Politics

The RN blowing up gas pipes?

No way would they do such a thing, thus reducing the likelihood of the German left wing Gov backtracking on their support for the Ukrainians in return for the gas supplies being switched back on this winter

Nothing to see here folks

Move along
 
Man you hate the Ruskies Red Leg, its a real pure deep down hatred, may cause a biased opinion
l do appreciate the response seeing that you are happy to explain - ignorance, wilful or otherwise
Wow are you off base! Anyone who knows him cannot possibly associate those traits with the man. Perhaps a deep understanding of cultures based on an educated, studied, and long term experienced base of information and knowledge.

And yes Perhaps some joy in seeing an old adversary who is showing itself to have been a bit of a puffed up peacock versus a bear;)
 
Man you hate the Ruskies Red Leg, its a real pure deep down hatred, may cause a biased opinion
l do appreciate the response seeing that you are happy to explain - ignorance, wilful or otherwise
and it is especially pleasing that you got so many LOL's added in, LOL, l always like to see people happy in what they are doing LOL, to be honest l haven't had such a good laugh for ages and you were having a really good time writing it out
as l said it looks like we will be seeing drone wars LOL
but anyway
one thing l would like to take a little further is your explanation of "the cross", l can see an argument for using a symbol that identifies you to friendly fire and could even see an argument for using a symbol to stick it up the Russian propaganda machine that is painting your side as nazi"s and claims it is de-nazifying the country
but yea naaaa the Ukrainians are not using the official emblem of Ukraine's armed forces that includes the countries coat of arms in the centre that was adopted in September 2009

6DPXzQe.jpg


the Cossack cross you talk about, The isosceles cross is an important part of the symbolism of the Ukrainian state, and it dates back to Cossack times. It was part of the coat of arms of the founder of the first Cossack Sich, Dmytro Vyshnevetsky, also known as Baida. It was located on the flag of the Zaporozhian Sich in the form of a white isosceles cross, the arms of which widen at the ends.

ppnRmj5.png


A very similar cross can also be seen on the Cossack flag from the mid-seventeenth century.

KTyGDOX.jpg


l cannot see in any of the photo's ect... an attempt at widening at the ends of the arms of the cross's anywhere
l also cannot see an explanation for the use of the Wehrmacht Balkenkreuz symbol used as it is nothing like the Cossack cross or the official emblem of Ukraine's armed forces

dmXOyzb.png


l dont see using the cross as the Ukrainian's being seriously nazi, my point was that Ukraine being the "good guys" wouldn't it be better not to attract a bad image but l do see the humour in it as l have seen posts on here where the Russians were described as "the Commies" and then "Nazi's"
now that is something to LOL about dont you think
So let us try to have a serious discussion about this. I admit I reacted to the "LOL" in your post that responded directly to me. I find it a particularly annoying acronym. It seems to have annoyed you as well.

You do not know me at all, so allow me a few lines to describe my personal appreciation of "Russians." I italicized the term because Russia is really the last pre-20th century empire made up of a host of ethnic minorities - most still held in thrall to European Russia's military and security might. Most of the Russians with whom I have dealt professionally or personally over the last fifty years were Great or White Russians - modern European Russians or Ukrainians. I have found them professionally and personally interesting, often likeable, and occasionally annoying - particularly when drunk.

What I actually hate is how first the Communist regime and now Putin's dictatorial oligarchy have taken the worst aspects of Russian history and culture - totalitarian single-man (or woman - let's give Catherine her due) rule, apathetic and largely obedient populations, centralized economic control and centralized profit, and made them the defining characteristics of the modern Russian state. I am likely wrong, but one potentially positive outcome of the current fiasco Putin has created is to give the Russian people one last chance to create a government that works in their collective interests rather than their collective exploitation.

First to the cross marking. If I over simplify this, please tell me. But I also do not know you or your professional understanding of military operations. The profession of arms has been my trade my whole life, and I sometimes assume people understand fundamental things which they would have no way of actually knowing.

The Ukrainian Army began marking their vehicles shortly before initiating offensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson. Up to that point, they had been fighting a purely defensive campaign. Any mechanized formations moving toward their defensive positions were clearly Russian elements and could be safely engaged with anti-tank weapons or artillery with little likelihood of fratricide.

