Politics

[Mannscho]

Don't worry I have a sneaking suspicion the troll will vanish fairly soon....

May be a lot of things, but not a troll, just splicing in some rude awakening. I'll vanish for a while, the painful truth won't though...

 

[kyaria583]

In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which Democracy is) always followed by a Dictatorship." Besides this not to forget the history and moreover, because I am a college student, I decided to do the writing that these guys appreciated https://edusson.com/write-my-literature-review they wrote a literature review for me, it was very pleasant to read about history and moreover, now I have criere which taught me a lot and besides this I got a good grade in college.

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."

Alexander Tyler's perspective is thought-provoking, it's important to remember that history and political systems are complex and can't always be reduced to a single formula. Democracies have shown resilience and adaptability over time, and many have lasted for more than 200 years. Societal progress doesn't always follow a linear path, and each civilization's journey is unique.

 

[WAB]

Alexander Tyler's perspective is thought-provoking, it's important to remember that history and political systems are complex and can't always be reduced to a single formula. Democracies have shown resilience and adaptability over time, and many have lasted for more than 200 years. Societal progress doesn't always follow a linear path, and each civilization's journey is unique.

Thankfully the USA is not a democracy. Our founding fathers were wiser than that.

 

[BSO Dave]

DeSantis had a good performance and probably has the best publicly known record of all the candidates. I don't know if he will rise in the polls or not. His timing his campaign to coincide with the start of the Trump indictments to try and siphon off Trump voters was off-putting to the Trump base and seen as a betrayal. I don't see him ever recovering from that.

Although it's anecdotal, FOX did a follow-up with a panel of 8 Wisconsin republican voters who they interviewed going into the debate and then again this morning. Pre-debate 3 favored DeSantis, 2 favored Ramaswamy, 1 favored Scott, 1 Trump, and 1 was undecided.

It was very surprising and revealing to see that this morning 7 of those 8 favored DeSantis citing that he came across as the most prepared and experienced candidate with proven success in Florida that they felt would translate on the national level. They all liked Haley, but still felt DeSantis would have the best chance at the broader electorate. The 1 voter supporting Scott stayed with Scott. 7 of the 8 also agreed that Trump's lack of electability with independents influenced their decision to shift support to DeSantis... If this small sampling is any indicator of what may occur in other states, maybe there is hope for a swing away from Trump's lead in the polls. It will be interesting to see what the next poll numbers say...

 

[PARA45]

One thing that it is quite intimidating, and others have said it on this forum. Is that if Trump doesn't get the R nomination, being the arrogant individual that he is, he will not go quietly, and will end up running as an independent, and hurt any chance we may have of retaking the White House. Maybe I'm overthinking this too much.

 

[Louis Toadvine]

One thing that it is quite intimidating, and others have said it on this forum. Is that if Trump doesn't get the R nomination, being the arrogant individual that he is, he will not go quietly, and will end up running as an independent, and hurt any chance we may have of retaking the White House. Maybe I'm overthinking this too much.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think this sort of "kill switch" scenario is very likely and that the man would rather burn it all down than accept defeat. He's behaved that way thus far in his political career and I have no doubt he'll do it again.

Unfortunately, his chance of winning the general election against literally anyone else can be factored in decimals. So we're in a situation where an unelectable candidate has a proverbial gun to our collective heads. That might explain how he is somehow still polling ahead of competitors: "Accept the <1% chance of winning with me or I'll make sure it's 0.00%."

 

[rookhawk]

As to Trump not going quietly, etc.

I think Vivek has the best chance because Trump insults thrust at him will only make him seem more liberal/left than he really is to the never-trumpers. This includes the key demographics of minorities and suburban women voters. So the more hate Trump thrusts at him, the more votes he picks up in the general election.

I think talking about Pence at all is a waste of breath. Totally unelectable. He is viewed as a traitor to Trump for not supporting a coup on Jan 6...he lost the super-Trump fans. On the other hand, he cannot speak ill of Trump further which would be required to gain the moderates and women voters. He has no winnable game. Irrelevant.

Desantis has an actual winning track record as a Gov. This is a key ingredient in past successful presidents. They know how to run complex things. Generally, past Governors make better presidents than senators and congressman who are professional sh*t talkers that are expert ranters.

Everybody else, good or bad, has no shot.

 

[Red Leg]

One thing that frustrates me is the “conservative” press. It is essentially MSM in reverse. If you scroll through Revolver, CFP, Gateway Pundit, Brietbart etc. you would think DeSantis didn’t show up at all. Those outlets are all in for Trump and are as targeted against the rest of the field as MSMBC. Far too many of our side only rely on that sort biased reporting. You can read it here daily. It is just as bad as a suburban soccer mom glued to CNN.

