Politics

[mdwest]

Pretty big deal.

huge deal..

not just on the economic front.. but also national security side of things..

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

huge deal..

not just on the economic front.. but also national security side of things..

Good thing for the future of Taiwan too I imagine.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I’d like to note that if the tariffs are imposed at midnight as trump says they will be that makes two international agreements he will have broken. One of which he inherited in Ukraine and one of which he negotiated himself in nafta. If he had an issue with trade in North America he should of waited until 2026 and addressed it when the agreement was to be renewed. An agreement he negotiated and signed.

 

[mutedblade]

Good thing for the future of Taiwan too I imagine.

But the USA is just gonna leave Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand to the PRC according to some on here

 

[lwaters]

Pretty big deal.

Looks to me that they want to get out of Taiwan before China takes it back.

 

[Wheels]

I have been out of pocket for a few days.

After skimming through a number of pages of this thread, this is what I have found fascinating regarding the Zelensky/Trump/Vance press conference.

Individuals with a common love of hunting. Many who I know personally and have respect for as individuals. Have such an amazingly divergent take on a 50 minute video all seen. It just shows how individualistic we all are. I am thankful to Jerome for allowing everyone's perspectives to be shared. Even if half the people are wrong.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Looks to me that they want to get out of Taiwan before China takes it back.

Always possible. Not like it’s going to happen overnight though

 

[Red Leg]

I have been out of pocket for a few days.

After skimming through a number of pages of this thread, this is what I have found fascinating regarding the Zelensky/Trump/Vance press conference.

Individuals with a common love of hunting. Many who I know personally and have respect for as individuals. Have such an amazingly divergent take on a 50 minute video all seen. It just shows how individualistic we all are. I am thankful to Jerome for allowing everyone's perspectives to be shared. Even if half the people are wrong.

Wish Zelensky could have phrased it that way. But, then again, he wasn't operating in his native language.

 

[mdwest]

I’d like to note that if the tariffs are imposed at midnight as trump says they will be that makes two international agreements he will have broken. One of which he inherited in Ukraine and one of which he negotiated himself in nafta. If he had an issue with trade in North America he should of waited until 2026 and addressed it when the agreement was to be renewed. An agreement he negotiated and signed.

Id have to go back and refresh my memory on what was agreed to in 2020 vs what is going on now to know if I agree with you on this, or not... Can you point to something specific in the new NAFTA that is being violated by the threat of tariffs? I know the original NAFTA reduced a lot of tariffs on both sides over a long period of time (I think all parties agreed to a 15 year sliding scale), but I don't recall it prohibiting new tariffs.

and I do recall NAFTA re-negotiation started in 2016 (pre-Trump) and got fully underway in 2017 after Trump came into office.. that all three parties were worlds apart.. and it took until the last moments of the Trump Administration (mid to late 2020?) before and agreement was reached, that was really more of a tiny adjustment to the original agreement than an actual overhaul..

I also recall Trump not being happy with the results, but stuck with a D controlled house and an almost evenly split senate, he really didn't have the ability to get anything more accomplished.. Many of the things Trump had insisted on simply were not included in "New NAFTA" like the sunset clause...

FWIW NAFTA, even though initially proposed by Reagan, has never been very popular among conservatives.. Bush is who actually negotiated NAFTA, but for whatever reason most people associate NAFTA with Clinton (who signed/ratified it)..

 

[Wheels]

Wish Zelensky could have phrased it that way. But, then again, he wasn't operating in his native language.

I have seen reports he used at least one word in his native language.

 

[mdwest]

I’d like to note that if the tariffs are imposed at midnight as trump says they will be that makes two international agreements he will have broken. One of which he inherited in Ukraine and one of which he negotiated himself in nafta. If he had an issue with trade in North America he should of waited until 2026 and addressed it when the agreement was to be renewed. An agreement he negotiated and signed.

Im genuinely curious about this.. so I started googling..

It doesn't appear he is violating USMCA (the "new" NAFTA).. there is a security clause in the agreement that is being cited that allows the action to take place...

That said, MX and CA could very obviously sue and argue the intent of the clause, whether or not the US can legally invoke it, etc..

But with renegotiation already supposed to happen next year, that would be a moot point/action.. we'd already be in renegotiation before the courts would have begun to really review the case..

As Tariffs Concerns Grow, Where Is the USMCA?

Dispute resolution mechanisms and a looming review in 2026 may shape the future of North American trade.

www.industryweek.com

Trump and the Future of the USMCA

President Trump has threatened new tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico. His trade plans threaten the future of the United States’ largest free trade agreement.

www.cfr.org

I'll say this... it is definitely in Mexico and Canadas best interest to get this resolved before 2026... they don't want to be going into re-negotiation of USMCA with Lutnick at the helm of Commerce and Trump pissed off about their collective lack of will to get things resolved sooner than that..

