Politics

[Red Leg]

Yes they did. The Civil War has zero parallels to the terrorist regime of Iran.

Hezbollah at Irans behest and others have been killing innocents for decades.

Grant and Lee fought with rules with uniforms. With exception of possibly Sherman they followed basic rules of war.

General Sherman should have been charged with war crimes against combatants in the south and the Lakota.

I do not see a way that we can dictate a unconditional surrender upon to Iran. The only time we attempted it with warring states other than the Confederacy were Japan and Germany in WWII. Even then, and even after dropping two nuclear weapons, with respect to Japan we were forced to agree to the condition of allowing the imperial institution to continue rather than risk the enormous casualties of a forceful entry into Japan. Germany only surrendered when some 10.4 million allied troops were physically occupying the country.

Iran has a population of 90 million people. We can not invade, occupy, and dictate a peace to a nation of that size with our current active force plus our reserves. To remind, Germany had a population of just 69 million at the start of WWII and the US alone deployed 69 combat divisions to Europe after D-Day.

As it has been true since the dawn of the airplane, it is a pipe-dream to believe that we could force such a capitulation through air power alone. Israel just recently proved it again in Gaza.

We need to focus on destroying their nuclear capability - period.

 

[rookhawk]

I wonder if Iran is trying to move the contents of the underground uranium facility to a safer location?
Satellite imagery would confirm that.

I think sniffer drones can also pick up the radioactivity with high efficacy. Remember a few years ago when the Iranians were boasting they shot down our sniffer drone? Clearly we've been sending in recon drones for a long while.

Speaking of safer locations, 3 jumbo jets just landed in Muscat, Oman from Iran. MSM is speculating some of the regime or their family is getting out of the country. If the Ayatollah ditched the country, a successful Arab Spring might very well take place in Iran.

Persians are by far the most western-compatible Muslims I've ever met. I've never had a negative interaction with them and with regime change, Iran could be the next UAE-quality western ally. <fingers crossed>

 

[Red Leg]

On a side note as a would be pilot I wish I were......can you imagine piloting the aircraft at the very moment it suddenly became 30,000 pounds lighter with dropping the first bomb? And assuming that if the loaded with two bombs, each at the same distance from the front to back center line of the aircraft, what the increase in torque to the one side would be like?

And then repeat the process some short time later with the dropping of the 2nd? Not too many pilots in this world have experienced that I'd have to guess.

That plane has unique pilot control. No human is quick enough to fly a flying wing with those capabilities and ceiling - the control surfaces are getting constant minute inputs from the onboard computers. Yes the pilot is moving a control stick, but the actual movements are controlled electronically to conform to the pilots intent. The ultimate fly by wire.

 

[Altitude sickness]

I do not see a way that we can dictate a unconditional surrender upon to Iran. The only time we attempted it with warring states other than the Confederacy were Japan and Germany in WWII. Even then, and even after dropping two nuclear weapons, with respect to Japan we were forced to agree to the condition of allowing the imperial institution to continue rather than risk the enormous casualties of a forceful entry into Japan. Germany only surrendered when some 10.4 million allied troops were physically occupying the country.

Iran has a population of 90 million people. We can not invade, occupy, and dictate a peace to a nation of that size with our current active force plus our reserves. To remind, Germany had a population of just 69 million at the start of WWII and the US alone deployed 69 combat divisions to Europe after D-Day.

As it has been true since the dawn of the airplane, it is a pipe-dream to believe that we could force such a capitulation through air power alone. Israel just recently proved it again in Gaza.

We need to focus on destroying their nuclear capability - period.

I agree that the phrase Unconditional was not used correctly.

I took it to mean we or Israel would not be taking any demands from Ali Hosseini Khamenei

 

[Red Leg]

Im not an expert by any stretch... but have been talking to some senior USAF guys that know and understand how the platform works..

there's a reason the B2 actually carries 2 of these munitions.. its not so they can hit 2x targets.. its for exactly what you're describing.. they drop the first one on the target.. and then dump the second one in the hole created by the first MOP, thereby penetrating deeper..

the munition itself is a lot more complex than most understand.. its not just a big, heavy charge with a time delay on detonation.. it actually works in phases (very rapid phases) to clear space while its still penetrating and essentially creates a clean tunnel/channel all the way to the actual target... which then can be hit over and over again until the desired depth is reached..

