Politics

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

@Red Leg , is Ukraine going to be able to withstand this onslaught?

 

[Wheels]

 

[Red Leg]

@Red Leg , is Ukraine going to be able to withstand this onslaught?

I am not sure what you are asking specifically Kevin. If we are talking about the infrastructure attacks, then the Russian missile and drone bombardment is nothing like what Londoners survived during the Blitz or what the Japanese and German people withstood during the last one and two years of the war respectively. I suspect the defenders of Stalingrad will bear up.

Ukraine is also doing a remarkably good job restoring at least partial water and electricity to the major cities following these attacks. Even acknowledging the likelihood of deliberately optimistic reporting, they are clearly knocking down over half the inbound cruise missiles with their current ADA systems. Russia has also used up a huge proportion of their prewar missile stocks, and their capacity to build new ones is severely limited due to sanctions. It is why they have cut a deal for the Iranian explosive drones and seem to be trying to also acquire Iranian ballistic missiles. We‘ll see if that comes to pass and how effective they are.

If, on the other hand, we are talking about a winter Russian offensive against Kiev and/or to regain ground lost this summer, I remain skeptical of its real military potential. The initial assault used Russia’s best formations, best equipment, and achieved operational surprise. It failed. Whatever the real casualty total (I think all evidence points to total Russian killed and wounded as north of 200k) that army literally no longer exists. A huge proportion of their modernized equipment is also gone - whether destroyed or repurposed by Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been husbanding its best mechanized formations. Roughly 10,000 fully trained to NATO standard troops are returning to the field army each month. Their artillery, though troubled by the logistics headaches associated with multiple platforms from different countries, is winning the indirect fire war. In short the capability gap, the correlation of forces, is far more in Ukraine’s favor now than ten months ago. I doubt the Russian MOD is nearly as sanguine about such an offensive as Putin is.

Unless I am mistaken, the more likely successful winter offensive operations will be carried out by Ukraine.

 

[mark-hunter]

@Red Leg , is Ukraine going to be able to withstand this onslaught?

I am more pessimistic then red leg.

As per latest - Ukrainian losses (though carefully not officially reported in propaganda part of war) are estimated being at least equal to Russian. Being 100k casulties on both sides.

Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides

The estimates are the highest offered yet by a Western official on the months-long conflict.

www.bbc.com

I dont know about long range weapons, etc.. but I equal ordnance (and capability) to cost.

Russian military annual budget till before the war was cca 67 billion dollars.
American military aid to Ukraina, in ten months of war was CCA 40+ billion USD, and total about 68 billion. (not accounting EU military and other aid)

Aid to Ukraine Explained in Six Charts

Six charts show where the $68 billion of U.S. aid to Ukraine goes, how much of it buys weapons, how long it will take to spend the money, and what other countries are doing. With no settlement in sight, the war will go on for many months, as will U.S. aid to support it.

www.csis.org

As a result of such support which is close to equal of till-now russian annual military budget we have:
- 20% od Ukraina occupied.

- more- or - less steady front lines
(Mexican stand off, with full Russian annual budget already invested - how can that be?)

- Continuous bombing of Ukraine infrastructure, while Russian infrastructure and supply lines from mainland mainly intact.

Bombing of infrastructure of the country, reminds me of bombing campaign against Serbia in 1999, during clinton administration. It took 2 and half months of infrastructurale bombing campaing for country to capitulate (without international support).

Training on thousands of Ukranian troops in western countries, yes we have.
But about training of troops in Russia we dont know about. (i dont think they sit with thumb in their #$%ss. waiting for cnn news to explain they are lossing the war

So, now what I think, this is now war of will, with unscertain outcome:

The will from Russia to keep (expensive) pressure, and the will of free world to supply Ukraina with materials.
Question is for how long? Who will give in first?

Mainland Europe is now facing first very cold winter, with lacks of various fuels, first restrictions on heating already effective. (city heating in my town will not be started till temperatures reach 5 degrees C)
Is Europe (tax paying citizens) ready to support and pay for one more winter of war?

This can easily change political attitude in continental Europe in the long run.
Civilians soon get tired of war.
One more russian annual budget to invest by western countries next year?

