best gun that has a contemporary demand? Those are going to do great.

Vintage Dakota for $12000 versus an identical parkwest for $17,000+? No brainer.

Vintage Boss 20 bore side by side for $30,000 versus a new one for $150,000? No brainer.

Vintage Grant or Lang for $15,000, versus a remanufactured one from AG&L for $60,000? No brainer.

Vintage Winchester Model 21 for $6000 versus a CSMC reproduction for $20,000? No brainer.

Vintage Westley Richards 318 for $8000-$12,000 versus a new one for $60,000? No brainer.

Vintage 1990s Heym Double Rifle for $15,000-$40,000 versus a new identical one for $28,000-$90,000? No brainer.

Vintage Hartman & Weis magazine rifle for $30,000-$40,000 versus a new one for $75,000? No brainer.

ROOKHAWK, I like your prices quoted for that “VINTANGE Winchester Model 21 - $6000...where is it?? I’ve been looking for a 16 ga - Skeet Grade, 28” barrels, ejectors, single trigger, beavertail for-end, prince of whales grip, choked S1 & S2, with raised rib.....or same in 12ga 28” or 30” choked IC/M.
They ain’t hanging on every tree - at any price. Yes, it’s easy to find a Win.21 but condition & specifics, gauge, are what drive price. As far as CSMC - they make a quality gun but it is (and will always be) a “knock off” - highly functional, mechanically sound, beautiful - the “Cubic Zirconium” of Diamonds !

 

[HankBuck]

yeah, used to be all wood and blue steel to me also but elk hunting and beat up guns changed my perspective.

A beautiful wood stock can always be refinished and a barrel reBlued - but Plastic never changes...it always looks cheap, highly functional, performs as needed but cheap - like bringing a Hooker to Family thanksgiving Dinner

 

[Ontario Hunter]

A beautiful wood stock can always be refinished and a barrel reBlued - but Plastic never changes...it always looks cheap, highly functional, performs as needed but cheap - like bringing a Hooker to Family thanksgiving Dinner

Cheap hooker? Where? Umm ... asking for a friend.

A better analogy might be a chimney sweep at an opera.

 

[CoElkHunter]

Cheap hooker? Where? Umm ... asking for a friend.

A better analogy might be a chimney sweep at an opera.

Or bringing @Bob Nelson 35Whelen to a .243 Winchester owners club meeting?

 

[Flewis]

A beautiful wood stock can always be refinished and a barrel reBlued - but Plastic never changes...it always looks cheap, highly functional, performs as needed but cheap - like bringing a Hooker to Family thanksgiving Dinner

Cheap? I see you haven’t bought any custom carbon fiber stocks.

A beautiful wood stock can always be refinished and a barrel reBlued - but Plastic never changes...it always looks cheap, highly functional, performs as needed but cheap - like bringing a Hooker to Family thanksgiving Dinner

I do have to ask how you know what it’s like to bring a hooker to thanksgiving dinner? What did your wife say?

 

[leslie hetrick]

you would have to kidnap me to get me into a .243 man bun convention. .243, to big for field mice, not big enough for large deer and not even in the running for anything bigger.

 

[Wheels]

WHEELS, you are either way over thinking this - or are Soooo BRILLIANT that my simple brain can’t even comprehend your post (likely the later).
SO here’s a question that i might at least be able to understand your answer: Are you collecting purely as an investment opportunity (to sell later at profit)? Or to own something unique, rare, and that you appreciate, enjoy, and take satisfaction “just owning it”?

You may be giving me too much credit. Sometimes I tend to overthink things. My OP basically outlines my thought process and how my mind works. This is not related to the firearms industry specifically but to a lifetime of watching markets boom/bust and trying to figure out the causation/ramification so I don't enter or exit at the wrong time. Part of my due diligence is seeking the opinions of those in the market. Some that know the market much better than myself and some that may just be part of the market.

Regarding firearms, I don't have an arsenal. Just a few utilitarian guns that were picked up over time to fill a need. I recently sold the only rifle that had any value. It was an old Jeffery. I need my firearms scoped these days and wasn't going to drill the action. A collector approached me, we made a fair deal and it has a new home where it will be used and appreciated.

Regarding AH, I am a hunter with a lifetime of love for Africa. Not really a firearms enthusiast.

I have been slowly stepping away from business and now have more time to commit to other things that interest me. Is fine firearms, a hobby I would like to take up. That is a question I am in the process of trying to determine. Have I always had a passion for guns, no, but it is something I already have a decent understanding of and could enjoy doing. Like most collectors however, I want my collection to go up in value, not drop. That being said I am open to another older, scoped, British or European 404J for personal use if I can find one for the right price. My OP however was dealing with firearms collecting in general. Is now still a decent time to enter the market or would this be a hobby better served to enter in a few years.

Thanks for your input.

 

[tarbe]

Apparently I'm completely wrong when it comes to the mighty Rolex Daytona. Google was listening and put this at the top of my feed this afternoon.

https://luxurylaunches.com/watches/rolex-daytona-falling-prices.php

LOL

I was so tempted....but I refrained!

 

[rookhawk]

ROOKHAWK, I like your prices quoted for that “VINTANGE Winchester Model 21 - $6000...where is it?? I’ve been looking for a 16 ga - Skeet Grade, 28” barrels, ejectors, single trigger, beavertail for-end, prince of whales grip, choked S1 & S2, with raised rib.....or same in 12ga 28” or 30” choked IC/M.
They ain’t hanging on every tree - at any price. Yes, it’s easy to find a Win.21 but condition & specifics, gauge, are what drive price. As far as CSMC - they make a quality gun but it is (and will always be) a “knock off” - highly functional, mechanically sound, beautiful - the “Cubic Zirconium” of Diamonds !

@HankBuck a tremendous amount of Model 21s sell from $3000-$6000 in good condition. A lot of terrible ones sell for the same prices as the good ones.

You mentioned two options above at vastly different scarcity / collector appeal.

A model 21 single trigger, beavertail forend, 28" barrels, ejectors, 12-gauge is easily had in that price.

But if you change the terms to a 26" vent rib 16 bore skeet model choked ws1/ws2, the price is quite a bit higher. (anything subgauge creates a price spike as you know)

My favorite model 21s are actually the ones that aren't valuable. Early models, double triggers, narrow forend, 12 bore, extractor guns. Real workhorses and thanks to the extractors, not heavy, avoiding the infamous pig-on-the-end-of-a-shovel metaphors. I've seen those go in good/excellent condition for less than three grand. Funnest to shoot, but not the ones that will develop investor level returns over the next ten years.

If you tell me your budget and exactly what you want, I could bird dog you any of the above for a modest amount to cover my time. (I know a few people that have them and may turn them over)

 

[BeeMaa]

LOL

I was so tempted....but I refrained!

Happy to admit if I get it wrong, but I appreciate your restraint and allowing me to find it for myself.