Politics

[375 Ruger Fan]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ack-school-northern-france-bfm-tv-2023-10-13/

ARRAS, France, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A 20-year-old knifeman fatally stabbed a teacher in an attack at a school in the northern France city of Arras on Friday that President Emmanuel Macron condemned as "barbaric Islamic terrorism".

Two other people were seriously wounded and fighting for their lives, Macron said after visiting the school.

"The teacher who was killed stepped in and undoubtedly saved a lot of lives himself," Macron said after paying his respects to the dead teacher, whose body still lay under a cover and surrounded by a pool of blood.

 

[sestoppelman]

Thanks.

Do their rockets have the ability to hit a specific target like the King David Hotel?

I saw on the news that yes Hezbollah does have that capability and it looks as though they are itching to start lobbing missiles.

 

[Wheels]

I dont think Hamas has that capability (its possible theyve developed it and Im not aware.. but I dont think so)...

Hezbollah on the other hand could give it an honest try though.. the SCUD for example has the range and is terminally guided..

That said if they want to try to take out a specific target like the KDH, there are other means that would have a much greater chance at success...

Iron Dome isnt great at fending off 5000 rockets going everywhere at once.. but it is pretty spectacular at protecting point specific targets.. and most of Hezbollahs rocket and missile technology dates back to the 1970's and 80's...

Thanks for the education!

The cumulative knowledge on AH is staggering.

 

[sestoppelman]

I would assume the heroic Congressman's constituents are dealing with it as well as they "book flights home." All things considered, I think I would hang out at the King David or wherever until a flight was available from Ben Gurion or Queen Alia.

I just don't have a lot of patience for grandstanding from whichever side of the aisle. It looks like the US government is going to start charter flights today which is a good thing. Something they should have had in the works earlier if for no other reason than to deny Mills his five minutes.

No good deed goes unpunished..... tough crowd here.

 

[mdwest]

I saw on the news that yes Hezbollah does have that capability and it looks as though they are itching to start lobbing missiles.

Capability yes.. but that capability is limited..

If I were the guy doing the CARVER-SHOCK assessment, throwing missiles and rockets at the KDH would likely be pretty low on my list of recommended attack methods (I wont get into what I think are methods that would be more likely to succeed here.. no reason to feed any would be jackasses that sort of information in a place where all the world can see).. As stated earlier, launching a few missiles at KDH based on what I know and understand about IDF defense capabilities has a pretty low chance of success..

I also question whether or not Hezbollah is actually itching to start lobbing missiles..

It is absolutely entirely possible that the Hamas action was either coordinated and/or planned for the purpose of supporting a later, larger Hezbollah action.. or that Hezbollah is evaluating whats going on and trying to determine if an opportunistic approach is a good course of action and that they should consider their own attacks.. rest assured they are talking to the Iranians, and very possibly Hamas right now about "what to do"...

But there are a number of reasons why now is NOT a good idea for them as well.. (again, something we probably shouldnt get into in great detail on an open to the world to see internet forum)...

I'll let the talking heads, pundits, news outlets, apologists, and others continue to speculate on the TV and online.. and continue to listen to the people that I believe actually have a good idea whats going on, while continuing to filter out all the 30 pieces of junk for the every 1 piece of real information out there..

Im not an expert by any stretch on ME affairs.. there are others on this board that know far more than I do and/or have far more experience..

That said.. I've been traveling in and out of the region for the better part of the last 25 years.. have overseen significant operations in Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, UAE, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and a few other locations for most of the last 20 years that are all related in one way or another to geo-political issues, US national security, regional security, US foreign policy, etc.. and have a reasonably decent grasp on whats going on... and more importantly, maintain a pretty exhaustive list of contacts that live throughout the region that I ping personally for information and counsel (we still have operations in a couple of places in the ME)..

My best guess is that Hezbollah doesnt enter into the fray in the immediate future...

Give it a week or two and that assessment may change (its clearly a dynamic and fluid situation right now)..

 

[Red Leg]

I dont think Hamas has that capability (its possible theyve developed it and Im not aware.. but I dont think so)...

Hezbollah on the other hand could give it an honest try though.. the SCUD for example has the range and is terminally guided..

That said if they want to try to take out a specific target like the KDH, there are other means that would have a much greater chance at success...

Iron Dome isnt great at fending off 5000 rockets going everywhere at once.. but it is pretty spectacular at protecting point specific targets.. and most of Hezbollahs rocket and missile technology dates back to the 1970's and 80's...