Some western officials, are even considering referendum in occupied territory, in case no other solution is to be achieved.
See below:

It's time for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, Kissinger says

The time is approaching for a negotiated peace in Ukraine to reduce the risk of another devastating world war, veteran U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger said.

www.cnbc.com

Kissinger, now 99, suggested that if it proved impossible to return to the status quo established in 2014, internationally supervised referendums in territory claimed by Russia could be an option.

All, in all. I am pessimistic. I give at this moment 50-50 chances.

 

[Red Leg]

I am more pessimistic then red leg.

As per latest - Ukrainian losses (though carefully not officially reported in propaganda part of war) are estimated being at least equal to Russian. Being 100k casulties on both sides.

Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides

The estimates are the highest offered yet by a Western official on the months-long conflict.

www.bbc.com

I dont know about long range weapons, etc.. but I equal ordnance (and capability) to cost.

Russian military annual budget till before the war was cca 67 billion dollars.
American military aid to Ukraina, in ten months of war was CCA 40+ billion USD, and total about 68 billion. (not accounting EU military and other aid)

Aid to Ukraine Explained in Six Charts

Six charts show where the $68 billion of U.S. aid to Ukraine goes, how much of it buys weapons, how long it will take to spend the money, and what other countries are doing. With no settlement in sight, the war will go on for many months, as will U.S. aid to support it.

www.csis.org

As a result of such support which is close to equal of till-now russian annual military budget we have:
- 20% od Ukraina occupied.

- more- or - less steady front lines
(Mexican stand off, with full Russian annual budget already invested - how can that be?)

- Continuous bombing of Ukraine infrastructure, while Russian infrastructure and supply lines from mainland mainly intact.

Bombing of infrastructure of the country, reminds me of bombing campaign against Serbia in 1999, during clinton administration. It took 2 and half months of infrastructurale bombing campaing for country to capitulate (without international support).

Training on thousands of Ukranian troops in western countries, yes we have.
But about training of troops in Russia we dont know about. (i dont think they sit with thumb in their #$%ss. waiting for cnn news to explain they are lossing the war

So, now what I think, this is now war of will, with unscertain outcome:

The will from Russia to keep (expensive) pressure, and the will of free world to supply Ukraina with materials.
Question is for how long? Who will give in first?

Mainland Europe is now facing first very cold winter, with lacks of various fuels, first restrictions on heating already effective. (city heating in my town will not be started till temperatures reach 5 degrees C)
Is Europe (tax paying citizens) ready to support and pay for one more winter of war?

This can easily change political attitude in continental Europe in the long run.
Civilians soon get tired of war.
One more russian annual budget to invest by western countries next year?

Some western officials, are even considering referendum in occupied territory, in case no other solution is to be achieved.
See below:

It's time for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, Kissinger says

The time is approaching for a negotiated peace in Ukraine to reduce the risk of another devastating world war, veteran U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger said.

www.cnbc.com

Kissinger, now 99, suggested that if it proved impossible to return to the status quo established in 2014, internationally supervised referendums in territory claimed by Russia could be an option.

All, in all. I am pessimistic. I give at this moment 50-50 chances.

You bring up some very valid points, particularly with respect to the West's willingness to maintain at least this level of support for Ukraine over the long haul.

Some reasons why I believe our assessments are different.

First, with respect to casualties. I have no earthly idea what "message" Milley was trying to convey. It has perplexed all of my interlocuters over the last couple of days; apparently, even the SECDEF during the press conference. Most generally accepted analysis of the war to date puts total Ukrainian casualties (KIA, wounded, captured and missing) between 60 and 100k with the vast majority believing 60-70k is about right. Ukrainian KIA estimates range between 15 and 30K and again, the majority estimates fall around 20K. That would support a 3 or 4 to 1 wounded to KIA ratio.

Those same analysts place total Russian casualties (inclusive of DPR separatists) as ranging between 150 - 300K with most accepting around 200K. I personally think that this is likely, even conservative, simply because Russia has attempted to maintain the attack in areas where it has not already been defeated and forced to withdraw. Those sorts of casualty ratios are inherent in offensive operations. Combine that with Russia's rudimentary casualty treatment capability, easily lead to KIA estimates of between 50 - 80K.

Miley also offered up the idea that winter would result in a pause in combat operations that could be leveraged for negotiations. As I noted in my response to Kevin, I would expect Ukraine to attempt to take advantage of the frozen terrain to launch further attacks against Russian positions north and south of the Bakhmut region where Russian offensive efforts are currently focused at horrific cost and perhaps toward Mriupol. We will see over the next few weeks.

