Politics

[Tbitty]

Gentlemen, may I propose that we suspend the antics and back and forth. If you wish to continue your "discussion", perhaps a PM exchange instead of posting in the open forums.

 

[VertigoBE]

A feint is a feint. Feigned disarray might be innovative ... but it might work. Ukraine should be careful about overextending themselves.

The Georgian fake stab in the back worked well enough (Putin blowing up Moscow apartment buildings and blaming it on terrorists). Fake drone attacks was an attempt at a repeat performance. I don't think many were fooled. Ukraine was always warned support from the West depended on no offense on Russian soil.

if all these 24hrs would just be theater, then this was the worst conceived idea possible. There is no way that this was orchestrated.

What I'm very interested to hear about, is who else in the Russian upper military/government will be testing their flying skills out of building windows in the next few weeks. Prigozhin might seem like a brute, but he is far from an idiot. Looks like he was counting on support from others within Russian government and when this crumbled or did not materialize, he had no choice but to accept the deal from Lukashenko. Or risk becoming what he was decrying, because had that column reached Moscow, blood would have been running in the streets.

So who was close to Prigozhin and currently to Putin, but unhappy with Putin? I would avoid anything above 1 story buildings.

 

[VertigoBE]

I also caught a slice of an interview with a woman from the Ukrainian government, who took advantage of her time on air, to underline something very specific. Of course she was insisting on getting more tanks and fighter jets. But she was insisting on European countries to invest into their munitions production facilities. Basically, "never mind those tanks and air planes, go build ammunition factories".

I had not realized the EU was getting so close to running out.

 

[BSO Dave]

Gentlemen, may I propose that we suspend the antics and back and forth. If you wish to continue your "discussion", perhaps a PM exchange instead of posting in the open forums.

I am posting my opinions and the justification for them. The "antics" are just a playful added bonus that occur here quite regularly...There is a moderator here who decides what antics are and are not acceptable....

If you feel that it's of no value to you, there is an ignore button you can use or you are free to change the channel... Have a great day!

 

[Major Bonkers]

Gentlemen - I'm with Tbitty. I'm all for the free expression of views, but it's becoming boring for the rest of us. The abusive nature of some of the posts is unpleasant. There are better things to do than arguing with strangers on the internet!

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

I think they are in a bit of a fix. I obviously do not know, but the chatter on the various sites would leave one to believe that they have used their new armor to maximize the number of modernized brigades. If so, then they likely have few if any reserve platforms to replace destroyed or heavily damaged equipment. Those platforms will be essential if they are to eventually exploit a true breakthrough. They already had a huge logistics challenge due to the large number of separate logistics chains necessary to maintain, British, German, French, US, former Warsaw Pact, and even Swedish armored vehicles.

So after the initial 48-72 hours, it looks like they changed their tactical approach rather dramatically. I would call what they are doing now infiltration tactics. They now seem to be using their light infantry, supported by drone-dropped munitions and mortars rather than armor, to systematically clear Russian defensive positions. Artillery, particularly precision munitions, seem to be focused on Russia's artillery and battlefield munition stores.

This has historical precedence. During WWI, major attacks were typically preceded by hours, if not days, of preparatory artillery fire. Over time, both sides learned to avoid casualties by using deep dugouts, from which the infantry would emerge to engage the enemy attack when the artillery fire lifted. During the spring offensive of 1918 when Imperial Germany almost won the war they employed infiltration tactics. Infantry, without use of massive arty fires simply crept close to the ailed trenches (typically at night) and then stormed them at first light without warning - hence the name "storm troopers."

If, and it is a meaningful if, the Ukrainian infantry can create a gap in the main defensive belt (which they have yet to reach), then I would expect to see their mechanized formations to pour through. It will take time.

Below is an example of a precision strike against Russian artillery - in this case Grad Launchers caught in a hide position and hit with Excalibur 155 GPS guided rounds.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14hyd2g

And an artillery field support location for ammunition

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14iinh1

Clearly there is no silver bullet on either side, just a strategy of finesseful jab and poke to wear a hole. None too promising.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Gentlemen - I'm with Tbitty. I'm all for the free expression of views, but it's becoming boring for the rest of us. The abusive nature of some of the posts is unpleasant. There are better things to do than arguing with strangers on the internet!

Agreed. Ignoring you for this current silliness isn’t an option either as we enjoy your other posts.

 

[Red Leg]

if all these 24hrs would just be theater, then this was the worst conceived idea possible. There is no way that this was orchestrated.

What I'm very interested to hear about, is who else in the Russian upper military/government will be testing their flying skills out of building windows in the next few weeks. Prigozhin might seem like a brute, but he is far from an idiot. Looks like he was counting on support from others within Russian government and when this crumbled or did not materialize, he had no choice but to accept the deal from Lukashenko. Or risk becoming what he was decrying, because had that column reached Moscow, blood would have been running in the streets.

