This is not even a point of debate in DOD. It was a theory being flogged by MacGregor and other Russian apologists (or embarrassed TV military analysts) to explain away some of the early Russian failures around Kiev - just wait till the real Russian Army arrives, etc. Even the Russian military bloggers have long ago moved on from that pipe dream. You can see it for yourself if you go to the Oryx website and just look at the tank kills. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1Thank you @Red Leg for your detailed response. I asked you the question due to a discussion we had at work, and some military individuals believing that the Russians were not using their most up to date equipment and soldiers.
Our unclassified estimate was that Russia had approximately 8,000 tanks of which approximately 2,500 were modernized in some form. These are primarily T-72 and T-80 variants of one form or another and a few later production T-90's. Most of the older inventory is sitting around (and has been sitting around for thirty to forty years) in open air storage with little if any maintenance. Go park your D4 dozer or tractor for thirty years in the rain and snow, and see how ready it is for a job.
In any case, Oryx only counts photo or video confirmed kills. As of this morning, they list 1419 destroyed or captured Russian tanks - the vast majority of which are their modernized inventory. These numbers do not capture the destruction of tanks in areas not filmed in some way. I would guess the count is at least 25% higher and perhaps significantly more. The list also does not count losses to maintenance and lack of spare parts. What this tells us is that Russia committed its most modern and best equipped formations to the war in Ukraine from day 1, and those formations have been brutally degraded. It is why the net is now full of video clips of trains arriving in western Russia loaded with T62 tanks that have been cannibalized from those older tanks in the storage yards. These are sixty year old weapon systems. They don't even have laser range finders, much less night vision. The newly mobilized soldiers are getting a few days orientation and then are thrown into the fight against world class NATO anti-tank guided missiles and Russia's own modernized tanks now manned by highly trained, experienced and motivated Ukrainian troops.
I believe many Russians have convinced themselves this wave of outdated equipment and untrained soldiers will turn the tide. I think it is far more likely to be a bloodbath.
Last edited:
