An interesting take on the way the world ends in '
The Daily Telegraph'; some joker has made a virtual reality simulation of the 15 minutes available to the American President as he decides what to do with the Russian ICBMs incoming.
After reading this, I thought about what the great President Trump would do: I think that within 30 seconds he would be at Option Three - full monty retaliation. Sleepy Joe, meanwhile, I see as looking confused and asking, 'What was the question again?'
Incidentally, I have noticed one mistake which is obvious to those of us who study the US military through the prism of Hollywood films: the officer advising the President is a bald, white, dude who looks a bit like Kevin Peacocke, when he should - of course - be a black man.
'Mr President, you have 15 minutes to launch!' A chilling VR glimpse into nuclear Armageddon
'301 missiles were winging their way to the US. The clock was ticking. I asked if I could call Putin. The Pentagon already had. No answer.'
ByNick Allen, US EDITOR2 April 2022 • 9:34am
Test subjects are given pretend nuclear codes and made to decide what to do
It was a lovely day and I was sitting at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, thinking about a stroll in the rose garden. Suddenly, my peaceful afternoon was rudely interrupted.
"Mr President, we have a national emergency!" yelled a voice on a speaker. Next thing I knew all hell was breaking loose and I was rushed into a lift, and down to the Situation Room. A silent man with a black case - the "nuclear football" - was at my side.
In actuality, I was blundering around in a bunker at Princeton University with a virtual reality headset on.
I was a guinea pig in an experiment to gather data on how a US President would react in the chaotic, pressure cooker situation of a nuclear attack.
Dozens of people, including former government officials, have been submerged into this incredibly realistic and chilling scenario, which is called "Nuclear Biscuit," after the plastic card which bears the launch codes.
There have been a wide range of responses, and it has shown how radically different the outcome of World War Three could be, depending on what one person decides.
As I walked into the Situation Room, I was greeted by the head of US Strategic Command on a monitor. My National Security Advisor was, sadly, stuck in traffic.
I was informed that 301 Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs] were winging their way towards the United States.
'Sir, we have a national emergency, time to go to the Situation Room'
They were going to take out all our land-based ICBMs if I didn't launch them in the next 15 minutes. There was a clock next to me on the desk.
Whatever my response, two million Americans would die in this pre-emptive Russian strike, and there would be widespread devastation in places including Minnesota, Montana and Nebraska.
The nuclear football was opened up and three predetermined response options for this scenario were placed on the table in front of me.
The least catastrophic option involved immediately launching our hundreds of land-based ICBMs, which would take out Russia's remaining ones, along with some of its air and submarine bases.
The options for launching America's nuclear arsenal are presented
The options will kill between five and 45 million people
It was a move that would kill between five million and 15 million people.
The most extreme option went much further, killing up to 45 million Russians, including Vladimir Putin.
A blaring alarm and flashing red light were going off. I couldn't hear some of what the Strategic Command general was saying. The National Security Advisor finally popped up on a monitor, but had no idea what was going on.
By this time I was completely immersed in the remarkably lifelike experience, and made a mental note to sack the National Security Advisor later, if we didn't all die.
The clock was ticking. I asked if I could call Putin, or the Kremlin. The Pentagon already had. No answer.
I asked, if I did nothing, could our allies - the UK and France - respond on our behalf later. Had we talked to Boris Johnson? The Pentagon was "trying to get hold of him". Were the UK and France under attack too? "We don't know," I was told. The clock ticked down some more.
"Sir! I need your guidance," the head of Strategic Command kept shouting.
The head of Strategic Command and the National Security Advisor weigh in
I started to get confused about which options in front of me would kill how many million people. Then I started to get mixed up between how many ICBMs and SLBMs [submarine-launched ballistic missiles] I had.
Even though it was a simulation, the responsibility seemed overwhelming. At one point I could no longer process it, and just started staring blankly at the nuclear football carrier. Why was he wearing sunglasses indoors?
"Focus on the task in hand sir!” yelled the head of Strategic Command, who was really starting to annoy me. He was for the sack too if we survived.
Panicking, I did what I suspect many volunteers for this experiment do. I adopted the "cheapest bottle of wine on the menu" approach. No one will blame me if I go for Option 1, I thought. That kills the least people.
Out came the "nuclear biscuit" - the small card with the launch code, and the general asked me to authenticate.
I was about to say “Er, actually no, I can’t do it". But the general kept saying there was no time left and we were going to lose all our ICBMs. So I read the code.
The launch codes
A split second later I felt an overwhelming sense of guilt. "Argh, I’ve just killed five million people…what have I done?!”
In reality, there are no do overs in nuclear war. But having reflected on my choice, I opted to sit through the simulation again.
This time I felt more prepared, calmer, and decided to use the full 15 minutes to quiz Strategic Command, and try to find another way.
As it became clear I was wimping out, and considering not launching at all, the general turned on me.
Clearly implying I was not up to the job, he asked if I wanted to delegate launch authority to somebody else. Presumably him.
I took umbrage at that. "I will maintain launch authority,” I found myself shouting. "We will wait. We can respond later using our submarines and bombers. That’s why we have a nuclear triad!"
"But sir! How will you justify this to the American people?" he yelled back.
At that point the clock ran out and I was rushed away to a secure bunker, having failed to launch.
I thought of the people of Minnesota, Montana and Nebraska. Had I let them down? I checked my heart rate. It had skyrocketed.
The extraordinary experience left me with the conviction that every US President really should undergo some kind of virtual reality simulation like this.
Remarkably, the US President does not undergo training for their pivotal role in a moment that could determine the future of the human race.
The White House does conduct table top exercises for what would happen in a nuclear attack, but the President is usually played by a stand-in.
The only President who did take part in realistic training was Jimmy Carter nearly half a century ago.
A US nuclear test in 1957 CREDIT: UniversalImagesGroup
In addition, the simulation shows how much comes down to the way one person is feeling that day. Too much coffee, lack of sleep, an extra glass of wine after dinner, could all have catastrophic escalatory consequences.
However, despite an ongoing debate about the President's "sole authority" to launch America's nuclear arsenal, having a civilian in charge could help to de-escalate a nuclear crisis.
The prospect of losing all your land-based ICBMs is anathema to a general, but less so to a civilian.
According to those behind the experiment the vast majority of people who go through it do end up launching nuclear weapons and killing millions of people in Russia.
Some even go straight for the option which takes out Russia's leadership and effectively annihilates the country.
There have been "presidents" who pound the table. Others, when they take the headset off after launching, have tears in their eyes.
The experiment is a collaboration between Princeton, American University, and the University of Hamburg, and data is expected in the summer.
Its chillingly realistic simulation was created by the British virtual reality company Holosphere.
Sharon Weiner, associate professor at American University, said: "In VR part of your brain makes you think you really are the president.
"Most people launch. All are frustrated with the experience. People are troubled by the fact that there wasn't another option."
Moritz Kütt, senior researcher at the University of Hamburg, said: "Some people think you can stop the incoming missiles. But they learn you can't stop them."
www.reuters.com