No one on the liberal side wants let’s say a DeSantis Halley ticket to break through. Neither do their apparent allies on the farther end of the right hand side.

 

[rookhawk]

One thing that frustrates me is the “conservative” press. It is essentially MSM in reverse. If you scroll through Revolver, CFP, Gateway Pundit, Brietbart etc. you would think DeSantis didn’t show up at all. Those outlets are all in for Trump and are as targeted against the rest of the field as MSMBC. Far too many of our side only rely on that sort biased reporting. You can read it here daily. It is just as bad as a suburban soccer mom glued to CNN.

No one on the liberal side wants let’s say a DeSantis Halley ticket to break through. Neither do their apparent allies on the farther end of the right hand side.

100%.

I noticed this about 15 years ago when W was still the president. Fox News and the other "conservative" outlets were just pro-some republican, but their logic and reasoning was based on leftists principles. They weren't rationally conservative, even if their outcome was picking a more conservative politician.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

One thing that frustrates me is the “conservative” press. It is essentially MSM in reverse. If you scroll through Revolver, CFP, Gateway Pundit, Brietbart etc. you would think DeSantis didn’t show up at all. Those outlets are all in for Trump and are as targeted against the rest of the field as MSMBC. Far too many of our side only rely on that sort biased reporting. You can read it here daily. It is just as bad as a suburban soccer mom glued to CNN.

No one on the liberal side wants let’s say a DeSantis Halley ticket to break through. Neither do their apparent allies on the farther end of the right hand side.

This. Spot on sir. Pisses me off to no end. I have the same level of affection for Hannity that I do for Maddow. I would weep tears of joy for a DeSantis/Haley ticket.

 

[spike.t]

May be a lot of things, but not a troll, just splicing in some rude awakening. I'll vanish for a while, the painful truth won't though...

Whatever.....

 

[Wheels]

Although it's anecdotal, FOX did a follow-up with a panel of 8 Wisconsin republican voters who they interviewed going into the debate and then again this morning. Pre-debate 3 favored DeSantis, 2 favored Ramaswamy, 1 favored Scott, 1 Trump, and 1 was undecided.

It was very surprising and revealing to see that this morning 7 of those 8 favored DeSantis citing that he came across as the most prepared and experienced candidate with proven success in Florida that they felt would translate on the national level. They all liked Haley, but still felt DeSantis would have the best chance at the broader electorate. The 1 voter supporting Scott stayed with Scott. 7 of the 8 also agreed that Trump's lack of electability with independents influenced their decision to shift support to DeSantis... If this small sampling is any indicator of what may occur in other states, maybe there is hope for a swing away from Trump's lead in the polls. It will be interesting to see what the next poll numbers say...

It is interesting that Fox has a panel of 8 Wisconsin Republican voters, 7 of which don't think Trump can win a general election.

There is a lot written that Trump can't win a general election, and that might be true. The other side of that equation is that no Republican can win the general election without Trump's base that transcends traditional main line Republicans. DeSantis has probably already burned the bridge with the Trump base of non main line Republican voters. That base includes independents, minorities, socially liberal Christians, blue collar/no collar workers, and conservative Democrats. Those voters will stay home and not vote if Trump is not on the ballot.

No Republican has ever gotten more than 64 million votes in a general election. (off the top of my head) Trump received 74 million in 2020. If Trump isn't on the ticket, look for the total to fall back well below 70 million as those non-traditional Republican voters stay home.

We are told the new round of Covid is about to start this fall. Masking, social distancing, etc. will be implemented.(not as successfully as last time) The powers that be will say it is not safe to go to the polls and push for more mail in balloting and more ballot harvesting will take place. More States will be pushed to allow this. The Democrats have election suits already filed. The Republican National Committee has done nothing to protect the system. There is a decent chance that only a massive populist groundswell can put a Republican in the Whitehouse and Trump is probably the only person who can create such a groundswell.

I know some here think I am not some massive Trump fan. I am not. I don't care for him as a person. In fact I prefer someone like DeSantis to be President. Yes, there are things I think Trump did great. There are promises he definitely kept. I think Trump did do what he thought was best for the average American. I also think he has been persecuted relentlessly since 2016. At this point I also think Trump is the only individual the Republican's can put forward that has a chance to win the election because without Trump, the Republican's loose the 10 million non-traditional votes that Trump drug into the tent.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

"That base includes independents, minorities, socially liberal Christians, blue collar/no collar workers, and conservative Democrats. Those voters will stay home and not vote if Trump is not on the ballot."

Just as there are those of us who will do the same if he is the one on the ballot...

 

[Wheels]

"That base includes independents, minorities, socially liberal Christians, blue collar/no collar workers, and conservative Democrats. Those voters will stay home and not vote if Trump is not on the ballot."

Just as there are those of us who will do the same if he is the one on the ballot...

