Politics

[Wheels]

As an outsider looking in, it seems there is an internal war going on between the Russian military and Wagner. It seems one of three things will happen in the next couple years:

1. Prigozhin will be over the military and be Putin's successor.

2. Prigozhin will lead a coup and run Russia.

3. Prigozhin will be dead.

I lean toward 3 but have no clue.

There are definitely options worse than Putin.

Looks like the horsehair above Damocles broke.

What is visible a half world away is invisible when standing directly under the sword.

 

[bowjijohn]

Fair play though

He lasted 2 months

That’s 7 weeks and 6 days longer than I thought he had

 

[Inline6]

I'll never forget the conversation I had with my boss when Obama was running the first time around. I said no way in the world Obama gets elected people are not going to elect a man like that. He looked at me and said " I have seen this before the pendulum is swinging the other way. He is going to be elected" I thought that Oldman was out of touch with reality, turns out I was. After the second time Obama was elected, I turned off the news and stopped listening to the radio. Almost every election from that point forward I will turn on the news a little closer to election time. It's almost the same story with different characters.

I'm reading what a lot of you are writing here, some very educated individuals in this space and this forum in general (one of the reasons I like this place so much). The problem that I see with charging up a conservative base. We need to be charged up, the other side seems to make promises. In exchange for their vote they will get (insert social program here). Maybe I'm being naive in this way of thinking. It's not right, it does happen (Obama care). I understand on the surface, how do you reach the uneducated people. That is where a real message has power, the problem again who has that message? As a society, communication has really broken down. Cancel culture is trying to shut down anyone with an opinion different than theirs.

Now I do feel like that pendulum is possibly starting to swing back our way. I'm just hoping we have someone that can capitalize on the momentum. I'm not sure who that is?

All that to say thanks for all the information you all provide. It is educational and it is good prospective.

 

[Brent in Az]

Aiding the Ukraine war has cost the average American household $900 each.

I think it's time to cut the purse strings.

 

[Red Leg]

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.

cepa.org

Pretty good and I think accurate brief analysis from a logistics perspective from the Center for European Policy Analysis of the potential decisive effect of the Ukrainian counter offensive. If they can cut the supply lines to Crimea by the fall mud season, the Russian Army will have the same problem they had in Kherson (from which they were forced to evacuate) but on a far grander scale.

 

[Red Leg]

By doing expenditure math that way, COVID spending presumably cost each taxpayer $41,870. So by that form of analysis doing something actually in our national interests looks like a bargain to me. It is why the dividing by taxpayer is a political rather than analytical tool.

 

[sestoppelman]

I see a lot of articles saying Wagner chief dead, then you read the story. All the stories say the same thing. He was supposed to be on that plane, but so far nothing I have read confirms he was on the plane and there had been no identification of bodies that I am aware of.

I think its entirely possible he staged this event to get Putin off his back.

Could have his feet up on a table somewhere with a stogie in one hand and big glass of Vodka in the other, surrounded by babes for all anyone actually knows.

 

[Hunter4752001]

re the southern front in Ukraine:
While the article referred to by Red Leg is sound, I assess that the situation is actually even more positive. The recent gains by Ukraine have broken through the first of 3 Russian defensive lines. However the publicly available imagery, and troop reports, indicate that the remaining 2nd & 3rd lines are much less substantial than the first. Likewise, the reported Russian troop deployments suggest that Russia doesn't have forces in reserve with which to reinforce or replace the remaining frontline troops. For the last few weeks they at best have been trying to rotate troops from one crisis point to another. However Ukraine's tactics of pressuring multiple points at once has fundamentally locked those troops in position. Nothing is guarenteed, but its possible that the end may come quite rapidly.

 

[rookhawk]

I'll never forget the conversation I had with my boss when Obama was running the first time around. I said no way in the world Obama gets elected people are not going to elect a man like that. He looked at me and said " I have seen this before the pendulum is swinging the other way. He is going to be elected" I thought that Oldman was out of touch with reality, turns out I was. After the second time Obama was elected, I turned off the news and stopped listening to the radio. Almost every election from that point forward I will turn on the news a little closer to election time. It's almost the same story with different characters.