Offensive operations are far more complex and inherently confused. Units become intermingled on the battlefield and the chance of fratricide increases dramatically. This is particularly so where both sides are using the same basic vehicles. It is why Russian forces were ordered to mark their vehicles with a large letter "Z" before initiating their offensive against Ukraine. Coalition forces during the First Gulf War did the same thing, marking all of those vehicles (which included Syrian T72's!) with a "Delta" symbol.

For Ukraine, the situation has become exacerbated over the last several months as fully half the Ukrainian armor strength, both tanks and armored fighting vehicles are now captured Russian weapon systems. More the shame on NATO for not providing them with the Leopard 2 and Marder - but I digress.

In the middle of ongoing combat operations, the friendly symbol needs to be applied quickly by the crew in a field expedient way. There is neither the time nor need to send out stencils and professional painters. Two quick swipes with white paint solves the requirement. It is also a marking that is significantly different than the three most used by Russian units - "Z," "V," and "O." The fact that it harkens to the nation's symbiology is a bonus - were it even a consideration which I frankly doubt.

With respect to drone wars, we are watching Ukraine's efforts very closely. Their real revolutionary use is with regard to artillery observation. Simply adjusting rounds onto a target by a drone (or a manned aircraft) is difficult. Saying short/long/left or right is meaningless to the firing battery unless the observer knows the relationship between the target, impacting round, and gun target line. That situational awareness is difficult to manage with a six-inch screen and a commercial UAV with neither GPS nor a laser designator. Yet, they perfected it in the first months of the war.

They are now employing large numbers of GPS guided munitions - both rockets like the GMLRS and artillery rounds like the 155 mm Excalibur. These rounds have unclassified sub - 5 meter accuracy. Such accurate munitions require equally accurate targeting or it defeats the purpose of the accurate munition. The targets for GMLRS (the munition fired in HIMARS) are fairly easy to determine. Bridging, depots, and rail yards are fixed sites and easily and accurately geolocated. But doing the same thing to a tank or armored fighting vehicle that pauses along a wood line is a wholly different and far more difficult challenge.

Ukraine is scoring remarkably consistent one shot kills on tanks and AFVs marrying these commercial drones with their smart munition stockpiles. They seemingly have successfully adapted mapping software, satellite communications, and responsive firing units in a way that is both professionally admirable and at the same time cautionary to those militaries closely watching this campaign. The Russian Army, on the other hand, seems mired in WWI / II mass firing TTPs that achieve little real damage to anything other than cityscapes while making targets of their own firing units.

Finally, I believe Putin's ambitions for a revitalized and aggressive Russian Empire represent an existential threat to the Western democracies. I believe the comparisons to Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1938 are overwhelmingly obvious and valid. I have posted this quote before, but Churchill's prescient remarks as he watched Chamberlain cravenly set the stage for the coming World War are as valid today as they were then. "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile — hoping it will eat him last." We should be doing more to aide Ukraine - not less.
 
Last edited:
So let us try to have a serious discussion about this. I admit I reacted to the "LOL" in your post that responded directly to me. I find it a particularly annoying acronym. It seems to have annoyed you as well.

You do not know me at all, so allow me a few lines to describe my personal appreciation of "Russians." I italicized the term because Russia is really the last pre-20th century empire made up of a host of ethnic minorities - most still held in thrall to European Russia's military and security might. Most of the Russians with whom I have dealt professionally or personally over the last fifty years were Great or White Russians - modern European Russians or Ukrainians. I have found them professionally and personally interesting, often likeable, and occasionally annoying - particularly when drunk.

What I actually hate is how first the Communist regime and now Putin's dictatorial oligarchy have taken the worst aspects of Russian history and culture - totalitarian single-man (or woman - let's give Catherine her due) rule, apathetic and largely obedient populations, centralized economic control and centralized profit, and made them the defining characteristics of the modern Russian state. I am likely wrong, but one potentially positive outcome of the current fiasco Putin has created is to give the Russian people one last chance to create a government that works in their collective interests rather than their collective exploitation.

First to the cross marking. If I over simplify this, please tell me. But I also do not know you or your professional understanding of military operations. The profession of arms has been my trade my whole life, and I sometimes assume people understand fundamental things which they would have no way of actually knowing.

The Ukrainian Army began marking their vehicles shortly before initiating offensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson. Up to that point, they had been fighting a purely defensive campaign. Any mechanized formations moving toward their defensive positions were clearly Russian elements and could be safely engaged with anti-tank weapons or artillery with little likelihood of fratricide.

