Politics

[375 Ruger Fan]

Putin DOOMED: Ex-army officer sums up why Ukraine will triumph

AN EX-ARMY soldier has summed up why he believes Ukraine will triumph in the conflict with Russia.

www.express.co.uk

Former US Army Lieutenant General Mark Hertling tweeted that Armed Forces with an unshakeable belief in what they are fighting for and with the right support can overcome a force that seemingly has superior resources. Mr Hertling, who commanded 1st Armoured Division and US Army Europe before retiring in 2013, explained that, while Russia has superiority in the air and "devastating" artillery, its training "sucks" and intelligence "is clumsy".

He said: "Their soldiers are mostly one year conscripts, not professionals, and they have a poor NCO Corps. Their officers - for the most part - are terrible."

The former soldier added that when he first served with Ukrainian soldiers in 2004, they were also poorly led, trained and disciplined, but they have since improved significantly because of revamped training, more battlefield experience and good leaders.

He tweeted: "Since then, Ukraine's Army has continued to evolve and now they have an extremely supportive population, good officer & NCO leadership, they are a professional force with a good reserve ready to support, & their government is also supportive.​

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

None of this makes sense. Russia is not doing well. With so much at stake would they have sent in their B team? I very much doubt it. So are we to believe that the huge terrifying bear was a kitten all along?
No, they used their best and what you are seeing is the effect of highly effective modern counter weapons rendering tanks etc less effective, or useless. Lazers will render missiles ineffective in time too. Could it be that technology will render physical warfare redundant? Over to you military experts, I am just blabbering my opinions.

 

[David AK 53]

Next phase might be coming.

Surgical strikes on strictly military targets did not seem to work. Next option might be turning Kiev to Ukraine's Hiroshima (don't need nukes for that, just bombing) and try to force what's left of the government to capitulate.

At least, that's what I'd do if I was Putin (with his disregard for human life etc.) He still has the big hammer in reserve for an overt Western military reaction.

Modern historical example would be American-British bombing of Dresden, GE during WWII.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

None of this makes sense. Russia is not doing well. With so much at stake would they have sent in their B team? I very much doubt it. So are we to believe that the huge terrifying bear was a kitten all along?
No, they used their best and what you are seeing is the effect of highly effective modern counter weapons rendering tanks etc less effective, or useless. Lazers will render missiles ineffective in time too. Could it be that technology will render physical warfare redundant? Over to you military experts, I am just blabbering my opinions.

Kevin, I think you are very accurate in your assessment.

Who remembers "Humphrey Bogart's character Rick Blaine in the movie CASABLANCA telling the Nazi Major Strasser, "There are some parts of New York I wouldn't advise you to invade", if memory serves me...

Give the Ukrainians Javelin and Stinger missiles and the Russians are suddenly in the wrong neighborhood. Add to that a bunch of babushkas with AK-47s!

 

[Pheroze]

I don't know where she is serving, but this kind of propaganda has any other call to arms beat hands down!

 

[CraigV]

Putin DOOMED: Ex-army officer sums up why Ukraine will triumph

AN EX-ARMY soldier has summed up why he believes Ukraine will triumph in the conflict with Russia.

www.express.co.uk

Former US Army Lieutenant General Mark Hertling tweeted that Armed Forces with an unshakeable belief in what they are fighting for and with the right support can overcome a force that seemingly has superior resources. Mr Hertling, who commanded 1st Armoured Division and US Army Europe before retiring in 2013, explained that, while Russia has superiority in the air and "devastating" artillery, its training "sucks" and intelligence "is clumsy".​

​

He said: "Their soldiers are mostly one year conscripts, not professionals, and they have a poor NCO Corps. Their officers - for the most part - are terrible."​

​

The former soldier added that when he first served with Ukrainian soldiers in 2004, they were also poorly led, trained and disciplined, but they have since improved significantly because of revamped training, more battlefield experience and good leaders.​

​

He tweeted: "Since then, Ukraine's Army has continued to evolve and now they have an extremely supportive population, good officer & NCO leadership, they are a professional force with a good reserve ready to support, & their government is also supportive.​

375,

Great find! Mark does a good job in that article, better at saying what I was trying to.

Public opinion at home (Russia) may be a great "grass roots" starting point. It appears most Russians don't want this, and their news is being state run, so what they are seeing/hearing is different than the rest of the world. However, social media platforms, while being reduced are still active. If this can be seized upon, it could spread much like it did in North Africa during Arab Spring.

Poverty and hardship are just the way of life in Russia. Now, by spreading the information of actual costs, and impacts to the people, that's where internal pressure can powder keg. I hate to say platforms like Twitter, Facebook and others are important, but they may have as much impact as sanctions.

