Politics

[Altitude sickness]

I may be in the minority here. But I agree with Jerome Powell holding pat on interest rates. I think he is actually doing Trump a favor.

Trump has been verbally abusing Powell trying to force his hand. A lowering would immediately juice the market and economy. Which in the short term helps Trump. But if done at the wrong time creates too many dollars chasing products. (Inflation)

Oil prices may increase which also puts pressure on potential inflation.

Once inflation starts it’s like a brush fire. Very easy to get out of control and hard to get back under control. Interest rates can be lowered almost instantly. Inflation not so much.

Late summer would be a better time to lower rates.

Powell is possibly saving Trumps economy. But will not get credit for it.
If Russia ceases fire, the Big Beautiful Bill passes, and Israel/Iran doesn’t get out of control. After all that. Interest rates should be lowered. Then the economy will go on a tear. A lot of ifs there.

Powell should hold till he sees the whites of the economies eyes.

 

[skydiver386]

The Iranian Air Defense network seems to be having a hard time lately, but to an old hand that has studied China, it's no surprise.

Iran's NAGA Air Defenses were purchased in 2017 and are based off the Chinese JY10 system.

Mossad Officer #1: Iran just got new AA!
Mossad Officer #2: Where did Iran get them from?
Mossad Officer #1: They go them from China! Shall we infiltrate their logistical chain and sabotage these new systems?
Mossad Officer #2: From China? No, no need.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Until they reopened the front entrance and went back to work. I think substantial destruction of the machinery and software involved in the program would be required to really set back the effort significantly.

Without the B-2 delivered penetrators, the only other possibility would be some sort of ground assault, but the difficulties involved would be enormous. Like Desert One, during our failed hostage rescue attempt of April 1980, I would assume the Israelis would need a forward staging base somewhere inside Iran to refuel the helicopters that would deploy the assault troops. Unlike the embassy in Tehran, this target is extremely well defended. It will take a lot more than the 100-man Delta team planned for that mission. We could assume the IDF would swarm the target area with airstrikes, but we can also assume that the defenders would be Revolutionary Guard troops who if not nearly as capable as the IDF, could be counted upon to fight fanatically.

It would be a very hazardous undertaking.

It’s very likely that Mossad has highly and or strategically placed Iranian military and citizens and obviously close to Ali himself. They have been precise and deadly during the pager attack. And the latest decapitation of top military leadership.

4 days after Ali’s number two guy is taken out. Israel killed his replacement. That doesn’t happen with external intelligence only. Someone deeply rooted is involved.

So hopefully someone with access to the centrifuge facilities is working with Mossad. They see they are standing on the deck of a sinking ship and more and more people may jump in to help Israel.

Which is a best case scenario. An internal coup and regime change from Iranians. Not Israel or U.S.

This is most likely why Trump is allowing these plans to work. He can send B2’s anytime.

An internal coup is a much better outcome.

 

[skydiver386]

Until they reopened the front entrance and went back to work. I think substantial destruction of the machinery and software involved in the program would be required to really set back the effort significantly.

Without the B-2 delivered penetrators, the only other possibility would be some sort of ground assault, but the difficulties involved would be enormous. Like Desert One, during our failed hostage rescue attempt of April 1980, I would assume the Israelis would need a forward staging base somewhere inside Iran to refuel the helicopters that would deploy the assault troops. Unlike the embassy in Tehran, this target is extremely well defended. It will take a lot more than the 100-man Delta team planned for that mission. We could assume the IDF would swarm the target area with airstrikes, but we can also assume that the defenders would be Revolutionary Guard troops who if not nearly as capable as the IDF, could be counted upon to fight fanatically.

It would be a very hazardous undertaking.

To conduct an overt raid, I figured at least an IDF Battalion, and actions on target would be rough no doubt, but getting them there and back would be the real task.

If we take the raid at Entebbe as our example, 5 C-130's were used, other C&C aircraft flying overhead plus standby Medical teams nearby. Just over 100 IDF were on the ground during the raid. Kenya allowed the IDF to refuel in Nairobi.

For any raid inside Iran, there are no countries that would allow the IDF to refuel or rearm. Transporting an IDF Paratroop Battalion across Jordan, Syria , and Iraq by large, slow turboprop aircraft and helicopters would be an invitation to disaster.

A covert attack would be possible on a quiet night while your sentries are bored, smoking cigarettes and watching YouTube videos, but not while they are at a high state of readiness. Conducting this type of operation a few years ago would have been possible, but now? Fat chance!

With overt and covert ground attacks having low percentage shots at success, an air attack is all you have left, and I don't give that very high chances either.

The reason is although I understand how the MOAP works, I think to many in the west underestimate the construction of these facilities.

If there is ONE thing the Iranians do well, it's concrete and masonry work. They aren't just reinforcing the concrete with steel rebar, but with steel fiber, carbon fiber, and other high tech aggregates. Some of this stuff is so shock resistant, a block of M118 will barely scratch the paint.

Do NOT underestimate how difficult it will be to penetrate these facilities with a top attack.

Given the information I have, it would not surprise me if 6-8 such munitions would be required on each target. With the number of targets we currently know of, the entire fleet of Spirit bombers and nearly all of our inventory of these munitions would be expended.

If Trump authorizes such an attack, and even one aircraft and crew is lost, support for the President may turn sour.

Israel should have done it my way years ago.

 

[Brent in Az]

Coup, or not, the Iranians ability to manufacturer nuclear weapons needs to be eliminated forever.
There will always be a malevolent wannabe dictator looking to fill the void of other ousted leaders.