Offensive operations are far more complex and inherently confused. Units become intermingled on the battlefield and the chance of fratricide increases dramatically. This is particularly so where both sides are using the same basic vehicles. It is why Russian forces were ordered to mark their vehicles with a large letter "Z" before initiating their offensive against Ukraine. Coalition forces during the First Gulf War did the same thing, marking all of those vehicles (which included Syrian T72's!) with a "Delta" symbol.

For Ukraine, the situation has become exacerbated over the last several months as fully half the Ukrainian armor strength, both tanks and armored fighting vehicles are now captured Russian weapon systems. More the shame on NATO for not providing them with the Leopard 2 and Marder - but I digress.

In the middle of ongoing combat operations, the friendly symbol needs to be applied quickly by the crew in a field expedient way. There is neither the time nor need to send out stencils and professional painters. Two quick swipes with white paint solves the requirement. It is also a marking that is significantly different than the three most used by Russian units - "Z," "V," and "O." The fact that it harkens to the nation's symbiology is a bonus - were it even a consideration which I frankly doubt.

With respect to drone wars, we are watching Ukraine's efforts very closely. Their real revolutionary use is with regard to artillery observation. Simply adjusting rounds onto a target by a drone (or a manned aircraft) is difficult. Saying short/long/left or right is meaningless to the firing battery unless the observer knows the relationship between the target, impacting round, and gun target line. That situational awareness is difficult to manage with a six-inch screen and a commercial UAV with neither GPS nor a laser designator. Yet, they perfected it in the first months of the war.

They are now employing large numbers of GPS guided munitions - both rockets like the GMLRS and artillery rounds like the 155 mm Excalibur. These rounds have unclassified sub - 5 meter accuracy. Such accurate munitions require equally accurate targeting or it defeats the purpose of the accurate munition. The targets for GMLRS (the munition fired in HIMARS) are fairly easy to determine. Bridging, depots, and rail yards are fixed sites and easily and accurately geolocated. But doing the same thing to a tank or armored fighting vehicle that pauses along a wood line is a wholly different and far more difficult challenge.

Ukraine is scoring remarkably consistent one shot kills on tanks and AFVs marrying these commercial drones with their smart munition stockpiles. They seemingly have successfully adapted mapping software, satellite communications, and responsive firing units in a way that is both professionally admirable and at the same time cautionary to those militaries closely watching this campaign. The Russian Army, on the other hand, seems mired in WWI / II mass firing TTPs that achieve little real damage to anything other than cityscapes while making targets of their own firing units.

Finally, I believe Putin's ambitions for a revitalized and aggressive Russian Empire represent an existential threat to the Western democracies. I believe the comparisons to Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1938 are overwhelmingly obvious and valid. I have posted this quote before, but Churchill's prescient remarks as he watched Chamberlain cravenly set the stage for the coming World War are as valid today as they were then. "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile — hoping it will eat him last." We should be doing more to aide Ukraine - not less.
Thank you once again Joe. I love reading these rational and informative posts. Many of my friends and folks of mostly similar Political persuasion seem to feel we should not be helping Ukraine. I am a very amateur history buff. I have also had some professional dealings with Russian folks including a very interesting Cossack whom I sponsored on an H1B visa and has ultimately gained a Green Card. And a young man who is the grandson of a White Russian had everything taken from him and was deported to Siberia by the communists.... And I've dealt with a few other Russians. Like peole everywhere, there are good and bad traits but at the time (some 20 years ago) there was still too much of the thinking that prevailed under communism. I got a call one time from an official in charge of the exchange program i was involved with, he called to reprimand me for calling a program participant a Fucking Russian.... I calmly explained i did no such thing... I had called the guy a Fucking communist! And I stood by that and told that official to get him off my farm and send him back. Of course I've met American citizens who are Fucking Communists also;)

I could not agree more with your summation.
 
Last edited:
A friend sent this video of Ukrainians using the latest Javelins to destroy a tank column.

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/55/05/7C021B2E-9DD6-4C66-8457-69CFA2F13772/Javelins%20at%20work.mov
 
Finally, I believe Putin's ambitions for a revitalized and aggressive Russian Empire represent an existential threat to the Western democracies. I believe the comparisons to Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1938 are overwhelmingly obvious and valid. I have posted this quote before, but Churchill's prescient remarks as he watched Chamberlain cravenly set the stage for the coming World War are as valid today as they were then. "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile — hoping it will eat him last." We should be doing more to aide Ukraine - not less.

