@Brent in Az,
@PHOENIX PHIL and
@AZDAVE, what's your take on the 2024 Arizona Senate race? Frankly, as an outsider, I view Lake like a I did Hershel Walker and Dr Oz.
Arizona Republican Kari Lake, who lost her bid to be the state's governor in 2022 and is loyal supporter of former President Donald Trump, announced she is running to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate.
At an event in her home state Tuesday evening, she told a crowd of supporters that she intends to be Arizona's next senator.
Lake will join the race for the seat currently held by incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who switched from Democrat to Independent after the midterms. Sinema has not formally announced a reelection campaign.
Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb have already announced their bids.
I'll give you my thoughts but with the caveat that my political prognostication skills are sorely lacking.
I think your take on Lake is accurate. A former television news desk jockey with no experience whatsoever from what I can tell. She tied herself to the Trump train and ultimately I believe that cost her. Arizona was in my opinion a strong Trump hold. What happened here on election night in 2020 was pretty shocking to me. And there were without question some nefarious things going on here like vote harvesting which is illegal here. Enough to turn the election on its own? Maybe, I don't know. But I think the tide has turned on Trump and his devoted ones seeking election for themselves.
What I think you have to do here is to think about the history of this state. As an outsider I always had the impression that Arizona was pretty conservative, but in their own way. Folks here didn't seem to march lockstep with the Republican party. It was a different breed of Republican that won here.
And then I moved here and that opinion was only further strengthened. And think about it a bit. John McCain was kind of his own guy and he was senator here for a very long time. If he were still alive and capable, I'm guessing he'd still be one of our senators.
Now we have one senator who is a Democrat and one who started that way. Let's look at Sinema first. While I didn't vote for her and won't if she decides to run again, she wasn't the left's version of a wing nut. She had her own values, and albeit definitely left leaning, they aren't way off the chart like an AOC. And she won. Once she established she wasn't a puppet, she lost support of the Dem party and switched to an independent and with it likely her seat.
Our other senator is Mark Kelly. A Dem for sure, but again not a wing nut. He's former military and a gun owner who really hasn't pushed for gun control measures in spite of his wife being shot by a nutcase. For some reason, his office got a hold of my email and I get regular emails from his office. Again I wouldn't vote for him and disagree with his proposals as a whole, but he does not come across as some sort of crazy person.
I think all of this plays well with the Arizona electorate. Lake just doesn't, she comes across too extreme, whether that's an accurate impression or not is irrelevant. It just doesn't play regardless.
Now the good news for Republicans is that from what I know of Rep Gallego, he would be better off for himself to stay in the House of Reps. He's the other end of the loon scale, i.e. way to the left. I don't see him doing well in a statewide Federal election without remaking himself.
As for Sherrif Lamb, I don't know much about him even though Pinal county borders Maricopa. I've seen a few of his commercials and he will likely appeal to some. To the entire state? Not so sure about that.
