Unwelcome news: Ammo Supply Unlikely to Return to Normal Anytime Soon

[gizmo]

I called the Sierra bullet company during the Obama ammo/components shortage. I spoke with their production manager and he told me they were running three shifts 24/7. I'm sure all of the manufacturers were doing the same then and are now. But, we didn't have a pandemic/riots then either. Unlike now, the supply of shotgun shells were not an issue. But, if you remember, DHS had ordered several million rounds of handgun ammo then, and the military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan ate into the civilian supply of available ammo/components. The military had ordered over a "billion" primers from Federal, thus no primers available for us. I do remember the shortages, but not the drastically inflated prices we're seeing now. I think with Biden's constant threat to the 2nd Amendment (Obama waited until he was re elected to act) through executive actions just months into his presidency, the psychological effect has led to panic buying of EVERYTHING firearm/ammo related. I don't see this ending anytime soon.

Yessir and this makes my exact point. There has been, is, and will be much more of a demand for ammunition. It’s only going to get worse also. It’s almost like they want it to fail. If 3 shifts 24-7 is t keeping up it doesn’t take much thought to realize one needs to expand to do so.

 

[Hunter4752001]

@Goose Cracker
A very enlightening article. In the near future things don't look good.
Even if people chose to reload with cast projectiles we still have the problem of primer and powder shortages. Fortunately in Australia we don't have a powder shortage yet but primers and projectiles are getting harder to obtain. Fortunately we also have a couple of bullet makers in OZ like Woodleigh, Outer Edge and Atomic 29.
Bob

Before claiming we don't have a powder shortage you might want to take a look at the messages (blaming everything except themselves) on the ADI website about suspending pistol/shotgun powders and restricted production of several rifle powders. Basically ADI has turned into a total cluster F**k.
Olin have stopped importing Winchester powders. NIOA hold the agency for Alliant but have massive distribution problems because of transport companies not wanting to handle dangerous goods.

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

You might also figure in Remington's bankruptcy and the problems that it may of thrown into the loop.

But that doesn't count against all the other companies. I attribute a lot of it to the panic buying last year when everyone was afraid that the riots were going to overtake them, so they stocked up on TP and went out and purchased firearms. Then with those firearms a few boxes of shells.

What I really don't understand is the run on reloading dies. I understand the components but not the dies themselves.

@JimP
The reloading dies are easy to understand. I can't get my ammo so I will roll my own. More handloaders equals more powder, primers and projectiles needed which compounds the problem even further.
Bob

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

Bob,
Maybe it's time to take up archery? Ha! Ha!
CEH

@CoElkHunter
Tried that shit once and had the bow string run down my forearm. Holy shit it hurt. So hence no more archery for me. You can have your string powered stick throwers.
Bob

 

[curtism1234]

I still can’t for the life of me figure out why in the hell ammo manufacturers didn’t vastly expand their facilities.

The manufacturers understand this is a self-made hoarding crisis and they, rightly, don't care. They aren't going to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars for more real estate and machinery when 2 years from now it will be sitting idol bc no one is buying new retail ammo.

 

[leslie hetrick]

being old does have a few advantages(damn few), at close to 78 i don,t have to plan to far into the future and have already put several good friends on notice that my sons will be giving them some of my reloading supplies that they can use. i have amassed close to 100 sets of dies and about 20 loading presses, rifle-shotgun-scales-trimmers-gages.

 

[Philip Glass]

That a huge issue. I understand outsourcing parts and components is in a lot of cases the most economical way to do it. That said, investing in infrastructure, for lack of a better term, seems to be a no brainer. Not to mention the extra income derived from suppling others both at home and over seas. It also gives better over all control of your product.
It would take an astronomical investment for a person or company to start a new company from the ground up and few people that actually have the fiscal means to do so are on our side. The major manufacturers however have the means and ability to do so implementing things over time. They wouldn’t have to start from scratch either unless they just wanted to either as it could be feasible to buy out current companies and expand if necessary. It would also allow them to prioritize manufacturing.
Primers then and now have always been the weakest link. WTF doesn’t one of these companies start making primers.
I’ve been very disappointed in the ammunition and components industry. They have consistently let consumers, themselves, and this country down for 12 years and counting. Any increase in demand has caused the entire industry to fall on its ass. It’s now a global problem.
In WWII we as a country went from a sub average industrial country to the worlds leading industrial juggernaut due to military needs and demand. Annnnd we did so with astonishing speed.
The civilian gun owners in the US are the largest armed population on earth even counting our own and all global militaries. You cannot tell me the need, means, and ability isnt there. Once under control, companies could restructure to meet varying demand and still not loose the ability to respond to and meet an increase in demand.
This entire situation is absolutely pathetic in today’s day and time.

