To echo
@shootist~ above, I don't think this verdict is drastically going to change the poll numbers or the election results either way.
My logic; all this does is play into people's confirmation bias. If you're a Trump supporter, then it validates your existing opinion that Trump is the victim who is being unfairly prosecuted by 'the swamp'. If you dislike Trump, it confirms your existing opinion that he's criminal scum.
If you're in the middle, you probably don't care much either way. For some, it'll increase their support a little as they think it's a silly sham trial, for some it decreases their support as they're not keen on having a convicted felon in office. If I had to guess, the net result is basically no change, no more than a point either way, and if it does change anything, it's probably in Biden's favor.
What it will probably do is increase voter turn out overall, increasing Trump's lead in states he'd already carry, whilst increasing Biden's numbers in states he'd already carry. Considering how close this election is likely to be, that +/-1 point swing in swing states may prove to be incredibly important, it may not. But I don't think this outcome suddenly gives Trump a landslide victory. Far from it.
It's certainly interesting to me that my right wing friends see it as a good thing for Trump's chances, whilst my buddies on the left see it as the final nail in his coffin. Those who I've spoken too at the office and within my friendship group who I'd characterize as 'centrist, not that politically engaged' (i.e the swing voter) don't seem to have much of an opinion on the whole topic.
I guess we shall see.
A left wing opinion piece (CNN):
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/01/politics/polls-trump-verdict-election-biden/index.html
A centrist opinion piece (Forbes):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianb...warning-signs-for-republican/?sh=3cee14e64e6e
A right wing opinion piece (Fox):
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tr...mber-republicans-less-likely-support-him-poll