Its got limitations.. but from what I understand the Iranian complexes arent outside the MOP capabilities.. deployed correctly it can get deep enough and they can take out the complex with just one sortie (although if I were a betting man, they'd be flying a 2-4 ship sortie and would be hitting the complex at multiple places to ensure absolute and complete destruction to the point that there is no way to ever repair the facility)..

That is accurate analysis. It would be good to know the exact depth of what matters at Fordow - I trust the Israelis have been able to get fairly accurate side elevation intel for targeting. The unclassified penetration depth is 200 feet of earth and rock. It will also penetrate 60 meters of reinforced concrete. A combination of the two, which I would assume Fordow is, would be something less than 200 feet. As you note, the bomb is accurate enough to be driven down the hole made by the first one.

There is also a question of how many the Air Force has purchased. The initial order to LMT/NOC was for 20 and that order was still being delivered as recently as seven years ago. I do not know if additional orders were placed and how many total were delivered. If I had to guess, we are right on the ragged edge of the feasibility curve assuming the need for multiple strikes to achieve each actual penetration.

My guess is the Air Force is confident of physical disruption but not necessarily destruction.

How does a bunker-buster bomb work? A closer look at the GBU-57

The 30,000 pound munition, equipped by the U.S. B-2 Spirit stealth bomber may be the only aerial bomb that can reach Iran's Fordow nuclear site.

www.usatoday.com

GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)

The MOP is a technology demonstration program funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency [DTRA] to develop a 30,000-pound conventional penetrating weapon that will defeat a specialized set of hard and deeply buried targets. The MOP is designed specifically to attack hardened concrete bunkers...

www.globalsecurity.org

 

[Brent in Az]

I was looking at the spec's of the B-2. It has a payload capacity of 40,000 lbs. with a full fuel load
Carrying 2 of the 30,000 lb MOP's would require a reduced fuel load.
What airbase would be strategically close enough to launch from in order to make the round trip with fuel reserves?

 

[Brent in Az]

I think sniffer drones can also pick up the radioactivity with high efficacy. Remember a few years ago when the Iranians were boasting they shot down our sniffer drone? Clearly we've been sending in recon drones for a long while.

Speaking of safer locations, 3 jumbo jets just landed in Muscat, Oman from Iran. MSM is speculating some of the regime or their family is getting out of the country. If the Ayatollah ditched the country, a successful Arab Spring might very well take place in Iran.

Persians are by far the most western-compatible Muslims I've ever met. I've never had a negative interaction with them and with regime change, Iran could be the next UAE-quality western ally. <fingers crossed>

Iran certainly has its share of Israeli and america hating zealots.
I imagine the bulk of the population are people who just want a normal peaceful life under reasonable leadership.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Brent, good question.

The sales brochure does say 40k payload but.

The U.S. Air Force has tested the B-2 and carried a total weight of 60,000 pounds when loaded with two MOPs, which is the weight of two 30,000-pound bombs.

 

[Red Leg]

I was looking at the spec's of the B-2. It has a payload capacity of 40,000 lbs. with a full fuel load
Carrying 2 of the 30,000 lb MOP's would require a reduced fuel load.
What airbase would be strategically close enough to launch from in order to make the round trip with fuel reserves?

I would bet serious dollars that the strike would indeed be launched from Diego Garcia. The distance to the area around Qom is 2,360 miles. The distance from Whiteman AFB (the B-2's home base) in Missouri to Qom is 6,876 miles. The B-2 fleet has carried out numerous non-stop missions to the Mideast flying directly from and returning to Whitman. Tankers provide to and from refueling. We typically would not risk a B-2 on an airfield not under total US control - we only have 20.

I suspect the critical path is actually the range from the start of Iranian air space to the target area at Qom. We are extremely unlikely to risk a tanker over Iranian airspace. That will dictate whether each plane is carrying one or two bombs.

 

[skydiver386]

If I didn't have any way to attack Iran's deep bunker from the air, how would I attack it from the ground?

It might seem all James Bond like to go deep into the ground and plant a few charges, but that's not going to solve our problems. Plus, getting down there and back out against even light opposition would be near impossible.

A better idea would be to use the Bunkers own systems against it. Elevator shafts are needed to bring equipment and personnel in and out, and ventilation shafts are needed to provide fresh air and exhaust stale air. I would expect there to be a minimum of 4 intake and 4 exhaust shafts, and any entrances to these shafts to be guarded and somewhat armored, but explosive breaching could provide access.