I'm reading what a lot of you are writing here, some very educated individuals in this space and this forum in general (one of the reasons I like this place so much). The problem that I see with charging up a conservative base. We need to be charged up, the other side seems to make promises. In exchange for their vote they will get (insert social program here). Maybe I'm being naive in this way of thinking. It's not right, it does happen (Obama care). I understand on the surface, how do you reach the uneducated people. That is where a real message has power, the problem again who has that message? As a society, communication has really broken down. Cancel culture is trying to shut down anyone with an opinion different than theirs.

Now I do feel like that pendulum is possibly starting to swing back our way. I'm just hoping we have someone that can capitalize on the momentum. I'm not sure who that is?

All that to say thanks for all the information you all provide. It is educational and it is good prospective.

I know scores of Republicans that believed that Obama might be the nail in the coffin of racism. While liberal on some issues, the idea of a "Kennedy democrat" that could permanently heal this nation was worth the compromise.

Obviously, history shows that he was a far leftist and an indecisive leader on foreign policy matters. Obviously, he inflamed pseudo-evidence of racism rather than eradicating all evidence of it and healing our nation for past wounds.

That's all hindsight now. But in the moment, many conservatives sacrificed positions of principle in the hopes that would be the end of a un-unified America.

I know many of those same conservatives that believe RFK Jr. might be the real deal to that aim as well, although without the racial "bonafides" of an African American president. Other than Affirmative action, I could live with most of RFK2's views in an effort to get an honest leader in this country.

I'm not a defender of Obama in any way nor did I vote for him, but I do think there were honest, ethical conservatives that did with good intentions.

 

[Newboomer]

re the southern front in Ukraine:
While the article referred to by Red Leg is sound, I assess that the situation is actually even more positive. The recent gains by Ukraine have broken through the first of 3 Russian defensive lines. However the publicly available imagery, and troop reports, indicate that the remaining 2nd & 3rd lines are much less substantial than the first. Likewise, the reported Russian troop deployments suggest that Russia doesn't have forces in reserve with which to reinforce or replace the remaining frontline troops. For the last few weeks they at best have been trying to rotate troops from one crisis point to another. However Ukraine's tactics of pressuring multiple points at once has fundamentally locked those troops in position. Nothing is guarenteed, but its possible that the end may come quite rapidly.

Good stategy. Divide and conquor. By hitting the Russians in several spots at once Ukrainian forces keep them vulnerable and unable to consolidate an effective defense.

 

[Hunter4752001]

re Prigozhin.

At this stage I would take the reports with a degree of caution. It wouldn't be the first time Prigozhin's death was reported, only to have him turn up alive some months later.

If he is indeed dead, the question is who ordered it. I think its a mistake to look at Russia as a monolith with Putin at the apex. There are many contending factions all vying for power. One of the main power centers is the Russian MOD. They are the only body with enough clout to hold real power.

Prigozhin has been in conflict with the MOD for many months. The Wagner advance on Moscow was more about his hated of the MOD than it was about Putin. Even then Prigozhin claimed it was undertaken to warn Putin about the MOD.

Most of Putin's political murders have been by 'spook' methods: poisons, falling out of buildings etc. If the reports are correct, Prigozhin's plane was shot down by a SAM. That has the hallmarks of a military mindset.

The loses in Ukraine, the Wagner 'revolt', economic hardships in Russia, drone strikes inside Russia, etc have all weakened Putin. If the MOD has taken out Prigozhin, was it at the orders of Putin or are they now acting independently. And if so, will Putin remain in place or be the next fatality.

 

[Ed Lally]

In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which Democracy is) always followed by a Dictatorship."

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."

 

[sestoppelman]

I know scores of Republicans that believed that Obama might be the nail in the coffin of racism. While liberal on some issues, the idea of a "Kennedy democrat" that could permanently heal this nation was worth the compromise.