So who was close to Prigozhin and currently to Putin, but unhappy with Putin? I would avoid anything above 1 story buildings.

There is a lot of this sort of chatter openly posted over on the Russian blogger channels. It is not the sort of thing that will make Putin, the MOD, or FSB comfortable. Click on the full thread link (show more).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673013402132705285

 

[Hunter4752001]

The most significant issues to me are:

Wagner forces traveled from Rostov almost to the border of the Moscow region without serious opposition except for a few air asserts. This suggest that the Army formations and border forces were either not available due the Ukraine war or had agreed to 'sit this one out' .

I don't believe this was a spur of the moment incident. I suspect that Prigozhin had already established assurances from various military commanders before commencing the operation. He may be unstable, but he isn't a fool.

The populace in the southern regions such as Rostov supported what was happening. Plenty of video evidence of the crowds cheering "Wagner Wagner Wagner" even as Wagner withdrew. Maybe this reflects the divide between the regions and the Moscow/St Petersberg elites. Maybe it reflects the fact the the population closest to the fighting know the reality of what is happening in Ukraine.

Given the need of Russian leadership to be "strong" I suspect the negotiated outcome reflects a situation in which the battle of Moscow may have gone either way. If either had the resources to crush their opposition they would have been compelled to do so. The risk of spilling Russian blood has never bothered either Putin or Prigozhin before.

I doubt that either Prigozhin or Putin have a future. Prigozhin is now identified as a threat to Putin, or whoever replaces Putin. Putin has been shown to be presiding over a house of cards just waiting for the wind to blow it away. The population has been exposed to a powerful message that everything they were told was a lie.

 

[Red Leg]

The most significant issues to me are:

Wagner forces traveled from Rostov almost to the border of the Moscow region without serious opposition except for a few air asserts. This suggest that the Army formations and border forces were either not available due the Ukraine war or had agreed to 'sit this one out' .

I don't believe this was a spur of the moment incident. I suspect that Prigozhin had already established assurances from various military commanders before commencing the operation. He may be unstable, but he isn't a fool.

The populace in the southern regions such as Rostov supported what was happening. Plenty of video evidence of the crowds cheering "Wagner Wagner Wagner" even as Wagner withdrew. Maybe this reflects the divide between the regions and the Moscow/St Petersberg elites. Maybe it reflects the fact the the population closest to the fighting know the reality of what is happening in Ukraine.

Given the need of Russian leadership to be "strong" I suspect the negotiated outcome reflects a situation in which the battle of Moscow may have gone either way. If either had the resources to crush their opposition they would have been compelled to do so. The risk of spilling Russian blood has never bothered either Putin or Prigozhin before.

I doubt that either Prigozhin or Putin have a future. Prigozhin is now identified as a threat to Putin, or whoever replaces Putin. Putin has been shown to be presiding over a house of cards just waiting for the wind to blow it away. The population has been exposed to a powerful message that everything they were told was a lie.

My "favorite" propagandist has had a bad couple of days. I am confident that Russia had nothing meaningful to put between the Wagner Group and Moscow. People can believe what they want with respect to Russian capability but math is inexorable. Oryx gave up the counting of losses a couple of days ago, but as of then, Russia had lost 2061 tanks confirmed by photo or video imagery. That of course does not count maintenance losses or those that simply were not filmed. Most conservative analysts put the number a quarter to a third higher. The consensus of those same analysts suggest that the Russian Army started the war with around 3300 operational tanks. They have been trying to pull tanks out of storage, but the vast majority of those are very old designs. A few new ones have come off the assembly lines but with ever more primitive target acquisition systems due to sanctions. In short, every operational tank in the Russian Army has been committed to Ukraine.

If judged by nothing else but their losses, the Russian air component, particularly K52 attack helicopters, seem to have fought bravely. But it seems ever clearer, there was nothing to really stop an armored led assault into Moscow.

I am becoming more convinced that something did not happen in either the Kremlin or the MOD or the FSB that Prigozhin expected in the way of support. Because his "army" could likely have penetrated Moscow itself, he likely had enough leverage to achieve a stand down.

We'll see how it plays out.

By the way, over on the kook fringe right wing sites, they are convinced this was all an elaborate conspiracy cooked up between Biden, Zelensky, and Putin to take Hunter Biden out of the news cycle. Can't even make it up.

 

[sestoppelman]

My "favorite" propagandist has had a bad couple of days. I am confident that Russia had nothing meaningful to put between the Wagner Group and Moscow. People can believe what they want with respect to Russian capability but math is inexorable. Oryx gave up the counting of losses a couple of days ago, but as of then, Russia had lost 2061 tanks confirmed by photo or video imagery. That of course does not count maintenance losses or those that simply were not filmed. Most conservative analysts put the number a quarter to a third higher. The consensus of those same analysts suggest that the Russian Army started the war with around 3300 operational tanks. They have been trying to pull tanks out of storage, but the vast majority of those are very old designs. A few new ones have come off the assembly lines but with ever more primitive target acquisition systems due to sanctions. In short, every operational tank in the Russian Army has been committed to Ukraine.