What could hide in plain sight, and be rapidly brought close to a target? A typical fuel tanker truck we see on the highway every day. Several of these within a few miles of the target would probably not raise any suspicion.

A typical fuel tanker truck has a capacity of 7500 gallons of diesel or gasoline. Mixed with certain fertilizer chemicals you get a slurry that could be dropped down every elevator and ventilation shaft. There are usually 4 separate fuel compartments on each trailer with its own separate drop hose capable of dropping the entire load in 7.5 to 8 minutes. Multiple trucks around each ventilation shaft could reduce time on target to less than 15 minutes total.

Tamping would not be an issue as there is over 1/4 of a mile of Terra Firma already over the charge/target area. Multiple time delay systems would be favored for lighting things off.

At slightly more than 6.5 pounds per gallon, 7500 gallons per truck, 10 such fuel trucks would give us a total charge weight of 487,500 pounds.

I think that would be a tough gig to pull off, but would be 100% decisive if successful. Ukraine just pulled off a mission deep into Russia with large tractor trailer trucks, so such things are possible.

...and now back to our regularly scheduled programming of relaxing Polka music by Frank Novak and the Cleveland Polka All Stars.

 

[Brent in Az]

Whitman to Iran is approx 25 hour round trip at a cruise speed of 560mph.
A long trip for the pilots.
Hope they have Coffee on board.....LOL.

 

[John Wasmuth]

Nope, no voter fraud at all,,,, nothing to see here, move along…..

Judge faces third-degree felony charges in Frio County voter harvesting case

SAN ANTONIO - A Frio County judge, accused of vote harvesting, is suspended without pay.Rochelle Camacho is among six people in Frio County arrested in the alle

news4sanantonio.com

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Whitman to Iran is approx 25 hour round trip at a cruise speed of 560mph.
A long trip for the pilots.
Hope they have Coffee on board.....LOL.

It’s Whiteman. Located near the thriving metropolis of Knobnoster, MO. The crew actually brings an air mattress and can get a nap, squeezed in behind the seats.

 

[rookhawk]

I would bet serious dollars that the strike would indeed be launched from Diego Garcia. The distance to the area around Qom is 2,360 miles. The distance from Whiteman AFB (the B-2's home base) in Missouri to Qom is 6,876 miles. The B-2 fleet has carried out numerous non-stop missions to the Mideast flying directly from and returning to Whitman. Tankers provide to and from refueling. We typically would not risk a B-2 on an airfield not under total US control - we only have 20.

I suspect the critical path is actually the range from the start of Iranian air space to the target area at Qom. We are extremely unlikely to risk a tanker over Iranian airspace. That will dictate whether each plane is carrying one or two bombs.

Didn’t we move six B-2s to Diego Garcia about a month ago? I remember reading a news article about this on Drudge Report and thought “hmm, they are planning for rapid deployment”.

Post script: here’s a link to the article. They put six of them in theater last April. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/02/middleeast/us-b2-bombers-diego-garcia-intl-hnk-ml

 

[franzfmdavis]

Iran certainly has its share of Israeli and america hating zealots.
I imagine the bulk of the population are people who just want a normal peaceful life under reasonable leadership.

As the son of an Iranian mother and American father who lived through the first act of the Iranian revolution, I can attest that every Iranian I am related to and am friends with (from people in their late 80’s to youth in their late teens) all want a different government in Iran and appreciate all the courage and sacrifice of those who are (hopefully) finally making it a reality.

While I was born an American citizen, I did not live in the US until I was seven years old and am so, so grateful for the opportunities and freedoms that this amazing country has provided for me, and my family and friends! With just a moderate amount of effort and ambition, I genuinely believe that any American citizen can achieve almost anything.

May God continue to bless and protect this great country!

 

[Ray B]

If the US doesn't want direct involvement with Iran- Fine; The US could rent a B-2 loaded with a full tank of gas and MOABs to the Israelis for a day or two. What they do with them is their business.

 

[mdwest]

If the US doesn't want direct involvement with Iran- Fine; The US could rent a B-2 loaded with a full tank of gas and MOABs to the Israelis for a day or two. What they do with them is their business.