Obviously, history shows that he was a far leftist and an indecisive leader on foreign policy matters. Obviously, he inflamed pseudo-evidence of racism rather than eradicating all evidence of it and healing our nation for past wounds.

That's all hindsight now. But in the moment, many conservatives sacrificed positions of principle in the hopes that would be the end of a un-unified America.

I know many of those same conservatives that believe RFK Jr. might be the real deal to that aim as well, although without the racial "bonafides" of an African American president. Other than Affirmative action, I could live with most of RFK2's views in an effort to get an honest leader in this country.

I'm not a defender of Obama in any way nor did I vote for him, but I do think there were honest, ethical conservatives that did with good intentions.

I knew from day one who Obama was, never a doubt in my mind he was a Marxist a hole and wrong for America.

 

[Brent in Az]

$33 trillion in debt. They can just print more money and keep driving up inflation. Send the Ukraine more money under the guise of national interests.
Who's interests exactly? Certainly not mine.
Hell.....we probably haven't even paid off the Gulf war.
As far as the Covid costs, send the bill to China, and the Democrats. They were the ones that conspired to unleash that shit anyway. The evil that men do.

 

[Brent in Az]

I knew from day one who Obama was, never a doubt in my mind he was a Marxist a hole and wrong for America.

He was the token black man that the Democrats were looking for. Obama's shadow government is running this country. Satan's minions.

 

[geoff rath]

This is an example of what I believe is the real "swamp." This is not legislation and not directly a political decision, bill, or recommendation. It is a regulatory ruling by faceless bureaucrats made with minimal public input through an obscure comment period. And frankly, most urban millennials, fully convinced oil and gas are evil products created by even more villainous corporate overlords, will cheer the decision as a great step in protecting whales, all of which (they have no idea what a Rices whale might be) they are convinced are on the brink of extinction.

To be fair, I had never heard of the Rices Whale even having grown up on the Gulf coast. But apparently there are only about 100 left.

Australia is being ruled by such back-room bureaucraps/advisors who are quickly destroying a once-proud, independent nation. They espouse the "no coal, no gas" mantra, pushing renewables, despite the after-effects of creating and disposing of the worn-out batteries, solar panels, windfarm hardware.

 

[geoff rath]

A variation on Rich Men North of Richmond.

View attachment 553021

Oh GOD NO!! He's playin' a Dobro!!!

 

[geoff rath]

In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which Democracy is) always followed by a Dictatorship."

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."

Australia is presently deeply entrenched in stage 7 ...; The US, may be 5??

 

[Wheels]

Bongino in attached video says Trump should not post bond and make Fulton County DA send him to jail. Then let Secret Service take over the jail.

This election cycle will be memorable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694154358387077465

 

[jpr9954]

I knew from day one who Obama was, never a doubt in my mind he was a Marxist a hole and wrong for America.

As my in-laws lived in Illinois, I was watching the 2004 Illinois senatorial election to replace Sen. Peter Fitzgerald closely.

The Republican nominee until he stepped down, Jack Ryan, was the perfect candidate. Local kid made good, Ivy League grad, partner at Goldman-Sachs, gave that up to teach for free in an inner city school, could self-finance his race, and the list goes on. Unfortunately, his ex, the actress Jeri Ryan made outrageous allegations in the custody paperwork as often happens. Somewhere, somehow, the Obama campaign got wind of it and used the newspapers to get sealed divorce proceedings opened. Both Jack and Jeri Ryan had requested that it be kept sealed but a Democrat judge opened it "in the public interest." That was the kiss of death for Ryan and Alan Keys jumped in.

This was not a first for Obama and his team. He was not even the leading Democrat when he entered the race. He used virtually the same tactic against the leader in the Dem primary and that guy was out.

The bottom line was that Obama and his team used the courts and the media to sabotage the stronger candidates. Without that, we never would have had a President Obama.