I think you create a false analogy with respect to annual defense budgets or costs. Let me explain.

Russia started this war with a modernized and reorganized army built upon the Battalion Tactical Group concept. They had equipped this force with approximately 2500 - 3000 modernized T72/ T80/T90 main battle tank variants and 6-8,000 armored fighting vehicle variants. That army was the result of nearly two decades of defense expenditures. I would urge anyone interested to review the latest Oryx estimates of losses for both sides.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Entries are not associated with any pronouncement of either side. Rather, they represent tallies from open source photographic or video evidence. By definition these totals can only represent a portion of actual losses. However, these alone show Russia has lost nearly 1600 of their modernized tanks. I would be stunned if actual losses weren't well north of 2200. Those losses would explain the recent appearance of T64's on the battlefield as Russia attempts to employ 50 year old vehicles to make up for such losses.

Back to the budget argument. It took two-decades of such budgets to create what they have lost over the last ten months. To put it bluntly, their pre-war ground forces establishment no longer exists. Their annual budgets will do little to address such catastrophic losses for a very long time to come.

With respect to replacements for Russia's huge personnel casualty totals, the 300 thousand recently mobilized have indeed not been sitting around with their thumbs up their backsides. The average time from arrival at the mobilization point to deployment on the frontline seems to be about three weeks. They have been thrown into the fight with virtually no training, poor equipment, outdated or non-existent body armor, and now insufficient winter clothing. Even the propogandists over on networks like RT have been unable to ignore completely this criminal employment and waste of manpower.

It also doesn't take much research to determine that Russian morale on the frontlines is pretty abysmal and that Ukrainian forces remain highly motivated to secure their country's right to self-determination. Napoleon's observation is as true to day as it was before Austerlitz. "Morale is to material as is the ratio of three to one." As the teeth gnashing about fighting "all of NATO" continues over on RT and the Telegram channel, it is instructive to remember that Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill and worse without being provided a single fighter plane or modern main battle tank from the Western Alliance.

All that said, I think we would both agree, this war will indeed end in some sort of negotiated settlement. If for no other reason, neither army has the combat power to dictate peace in the other's capital. I believe it may take Putin until the spring to realize this fact, but I have no doubt it is becoming clear to the MOD, FSB, and GRU. Kissinger's recommendation - essentially return to the pre-war territorial status quo ante and go from there is not unreasonable. However, Ukraine and Russia have both rejected the idea.

Before a real negotiation takes place, one side or the other must believe its negotiating position is deteriorating and there is little recourse to change those conditions other than talk. Again, if my read on the changing correlation of forces is correct, it will be Russia and not Ukraine that will reach that point first. A complicating factor for Russia would be further Ukrainian battlefield success that went beyond the pre-war demarcation lines.

Whatever our personal prognostications, we will likely know much more by the spring thaw.

 

[Red Leg]

This is a long read and not altogether easy because it is translated from Russian. This fellow posts fairly regularly on Telegram and has become very critical of Russian leadership if not the war itself. It came to attention because it was shared by Igor Girkin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin who claims the title of Minister of Defense of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic. He is considered a Russian nationalist and ever more bitter critic of the prosecution of the Special Military Operation. It offers an inside view of many of the conclusions that have been reached in the West with respect to Russian military competence. It also touches on assumptions about a Ukrainian winter offensive.

WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

Russian-English language translation of intercepted call & other materials from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to improve understanding of the conflict for the broader Western audience.

wartranslated.com

 

[Doug3006]

Mayor Adams of NYC is pleading for Federal aid in response to a planned influx of as many as 1,000 migrants week if Title 42 is lifted. NY is already struggling to house and feed the 30,000 already in city shelters. Without more money from Washington, the city might have to cut back on services to New Yorkers….according to hizzoner.

How must Oscar Lester, the mayor of El Paso, feel about this. El Paso has 1/12 the population of NYC and is facing a DAILY influx of 2,300 migrants. That’s 16 times the rate of NYC. This, thanks to the malignant ineptitude of the Biden administration.

 

[steve white]

Mayor Adams of NYC is pleading for Federal aid in response to a planned influx of as many as 1,000 migrants week if Title 42 is lifted. NY is already struggling to house and feed the 30,000 already in city shelters. Without more money from Washington, the city might have to cut back on services to New Yorkers….according to hizzoner.