If anyone thinks the economy is going to get strange now... buckle up.. 2026 might just get Rock-n-Roll Roller Coaster wild when it comes to how the US/Canada/Mexico do business..

And as stated in an earlier post.. sure.. all of this MIGHT negatively impact the US economy (depends on which economists theories you subscribe to)... but everyone, left, right, center.. US, EU, Canadian, Mexican, etc that are "economic experts" pretty much agree, this is DEFINITELY going to suck for Canada and Mexico until it gets resolved..

 

[Red Leg]

I have seen reports he used at least one word in his native language.

Actually two - but its idiomatic.

 

[gbflyer]

you do realize the entire point of the tariffs is to force the other side into giving something up, rather than actually leaving a long term tariff in place don't you?

do you seriously believe that Canada and Mexico have the economic means to weather the storm longer or better than the US?

have you done any research or understand the trade deficit between the US and Canada or the US and Mexico? or understand the difference in how each of the three countries economies are underpinned?

Trump has been clear in telling Mexico and Canada what he wants..

Neither Mexico or Canada has complied (although they have admittedly taken some steps in the direction requested)..

Mexico in particular has tried some creative negotiating.. they're offering to match US tariffs against China in exchange for some relief on US tariffs intended for Mexico..

Left leaning economists are crying that the US economy is going to suffer, that your 401K is going to suffer, etc..etc..

While right leaning economists are saying it is highly unlikely that there will be any measurable impact on prices or investment accounts.. they point to Trump 45 and the tariffs imposed the last time around, and while they admit they were only moderately effective, they also very clearly demonstrate the stock market (and therefore investment accounts like 401K's and IRA's) performing at record highs through the entire administration..

But lets assume you're correct.. and the Paul Krugmans and Oliver Blanchards of the world have called this one right and the stock market drops for a year.. maybe even two... (I'll remind you that the market performed the worst it had since the recession of 2008 in 2021 when Biden took office, continued to under perform in 2022, continued to perform poorly for most of 2023, and only started to look reasonably healthy for the second half of 23 and all of 24.. well after COVID was a thing of the past and economists on BOTH the left and right agreed COVID had no longer been a relevant factor in stock market performance).. but again.. lets assume the Mexicans and Canadians hold out for an entire 2 years.. and the cost of maple syrup and fruits and vegetables go up a full 15%...

What exactly do you think will be happening at the same time in Mexico and Canada?

So when the Mexican government and Canadian government has no choice but to capitulate (both have admitted they don't have the ability to offset US consumption of their goods in European or Asian markets.. that they will take an economic beat down over this).. what do you think happens then to the US economy?

If you are adamant that prices are going to go up because of US tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods...

Do you not believe the opposite is true once we not only remove our tariffs on their goods, but they remove the tariffs on the goods that they have had in place for decades as well?

And do you not believe that holding the Mexicans and Canadians accountable for their role/part in the porous border is a right thing to do? That its perfectly ok that Canada for example allows goods from China that we already have tariffs on to enter Canada at a lower rate, and then come across the US border from Canada to purposefully avoid Chinese tariffs? Or that we still have high volumes of fentynal coming across from both the northern and southern border? that while the high level of crossings that have been occurring for 4 years have been slowed down greatly (no thanks to Biden obviously), that the crossings are still too high, and that the cost associated with having to do the work on our side could be greatly reduced if Canada and Mexico did their part to control the problem on their side?

If you're bitching about the POSSIBILITY of inflation tomorrow... where were you in 2022 when inflation was 8%? or 2023 when it was 4.1% (GDP growth was only 2.3% so inflation was still significantly high).. or 2024 when inflation was 2.9% (a very good number based on historical values.. but still outpaced our GDP in 2024 which was only 2.8%)...

Youve been here since 2023... show me a post since your arrival where you complained about the Biden administrations actions that impacted our economy... Ill be happy to eat some crow if you can deliver one..

Agree. We’re the tallest dwarf in the room.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Im genuinely curious about this.. so I started googling..

It doesn't appear he is violating USMCA (the "new" NAFTA).. there is a security clause in the agreement that is being cited that allows the action to take place...

That said, MX and CA could very obviously sue and argue the intent of the clause, whether or not the US can legally invoke it, etc..

But with renegotiation already supposed to happen next year, that would be a moot point/action.. we'd already be in renegotiation before the courts would have begun to really review the case..

As Tariffs Concerns Grow, Where Is the USMCA?

Dispute resolution mechanisms and a looming review in 2026 may shape the future of North American trade.

www.industryweek.com

Trump and the Future of the USMCA

President Trump has threatened new tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico. His trade plans threaten the future of the United States’ largest free trade agreement.

www.cfr.org

It depends on which version of his ever evolving
Yarn you want to buy into. When he started with his tariffs it was because of unfair trading practices. He claimed he was subsidizing canada to a completely unrealistic amount. As it has progressed he has reworded it to be a security issue.