 

[Ray B]

I wonder about the pendulum effect- Russia "absorbs" the Crimea and eastern provinces; then Russia attempts to absorb all of Ukraine. then Russia gets their derriere handed to them. Much of Russia's resources are spent. Some in Ukraine may see the situation as an opportunity to reclaim the eastern provinces and Crimea, and go on the offensive. May not end well.

 

[spike.t]

The Russian Army is a conscription Army. When I was there last, they had reduced the mandatory service from 24-18 months. Obviously they were young troops, and unlike our Army, all direction comes from Officers, not NCO's. What they have to their advantage is numbers and resources.

It's a tough situation for them to be in. There are familial ties, shared language, values and lifestyles between them and the Ukrainians. How much "heart" they put into the fight is hard to gauge, but one can speculate.

I think Putin is following his playbook, and his moves are predictable. What the world doesn't need is for over-reaction on our (everyone except Russia) parts. Keep up the sanctions and materiel support. Putting BUFF's over the Arctic would only inflate the situation internationally.

For consideration though is the amount of Russian troops committed to action, vs those in reserve on the borders. This may be just the scouting missions, to test the Ukraine resolve, and to deplete their resources.

Numbers mean fkall when it matters....probably more of a fkn issue when things go oops....as i really doubt they going to send in the milk sops first...another fktard post ...oh...being sarcastic...then they get fkd up by the residents who might have an issue with them...Good

 

[Sabattiboy]

Some on my strong Christian friends say the United States doesn't exist in the final Battle of Armageddon

Zechariah 14:2 NIV says ALL nations will fight against Jerusalem. If America still exists at that time they too will be there. Also might not be called American by then.
As is currently seen, american support of Israel can flip flop with every change in the white house.

 

[Sabattiboy]

I find it ironic and quite humorous that the big tough guy oil producer ran out of gas and is getting scolded in the streets by women.

“You should put sunflower seeds in your pockets so they will grow on Ukrainian land after you die."…I can’t quit laughing at this one.

On a more serious note, everything I’m reading and hearing point to a Russian force that was told one thing and are seeing quite another…a people that desires “liberating” do not shoot back.

However, these things add to the humiliation and throws sparks at the powder keg that is Putin. I hope that clearer minds can prevent a next-level desperation move.

One has to do something with the ammunition because it is sure to be taken away if Russia wins.

 

[BigSteve57]

I don't know where she is serving, but this kind of propaganda has any other call to arms beat hands down!

View attachment 454710View attachment 454711

Nice trigger discipline!

 

[wesheltonj]

I don't know where she is serving, but this kind of propaganda has any other call to arms beat hands down!

View attachment 454710View attachment 454711

Unfortunately, that photo is from a couple of years ago and it’s her with an Airsoft gun.

 

[Sabattiboy]

In this unusual situation, where the demented mind of a narcissist has wrought such destruction, at some point does an officer in the field start to wonder about the slaughter of those in his charge? Can we look for those in charge to start "making haste slowly" as it were. Or do you expect the "correct" thing is to keep pushing into the fray?

Erin Rommel probably felt some issues of being on the wrong side, others over the millennia as well. However, the guy in the ground doesn't get a say.

 

[VertigoBE]

Unfortunately, that photo is from a couple of years ago and it’s her with an Airsoft gun.

I didn’t dare say it, but that indeed looked like an air soft gun

 

[Randy F]

U.S. agriculture production costs are increasingly important to the near- and long-term viability of U.S. farms. Fertilizer prices are the issue top of mind for farmers heading into 2022 since fertilizer costs account for approximately 15% of total cash costs in the U.S. All major crop production nutrients have experienced increased prices when compared to September 2020: ammonia has increased over 210%; liquid nitrogen has increased over 159%; urea is up 155%; MAP has increased 125%; DAP is up over 100%; and potash has risen above 134. Expect these cost to go up even more. Many farmers will use less which would reduce yields and raise prices. I think inflation going through the roof. Also will the Fed have the stomach to raise interest rates in the middle of this crisis. The Russians will suffer from the sanctions but so will everyone else.

I wish I could contract fertilizers at your numbers.
Nitrogen based products were up 3X and most phosphorus and potash prices were at or near double before the Ukraine invasion ever started. The prices are ridiculous and are targets of opportunity for gouging. There is plenty of all of it.

Nitrogen products are petroleum byproducts so as soon as our fearful leader trashed US production, the fear mongers raised the red flag and prices started going up. Everything else goes with it. Much like soybean prices drop a buck every time a mouse farts in Brazil and some idiot translates it into a devastating wind storm.

Transportation is one of the reasons as well. There is enough supply, getting it to me has been and will be an issue.

You do, and will continue to see prices rise as commodities are correcting. As is what happens every time there is a significant uptick in commodities, every person with a seed or a part for a machine in his hand wants a bigger piece of the “big money” the farmers is getting. Tractors, irrigation, new construction, etc, are all up 15% or more. Funny how those prices never settle back when the market drops.