I agree that this has gone on too long. I don’t understand why more ammo companies are not being formed or existing ones expand. With the excess profits that are available to them today they CAN build another plant and increase their capacity. If administrations change and demand goes down they can just shut it down. Not ideal, I know, but the excessive profits available in times like these certainly make it feasible. This isn’t going away anytime soon.

 

[gizmo]

The manufacturers understand this is a self-made hoarding crisis and they, rightly, don't care. They aren't going to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars for more real estate and machinery when 2 years from now it will be sitting idol bc no one is buying new retail ammo.

It’s not a simple function of a self made crisis for starters. Military demands have been extremely high for over 20 years now. Also the bulk of the problem has been a 12 year long ordeal. Ammo sales and demand has increased every year since 2008. Sure there has been a few moth lull here and there but look at the data, It’s out there. I have and I know they have had too. Any investment made since 2008 would have paid itself back ten fold by now.
In fairness they have expanded to an extent but it has been very small expansion comparatively speaking.

 

[curtism1234]

It’s not a simple function of a self made crisis for starters. Military demands have been extremely high for over 20 years now. Also the bulk of the problem has been a 12 year long ordeal. Ammo sales and demand has increased every year since 2008. Sure there has been a few moth lull here and there but look at the data, It’s out there. I have and I know they have had too. Any investment made since 2008 would have paid itself back ten fold by now.
In fairness they have expanded to an extent but it has been very small expansion comparatively speaking.

These large corporations employee people whose sole job is just this. I can only conclude their experts determined it was not economically possible for them or their internal forecast says this demand is short-lived. Hornady has even been on the record a number of years ago in stating they will not contribute to the hoarding madness by making more - that consumers can sort their mess on their own and maybe they won't do this again. Hornady of course is a more specialized brand than remington or winchester so it's not a direct apples to oranges. But remington is coming out of a bankruptcy sale and Winchester had to move plants bc they can not afford to pay their employees a living wage. Federal is doing well bc they are owned by Vista.

Perhaps manufacturing ammo is not as glorious as it would seem. Someone like Dallas Reloads / Wisconsin Cartridge, Grizzly / Buffalo Bore can run a decent balance sheet bc they keep their company small. I can not imagine a start up company being able to put up 10s of millions of dollars in debt to become the 4th largest ammo manufacturer. Even if they did, the ownership is likely not to ever been in the industry before. Its a recipe for disaster.

 

[gizmo]

These large corporations employee people whose sole job is just this. I can only conclude their experts determined it was not economically possible for them or their internal forecast says this demand is short-lived. Hornady has even been on the record a number of years ago in stating they will not contribute to the hoarding madness by making more - that consumers can sort their mess on their own and maybe they won't do this again. Hornady of course is a more specialized brand than remington or winchester so it's not a direct apples to oranges. But remington is coming out of a bankruptcy sale and Winchester had to move plants bc they can not afford to pay their employees a living wage. Federal is doing well bc they are owned by Vista.

Perhaps manufacturing ammo is not as glorious as it would seem. Someone like Dallas Reloads / Wisconsin Cartridge, Grizzly / Buffalo Bore can run a decent balance sheet bc they keep their company small. I can not imagine a start up company being able to put up 10s of millions of dollars in debt to become the 4th largest ammo manufacturer. Even if they did, the ownership is likely not to ever been in the industry before. Its a recipe for disaster.

I do t think you read all of what I said in all of my previous posts, none the less I understand what you are saying but their geniuses have been wrong for 12 years. Period. it’s also none of Hornady’s business what I do. Same as the government.

 

[gizmo]

I look at the American ammunition and to some extent firearms manufacturers the same way as the American auto industry. They just can’t get their shit together. They are plagued with bad decisions and mismanagement.
I believe, I could be wrong and God knows I usually am, that it went from a sleepy little industry to a huge juggernaut in a relatively short amount of time. They just simple have been drowning in a industry that has out grew them. The military has always made up the bulk of demand but now it’s starting to even out or exceed that. They just can’t cope. In all fairness I get that political climate and global events have driven demand which hasn’t been the issue on this grand of scale previously. That being said it’s held pretty damn true over the last 12 years that there is a major problem.

