Politics

[Tanks]

We are tracking on the dollars. Buying power decrease.

As far as the economy being a non issue. I don't think that's the case for middle and lower class. ...

How do you think Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all imports and 60% tariff on Chinese goods would impact the middle and lower economic classes. That is basically a tremendous tax on those people and more. Also, does this mean your $1,000 iPhones or Dell computers etc., are now $1,600+? We import $504.6B (2021 number) from China per year for a lot of which there are no alternative sources. If there are then those would be subject to 10% tariff, which is still a cost to the end consumer. Also
don't forget a 10% increase in cost at port of entry could be double by the time it gets to the end customer.

That is assuming there is no retaliation. We export a lot of farm goods to China, a 60% tariff at the other end would mean they'd be buying pork and other farm products from other countries.

 

[Hunt anything]

On the down side, how long until TSA says we can’t take cell phones on an airplane?

 

[HookMeUpII]

Israeli military and intelligence never cease to amaze me. Entebbe, Stuxnet, Haniyeh, etc. and now exploding up to 2,000 Hamas pagers at the same moment.

They haven't confirmed Israel yet but one could easily surmise, it was them. They have gone well beyond the creativity I'd ever have expected. The logistics of carrying this out are mind blowing.

Might be the most scandalous, impressive, and impactful supply chain breach attack on record.

 

[Hunt anything]

Boutique farmers are still making money. I paid $80/pound for Wagyu A5 ribeyes at my local butcher a couple of weeks ago for a dinner party I had at home. Interestingly online direct from the farms it is even more.

As an aside, I heartily recommend the Meater Pro temperature probe for BBQs etc.. with their app it is a no brainer to fix a perfect steak (or chicken, fish etc.). Ambient temperature limit is 1,000F so it will not be damaged.

Meater - The Best Selling Smart Meat Thermometer

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@Tanks , first off I value your input on all subjects but for us middle class farmers we can’t even fathom running out and paying $80 a pound for any kind of beef. If they weigh a pound each that would equal many peoples grocery bill for a week if not a month.

 

[Tanks]

@Tanks , first off I value your input on all subjects but for us middle class farmers we can’t even fathom running out and paying $80 a pound for any kind of beef. If they weigh a pound each that would equal many peoples grocery bill for a week if not a month.

My point was not for the farmers to go out and buy $80 a pound beef, but how some have switched to raising American Wagyu beef that sells pretty well.

 

[Hunt anything]

My point was not for the farmers to go out and buy $80 a pound beef, but how some have switched to raising American Wagyu beef that sells pretty well.

Nothing to do with politics; but have you tried Wagyu brisket? My butcher shop had it for $70# last week and man did it look good!

 

[shootist~]

How do you think Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all imports and 60% tariff on Chinese goods would impact the middle and lower economic classes. That is basically a tremendous tax on those people and more. Also, does this mean your $1,000 iPhones or Dell computers etc., are now $1,600+? We import $504.6B (2021 number) from China per year for a lot of which there are no alternative sources. If there are then those would be subject to 10% tariff, which is still a cost to the end consumer. Also
don't forget a 10% increase in cost at port of entry could be double by the time it gets to the end customer.

That is assuming there is no retaliation. We export a lot of farm goods to China, a 60% tariff at the other end would mean they'd be buying pork and other farm products from other countries.

Doesn't Apple still book most of the profits (and tax liability) on iPhones, etc., overseas? IIRC they do this by shipping to the US at much higher than actual cost. Thereby lowering profits - and income tax - booked in the US.

I was in favor of the Fair Tax because if this since take away some of the advantage allowed by loop holes our tax system. The 10% tariff would seem to do the same thing.

 

[BSO Dave]

Damn that Biden/Harris economy...

Dow flirts with record amid revived hopes for jumbo Fed cut

Wall Street finished a winning week as bets of a 50-basis point rate cut jumped.

nypost.com

Dow closes at all-time high as stocks jump ahead of crucial Fed rate decision

Markets have been in a bull run since the start of this year on expectations the Fed would kick off its monetary policy easing cycle soon.

nypost.com

Before y'all say that means nothing, what's good for goose is good for gander...