Hmm.. I am a bit confused by this statement.. How is Russia's current threat to the West the same as Hitler's was to Europe in 1938 given what you yourself has admitted in that Russia has turned out to be more of a paper tiger rather than the military superpower that they were feared to be? I agree that Russia's military has been embarrassed on the conventional battlefield, but let's not forget about the hole card that Putin can still play which results in WW3.

The fact that Brandon is so weak and feckless might ironically be the only thing keeping us from a nuclear escalation with Russia should Putin play that card even in the form of a dirty bomb under a false flag. But I still don't want to bet my life and future on what a senile imbecile and an increasingly desperate dictator may or may not do.. Do you?

Also, what more do you think the US should be doing for Ukraine that won't result in direct military conflict between the US and Russia albeit that this is looking more and more like a foregone conclusion?
 
Last edited:
Sending billions of dollars of modern weapons and tech to Ukraine in (and some before) 2022 is hardly the same as Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s.

Results so far have been a bit different as well, btw.
 
This isn’t an appeasement situation like we had with Chamberlain and the Munich agreement.

The western governments who were very fearful that the Russians would blitz Ukraine and then continue to the Baltic coast made the decision to let the Ukrainians die to defend the NATO frontier.

In ww2 terms this would have been like chamberlain and France backing Czechoslovakia and letting them fight it out with Hitler. No Munich agreement.

I don’t know the solution for Ukraine but I know one thing for sure the blood bath must stop. This is a war which neither side will win.

I know everyone is worried about the use of nuclear weapons but in realistic terms those are off the table. Their mere existence is what keeps Putin in power and creates a situation where the western powers want Putin to stay in power. If Russia were to collapse the largest nuclear arsenal would be up for the highest bidder. Just like when the USSR collapsed the western nations paid to keep up the security of the nuclear sites.

One last thought Russia won’t use nuclear weapons because the winds blow from Ukraine east toward Russia. This means Russia would attack itself basically. Unless Putin truely is the madman we have been made to believe then nuclear weapons won’t be used.
 
Hmm.. I am a bit confused by this statement.. How is Russia's current threat to the West the same as Hitler's was to Europe in 1938 given what you yourself has admitted in that Russia has turned out to be more of a paper tiger rather than the military superpower that they were feared to be? I agree that Russia's military has been embarrassed on the conventional battlefield, but let's not forget about the hole card that Putin can still play which results in WW3.
I have no other arguments to offer you on this point.

Also, what more do you think the US should be doing for Ukraine that won't result in direct military conflict between the US and Russia albeit that this is looking more and more like a foregone conclusion?
Leopard 2 MBTs, Marder IFVs, and F-16 or F-17 aircraft. The former will take six-eight months to get into the field in meaningful numbers, the latter a year. This war will indeed end at the negotiating table if for no other reason Ukraine can't dictate peace in the Kremlin. Currently, Putin has announced he is "willing" to negotiate with "conditions." If I am right, in three to six-months, particularly with a rearmed Ukraine on the near horizon, he will be begging to negotiate. Ukraine then will be far more likely to achieve a negotiated outcome that is in its and NATO's best interests.

The wild card is that the Russian Army could indeed collapse at any moment this winter. I see little point in ensuring that it doesn't.
 
Man you hate the Ruskies Red Leg, its a real pure deep down hatred, may cause a biased opinion
l do appreciate the response seeing that you are happy to explain - ignorance, wilful or otherwise
and it is especially pleasing that you got so many LOL's added in, LOL, l always like to see people happy in what they are doing LOL, to be honest l haven't had such a good laugh for ages and you were having a really good time writing it out
as l said it looks like we will be seeing drone wars LOL
but anyway
one thing l would like to take a little further is your explanation of "the cross", l can see an argument for using a symbol that identifies you to friendly fire and could even see an argument for using a symbol to stick it up the Russian propaganda machine that is painting your side as nazi"s and claims it is de-nazifying the country
but yea naaaa the Ukrainians are not using the official emblem of Ukraine's armed forces that includes the countries coat of arms in the centre that was adopted in September 2009

6DPXzQe.jpg


the Cossack cross you talk about, The isosceles cross is an important part of the symbolism of the Ukrainian state, and it dates back to Cossack times. It was part of the coat of arms of the founder of the first Cossack Sich, Dmytro Vyshnevetsky, also known as Baida. It was located on the flag of the Zaporozhian Sich in the form of a white isosceles cross, the arms of which widen at the ends.

ppnRmj5.png


A very similar cross can also be seen on the Cossack flag from the mid-seventeenth century.