The Israelis have a three tier air defense system that would be pretty effective against most anything Hezbollah has acquired. The low tier is Iron Dome which is the most proven system in the world. it is very effective for taking out lower altitude rockets and missiles whether smart or dumb. It also would be effective against drones like the Iranian Shahad 136 which would be a far more serious threat than any of the homemade products in the region. Mid-level which is the flight realm of cruise missiles is covered by the David's Sling system. Cruise missiles are not a threat from Hezbollah. High level for defense against true ballistic missiles is covered by the Arrow-3 interceptors. There is considerable debate whether Hezbollah has any Scuds or an Iranian clone.

Most of Hezbollah's rockets are Iranian and Syrian variants of ones used in various Soviet area designed multiple launch rocket systems. Rather than firing from trucks, these are fired through small emplaced launcher racks carrying 1-4 rockets. They can shoot many thousands of these, but they have similar range limitations to the homemade Hamas weapons and are no more accurate. That would be an effective weapon to frighten civilians, but would not be militarily consequential.

What is unclear is how many of the Iranian battlefield missiles they have. These would have the range to strike any city or town in Israel. They wouldn't have the accuracy to target the King David, but they could hit any city at which they were aimed. I would assume the IDF would pay them special attention with air interdiction.

Who knows what will happen in the coming weeks, but the fact that Hezbollah seems to have been as surprised as much as the IDF would indicate this was not a coordinated attack. Moreover, as each day passes, Hamas casualties will mount and any effort to support them from Lebanon would have to appear ever more Quixotic.

 

[Zambezi]

I fear the hostages will never be released by Hamas. Hamas would rather die or sacrifice their own people than release the hostages. They MIGHT be held for bargaining or hostage exchange.

On the other hand Iran has financed and prompted this situation. Maybe hitting Iran until the hostages are released will have a more productive outcome.... unfortunately you may get the hostages but Israel will open up a war on three fronts, or more (Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran)

Maybe it's my Christian/biblical belief but I don't fear Israel being over run or conquered.

As much as it pains me and the families involved, the hostages are in very dire circumstances.

 

[sestoppelman]

Capability yes.. but that capability is limited..

If I were the guy doing the CARVER-SHOCK assessment, throwing missiles and rockets at the KDH would likely be pretty low on my list of recommended attack methods (I wont get into what I think are methods that would be more likely to succeed here.. no reason to feed any would be jackasses that sort of information in a place where all the world can see).. As stated earlier, launching a few missiles at KDH based on what I know and understand about IDF defense capabilities has a pretty low chance of success..

I also question whether or not Hezbollah is actually itching to start lobbing missiles..

It is absolutely entirely possible that the Hamas action was either coordinated and/or planned for the purpose of supporting a later, larger Hezbollah action.. or that Hezbollah is evaluating whats going on and trying to determine if an opportunistic approach is a good course of action and that they should consider their own attacks.. rest assured they are talking to the Iranians, and very possibly Hamas right now about "what to do"...

But there are a number of reasons why now is NOT a good idea for them as well.. (again, something we probably shouldnt get into in great detail on an open to the world to see internet forum)...

I'll let the talking heads, pundits, news outlets, apologists, and others continue to speculate on the TV and online.. and continue to listen to the people that I believe actually have a good idea whats going on, while continuing to filter out all the 30 pieces of junk for the every 1 piece of real information out there..

Im not an expert by any stretch on ME affairs.. there are others on this board that know far more than I do and/or have far more experience..

That said.. I've been traveling in and out of the region for the better part of the last 25 years.. have overseen significant operations in Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, UAE, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and a few other locations for most of the last 20 years that are all related in one way or another to geo-political issues, US national security, regional security, US foreign policy, etc.. and have a reasonably decent grasp on whats going on... and more importantly, maintain a pretty exhaustive list of contacts that live throughout the region that I ping personally for information and counsel (we still have operations in a couple of places in the ME)..

My best guess is that Hezbollah doesnt enter into the fray in the immediate future...

Give it a week or two and that assessment may change (its clearly a dynamic and fluid situation right now)..

I think that bird has already flown.

MSN

 

[Red Leg]

I fear the hostages will never be released by Hamas. Hamas would rather die or sacrifice their own people than release the hostages. They MIGHT be held for bargaining or hostage exchange.

On the other hand Iran has financed and prompted this situation. Maybe hitting Iran until the hostages are released will have a more productive outcome.... unfortunately you may get the hostages but Israel will open up a war on three fronts, or more (Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran)

Maybe it's my Christian/biblical belief but I don't fear Israel being over run or conquered.

As much as it pains me and the families involved, the hostages are in very dire circumstances.

Judging by the bombing to date, I think it is pretty clear Israel has already made a military decision with respect to the hostages.

 

[Red Leg]

I think that bird has already flown.

MSN

I don't think so. Israel is certainly positioned and prepared to deal with a Hezbollah attack, but that is far different than a full scale campaign to silence Hezbollah.