Having read your last several posts in regard to the economy and particularly the stock market, I am still not sure if you are gaslighting, trolling, or truly that oblivious to the real economy that the majority of Americans are still enduring... Perhaps all 3...?

Of course, Trump is going to tout a strong performing market, just like every POTUS before him that enjoyed a prosperous gain during their tenure... I don't blame Brandon for trying to do the same, although the gains during Trump's term where beneficial to a much broader market due mainly to successful policies like the tax cuts and massive deregulation. Whereas the last 3.6 years have been an enigma for many economists considering the many unfavorable indicators that exist which are all a direct result of Biden's failed policies. The takeaway here is that thankfully, the market is still strong in spite of Biden's failed economic policies... Tech and pharmaceutical stocks are still carrying the market which, for now, seem impervious to the green new deal bullshit...

Unfortunately, 40% of the American workforce, which make up the poorest Americans, do not directly benefit from the success of the market. They are still consumed with trying to pay their bills which include rent, mortgage, gas, electricity, groceries, insurance, and about a half dozen other necessities that are not accurately reflected in the posted inflation rate. On average, these costs in this particular group are 22% higher than they were in 2020 when Brandon took office...

Furthermore, this Administration's gaslighting claim that slowing inflation is some sort of victory and success is an insult to the intelligence of every working middle class American... Slowing, or even stable inflation still does not undo the damage from the last 3.6 years of fiscal misery... Nobody is getting that money back, and prices are still not coming down to what they were pre-Brandon. Their proud claim of rising wages are out-pacing inflation was another infuriating insult in an attempt of this Administration to gaslight the American public. To suggest that record setting high inflation is actually good news because wages are keeping pace with said inflation is complete and utter bullshit...

Your asinine assertion that the economy is no longer an issue if you look at the facts is absolutely laugh-out-loud hilarious to me, but it's insulting to more than half this country that doesn't enjoy your personal economic security which obviously facilitates that Marie Antoinette arrogance you like to display so often... If you are going to post numbers, post them all... Do you really believe that you can make ridiculous assertions based on cherry-picked partial data posted out of context, and nobody here would call you on it??

 

[Tanks]

Doesn't Apple still book most of the profits (and tax liability) on iPhones, etc., overseas? IIRC they do this by shipping to the US at much higher than actual cost. Thereby lowering profits - and income tax - booked in the US.
...

No, idea. But is they are doing this, then the tariffs will have even more impact.

Nothing to do with politics; but have you tried Wagyu brisket? My butcher shop had it for $70# last week and man did it look good!

I have seen it. Guess, I will have to try it.

 

[deewayne2003]

My point was not for the farmers to go out and buy $80 a pound beef, but how some have switched to raising American Wagyu beef that sells pretty well.

Boutique and farm to table is the way to go for profit, otherwise it's an economy of scale issue.

Also the corporate farms/ranches can run the operation at a net 0 because big Ag accountants know how to milk every subsidy, tax break and incentive program; so it's tax beneficial to let the farm operate at a loss and the processing facilities which are owned by the same corporation make all the profit.

The different brands on your supermarket shelf are just the illusion of free market, and if you don't believe me then consider.....

When it comes to agriculture, generally courts have stated that if the top four producers in the market control 50% or more of the market than it's considered a monopoly.

Tyson, Cargill, National Beef & JBS control 85% of the USA beef market.

Tyson is especially brutal with their business practices for everything from their pricing penalties when they purchase from independent producers to the labor practices in their processing facilities.

Example: Perry Iowa: population 8,000 - Tyson decided to lay off 1,200 workers in Perry so they could then higher "migrants" which they will be offering free legal aid to. The legal aid will help them stay in the country and apply for social benefits - Tyson pays low wages, and government welfare will supplement those low wages with housing allowances and food stamps.

Tyson will be building housing in Perry so they can then turn around and rent that housing to their employees - thus collecting the section 8 housing payments from their migrant workforce that are provided by tax dollars.

They learned this from Wal-Mart, where every stores breakroom has the literature on how to apply for social benefits. This policy was enacted while Hillary Clinton sat on the board of directors for Wal-Mart - While her husband was the governor of Arkansas where Wal-Mart was founded; and she didn't resign from the board until her husband was elected president..... because that would have been a conflict of interest.

