My guess is that he is betting heavily on a strong first debate performance to make that case, but if that fails there, I do not see it as very likely that he will win.
Im honestly not sure that debates really matter anymore..
younger generations want small bites of information compiled from favorite sources.. whether left or right side voters, only a handful will watch or even care about the debates... their minds are already made up.. those handful that do watch will turn sound bites into memes which will then circulate through all of the common social media platforms.. but will largely be out of context... there will be a biden gaff meme... a trump is the devil meme... etc.. but none will really mean much of anything to anyone..
older generations are where the centrist D and centrist R largely are located.. I believe most of them have grown tired of everything.. many have reached a point of absolute apathy.. they get their news and information solely from the channels that support their personal beliefs/values/morals/ethics/etc and dont pay any attention to whats said anywhere else..
So Fox will present Trump as having trounced Biden when its all said and done.. and will further declare that the debate was rigged against him.. and people that want to believe that before the debate ever happened, will absolutely believe it afterwards because Brett Bayer or Tucker or Jesse said so...
MSNBC will declare Joe Biden as having destroyed Trump.. no matter that the actual truth is.. and proclaim that Trump had every advantage going into the debate possible and still lost.. and the people that want to believe that, will... because Tur or Ruhle said so...
and that will be the end of it...
Debates in the past have been a great way to compare and contrast candidates and let us all see and hear their positions and gain an understanding of who is quick witted, of sharp mind, of "presidential" appearance, etc and lets them dig into major issues and let us know where they stand and why...
Pre Twitter/X, Facebook, Instagram, Tik Tok, Linkedin, web forums, etc.. the debates were one of the few tools people could use to get to know their candidates...
Today you can literally watch hours upon hours upon hours of both current and historical actions, speeches, interactions, etc.. and review thousands upon thousands of pages of notes, memorandums, executive orders, legislation, court rulings, etc..etc.. daily on anyone youre interested in (not just presidential candidates) all at the touch of a button...
Those who are interested in the candidates already know who/what they are and who/what they stand for and what their personalities are (both good and bad traits)...
Those who arent interested.. well.. a debate wont change anything... they werent interested to begin with..
And for those who dont care about the actual candidates, but only care about the party position on things.. the debate doesnt change anything for them either...
Im afraid a debate these days really isnt anything other than more bread and circuses.. most Americans are just tuning in for the cheap entertainment value.. hoping Biden will say something truly stupid or stammer or stumble off the stage like a decrepit old man.. or hoping Trump will say something demeaning toward a moderator or the candidate so they can all wince and moan and further declare "see! orange man bad!"...
This isnt like Reagan - Carter where we actually hoped to learn something about one, or both candidates..
We already know everything we need to know...
This is just another opportunity to make fun of the other party...
I think the single biggest thing Trump can do at this point is very carefully choose his running mate.. nothing else from now forward will potentially change peoples minds or push those not otherwise willing to vote for him toward his camp/campaign..
I think (my opinion) the single biggest thing Joe Biden can do from this point forward is do what everyone already expects him to do.. go sit in the basement and shut up... stop giving R's ammunition to validate his inability to take a morning poop on his own, much less run a country..
There are very few undecideds left...
The fight from now forward is about motivating those who do support you to actually show up and vote... give them a reason to turn out in huge numbers... (whether that is "im awesome" or "the other guy sucks" really doesnt matter)..
We're not going to learn anything "new" at a debate.. its just going to be a mud slinging contest.. that we all walk away laughing (or crying) about..