There isn’t a farmer I know, and I know many across the country, that is willing to cut back on amounts used. Technology (we won’t even get into its cost increase) has brought us to the razor edge of minimum rate to yield ratios as it is with precision ag and variable rate tech. Cutting anything would drop our price per unit much more than our cost per unit at this point.

Sorry if that seemed like a rant but my point is that our government will have you believe this is all because of this war along with a ton of other problems that existed prior to the build up at the Ukrainian border.
They need to blame someone for their incompetence.

We will still keep everyone fed.

 

[Sabattiboy]

U.S. agriculture production costs are increasingly important to the near- and long-term viability of U.S. farms. Fertilizer prices are the issue top of mind for farmers heading into 2022 since fertilizer costs account for approximately 15% of total cash costs in the U.S. All major crop production nutrients have experienced increased prices when compared to September 2020: ammonia has increased over 210%; liquid nitrogen has increased over 159%; urea is up 155%; MAP has increased 125%; DAP is up over 100%; and potash has risen above 134. Expect these cost to go up even more. Many farmers will use less which would reduce yields and raise prices. I think inflation going through the roof. Also will the Fed have the stomach to raise interest rates in the middle of this crisis. The Russians will suffer from the sanctions but so will everyone else.

Don't forget the fertilizer (ammonium nitrate fertilizer) that goes into bomb making.

 

[Red Leg]

The Russian Army is a conscription Army. When I was there last, they had reduced the mandatory service from 24-18 months. Obviously they were young troops, and unlike our Army, all direction comes from Officers, not NCO's. What they have to their advantage is numbers and resources.

It's a tough situation for them to be in. There are familial ties, shared language, values and lifestyles between them and the Ukrainians. How much "heart" they put into the fight is hard to gauge, but one can speculate.

I think Putin is following his playbook, and his moves are predictable. What the world doesn't need is for over-reaction on our (everyone except Russia) parts. Keep up the sanctions and materiel support. Putting BUFF's over the Arctic would only inflate the situation internationally.

For consideration though is the amount of Russian troops committed to action, vs those in reserve on the borders. This may be just the scouting missions, to test the Ukraine resolve, and to deplete their resources.

I would argue they are having the opposite problem. This is not the Red Army. They do not have the logistics resources to sustain high intensity combat operations. Trying to do it while projecting power is even more difficult. I suspect the actual reason more forces haven't moved is because every logistics tap is being turned to maintain the first echelon in combat.

Moreover, militaries, East or West do not "scout" with armor regiments. Assuming those additional troops represent actual combat formations, I have no doubt they would be rolling if they could.

I truly think his "playbook" went out the window 48 hours ago. I am more convinced daily that the sycophants providing his decision matrix misread the Ukrainian will to resist, the effectiveness of their anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, and the West's response. He either has to try and fight this through to the finish (perhaps by starving the trapped civilians?), find a face saving way off the ledge (tomorrow's negotiations?), or Armageddon.

I don't pretend to be an expert on Russian politics, but at some point he is also risking someone else stepping in to resolve the issue.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

I suspect the actual reason more forces haven't moved is because every logistics tap is being turned to maintain the first echelon in combat.

Hmmm, if only old Vlad would have read my AH posts a couple weeks ago.
Then, I posted that one should "Plan for the worst, hope for the best".

 

[spike.t]

Erin Rommel probably felt some issues of being on the wrong side, others over the millennia as well. However, the guy in the ground doesn't get a say.

That's Erwin Rommel....maybe spelling is crap along with geography over there.... ....brilliant commander and realist at the time...unfortunately for him...so possibly try and get it correct....

 

[Randy F]

I would argue they are having the opposite problem. This is not the Red Army. They do not have the logistics resources to sustain high intensity combat operations. Trying to do it while projecting power is even more difficult. I suspect the actual reason more forces haven't moved is because every logistics tap is being turned to maintain the first echelon in combat.

Moreover, militaries, East or West do not "scout" with armor regiments. Assuming those additional troops represent actual combat formations, I have no doubt they would be rolling if they could.

I truly think his "playbook" went out the window 48 hours ago. I am more convinced daily that the sycophants providing his decision matrix misread the Ukrainian will to resist, the effectiveness of their anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, and the West's response. He either has to try and fight this through to the finish (perhaps by starving the trapped civilians?), find a face saving way off the ledge (tomorrow's negotiations?), or Armageddon.

I don't pretend to be an expert on Russian politics, but at some point he is also risking someone else stepping in to resolve the issue.

Do you suppose those same sycophants faced any kind of repercussion for not telling him what he wanted to hear and telling the whole truth?
I wouldn’t have the slightest idea but, if so, it’s not working out very well for him.