If judged by nothing else but their losses, the Russian air component, particularly K52 attack helicopters, seem to have fought bravely. But it seems ever clearer, there was nothing to really stop an armored led assault into Moscow.

I am becoming more convinced that something did not happen in either the Kremlin or the MOD or the FSB that Prigozhin expected in the way of support. Because his "army" could likely have penetrated Moscow itself, he likely had enough leverage to achieve a stand down.

We'll see how it plays out.

By the way, over on the kook fringe right wing sites, they are convinced this was all an elaborate conspiracy cooked up between Biden, Zelensky, and Putin to take Hunter Biden out of the news cycle. Can't even make it up.

While it would certainly be a huge stretch to suggest some sort of conspiracy amongst all of those idiots, the fact remains, anything in the news cycle will be used by whomever can see where it works to their advantage in funneling the news they want known the most, and quaff that which they would like to see go away.
To think otherwise is naive in the extreme.

 

[Red Leg]

While it would certainly be a huge stretch to suggest some sort of conspiracy amongst all of those idiots, the fact remains, anything in the news cycle will be used by whomever can see where it works to their advantage in funneling the news they want known the most, and quaff that which they would like to see go away.
To think otherwise is naive in the extreme.

I'll beg an exception for the term "idiot" if the intent is to apply it to Zelensky. From the perspective of Ukrainian national interests, he has and is performing brilliantly.

But a bug yes if the MSM is reluctant to dig into Biden (or Garland) - but even that seems to be shifting a bit.

 

[Red Leg]

If the translation is correct (or even if it isn't and it is a dub) this is funny. Doesn't sound Russian. Polish?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673034622286938112

 

[Ray B]

The only idiots that I see are those who continue to vote for and provide support to the most corrupt administration in the history of the United States. Those politicians, industry leaders and media managers are quite smart.

 

[LivingTheDream]

If the translation is correct (or even if it isn't and it is a dub) this is funny. Doesn't sound Russian. Polish?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673034622286938112

This is an old video, it get used as memes in a lot of internet circles. Whoever did the captions for this version is great.

 

[LivingTheDream]

My "favorite" propagandist has had a bad couple of days. I am confident that Russia had nothing meaningful to put between the Wagner Group and Moscow. People can believe what they want with respect to Russian capability but math is inexorable. Oryx gave up the counting of losses a couple of days ago, but as of then, Russia had lost 2061 tanks confirmed by photo or video imagery. That of course does not count maintenance losses or those that simply were not filmed. Most conservative analysts put the number a quarter to a third higher. The consensus of those same analysts suggest that the Russian Army started the war with around 3300 operational tanks. They have been trying to pull tanks out of storage, but the vast majority of those are very old designs. A few new ones have come off the assembly lines but with ever more primitive target acquisition systems due to sanctions. In short, every operational tank in the Russian Army has been committed to Ukraine.

If judged by nothing else but their losses, the Russian air component, particularly K52 attack helicopters, seem to have fought bravely. But it seems ever clearer, there was nothing to really stop an armored led assault into Moscow.

I am becoming more convinced that something did not happen in either the Kremlin or the MOD or the FSB that Prigozhin expected in the way of support. Because his "army" could likely have penetrated Moscow itself, he likely had enough leverage to achieve a stand down.

We'll see how it plays out.

By the way, over on the kook fringe right wing sites, they are convinced this was all an elaborate conspiracy cooked up between Biden, Zelensky, and Putin to take Hunter Biden out of the news cycle. Can't even make it up.

I believe this is spot on from what I have been digging through on reddit and telegram. He could have taken Moscow, there was nothing stopping him. He probably was moving too fast. But once he took the Kremlin, then what, he was a dead man and all this guys were dead as well. Hard to spend your billions from war crimes if you are dead.

He was expecting some support, or someone to flip and it didn't happen. Once he hit the point of no return, and without someone flipping or the backing of oligarchs, it was over and he knew it. That deal was made pretty quick.

 

[Red Leg]

This is an old video, it get used as memes in a lot of internet circles. Whoever did the captions for this version is great.

I suspected so. The hair was very nineties.

 

[sestoppelman]

I'll beg an exception for the term "idiot" if the intent is to apply it to Zelensky. From the perspective of Ukrainian national interests, he has and is performing brilliantly.

But a bug yes if the MSM is reluctant to dig into Biden (or Garland) - but even that seems to be shifting a bit.

Well, I grant you that, I used the term idiot a bit too collectively. I didnt have Zelensky in mind.

 

[bowjijohn]

Still nothing from Putin

He does appear to be in hiding

Makes you wonder from what and from whom

Knives out in Kremlin world ?

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Germany to station 4,000 troops in Lithuania – DW – 06/26/2023

Vilnius has repeatedly called on Berlin to deploy permanent combat troops to the country, which borders the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

www.dw.com