How must Oscar Lester, the mayor of El Paso, feel about this. El Paso has 1/12 the population of NYC and is facing a DAILY influx of 2,300 migrants. That’s 16 times the rate of NYC. This, thanks to the malignant ineptitude of the Biden administration.

I hope Gov Abbot keeps busing them up there, lol

 

[Tanner Lee]

I know we discuss the Ukraine war on here quite a bit but I just wanted to offer up what the war looks like to me currently. I am open to other opinions and if my thoughts are wrong I am open to having my mind changed.

Right now the war looks like it has entered an acceptable diplomatic solution. The lines have become very stagnate and I really don't see any major movements happening in the near future. I know this is partially due to the change of the seasons and right now the winter campaign season is just beginning. But the lines are now in a more suitable position for defense and the Russians can now concentrate their units better. The withdrawal from Kherson freed up a lot of troops on both sides but it also relieved pressure on the Russian supply infrastructure.

At this point in the war, both sides have achieved major objectives which both sides can parade over. The Ukrainians despite what the whole world thought have had the courage to fight and preserve their country, in so doing establishing themselves as a nation, and a people. They have won their independence, and their right to exist. The Ukrainian people can be filled with pride knowing this, that they have defended their homes from the historic invaders, the Russians.

The Russians have won multiple different objectives as well, they have taken land they view to be theirs, and have brought ethnic Russians under the motherland. As Ted Cruz pointed out in an interview earlier this year the Russians have some of the best propagandists in the world. Putin will be able to drum the propaganda up and show the Russian people they have won their objective, despite them really not.

The war needs to end, and it isn't in the western leaders' best interest to see a political change in Russia because they fear the risk of missing weapons from the nuclear arsenal of the Russian Federation. The reason I believe this is a big factor is that during the chaos of the 90s the west funded the protection of the nuclear arsenals to avoid anything going missing. I do believe this to be a major point of concern in western leadership because the media panics anytime there is any language around the world of nuclear anything weapons, power plants etc.

As I have said before the war needs to end, it is a slaughter, too many sons, fathers, and brothers, won't becoming home to their families. I know this is part of the war but we can never lose sight of that when we discuss the conflict. I don't think anyone here disagrees with that and I know there are some wars that must be fought, war is something that at times is necessary and must happen.

My final thought is when this war ends the Ukrainians need to hold their government accountable and corruption must be pulled out of their country or as the old saying goes they won the war but they lost the peace. I am concerned that the Ukrainian people have fought and died for corrupt tyrants who used them to enrich themselves.

I will leave that there, once again I might be entirely wrong about what I have said and I am open to hearing other opinions.

 

[spike.t]

The power of propaganda and controlling the media...

BBC News - Ice soldiers mark Russia's very patriotic Christmas

Ice soldiers mark Russia's very patriotic Christmas

A Siberian city is marking Christmas with ice statues of soldiers. But not all locals back the war.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[RTG]

Congress Releases $1.7 Trillion, 4,155-Page Omnibus Bill

Congressional appropriators dropped the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill at 1:30 A.M. ET Tuesday, giving lawmakers days to read it.

www.breitbart.com

Just in time for Christmas, a 4,155 page omnibus spending bill! Mitch McConnell says this is a win for republicans. Let's look at what it does:

• It adds another trillion to the national debt.
• Increases inflation
• Increases the baseline budget by 36% going forward. Everything in this, will be a fight to undo.
• In makes permanent the Covid welfare with no work requirements. This is why 7 million men are out of the workforce since 2019. They make the same, or more, on welfare than in the workforce.
• It takes the 2023 budget out of the hands of the incoming republican congress, thus eliminating the majority of 'purse string' oversight and control.

So, who thinks Mitch McConnell is on the side of America or the American people? And if your answer is no, shouldn't you be asking who he actually works to represent? Or should we just continue to watch Ukraine?

 

[jpr9954]

Sounds like what Sam Bankman-Fried did with both Dem and Rep politicians.