We are literally going back to the coal mining days where you rented your house from the company and got paid in scrip that could only be used to buy things at the company store.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

Nothing to do with politics; but have you tried Wagyu brisket? My butcher shop had it for $70# last week and man did it look good!

So a full packer brisket at about 18lbs is ……….carry the one …… add a 0….$1260!!!

You buy the meat and I’ll smoke it up for ya…

 

[Tanks]

. To suggest that record setting high inflation is actually good news because wages are keeping pace with said inflation is complete and utter bullshit...

If costs go up by 10% but revenue goes up by 20% for example that means that entity/person is ahead. Now, I am not saying high inflation is good but there are many ways to mitigate it whether it is real estate, equities or even gold. You just don't want to leave liquid assets in the bank doing nothing.

 

[Wheels]

They haven't confirmed Israel yet but one could easily surmise, it was them. They have gone well beyond the creativity I'd ever have expected. The logistics of carrying this out are mind blowing.

Might be the most scandalous, impressive, and impactful supply chain breach attack on record.

It makes you wonder if the hit on Haniyeh was cyber connected causing Hezbollah to change out to a new batch of pagers where Israel had compromised the supply chain. You don't want the pagers to be in circulation for an extended period or a repairman might figure it out.

 

[deewayne2003]

Nothing to do with politics; but have you tried Wagyu brisket? My butcher shop had it for $70# last week and man did it look good!

Yes it's amazing.... smoke it 20% less than normal brisket because of the fat content.

My buddy has a mail order Wagyu business and last I checked he could deliver a 12-14lbs brisket for $200ish - Not sure about posting his website here, but if your interested PM me.

And yes this is 100% full blood Wagyu

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Not only that but what a great way to get a positive ID on an a previously unidentified affiliate.

 

[BSO Dave]

If costs go up by 10% but revenue goes up by 20% for example that means that entity/person is ahead.

LOL... Are you seriously trying to make this as a logical argument???

Here's the first of many problems with that as it relates to Brandonomics: Wage growth as they claimed over his term did not, has not, and will not outpace his inflation over his entire term. Wage growth may have outpaced inflation in a handful of recent months but overall, Brandon's wage to inflation ratio is way under water over his term... I'll use your own argument of gain/loss to show you just how bad the loss was for Americans was under Brandon compared to Trump...

Here are the REAL numbers, not cherry picked, not partial data...

Under Trump year over year inflation was 1.9%. That's 7.6% overall during his term while wages grew 15% ...

Under Brandon, year over year was 5.2%, and 20.8% overall at the 3.6-year mark and even higher when you factor in the essential costs of living as mentioned before like rent, mortgages, groceries, fuel, insurance, and electricity which collectively consumes 75-95% of every middle-class household income. That rate was was 22.5% on average... Wages under Brandon have grown by 7% over his term to date...

So, by your formula, the wage growth outpaced inflation by 100% under Trump, while conversely, inflation has outpaced wage growth by 200% to date under Brandon... The reality is that Trump's economy outperformed Brandon's most of the Top 10 growth indicators used by investors which are GDP, industrial production, consumer spending, employment figures, home sales, new construction, INFLATION, construction spending, manufacturing demand & retail sales...

Brandon had a slight edge over Trump in job growth which has two asterisks by it due to the Covid job bump which we all know were not really new jobs, but returning jobs already created under Trump... The second asterisk is for the fabricated numbers put out during this most recent jobs report which we discovered was BS...

In summary, nobody is ahead because revenue has not exceeded costs as you mistakenly suggest in specific regard to wage growth compared to inflation...

 

[Brent in Az]

Im confused? Did the Israelis put some type of micro explosive device inside the pagers before Hamas gor ahold of them?

 

[BSO Dave]

Now, I am not saying high inflation is good but there are many ways to mitigate it whether it is real estate, equities or even gold. You just don't want to leave liquid assets in the bank doing nothing.

My friend, you are so out of touch with average American, I can't even begin to list all the reasons, but statements like this above sum it up pretty good...

Even Americans with good jobs in multiple income houses are living paycheck to paycheck over the last 3.6 years... 3 in 4 Americans have no assets to speak of... Real consumer debt is at an all-time high in this country, and you are talking about mitigating inflation with real estate, equities, gold??? LOL...
You are either trolling me or you are really that oblivious to the real America?