That's a fair statement.

It doesn't change the fact that Trump brought 10 million more voters to a general election than any other Republican has ever done. The majority of those voters who are not traditional Republicans probably disappear if Trump is not on the ballot.

If you want Biden to win a second term or whoever the Democrats put forward that is certainly your prerogative.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

@Wheels ... I have great respect for your opinions, and how you conduct yourself on here. Genuinely.

Some of us - or at least me - are tired of settling for less. I want more dammit. And I feel like the American people deserve more.

I used to coach any number of HS and JH sports, and I am one of those "it ain't over 'til it's over" sorts. I fervently hope there's a 4th and long play that can save the day, yet, while there is still time.

 

[Tanks]

That's a fair statement.

It doesn't change the fact that Trump brought 10 million more voters to a general election than any other Republican has ever done. The majority of those voters who are not traditional Republicans probably disappear if Trump is not on the ballot.

If you want Biden to win a second term or whoever the Democrats put forward that is certainly your prerogative.

1. 2020 Presidential Election:
   • Democratic Candidate: Joe Biden
   • Popular Vote Total: Approximately 81.3 million votes
2. 2016 Presidential Election:
   • Democratic Candidate: Hillary Clinton
   • Popular Vote Total: Approximately 65.8 million votes
3. 2012 Presidential Election:
   • Democratic Candidate: Barack Obama (incumbent)
   • Popular Vote Total: Approximately 65.9 million votes

Trump also brought in ~16 million more votes against him than any other Republican has ever done. It is irrelevant how many votes he got while losing.

 

[Brent in Az]

Trumps poll numbers were bolstered by his indictments, and they will increase even more when he is found innocent.

If Trump becomes the nominee, and the Trump haters stay home, the democrats get 4 more years, and the republic will be dead.

Say hello to permanent totalitarianism.

 

[rookhawk]

That's a fair statement.

It doesn't change the fact that Trump brought 10 million more voters to a general election than any other Republican has ever done. The majority of those voters who are not traditional Republicans probably disappear if Trump is not on the ballot.

If you want Biden to win a second term or whoever the Democrats put forward that is certainly your prerogative.

@Wheels just because Trump got 80m votes doesn't change the fact he didn't and cannot get the votes that matter. (Referenced: electoral college map)

White Suburban Women and Independents are required for a Republican to win. He cannot get them, its who he lost in his reelection bid.

It's all moot to conservative readers here. No matter who runs, we'll plug our nose and vote for the more conservative than liberal on the general election ballot. But me and all my redneck hunting/fishing/military/union/church going friends don't count for a hill of beans. 100% of rural county wins by a republican is also known as a failure to become POTUS.

 

[mdwest]

Trumps poll numbers were bolstered by his indictments, and they will increase even more when he is found innocent.

If Trump becomes the nominee, and the Trump haters stay home, the democrats get 4 more years, and the republic will be dead.

Say hello to permanent totalitarianism.

and that is indeed the crux of the problem...

the vast majority of trump haters are going to stay home.. there is no convincing most otherwise..

so if trump takes the ticket... the democrats get 4 more years.. and the republic is dead..

the far better solution for the US if for Trump to drop out of the race and give some other candidate a fighting chance at the White House.. but I dont think Trumps ego is going to allow that to happen..

I sincerely hope I am proven wrong.. but I feel pretty certain that as long as Trump stays in the race, the Democrats could run a rotten zucchini (theyre practically running a vegetable now...)... and win the election..

If trump wins the seat on the R ticket.. a significant number of R's are staying home.. resulting in a D win..

If trump doesnt get the seat and runs independent.. a significant number of R's are going to vote independent.. neither the R's or the independents will have enough votes to win.. D's take the throne again..

If trump doesnt get the seat and then steps out but spends the rest of the election cycle raising hell about the remaining candidates and refuses to endorse whoever gets the R seat.. then his loyalists will stay home.. resulting in a D win..

The only solution at this point that I see is he drops out before he throws shit all over everyone else.. waits until a very clear front runner emerges.. and then endorses that front runner.. and then KEEPS HIS MOUTH SHUT from that point until the election is over... that MIGHT consolidate the vote and MAYBE the R's have a chance at a win..

 

[BSO Dave]

It is interesting that Fox has a panel of 8 Wisconsin Republican voters, 7 of which don't think Trump can win a general election.

That's not exactly what they said...

They didn't say that Trump couldn't win the general election... They said that after hearing DeSantis in the debate, they believed he would be most electable candidate in the eyes of the independent voters, therefore acknowledging that he (DeSantis) would have a better chance than Trump to actually beat Brandon or whatever other idiot democrat they decide to run. Point being that they indicated the willingness to break their loyalty for Trump or any of the other republican candidates to support a candidate that they felt was more appealing to swing voters.