I think it is important to remember that neither Hamas nor Hezbollah are capable of really threatening the State of Israel with military defeat. They are a both a murderous nuisance, but in spite of all the pearl clutching on the news, this is nothing remotely like the threat posed by the Syrian and Egyptian armies in 1967 or 1973.

What would be a meaningful threat would be a ballistic missile bombardment from Iran. They have hundreds of reasonably accurate ballistic missiles capable of striking anywhere in the country utilizing fairly large conventional warheads. I don't have any current personal knowledge, but I would be surprised if they couldn't overwhelm Israeli missile defense systems. Israel would be forced to carry out massive retaliatory airstrikes into fairly well defended Iranian air space. Israel's Air Force is very effective, but also quite small for a sustained air campaign.

 

[NE 7x57]

Judging by the bombing to date, I think it is pretty clear Israel has already made a military decision with respect to the hostages.

Sadly I think the fate of the hostages was pretty well sealed the day they were taken. Given the depravity of the attack on Israel I personally would rather die in a bombing than be a Hamas captive.

 

[mdwest]

I think that bird has already flown.

MSN

2 day old information… that’s a typical response to a typical threat that they deal with on a very regular basis…

The media is sensationalizing what is a more than common occurrence and action by both parties..

Again… give it a few weeks… things may dramatically change.. it’s fluid and dynamic right now..

But best guess for today is… hezbollah doesn’t enter the fray with any level of magnitude in the immediate future…

 

[wesheltonj]

Hezbollah will attack when Iran tells them too, although some might get trigger happy but Iran wants there 6 billion.

I suspect a Israel/Iran war is not very far away. I just can't see Israel letting Iran having the bomb.

 

[mdwest]

Hezbollah will attack when Iran tells them too, although some might get trigger happy but Iran wants there 6 billion.

I suspect a Israel/Iran war is not very far away. I just can't see Israel letting Iran having the bomb.

They certainly didnt hesitate putting warheads on foreheads when they thought the Iraqis were getting close to developing a nuclear capability..

I doubt theyre just going to stand by and let the Iranians develop one either... regardless of what the rest of the world thinks..

That said.. Iraq, while not an easy target for them.. is a lot closer and a lot easier to hit for them than Iran would be...

Israeli Attack on Iraq's Osirak 1981: Setback or Impetus for Nuclear Weapons? | National Security Archive

Washington, D.C., June 7, 2021 – On June 7, 1981, 40 years ago today, Israel attacked and partially destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear research reactor at Tuwaitha, using U.S. supplied F-15 and F-16 aircraft to carry out the attack. Ten Iraqi soldiers and one French engineer were killed during the...

nsarchive.gwu.edu

 

[Brent in Az]

An Employee of the Israeli embassy in Beijing has been stabbed

 

[wesheltonj]

They certainly didnt hesitate putting warheads on foreheads when they thought the Iraqis were getting close to developing a nuclear capability..

I doubt theyre just going to stand by and let the Iranians develop one either... regardless of what the rest of the world thinks..

That said.. Iraq, while not an easy target for them.. is a lot closer and a lot easier to hit for them than Iran would be...

Israeli Attack on Iraq's Osirak 1981: Setback or Impetus for Nuclear Weapons? | National Security Archive

Washington, D.C., June 7, 2021 – On June 7, 1981, 40 years ago today, Israel attacked and partially destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear research reactor at Tuwaitha, using U.S. supplied F-15 and F-16 aircraft to carry out the attack. Ten Iraqi soldiers and one French engineer were killed during the...

nsarchive.gwu.edu

While I don't know what the Iranian Air Force is capable of, I would not think they would be any match fro the Israelis and the latest and greatest US equipment. I get they would have to fly over Iraq.

 

[Red Leg]

While I don't know what the Iranian Air Force is capable of, I would not think they would be any match fro the Israelis and the latest and greatest US equipment. I get they would have to fly over Iraq.

Their air force is indeed third world. However, they did purchase the S300 system from Russia which is pretty effective. I assume interdiction of it would be the first and highest priority.

That said, the real issue will be range. Most of the targets in Iran would require mid-air refueling. Israel has KC-46 tankers on order, but the first won't be delivered until next year at the earliest. The IDF claims they have extended the range of the F35, but that by necessity would lessen payload for fuel. No free lunches.

 

[Hunt anything]

An Employee of the Israeli embassy in Beijing has been stabbed

They also said no motive was established. You gotta be freaking kidding!

 

[Datchew]

CNN is television’s version of tabloid media. All hype and sensationalism with little basis in facts.

You give them too much credit and let them off the hook way too much.

They're full tilt propaganda.

 

[Brent in Az]

Global day of Jihad. In America we have all the clueless leftist tits supporting Palestine, and condemning Israel.