Politics

[Wishfulthinker580]

Rig count is an important metric on the health and economic outlook of the oil and natural gas industry. One of the things driving down rig activity is low natural gas prices. Lower gas prices are due to lack of LNG export capacity vs supply. The Biden administration did kill or hinder LNG expansion. With the high oil production currently in the US, a lot of associated natural gas is produced along with the oil. If there is no market for the gas, the oil production has to be curtailed. Supply, demand and price all work to regulate the market and activity.

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Rig count is an important metric on the health and economic outlook of the oil and natural gas industry. One of the things driving down rig activity is low natural gas prices. Lower gas prices are due to lack of LNG export capacity vs supply. The Biden administration did kill or hinder LNG expansion. With the high oil production currently in the US, a lot of associated natural gas is produced along with the oil. If there is no market for the gas, the oil production has to be curtailed. Supply, demand and price all work to regulate the market and activity.

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So it’s self inflicted

 

[deewayne2003]

My point was if a 30K Dow was a sign of great accomplishment and great economy for Trump (his words), then a 41.6K Dow is the same for Biden.

Fed is lowering the rates due to positive economic indicators.

I think the fed lowering interest rates has more to do with the election than anything.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I'm not arguing against more oil production. But let's say in a debate, a real one that is, Trump cannot state we're producing less oil under Biden than when he was POTUS. The numbers just don't bear this out. Could we be producing even more? Possibly, but most folks are going to be lost in this argument as soon as the production numbers show we're producing more and a higher rate than ever before.

The goal is to win the WH, not the argument.

I see what you’re saying. He can say that the increase in production is due to his energy policies and from wells permitted, completed or drilled during his presidency. That’s a lot of good paying jobs missing as well. A lot of support industries hurting too. The argument can always be made that the current administration is completely incompetent and inept and he can always point out how well just about everything was under his administration pre-Covid. It’s similar to the stock market approaching record highs earlier. I don’t think the average American is seeing much good out of it. Yea my 401k is up but so is cost of living.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

So it’s self inflicted

I know you weren't replying to me, but yes is the answer to your question. It's not much different than farming. I come from a farming family on my father's side. I have listened to challenges, dare I say woes of those that still farm in Iowa and specifically the price of corn. Farmers are always trying to figure out how to produce more corn. After all, you make more money by having more product to sell from the same amount of property you can farm. But every farmer is trying to do this and as a result more corn is produced and thus the supply increases. If demand does not increase by the same amount, prices are going to go down. It's a dog chasing it's tail game.

My family does best when there's a lot of crop damage in other parts of the corn producing states but not on their farm and especially if they have a bumper crop. Prices go up due to the crop damage and overall lower supply, which opens the door for my family's increased output.

 

[Red Leg]

We just have differing view points. We are at a point where nothing I am going to say will resonate with you, and the same with I. You just look at things differently. I see your viewpoint on the Kremlin. I don't like Putin. I just take myself more as a realist. There is no "idealistic" ending to this. You can't reason with a madman who will sacrifice every last Russian man, and then some. Not to mention, the nuclear button. I am also realistic in the sense that he's not launching a nuke anywhere but Ukraine. Our intercontinental ballistic missile defense is beyond what your wildest imaginations can think up. Furthermore, to launch at a NATO block country is suicide.

Like you, I have a bit of inner experience in terms of how these things go. Especially proxy wars. Yemen, for example, which I can only speak that I do have first hand knowledge on. Not much more, unfortunately. When a proxy war is fought, the end goal for the "common good" outweighs the realistic picture on the ground. The ideal itself takes precedence over the actual human cost on those fighting it.

No one in the Pentagon believes Ukraine can "win" this war. Anyone who does is out of their mind. This isn't a Syrian conflict where surgical "advisors" are installed and direct action missions have an impact. There are advisors in country now, I know for a fact, but it's not the same. The "win" for this is really, stop Putin from taking the entire country. Crimea, the NW corner, etc will all likely go to Putin.