KTyGDOX.jpg


l cannot see in any of the photo's ect... an attempt at widening at the ends of the arms of the cross's anywhere
l also cannot see an explanation for the use of the Wehrmacht Balkenkreuz symbol used as it is nothing like the Cossack cross or the official emblem of Ukraine's armed forces

dmXOyzb.png


l dont see using the cross as the Ukrainian's being seriously nazi, my point was that Ukraine being the "good guys" wouldn't it be better not to attract a bad image but l do see the humour in it as l have seen posts on here where the Russians were described as "the Commies" and then "Nazi's"
now that is something to LOL about dont you think
Russia invaded Ukraine. They promised they wouldn't, they lied and said they were not going to. They did. Now they must accept what comes with that, crow does not taste good, but eat it they must.
 
I know everyone is worried about the use of nuclear weapons but in realistic terms those are off the table. Their mere existence is what keeps Putin in power and creates a situation where the western powers want Putin to stay in power. If Russia were to collapse the largest nuclear arsenal would be up for the highest bidder. Just like when the USSR collapsed the western nations paid to keep up the security of the nuclear sites.

This assumption that nuclear weapons are off the table is based on what analysis exactly? With all due respect to your right to have an opinion, I disagree wholeheartedly. Given the current geopolitical climate and who is leading us, nothing is off the table..

Furthermore, Russia does not need to collapse to replace Putin.

One last thought Russia won’t use nuclear weapons because the winds blow from Ukraine east toward Russia. This means Russia would attack itself basically. Unless Putin truely is the madman we have been made to believe then nuclear weapons won’t be used.

The relevant question is not if Putin is a madman... The question is how desperate will he get? It's a mistake to confuse aggression and desperation with madness. Do I think Putin would launch a full scale nuclear attack on the West? Not terribly likely at least at this point. As alluded to, his objective is to retake what were former Soviet States and reassemble the former Soviet union. If he destroys the world, what's the point? However, Putin doesn't need to be an all-out madman to contemplate using limited nuclear warfare at some point especially considering the war he started is not going his way and he is running out of options. If his actions are any indication of his thought process up to this point, I don't think he has any problem whatsoever with any collateral damage a dirty bomb or limited tactical weapon may have on his own people. He is already sending thousands of Russian conscripts to the front as cannon fodder.

One would be naïve to believe that Putin is not analyzing every possible scenario where he can deploy a tactical limited nuclear weapon and get away with it. It's not madness to gamble in that regard knowing the current POTUS is the weakest and most incompetent to ever occupy the WH.. My fear is not that Brandon will not react, but overreact.. Yet either way we all lose.. And therein lies the problem with having a weak and feckless POTUS. That kind of weakness and incompetence emboldens desperate men and baits them to take chances. Putin's decision to invade Ukraine after Brandon took office was no coincidence.. I firmly beleive that if Putin does indeed take actions to escalate this war toward direct US participation, it would be based off that gamble of weakness, not madness.. Regardless, I'm certain over the ages lots of smart leaders were speculating incorrectly at what desperate men might or might not do when they have few options left.
 
Sending billions of dollars of modern weapons and tech to Ukraine in (and some before) 2022 is hardly the same as Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s.

Results so far have been a bit different as well, btw.

We seem oddly reluctant to supply long range offensive weaponry and aircraft. Personally, I think we should provide Ukraine with the capability to take the fight right to the steps of the Kremlin. Let Putin have a taste of his own medicine.
 
We seem oddly reluctant to supply long range offensive weaponry and aircraft. Personally, I think we should provide Ukraine with the capability to take the fight right to the steps of the Kremlin. Let Putin have a taste of his own medicine.

What you suggest will likely put the US in direct conflict with Russia... You are of course entitled to have your viewpoint, but I would ask you the same direct question of everyone in favor of extended US involvement and/or escalation in this war which is how specifically does the USA benefit from this?

