Trump has been teasing a big announcement next Tuesday.
Will he announce his bid for the Presidency.? Like many of us, Trump was probably expecting a red wave last night.
I would vote for Desantis in a heartbeat, but recent polls have shown that Desantis doesn't come close to Trumps popularity percentage.
Maybe that could change with last night's win by Desantis, and change the dynamic over the next 2 years.? Maybe Desantis wont even run?
What candidate could the Republicans parade, that would energize the voter base, and give us a solid chance of winning the 2024 Presidential election?
I don't see anyone outside of Trump that could pull it off.
If Republicans were smart (Which they aren't) they would get Trump elected in 2024, and then get Desantis elected in 2028, and 2032. 12 years of control of the Whitehouse.
Long shot? Absolutely, but not impossible.
Republicans don't have what it takes to make that happen. Not when you have swamp rats like Mitch McConnell manipulating the outcome of candidates that he doesn't endorse. McCarthy isn't much better.
I see things very differently.
Trump is very popular with the hardcore Republican voter, but then the hardcore Republican voter doesn't matter. They'll always turn out and vote R, even in the R candidate was literally a potato. Trump is also an excellent rallying cry to energize the hardcore Democrat base. He's every single thing they despise write large and heavily publicized. For every MAGA voter Trump gets to the polls, he forces at least as many D voters to rush there to spite him.
In addition, Trump is highly, highly undesirable to the more moderate swing voter, those who might actually vote for either party and therefore do matter and do need to be courted. After all, he lost to Biden, who's only one step away from a vegetable himself, and has failed badly in using his influence to secure seats for those whom he supports in 2022. He also burnt all his bridges during his term, demonstrating a complete and utter inability to garner any support from the center or even from his own party to strengthen his position. He's not even universally well liked on this forum, which is way, way more right wing than the overall nation. Doesn't that tell you something?
Once again, those swing voters are the ones who matter, they decide elections. Not the 30% of folks on either wing who will never, ever cross the aisle.
That being the case, I see a very good chance of the Reps winning in '24 with
any candidate. Except Trump. DeSantis looks solid, but 'a candidate who is not Donald, is relatively coherent (unlike Biden) and has the sense to know when to shut the hell up' is probably enough no matter who they are. This hasn't been a red wave like you may have hoped, but it does represent a moderate swing right, and considering 2 more years of Dem rule, the almost inevitable continued recession and the closeness of the last election, that should be plenty for an R victory in 2024.
If the Republicans were smart (which I agree, they aren't), they'd be hoping for Trump to either put his support and rhetoric behind a more palatable candidate who might actually win and hope that in doing so he can still invigorate his 30% base, or alternatively for Trump to outright die in the next 2 years so they can use him as a martyr for the campaign trial. Right now he's useless, if not outright obstructive, to the R's cause. There's at least an outside chance that he'll split the party as well as the vote and that'll mean the loss not just of 24, but probably 28 as well.
Think of it this way. You can do whatever you like ahead of 2024 to draw up support for the R's in South Dakota or Alabama, or the D's in California or Vermont. It changes nothing, because they were always going to go that way. Alabama would vote for Trump, they'd vote for De Santis, hell they'd probably vote for Max the Golden Retriever if he was the Republican party candidate. But a candidate from either party who can appeal to the Georgia, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania voters of this country will be president. Biden managed that in 2020 by running on a platform that boiled down to simply not being Trump, and he might yet do it again if given a chance.