There's no sense arguing on this anymore because we just have differing viewpoints.

We obviously won't agree because you base your "realism" on what you believe and I base my analysis on what I know and can prove, leavened with a great deal of real world experience. Though I am sure you have led an interesting professional life, I have been professionally in every Middle East nation except Syria and Iran extensively (yes, including Yemen). I also speak Arabic with additional specialized training in the Arab peninsula dialect. I also suspect my range of contacts in my former profession are about as extensive as anyone. So let's you and I not employ the international men of mystery argument.

With respect to your sources in the Pentagon, I belong to fairly small fraternity of the graduates of that edifice. I can assure you the only thing frustrating the vast majority of the uniformed Pentagon leadership is the spinelessness of the Biden administration effort led by Jake Sullivan. We could have done so much more by now, and could still dramatically shift the correlation of forces in Ukraine in a matter of weeks and without introducing a single NATO advisor.

As an appointed officer, I subsequently ran a pretty substantial piece of a major defense corporation. I was part of the sector that builds the "missile defense beyond what your wildest imaginations can think up." Regrettably, virtually all of that capability is readily available in the open press.

I think your description of Putin is largely correct except he is not mad. What he has done is make an enormous strategic miscalculation. But by your logic, we should allow him to recover from that and achieve his every strategic objective. To me that is true madness.

He will indeed sacrifice a lot of his military age population, but he doesn't dare call for general mobilization. By keeping the old Duchy of Moscow out of this war, he has made the contest far more equal in manpower. Yes, he will rattle his nuclear saber as he has for two and a half years, but he also realizes any strike against NATO would result in the utter and complete destruction of the Russian state, its culture, and its population. No one really knows how much of the Russian nuclear arsenal is viable after thirty years of neglect, but he can be certain every US weapon will work exactly as intended.

I am fairly confident we have provided him with an equally clear message should he utilize a tactical weapon in Ukraine.

On the other hand, I think we likely agree on the possible end state of this conflict. Unfortunately Putin is still far from that compromise, and will not budge until he knows the outcome of the election. There is very clear evidence that he believes Trump will force Ukraine into a settlement that grants Russia most of its strategic objectives. Whether Trump would do that is still open to question, but the evidence produced by his surrogates, including his VP pick, is giving Putin a great deal of hope.

 

[mdwest]

I know you weren't replying to me, but yes is the answer to your question. It's not much different than farming. I come from a farming family on my father's side. I have listened to challenges, dare I say woes of those that still farm in Iowa and specifically the price of corn. Farmers are always trying to figure out how to produce more corn. After all, you make more money by having more product to sell from the same amount of property you can farm. But every farmer is trying to do this and as a result more corn is produced and thus the supply increases. If demand does not increase by the same amount, prices are going to go down. It's a dog chasing it's tail game.

My family does best when there's a lot of crop damage in other parts of the corn producing states but not on their farm and especially if they have a bumper crop. Prices go up due to the crop damage and overall lower supply, which opens the door for my family's increased output.

Ive got a buddy that is a cattle farmer in Virginia... who is actually a fairly astute businessman as well.. he was the COO of a fairly good sized business for several years.. and has a very solid understanding how things "work" beyond just making "bigger" cows or more cows in order to make more money..

He says the same thing about beef... its a dog chasing its tail... God help it if it ever actually catches the tail in its teeth.. its going to hurt..

 

[WAB]

I wasn’t saying we’re producing less, I was pointing out the fact that we could be producing more. Not to mention all the jobs that are associated with said decline. It’s obviously in spite of Biden. High rig counts are a good thing. A booming energy sector is good for everyone. Please elaborate on your opinion of arguing for more oil production being a losing strategy. Because of environmental/global warming concerns?

Rig counts are a leading indicator. They tell you nothing about oil production today. They do give you insight into oil production three years from now.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

Ive got a buddy that is a cattle farmer in Virginia... who is actually a fairly astute businessman as well.. he was the COO of a fairly good sized business for several years.. and has a very solid understanding how things "work" beyond just making "bigger" cows or more cows in order to make more money..