And yes, I get the "Russia is an existential threat' argument, and I would agree and add that so is China, Iran, and North Korea... But, what I have yet to hear from any politician, pundit, or so-called expert is how is our direct involvement in the Ukraine/Russian war would make the USA safer, or more secure in real time? I'm not trying to be facetious.. I'm not an isolationist and I am certainly not opposed to defending our country from foreign invaders or attackers on their soil. I'm genuinely trying to understand the justification for risking more US lives or possibly human existence as we know it in this particular conflict at this moment in history? For me, to get on board it needs to be a more detailed justification listing specific threats and dangers beyond an "existential threat"..

And, if these detailed threats do indeed justify the need for further US involvement, I would also need to know the plan including an end-game and exit strategy better than the one we had in Afghanistan. If anyone thinks that this current government is capable of providing any of this above, I have some beautiful waterfront property for sale on the west coast of Florida that you might be interested in...
 
This assumption that nuclear weapons are off the table is based on what analysis exactly? With all due respect to your right to have an opinion, I disagree wholeheartedly. Given the current geopolitical climate and who is leading us, nothing is off the table..

Furthermore, Russia does not need to collapse to replace Putin.



The relevant question is not if Putin is a madman... The question is how desperate will he get? It's a mistake to confuse aggression and desperation with madness. Do I think Putin would launch a full scale nuclear attack on the West? Not terribly likely at least at this point. As alluded to, his objective is to retake what were former Soviet States and reassemble the former Soviet union. If he destroys the world, what's the point? However, Putin doesn't need to be an all-out madman to contemplate using limited nuclear warfare at some point especially considering the war he started is not going his way and he is running out of options. If his actions are any indication of his thought process up to this point, I don't think he has any problem whatsoever with any collateral damage a dirty bomb or limited tactical weapon may have on his own people. He is already sending thousands of Russian conscripts to the front as cannon fodder.

One would be naïve to believe that Putin is not analyzing every possible scenario where he can deploy a tactical limited nuclear weapon and get away with it. It's not madness to gamble in that regard knowing the current POTUS is the weakest and most incompetent to ever occupy the WH.. My fear is not that Brandon will not react, but overreact.. Yet either way we all lose.. And therein lies the problem with having a weak and feckless POTUS. That kind of weakness and incompetence emboldens desperate men and baits them to take chances. Putin's decision to invade Ukraine after Brandon took office was no coincidence.. I firmly beleive that if Putin does indeed take actions to escalate this war toward direct US participation, it would be based off that gamble of weakness, not madness.. Regardless, I'm certain over the ages lots of smart leaders were speculating incorrectly at what desperate men might or might not do when they have few options left.
My assumption about nuclear weapons is based on many different factors and from many different sources. I respect and understand your opinion and I think that Putin could use nuclear weapons, but I have not heard any realistic targets or reasons for tactical nuclear weapons. The only targets I have heard of and can think of would not be tactical nuclear usage. The only targets that the Russians realistically might target are strategic, tactical battlefield usage would have a minimal effect based on how the war is going currently.

What is the greatest threat to the Russian military and victory in the conflict? The mass numbers of western weapons coming into the country. Ukraine cannot fight a prolonged war without western weapons shipments. Targets like Lviv would make sense because that is the rally point for all weapons and supplies arriving in the country. The Russians would want to hit logistics centers and industrial areas. Much like how Ukraine is using HIMARS against Russian logistics centers. Strategic targets not tactical.

I think that the continuation of the war will only increase the risk of a nuclear strike. While Putin could use nuclear strikes on the battlefield this would have little effect on a widely spread battlefield. It could be used the create an opening for an armored thrust which is in line with cold war doctrine. But this would require multiple warheads due to the width of the battlefield.

In my analysis personally, I don't keep nuclear weapons out but due to my analysis and the information I have gathered my opinion is nuclear weapon usage is highly unlikely if not off the table currently. This is the way the Russians keep reaching for a reason to justify their usage to their people and the world. That door has not been opened. If Putin feels his regime is at risk then I think he may resort to nuclear weapons.

At the end of the day, the war needs to end. Unfortunately, neither side seems to want to end the war without the ability to walk away with honor. The one belligerent who refuses to offer honor to the other is Ukraine. They have been emboldened by western support to demand total victory. While they have the right to demand all their nation back from the invader, this means we are walking a thin line.
 