 

[R.M.C.]

I think some of the blame needs to be assigned to the guys who own gun shops but instead of putting the ammo they get on the shelves of their store, they auction the shit on gunbroker. com. It's not gonna get better any time soon. If people know they can get $50 per box for pretty much any center fire ammo they aren't going to stop. That's the end of my rant about shop owners on gunbroker lol

 

[JimP]

I think some of the blame needs to be assigned to the guys who own gun shops but instead of putting the ammo they get on the shelves of their store, they auction the shit on gunbroker. com. It's not gonna get better any time soon. If people know they can get $50 per box for pretty much any center fire ammo they aren't going to stop. That's the end of my rant about shop owners on gunbroker lol

I'd say that some of this can be true for the smaller mom and pop stores. But I doubt that the larger outfits would do it, not saying that they couldn't just that I doubt that they would.

Large retailers like Cabela's, Bass Pro, Sportsman's Warehouse, Midway, Natchez, and others have very little on their shelves. I think that they do have some stockpiled for the firearms that they sell but not much else. I was in a Sportsman's a couple of weeks ago and they had some 375 HH and 416 something on their shelves and they had a small stack of ammo behind the customer service window which may of been some of the more popular rounds.

 

[R.M.C.]

I'd say that some of this can be true for the smaller mom and pop stores. But I doubt that the larger outfits would do it, not saying that they couldn't just that I doubt that they would.

Large retailers like Cabela's, Bass Pro, Sportsman's Warehouse, Midway, Natchez, and others have very little on their shelves. I think that they do have some stockpiled for the firearms that they sell but not much else. I was in a Sportsman's a couple of weeks ago and they had some 375 HH and 416 something on their shelves and they had a small stack of ammo behind the customer service window which may of been some of the more popular rounds.

Yep I definitely meant the little gun shops getting a case or two at a time. None of the big guys have time to do it or they probably would lol.
In some ways I can't blame them for trying to make as much profit as they can but it sucks being on this end of it lol

 

[gizmo]

I was told that some of the local shops around the DFW area were sending out people to buy up all the ammo available at retailers such as Basspro and Cabelas. They then sell it on gunbroker at inflated prices.

 

[R.M.C.]

I was told that some of the local shops around the DFW area were sending out people to buy up all the ammo available at retailers such as Basspro and Cabelas. They then sell it on gunbroker at inflated prices.

I believe it. You can get $50 a box for anything right now.

 

[Bob Nelson 35Whelen]

being old does have a few advantages(damn few), at close to 78 i don,t have to plan to far into the future and have already put several good friends on notice that my sons will be giving them some of my reloading supplies that they can use. i have amassed close to 100 sets of dies and about 20 loading presses, rifle-shotgun-scales-trimmers-gages.

@leslie hetrick
That's the beauty of getting older mate. The older we get the less we have to worry about the expiry date of products.
We just have to live long enough to out last them.
Bob

 

[WAB]

I believe it. You can get $50 a box for anything right now.

Crazy when you can buy a decent gun with a case of 5.56!

 

[Inline6]

Up until C19, ammo was over manufactured, meaning you could buy it cheap. Alot of machines were not being used. In the defense of the ammo manufacturers, why would the invest in expansion? If in a few years it will sit idle?

Once this BS hit and you had millions of new gun ownership almost over night. Well let's put things in perspective. If you just bought your first gun or two to protect your family with. Would you care if you paid .05 or 2.00 a round? This is to protect your family, not target practice.

Any of us can start a ammo company right now. Unfortunately even if you did have all the paperwork in place how would you get components?

They, ammo manufacturers are running around the clock. It is just a big void to fill. I know Rem, Federal, and Speer are all made under the same roof I don't know which others at set up that way? I just know we have a waiting period your guess is as good as mine as to how long this will last. Just remember these companies have share holders they have to answer to. So where you may not care about the "defensive ammo" the company has to answer for that.

 

[Hunter4752001]

Risk management. If you ran an ammo company, it's a no brainer to run production at maximum capacity given current demand. All you're expending is staff costs, power and maintenance.

The issue is: do you sink tens of millions of dollars into building additional plant when a hostile Government could destroy the market overnight with the stroke of a pen. In normal times that mightn't be an issue, but with the Biden administration would you chance it?