The first problem with that plan is the transition program to qualify a pilot on the B2 is very intense and lasts 6 months…

It is a very complicated aircraft..

The second problem is most of the systems require a TS-SCI clearance just to be in the same room with them…

There’s a reason we sell F35’s to other countries but don’t sell B2’s…

We aren’t exposing anyone else to the systems, tools, and many of the weapons systems the B2 utilizes.. not even our closest allies…

And the Israelis, while we have similar strategic interests when it comes to the Middle East, aren’t exactly good or loyal friends to the US… they certainly aren’t getting in the cockpit… or the bomb bays… or even the avionics on that airframe..

 

[fourfive8]

As the son of an Iranian mother and American father who lived through the first act of the Iranian revolution, I can attest that every Iranian I am related to and am friends with (from people in their late 80’s to youth in their late teens) all want a different government in Iran and appreciate all the courage and sacrifice of those who are (hopefully) finally making it a reality.

While I was born an American citizen, I did not live in the US until I was seven years old and am so, so grateful for the opportunities and freedoms that this amazing country has provided for me, and my family and friends! With just a moderate amount of effort and ambition, I genuinely believe that any American citizen can achieve almost anything.

May God continue to bless and protect this great country!

Good words and much appreciated! About 1980, in a previous life, I got to know one of the Pahlavi family here in the US at a non-political level. Very pro-Western, pro-American. I wish the best for all those involved and the chance for positive internal change.

 

[WAB]

If I didn't have any way to attack Iran's deep bunker from the air, how would I attack it from the ground?

It might seem all James Bond like to go deep into the ground and plant a few charges, but that's not going to solve our problems. Plus, getting down there and back out against even light opposition would be near impossible.

A better idea would be to use the Bunkers own systems against it. Elevator shafts are needed to bring equipment and personnel in and out, and ventilation shafts are needed to provide fresh air and exhaust stale air. I would expect there to be a minimum of 4 intake and 4 exhaust shafts, and any entrances to these shafts to be guarded and somewhat armored, but explosive breaching could provide access.

What could hide in plain sight, and be rapidly brought close to a target? A typical fuel tanker truck we see on the highway every day. Several of these within a few miles of the target would probably not raise any suspicion.

A typical fuel tanker truck has a capacity of 7500 gallons of diesel or gasoline. Mixed with certain fertilizer chemicals you get a slurry that could be dropped down every elevator and ventilation shaft. There are usually 4 separate fuel compartments on each trailer with its own separate drop hose capable of dropping the entire load in 7.5 to 8 minutes. Multiple trucks around each ventilation shaft could reduce time on target to less than 15 minutes total.

Tamping would not be an issue as there is over 1/4 of a mile of Terra Firma already over the charge/target area. Multiple time delay systems would be favored for lighting things off.

At slightly more than 6.5 pounds per gallon, 7500 gallons per truck, 10 such fuel trucks would give us a total charge weight of 487,500 pounds.

I think that would be a tough gig to pull off, but would be 100% decisive if successful. Ukraine just pulled off a mission deep into Russia with large tractor trailer trucks, so such things are possible.

...and now back to our regularly scheduled programming of relaxing Polka music by Frank Novak and the Cleveland Polka All Stars.

I actually was thinking that expanding foam/expoxy in every shaft/penetration would be pretty effective if you could pull it off. A long slow death for those trapped inside, but you would basically seal it for eternity.

 

[Red Leg]

I actually was thinking that expanding foam/expoxy in every shaft/penetration would be pretty effective if you could pull it off. A long slow death for those trapped inside, but you would basically seal it for eternity.

Until they reopened the front entrance and went back to work. I think substantial destruction of the machinery and software involved in the program would be required to really set back the effort significantly.

Without the B-2 delivered penetrators, the only other possibility would be some sort of ground assault, but the difficulties involved would be enormous. Like Desert One, during our failed hostage rescue attempt of April 1980, I would assume the Israelis would need a forward staging base somewhere inside Iran to refuel the helicopters that would deploy the assault troops. Unlike the embassy in Tehran, this target is extremely well defended. It will take a lot more than the 100-man Delta team planned for that mission. We could assume the IDF would swarm the target area with airstrikes, but we can also assume that the defenders would be Revolutionary Guard troops who if not nearly as capable as the IDF, could be counted upon to fight fanatically.

It would be a very hazardous undertaking.