The one that jumps to the front of mind is soft wood lumber. New Brunswick had an exception on tariffs on soft wood lumber which he is blatantly ignoring. A large amount of Maine timber is milled in Canada truckers move freely between the woodlots and mills without caring about the boarder. Company’s have invested in infrastructure and timbre leases with the incentive of being able to use designated routes and existing mills.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

In 2024, the U.S. exported $349.4 billion worth of goods to Canada, and imported $412.7 billion worth of goods from Canada.

the US buys Canadian oil at a discount and exports at full price, which currently yields a US$19 billion annual windfall.

Yet trump claims it’s over 200 billion yearly

 

[Red Leg]

If this trajectory continues, whether tariffs, realigning our foreign policy, rising prices, falling GNP, or firing constituents, at some point, those who voted for Trump but do not buy into his every utterance are going to become skeptical. Most are not going to become democrats. But a lot could start engaging their representatives, and many more could simply stay home in 26. We'll see.

 

[mdwest]

It depends on which version of his ever evolving
Yarn you want to buy into. When he started with his tariffs it was because of unfair trading practices. He claimed he was subsidizing canada to a completely unrealistic amount. As it has progressed he has reworded it to be a security issue.

The one that jumps to the front of mind is soft wood lumber. New Brunswick had an exception on tariffs on soft wood lumber which he is blatantly ignoring. A large amount of Maine timber is milled in Canada truckers move freely between the woodlots and mills without caring about the boarder. Company’s have invested in infrastructure and timbre leases with the incentive of being able to use designated routes and existing mills.

I dont doubt that things like you are describing with the lumber industry are true.. but those sort of things have always been true.. NAFTA was actually supposed to shore a lot of that sort of stuff up (in addition to reducing tariffs) and make it easier to have cross border commerce across several industries..

I think what this is all coming down to is, whether the real motivating factor is the difference or fairness in trade practices, or border security, or drugs, or anything else really doesn't matter..

Trump hasn't liked NAFTA since the last time around.. He tried pretty hard to renegotiate it the last time he was in office but didn't have support of our congress, and his last Secretary of Commerce (Ross), while arguably a brilliant man, wasn't exactly the aggressive type while in office or even very assertive on most things.. Trump wants NAFTA completely overhauled (or thrown out.. which is why he wanted a sunset clause included the last time.. he wanted the ability to walk away from it if it continued to not work in the US's interests).. and he's going to do everything he can this time around to make that happen... if he can use "security" as a legitimate claim for invoking the clause (there is no denying that criminals, drugs, etc have come across both the northern and southern border at an alarming rate for the last 4 years and that our country feels like it is in crisis now trying to get both the illegal migrants, criminals, and dope rounded up and expelled from the country), then he's going to do it..

The mid terms, if they don't go his way could impact that quite a bit.. Congress doesn't really get to "vote" on the trade agreement, but they can absolutely throw plenty of obstacles at any move the POTUS might try to make..

But right now he has the house, the senate, the judiciary, and the Whitehouse.. between now and the next 22 months he is going to be a force to be reckoned with, whether the rest of the world (and 1/2 of the American people) like it or not..

and if the mid terms do go his way... the world better be ready for it.. he literally, at that point has nothing to lose at all.. no reason to be cautious with anything.. and no reason to be conciliatory.. he will have been reaffirmed by the American people and be convinced that everything he wants and that he is doing is correct/right and supported by the citizens..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Closer to home for me , currently the U.S. buys 3.6 billion worth of Canadian sea food.

Lobster is the one I know the most about so I’ll stick with that. Chinese buyers literally sit in trucks on our wharf and try for business yet we continue to export lobsters to buyers mostly in Boston. It’s not because we don’t have the market it’s because we have generation of business history with the Boston seafood markets.

 

[mdwest]

If this trajectory continues, whether tariffs, realigning our foreign policy, rising prices, falling GNP, or firing constituents, at some point, those who voted for Trump but do not buy into his every utterance are going to become skeptical. Most are not going to become democrats. But a lot could start engaging their representatives, and many more could simply stay home in 26. We'll see.

Completely concur..

the real "threat" to Trump comes in 2026...

He's got to show evidence that his actions are working (most people will judge that on the economy.. gas prices lower, groceries lower, interest rates on housing and vehicles lower, etc).. or R's sitting in the house and senate are going to start getting very antsy by December 2025 / January 2026..

The typical American isn't going to judge "success" on whether or not Ukraine is still fighting, whether or not fentynal is still coming across the border, or whether or not the cartels are subdued..

Its going to come down to whether or not they have enough money in their bank account in July to take the kids to Disneyland..

 

[Brent in Az]

If it was Biden who snubbed Zelinskyy the other day in the Whitehouse, nobody here or abroad would be whining about it.
But it's Trump, so it's an opportunity to flex those anti-Trump muscles.