He says the same thing about beef... its a dog chasing its tail... God help it if it ever actually catches the tail in its teeth.. its going to hurt..

I used to love to visit Iowa, particularly in late spring / early summer before the corn was particularly tall. The rolling countryside of western Iowa where my dad was from takes on a beauty that lasts for a brief period. With the corn growing, but not yet so tall as to prevent you from seeing across the farms, the green of it all along with the old white victorian style farm houses and the maintained barns and the adjacent livestock corral , well it was just special to me at least.

But now the barns are either in a dilapidated condition or are just simply gone as well as the corrals. The profit margins for livestock are so razor thin, there's just too much risk for too little profit for the small individual farmer. As such most of the farmers like my cousin have stopped raising livestock. Livestock is now the business of much larger corporate farms who rely on volume to overcome low profit margins to make money.

The barn my grandfather built and I would have such a grand time playing in when I was visiting as a kid is gone. It was no longer being used and the original wood it was built with was rotted from weather and termites. My cousin who served as a volunteer in the local fire department offered it to the department to use for training. So one winter day with snow on the ground they set it on fire and the local firefighters controlled it to ensure the house and machinery shed were not damaged. Crops grow on that piece of land now.

 

[Red Leg]

Well this is something different in the war on terror - or maybe cell phone overuse.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836038437264368078

I have to believe they somehow intercepted a shipment of burn phones or pagers intended for Hezbollah and rigged them with explosives. As soon as Unit 8200 picked them up in use, an execute signal went out. Pretty clever however they did it. No, I do not believe you can simply send out a signal to cause the battery in a specific iPhone to explode.

 

[Wheels]

Israeli military and intelligence never cease to amaze me. Entebbe, Stuxnet, Haniyeh, etc. and now exploding up to 2,000 Hamas pagers at the same moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836061232433930309

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836062479069098286

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836069676373196808

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

Well this is something different in the war on terror - or maybe cell phone overuse.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836038437264368078

I have to believe they somehow intercepted a shipment of burn phones intended for Hezbollah and rigged them with explosives. As soon as Unit 8200 picked them up in use, an execute signal went out. Pretty clever however they did it. No, I do not believe you can simply send out a signal to cause the battery in a specific iPhone to explode.

The only way I could see how without an explosive added to the phone would be to add a switch that when close would short across the battery terminals and cause a large current spike that MAY cause the battery to explode. But I really would think that this would only raise the temperature of the battery and not explode. At least if I was on the design team a short of the battery like that would be an identified risk that would need to be investigated to ensure an explosion like that would not happen in that scenario.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

Israeli military and intelligence never cease to amaze me. Entebbe, Stuxnet, Haniyeh, etc. and now exploding up to 2,000 Hamas pagers at the same moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836061232433930309

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836062479069098286

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836069676373196808

This is 007 stuff to be certain.

 

[Tanks]

...

I'm not the best with money, they way you explain it seems a little different than I understand it. 100.00 in 2017 can only buy 89.45 in 2021. 100 in 2021 can only buy 83.83 in 2024. I'm not an economics major, I could have something wrong.

The reason I explained things the way I did was to tie in the Dow. Let me rephrase so maybe it will make sense.
In order to buy the goods you bought for $100 in 2017, you'd need $110.55 in 2022(end of Trump's term)
In order to buy the goods you bought for $100 in 2021 (start of Biden's term) you'd need $116.17 in 2024.

However, $100 invested in Dow in 2021 (start of Biden's term) gave you $138.70 today. So, in reality one is ahead by $22.53 ($138.70 - $116.17) for the duration of Biden's Presidency.

Also, inflation today is 2.5% for the 12 months prior average. It was 2.1% in 2020.

As @Red Leg mentioned earlier, economy is no longer an issue in this election if people look at the facts and the whole picture.