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[Brent in Az]

Iran stated that they will not come to Washington and grovel at the gates of the Whitehouse.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Skydiver, Israel would have loved to hit Iran a long time ago. But no U.S. president Dem or Republican would sanction a strike on the nukes. As you know Obama, Hillary and Biden used the same “Reset” button on Iran that worked so well on Putin.

Remember “the 1980s called and they want their foreign policy back”

He is thinking; I can’t believe this idiot thinks we are friends.

 

[mdwest]

To conduct an overt raid, I figured at least an IDF Battalion, and actions on target would be rough no doubt, but getting them there and back would be the real task.

I’m thinking you’re probably going to need a brigade, supported by armor and artillery…

The last credible source I read said Iran maintains an entire battalion of IRGC at Qoms plus substantial support personnel.

The Israelis would need to drop the entire 35th Parachute Brigade in there plus provide significant CAS and SOF support if they’re going to rapidly take down a battalion that’s entrenched in the defense, destroy the site, and get out of there before an Iranian mechanized division or two rolled up on them…

 

[Tanks]

Which is a best case scenario. An internal coup and regime change from Iranians. Not Israel or U.S.

I don't see this happening. Nothing brings a country together like an external threat. I have talked to number of Iranians with family still in Iran. Even the ones that hated the mullahs are supporting them now against Israel. One person I talked to talked about the Iraq-Iran war during his childhood how everyone joined together against a common enemy.
Remember, after 9/11 the whole country was united. Democrats and Republicans joined together against a common enemy.

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

I don't see this happening. Nothing brings a country together like an external threat. I have talked to number of Iranians with family still in Iran. Even the ones that hated the mullahs are supporting them now against Israel. One person I talked to talked about the Iraq-Iran war during his childhood how everyone joined together against a common enemy.
Remember, after 9/11 the whole country was united. Democrats and Republicans joined together against a common enemy.

While that’s true I think it will depend on how well the US and Israel keep restrict their attacks to Iranian government officials and military targets.

Iran, only recently, violently suppressed protests by the young, relatively sophisticated, population of the country. If air strikes are limited to only the legitimate military targets, I think this could bolster an internal demand for change. While I’m sure the Iranian propaganda machine will be in full swing, it is imperative that we don’t give them any real ammunition to use and we should aggressively be pointing out any fake information the regime publishes as soon as possible.

 

[Brent in Az]

Do what they did in Vietnam, and drop propaganda leaflets on the populations

 

[Altitude sickness]

They have been infiltrating Iran media for years. And sending that very message directly to Iranian citizens

 

[Ray B]

As for interest rates determining inflation- find a conservative professor, not one of those assembly line liberals. Money supply is the determining factor of inflation/deflation.

 

[rookhawk]

As for interest rates determining inflation- find a conservative professor, not one of those assembly line liberals. Money supply is the determining factor of inflation/deflation.

My biggest fear is that Trump goes interventionist on interest rates outside of the Fed. Prices are still high for homes, but new housing starts are at record lows and used inventory is climbing rapidly.

It would be a dumb idea to subsidize mortgage interest rates to spur demand. It would create artificial market forces and postpone a housing recession in the short run, it would make the depression worse in the long run.

Trump is a populist, not a Milton Friedman free market economist. It’s exactly the kind of thing Trump could do to undermine Fed policy using US tax dollars.

 

[skydiver386]

Skydiver, Israel would have loved to hit Iran a long time ago. But no U.S. president Dem or Republican would sanction a strike on the nukes. As you know Obama, Hillary and Biden used the same “Reset” button on Iran that worked so well on Putin.

Remember “the 1980s called and they want their foreign policy back”

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He is thinking; I can’t believe this idiot thinks we are friends.

True, but Israel will act independent of U.S. influence if they feel the need, then ask for forgiveness later.

On June 5, 1967 Israel gave Egypt one of the greatest crotch shots of all time, destroying a significant number of Egyptian Air Force aircraft on the ground. They didn't notify LBJ, and even ignored U.S. demands to stop their armored advance into Egyptian territory.

If I were Israel, I'd take the old Bing Crosby approach "Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies".

I love and support Israel, but they can be a bit of a wild card.

 

[bowjijohn]

Kipling

I suspect

Bing Crosby probably nicked it

Poetry By Heart

www.poetrybyheart.org.uk

 

[skydiver386]

Kipling

I suspect

Bing Crosby probably nicked it

Poetry By Heart

www.poetrybyheart.org.uk

Kipling, who IIRC got it from Charles Dickens.

In any case, Bing has a better singing voice than either.

 

[Red Leg]

Kipling, who IIRC got it from Charles Dickens.

In any case, Bing has a better singing voice than either.

I asked that Grok fellow - er thing.

The phrase "Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies" is often attributed to Oliver Goldsmith, an 18th-century Irish novelist, playwright, and poet. It appears in his 1773 play She Stoops to Conquer, specifically in Act III, where the character Tony Lumpkin says, "Ask me no questions, and I’ll tell you no fibs." The term "fibs" in this context is synonymous with "lies," and the phrase has since evolved into its more familiar modern form.

I suspect Cicero used a version of it at one time.

 

[cash_tx]

Just thinking out loud here, but if the chances of penetrating that facility are questionable, is there a scenario where Israel chooses to use their own nuclear device to destroy the defense forces on the surface at that facility and render the area uninhabitable (or at least the perception thereof)? I can image the international political consequences on Israel in the immediate aftermath; but aren't they accustomed to the haters, and could also claim the existential threat?