 

[Red Leg]

Congress Releases $1.7 Trillion, 4,155-Page Omnibus Bill

Congressional appropriators dropped the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill at 1:30 A.M. ET Tuesday, giving lawmakers days to read it.

www.breitbart.com

Just in time for Christmas, a 4,155 page omnibus spending bill! Mitch McConnell says this is a win for republicans. Let's look at what it does:

• It adds another trillion to the national debt.
• Increases inflation
• Increases the baseline budget by 36% going forward. Everything in this, will be a fight to undo.
• In makes permanent the Covid welfare with no work requirements. This is why 7 million men are out of the workforce since 2019. They make the same, or more, on welfare than in the workforce.
• It takes the 2023 budget out of the hands of the incoming republican congress, thus eliminating the majority of 'purse string' oversight and control.

So, who thinks Mitch McConnell is on the side of America or the American people? And if your answer is no, shouldn't you be asking who he actually works to represent? Or should we just continue to watch Ukraine?

I think we should diligently pay attention to both.

Among the worst things about this is the failure to reinstate the welfare work requirement. It took a mid-term shellacking like didn't occur this time to get these rules in place over Democrat objections. We may never see it change again.

 

[Wheels]

 

[RTG]

I think we should diligently pay attention to both.

Among the worst things about this is the failure to reinstate the welfare work requirement. It took a mid-term shellacking like didn't occur this time to get these rules in place over Democrat objections. We may never see it change again.

Agreed. Ronald Reagan first proposed welfare work requirements at a Governors convention in 1967. It was voted down 49-1. It took 29 years of constant, dedicated messaging to finally get the heart of Reagan's idea passed through congress.

The successful 1996 Welfare Reform Act was one of the first targets of the Obama administration. Neutered first by various stimulus bills in 2009. It was repealed completely by Obama in 2012.

 

[Doug3006]

Fiscal prudence used to be a Republican competency. It’s looking like the Republicans no longer stand for much of anything. Recent polling suggests a major factor in the poor midterm outcome was that the Republicans couldn’t put forth a plan or a strategy. They just hoped that not being a Democrat was good enough. It isn’t near good enough. How about a clearly stated national agenda including elements like: balancing the budget, strengthening the military, supporting our allies, getting people off their a$$ and back to work, closing the border?

 

[SaintPanzer]

• It takes the 2023 budget out of the hands of the incoming republican congress, thus eliminating the majority of 'purse string' oversight and control.

While I agree with most of your points, I have to call foul on this one. We have been IN Fiscal Year 2023 since 1 October. They are THREE MONTHS LATE on this one. They are not eliminating purse string control. They are doing their final damage with three quarters left to go.

Of course, I can easily see why they didn't want to share this until after November, but the point still stands. The incoming Congress isn't really relevant to FY23 spending.

Now, if the incomers can't have a bill over to the Senate before September, THAT will be a problem.

 

[Red Leg]

One of these photo contrasts that tends to say a lot to a old soldier like myself.

Today both Zelensky and Putin held an awards ceremony. Zelensky went to Bakhmut on the front lines in Eastern Ukraine to recognize the sacrifice of the Ukrainian forces fighting there, to present awards to the most heroic, and to thank them for their bravery and service to their country. Incoming artillery fire provided interesting background sound. During the entirety of his stay he was well within the range fans of nearly every weapon system bigger than a Makarov handgun in the Russian Army.

Meanwhile, Putin was also holding an awards ceremony for some of his favorite sycophants including the director of the RT television network.

Sadly, I doubt that Tucker Carlson will report on it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zqy4cl

 

[CoElkHunter]

Mayor Adams of NYC is pleading for Federal aid in response to a planned influx of as many as 1,000 migrants week if Title 42 is lifted. NY is already struggling to house and feed the 30,000 already in city shelters. Without more money from Washington, the city might have to cut back on services to New Yorkers….according to hizzoner.

How must Oscar Lester, the mayor of El Paso, feel about this. El Paso has 1/12 the population of NYC and is facing a DAILY influx of 2,300 migrants. That’s 16 times the rate of NYC. This, thanks to the malignant ineptitude of the Biden administration.

I wouldn't give NYC or any of the other left wing "sanctuary cities" a DIME for the situation with the migrants that they were complicit with in creating this disaster. I hope the incoming Republican House votes against any taxpayer funding for this fiasco. It's ironic that the migrants haven't sought "asylum" from ALL the countries they passed through before getting to the US border. That alone, in and of itself, should preclude them legally from requesting asylum in the US. This entire nightmare rests solely on Brandon's incompetence as a leader.