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Rig counts are a leading indicator. They tell you nothing about oil production today. They do give you insight into oil production three years from now.

I worked for 6 years in Nigeria on a deepwater project. We had one, deepwater drillship running fulltime and a second drillship for a couple of years. Rig rates were in the $500k per day range, but when you add in helicopters, supply boats, security boats, etc, the total spread cost for each rig was right around $1 million per day. Time is money, especially in the deepwater arena. BTW, the rig company we used, went out of business and Noble bought them. The boom-bust cycle is never ending!


Deepwater oil rigs may fetch $600,000 a day as offshore drilling demand expands, Noble CEO predicts
David Wethe, Bloomberg September 16, 2024

(Bloomberg) – The price to rent a deepwater drilling rig may climb to near record levels if demand from oil companies continues to increase in the coming years, according to the head of the world’s biggest offshore rig contractor.

Robert Eifler, chief executive officer at Noble Corp., said Friday in an interview that he’s planning for relatively flat demand growth industry wide for floating drilling rigs next year followed by expansion starting in 2026 that could add about 10 rigs to the roughly 150 working around the world. If it happens, from that point forward, “it’s possible” rates could climb to $600,000 a day, he said. “We think dayrates will trend upwards,” Eifler said. “We’re signing one- to three-year contracts right now at around $500,000 a day.”

Global deepwater spending by oil producers is forecast to grow to an average of $79 billion in 2026 and 2027, according to Noble, citing research from Rystad. That would be a 20% hike from the average annual amount between 2023 and 2025.

It’s a marked turnaround from the dark days offshore drillers endured as the rise of shale made many deepwater projects obsolete, and then back-to-back oil busts crushed demand and cash flow.

Today, Eifler sees an offshore drilling environment marked by balance and discipline in which operators can get a rig if they want one. In previous boom times, particularly between 2010 and 2014, explorers raced to contract rigs for fear the supply of offshore vessels would run out.

“It would be another few years and a continuously improving market that would actually drive true supply scarcity in our business,” Eifler said. “I don’t think we’re on the brink of that right now.”

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I worked for 6 years in Nigeria on a deepwater project. We had one, deepwater drillship running fulltime and a second drillship for a couple of years. Rig rates were in the $500k per day range, but when you add in helicopters, supply boats, security boats, etc, the total spread cost for each rig was right around $1 million per day. Time is money, especially in the deepwater arena. BTW, the rig company we used, went out of business and Noble bought them. The boom-bust cycle is never ending!


Deepwater oil rigs may fetch $600,000 a day as offshore drilling demand expands, Noble CEO predicts
David Wethe, Bloomberg September 16, 2024

(Bloomberg) – The price to rent a deepwater drilling rig may climb to near record levels if demand from oil companies continues to increase in the coming years, according to the head of the world’s biggest offshore rig contractor.

Robert Eifler, chief executive officer at Noble Corp., said Friday in an interview that he’s planning for relatively flat demand growth industry wide for floating drilling rigs next year followed by expansion starting in 2026 that could add about 10 rigs to the roughly 150 working around the world. If it happens, from that point forward, “it’s possible” rates could climb to $600,000 a day, he said. “We think dayrates will trend upwards,” Eifler said. “We’re signing one- to three-year contracts right now at around $500,000 a day.”

Global deepwater spending by oil producers is forecast to grow to an average of $79 billion in 2026 and 2027, according to Noble, citing research from Rystad. That would be a 20% hike from the average annual amount between 2023 and 2025.

It’s a marked turnaround from the dark days offshore drillers endured as the rise of shale made many deepwater projects obsolete, and then back-to-back oil busts crushed demand and cash flow.

Today, Eifler sees an offshore drilling environment marked by balance and discipline in which operators can get a rig if they want one. In previous boom times, particularly between 2010 and 2014, explorers raced to contract rigs for fear the supply of offshore vessels would run out.

“It would be another few years and a continuously improving market that would actually drive true supply scarcity in our business,” Eifler said. “I don’t think we’re on the brink of that right now.”

I didn’t realize Noble still had that much going on. Never really looked into it. I see now how well their research foundation is funded