And therein lies the problem with having a weak and feckless POTUS. That kind of weakness and incompetence emboldens desperate men and baits them to take chances. Putin's decision to invade Ukraine after Brandon took office was no coincidence.. I firmly beleive that if Putin does indeed take actions to escalate this war toward direct US participation, it would be based off that gamble of weakness, not madness.
And there is the comparisons to WWII and Chamberlain;)
 
My assumption about nuclear weapons is based on many different factors and from many different sources. I respect and understand your opinion and I think that Putin could use nuclear weapons, but I have not heard any realistic targets or reasons for tactical nuclear weapons. The only targets I have heard of and can think of would not be tactical nuclear usage. The only targets that the Russians realistically might target are strategic, tactical battlefield usage would have a minimal effect based on how the war is going currently.

What is the greatest threat to the Russian military and victory in the conflict? The mass numbers of western weapons coming into the country. Ukraine cannot fight a prolonged war without western weapons shipments. Targets like Lviv would make sense because that is the rally point for all weapons and supplies arriving in the country. The Russians would want to hit logistics centers and industrial areas. Much like how Ukraine is using HIMARS against Russian logistics centers. Strategic targets not tactical.

I think that the continuation of the war will only increase the risk of a nuclear strike. While Putin could use nuclear strikes on the battlefield this would have little effect on a widely spread battlefield. It could be used the create an opening for an armored thrust which is in line with cold war doctrine. But this would require multiple warheads due to the width of the battlefield.

In my analysis personally, I don't keep nuclear weapons out but due to my analysis and the information I have gathered my opinion is nuclear weapon usage is highly unlikely if not off the table currently. This is the way the Russians keep reaching for a reason to justify their usage to their people and the world. That door has not been opened. If Putin feels his regime is at risk then I think he may resort to nuclear weapons.

At the end of the day, the war needs to end. Unfortunately, neither side seems to want to end the war without the ability to walk away with honor. The one belligerent who refuses to offer honor to the other is Ukraine. They have been emboldened by western support to demand total victory. While they have the right to demand all their nation back from the invader, this means we are walking a thin line.

You seem to agree and disagree with me at the same time?? In any event, I think we are on the same page more or less..
 
"At the end of the day, the war needs to end. Unfortunately, neither side seems to want to end the war without the ability to walk away with honor. The one belligerent who refuses to offer honor to the other is Ukraine."

This war is wrong, it is unfortunate but it is a fact. The potential for nuclear weapons usage is there, so the old mechanism of ending the war of one side utterly conquering the other is not an option. It therefore has to end in a compromise. One hopes that sensible cool heads are looking at what that may be. To roll back to the pre-February situation would probably not satisfy Russia. To give away the annexed territories would not satisfy Ukraine. Perhaps a thin land strip to Crimea would do it, together with a pledge of Ukraine not joining NATO and Russia pledging to halt further expansion.
Clearly going forward the mechanism for preventing global conflagrations needs to be revisited. World leaders can and must be made to talk to each other more frequently and meet, air grievances, work out solutions. The UN has utterly failed in it's original mandate to do that, it is now largely irrelevant. Perhaps what is now needed is an association of parliaments who force their elected leaders to interact. Using contentious situations to make political points should be utterly banned as it just creates the seed for a conflict and fans the flames. The Democrats shoulder a heavy responsibility for having done just this to get rid of Trump with all the anti-Russia nonsense. Major powers will always have differences, but when you elevate it to presidential level and force them into the ring of ego's you are asking for trouble.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
59,283
Messages
1,284,579
Members
107,425
Latest member
BrentonHil
 

 

 

Latest profile posts

CamoManJ wrote on dchum's profile.
Hello there. I’ve been wanting to introduce myself personally & chat with you about hunting Nilgai. Give me a call sometime…

Best,

Jason Coryell
[redacted]
VonJager wrote on Mauser3000's profile.
+1 Great to deal with. I purchased custom rifle. No issues.
ghay wrote on Buckums's profile.
I saw you were looking for some Swift A-Frames for your 9.3. I just bought a bulk supply of them in the 285g. version. If Toby's are gone, I could let 100 go for $200 shipped you are interested.
Thanks,
Gary
Ferhipo wrote on Bowhuntr64's profile.
I am really fan of you
Bighorn191 wrote on Mtn_Infantry's profile.
Booked with Harold Grinde - Gana River - they sure kill some good ones - who'd you get set up with?
 
Top