The Ukrainians are executing a brilliant penetration and exploitation to take the critical logistics hubs of Izium, Lyman, and Lysyschansk. Unconfirmed reporting this morning indicates that Ukrainian formations have seized the Donetsk International Airport. The loss of these road, rail, and air hubs have the effect of cutting off logistically a large portion of the Russian Army Group in the East. Russian units seem to be abandoning large amounts of operational equipment as units and individuals attempt to flee eastward. As of yesterday's assessment the US based Institute for the Study of War concluded over a thousand square kilometers had been liberated in the previous 72 hours. That will have increased dramatically over the last 24.
The head of the separatist Donbas government read a prepared statement urging calm from an automobile crossing into the Russian Federation. This morning the Russian MOD posted a clip that this was all part of plan to consolidate Russian forces further south. I had visions of Baghdad Bob. The gloom and doom suddenly pervading the Russian Telegram chat subs is breathtaking.
I have no idea how Douglas MacGregor may be trying to spin this for Tucker Carlson.
This is an interesting study in the application of the military art by what are now very different military establishments. The Russian Army, true to its Soviet roots, has little to no tolerance for individual initiative - among commanders or other ranks. Indeed, without a professional NCO corps or experienced company grade officers, they aren't even organized to exploit it if they wanted to do so. Instead, the Russian way of war is about adhering to the plan and following orders.
Ukraine, on the other hand, fully embraced the US/NATO professional development, training, and organization models starting in 2010 - really accelerating the process following the poor showing by its Army in 2014. The notion of individual initiative has been deeply inculcated into the Ukrainian soldier and junior leadership. We saw it demonstrated early in the war, where small units brought the initial Russian offensive to a halt and then forced a withdrawal.
This is even more impressive. Almost four weeks ago, the Ukrainian armed forces initiated a massive deception campaign (one that nevertheless may be executed - more in a bit). From the President on down, leaks and hints indicated that Ukraine was planning an assault on Kherson. Extensive HIMARS strikes destroyed bridges that support Russian forces there, effectively isolating the potential battlefield. Probing attacks made a large scale offensive seem imminent. Suffering great attrition, the Russian theater commander attempted to reinforce Kherson, moving perhaps 15-20 thousand troops and associated armor from the region south of Kharkov (English spelling).
Employing radio silence and a total blackout of reporting or individual communications, the Ukrainian Army, over the same period, massed an offensive battle group southeast of Kharkov. Judging by the ground taken, quick collapse, and heavy casualties being suffered by the Russians, I suspect the operations group consisted of five to seven brigade combat team equivalents (many of these units having recently completed retraining under US and UK supervision.)
For offensive operations to be successful, most students of the art of war agree that a three to one combat power ratio is necessary at the point in time and space where the attack is initiated. This is not just personnel but total fires and other assets that can be brought to bear. Judging by the pace of Russian collapse, I would assume the attack ratio at point of contact was two to three times that.
Within 12 hours, all three Russian defensive belts had been penetrated, and the exploitation had begun. From a Russian perspective, absolute chaos ensued. When a deliberate defensive plan is suddenly defeated via a breakthrough, instant decisive improvisation is needed - by both sides. The Russians clearly have no one, from captain to general, capable of executing such initiative to contain the breakthrough. Ukraine, following the NATO way of war, is expecting each of its subordinate commanders to do exactly that.
Like Rommel seizing the opportunity of the breakthrough at Sedan in 1940 when he continued to exploit the breakthrough beyond the depth of his maps, the Ukrainian battle group has continued to attack. Every subordinate commander knows the objectives and is free to make decisions (fully coordinated) to achieve them. As a result, overrun and bypassed Russian units seem to be abandoning their equipment wholesale. A verified report this afternoon indicates as many as 50 abandoned, but operational Russian main battle tanks were seized in and around Izium. Many stranded for lack of fuel.
I would anticipate that the Ukrainian forces will start to consolidate their gains over the next few days. I would also not be surprised to see the pressure ratcheted up in Kherson to either begin a second true offensive, or more likely, to fix those forces to allow further exploitation in the East.
All of this is politically extremely important.
The fall Rasputitsa is coming in the next few weeks. It is the fall rainy season the precedes the frozen ground of winter. It will turn the Ukrainian steppe into a sea of mud and make maneuver very difficult if not impossible. It will be followed by a brutal winter, and then the spring Rasputitsa. Whatever Ukraine now gains they will likely be able to control until next early summer. That could prove very important if nervous EU members start putting pressure on Zelensky to negotiate a ceasefire with a suddenly interested Russian government.
Putin has to be sweating bullets. With the retaking of this region, even his revised more limited goals for his "special military operation" are beginning to look unobtainable - even to the chattering class on Telegraph. There are reports of Russian armored vehicles at key intersections in Moscow as I type this. Today is a holiday - Moscow Day. A heavy police presence would be expected, but armor would indicate at least some concern that the crowds, suddenly awakening to the potential catastrophe developing in Ukraine, could potentially get out of hand.