@Red Leg,
It seems to me with the losses continuing to mount on the Russian side at a rate that is just crazy high, that (nukes not withstanding) Russia is moving closer and closer to having less than the critical mass required to fight any kind of offensive war and are may have to withdraw from Ukraine as such to even be able to defend it's borders.
Your thoughts?
I think it is quite likely that Russia has suffered half a million casualties and a quarter of a million dead in this war. Their prewar army and its equipment are essentially extinct. I do not think this speaks well of their society to say I do not know of another currently, to include China, that could sustain this level of per capita casualties and not suffer a popular political revolt or worse.
Russia has tapped heavily into one major resource which is the population outside the traditional Duchy of Moscow. Rather like Great Britain during the Victorian age, which could fight its wars with colonial soldiers from India officered by British professionals. Unlike Great Britain, Russia has tried to do this after its regular forces were decisively defeated during the first six-months of the war.
Now Putin has a reinforced division equivalent occupying almost 1500 square kilometers of Kursk and threatening the whole supply effort into the Eastern battle zone. The strike against the rail car ferry at Kersch simply further complicates that challenge.
To date, Putin seems more focused on the blame game for Kursk and in trying to denude other commands of personnel to form ad hoc units to try and regain Kursk. Most of a "battalion" of aerospace forces were butchered a couple of days ago as they were approaching the Kursk zone of combat.
What he has not done - and I am coming to believe he can not do - is create new units from the youth of the Empire's center around Moscow and St. Petersburg. It seems mobilization of these human assets was off the table from the start.
The continued costly offensive effort in the Donbas would seem to reflect a political demand Putin has made of his generals. Perhaps he believes its complete seizure is a necessary prelude to negotiations or that it would result in the collapse of Ukrainian will to resist. I see no evidence of the latter, but who knows what he is led to believe through his information filters.
But like you, there is a demographic clock ticking in blood every second. 1917 proved the field army could determine when it had ticked enough long before the powers in St. Petersburg knew time was up.
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