Could it have been better if Trump had won in 2020? Who knows, it is easy to make suppositions in hindsight. We still would have had Covid shutdowns in various States as it was not solely a Federal decision.

 

[mdwest]

Well this is something different in the war on terror - or maybe cell phone overuse.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836038437264368078

I have to believe they somehow intercepted a shipment of burn phones or pagers intended for Hezbollah and rigged them with explosives. As soon as Unit 8200 picked them up in use, an execute signal went out. Pretty clever however they did it. No, I do not believe you can simply send out a signal to cause the battery in a specific iPhone to explode.

Not to be crass... but Im just hopeful that Hezbollah has an SOP that mandates that pagers are all sorted in the right front pocket of pants, tucked in as closely to your junk as possible...

The world would be a far better place if terrorists were all incapable of procreation...

 

[Dirtdart]

This is 007 stuff to be certain.

This reminds me of the MACV-SOG Project Eldest Son.

 

[Dirtdart]

Not to be crass... but Im just hopeful that Hezbollah has an SOP that mandates that pagers are all sorted in the right front pocket of pants, tucked in as closely to your junk as possible...

The world would be a far better place if terrorists were all incapable of procreation...

Not only that but what a great way to get a positive ID on an a previously unidentified affiliate.

 

[Wheels]

Evidently there is a side benefit regarding those that were only wounded in the attack. They are now branded.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836080846438309902

 

[Tanks]

... As such most of the farmers like my cousin have stopped raising livestock. Livestock is now the business of much larger corporate farms who rely on volume to overcome low profit margins to make money.
...

Boutique farmers are still making money. I paid $80/pound for Wagyu A5 ribeyes at my local butcher a couple of weeks ago for a dinner party I had at home. Interestingly online direct from the farms it is even more.

As an aside, I heartily recommend the Meater Pro temperature probe for BBQs etc.. with their app it is a no brainer to fix a perfect steak (or chicken, fish etc.). Ambient temperature limit is 1,000F so it will not be damaged.

Meater - The Best Selling Smart Meat Thermometer

Remove the guesswork from cooking with MEATER, the smartest cooking thermometer for your BBQ and Kitchen.

www.meater.com

 

[Inline6]

The reason I explained things the way I did was to tie in the Dow. Let me rephrase so maybe it will make sense.
In order to buy the goods you bought for $100 in 2017, you'd need $110.55 in 2022(end of Trump's term)
In order to buy the goods you bought for $100 in 2021 (start of Biden's term) you'd need $116.17 in 2024.

However, $100 invested in Dow in 2021 (start of Biden's term) gave you $138.70 today. So, in reality one is ahead by $22.53 ($138.70 - $116.17) for the duration of Biden's Presidency.

Also, inflation today is 2.5% for the 12 months prior average. It was 2.1% in 2020.

As @Red Leg mentioned earlier, economy is no longer an issue in this election if people look at the facts and the whole picture.

Could it have been better if Trump had won in 2020? Who knows, it is easy to make suppositions in hindsight. We still would have had Covid shutdowns in various States as it was not solely a Federal decision.

We are tracking on the dollars. Buying power decrease.

As far as the economy being a non issue. I don't think that's the case for middle and lower class. I'll agree that the numbers you are quoting today are good, how much will they be revised after the election? Both sides do it, they are going to show the best numbers possible.

You have said many times it cyclic, 100% agree. It applies to politics as much as the market. The pendulum is always swinging.

 

[WAB]

Well this is something different in the war on terror - or maybe cell phone overuse.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836038437264368078

I have to believe they somehow intercepted a shipment of burn phones or pagers intended for Hezbollah and rigged them with explosives. As soon as Unit 8200 picked them up in use, an execute signal went out. Pretty clever however they did it. No, I do not believe you can simply send out a signal to cause the battery in a specific iPhone to explode.

This is amazing, you’ve got to love Israeli ingenuity. You’ve also got to question the intelligence of the Islamic extremists. It doesn’t seem to matter how many times they get their collective asses handed to them on a platter, they just have to go poke the bear one more time.