Politics

[LivingTheDream]

If Sotomayor was going to retire, the time to do that was 3-4 months ago... to give plenty of time to work through the desired replacement candidates, and to make as much political hay as possible during the election cycle...

What the D's dont want (I would think) right now is the shit show that would ensue with the pressing of a far left candidate this close to the election... that would make for easy targeting by the right... and every website on the web would be full of "the court is going to let little boys pee in little girls bathrooms!" and "your guns are gone!" type articles and discussions..

And I think what the D's want even less is a very moderate and centrist liberal justice on the court.. thats not going to satisfy their base at this point..

So.. strategically, the best move is to let Sotomayor sit.. pray that the D's retain the whitehouse.. and then let her retire in early 2025..

If Trump retakes the whitehouse.. I can see Sotomayor trying to hang on for another 4 years.. in hopes that the next D will retake the oval office in 2028 and she can retire shortly thereafter..

My belief/opinion is that Biden is going to be the nominee, if you asked me Friday morning I would have said Harris/or other. But with the assassination attempt, this election is pretty much over. Biden will be the sacrificial lamb, no democrat is going to step up in this environment, get painted with circumventing democracy for at best a 50/50 shot. The photo with Trump with his fist in the air and the American flag is the most iconic image in politics since Obama's Hope poster.

 

[Saul]

My belief/opinion is that Biden is going to be the nominee, if you asked me Friday morning I would have said Harris/or other. But with the assassination attempt, this election is pretty much over. Biden will be the sacrificial lamb, no democrat is going to step up in this environment, get painted with circumventing democracy for at best a 50/50 shot. The photo with Trump with his fist in the air and the American flag is the most iconoc image in politics since Obama's Hope poster.

Unfortunately I agree.

 

[Saul]

It’s a 93 page opinion, not exactly an arm wave of “I don’t need this”.

You would be amazed what clerks can do.

 

[Red Leg]

I think Vance is ok.. but.. I hope he is not Trumps pick...

Trump won Ohio by 8 points the last time around.. and he is poised to win Ohio pretty easily this time around as well.. he doesnt need Vance to help pull in Ohio or other states in the general area..

And while Vance was in years past pretty vocally opposed to Trump on several issues.. in recent history he has shown himself to be a fairly avowed loyalist.. which wont help bring in the centrists and independents that Trump needs to win in November..

Rubio MIGHT help a little bit to bring in more minorities.. but I dont think he'll help much.. and Trump wont need any help pulling in Florida.. so I dont know that Rubio brings much value either.. while I dont think he'd be a bad VP.. Trump has to win the office first.. or who is good or bad really doesnt make any difference at all..

I like Bergum too.. but I think he is simply too unknown to the American people.. and would just be another older white guy on the ticket... he doesnt do anything to advance Trumps chances of a win..


I actually like the above three individually better than a Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard, etc. type choice.. but.. I think Haley or Gabbard bring more to the table that help to ensure a win... They would validate to some degree that Trump can see past former arguments/conflicts and get past grudges, etc in order to make positive decisions.. they would bring in more women voters that for whatever reason believe we MUST have a woman in the white house (as opposed to simply wanting the most qualified person available).. etc..etc..

and while I dont think Trump has a chance in hell of winning Hawaii.. Gabbard at least gives him a chance..

Purely politically, and ignoring the yammering of Tucker Carlson and ilk, he would get the biggest political lift from Haley or Youngkin. It would settle down that 25% wedge of the party that has real questions about Trump's leadership. But, I suspect it will be Vance.

 

[Saul]

I am intrigued by Vance as a politician, but I also do not think he will bring much in the way of an election boost to Trump.

 

[mdwest]

Purely politically, and ignoring the yammering of Tucker Carlson and ilk, he would get the biggest political lift from Haley or Youngkin. It would settle down that 25% wedge of the party that has real questions about Trump's leadership. But, I suspect it will be Vance.

I would definitely be happy with a Youngkin pick.. but would be perfectly fine with Haley as well..

I think either have the savvy, experience, and skill sets needed to serve well in the office.. and both bring enough to the table to actually help Trump get elected in the first place..

I also think either of them are electable in 2028.. which could help ensure an R in the whitehouse for several years to come.. (Youngkin maybe more than Haley.. but either could potentially pull it off depending on how well they did as VP)..

 

[LivingTheDream]

Purely politically, and ignoring the yammering of Tucker Carlson and ilk, he would get the biggest political lift from Haley or Youngkin. It would settle down that 25% wedge of the party that has real questions about Trump's leadership. But, I suspect it will be Vance.

I was really hoping for Youngkin. But being from Virginia I am a bit biased.

 

[mdwest]

I was really hoping for Youngkin. But being from Virginia I am a bit biased.

Im not from VA.. but lived there for a while.. and still do a considerable amount of business in Virginia...

Youngkin has been very good for the state... and I think he could be very good for the country..

 

[TOBY458]

Is it just me or do others notice:

Okay, maybe firecrackers to several witnesses.. at first. But then it's "Oh Shit" gunfire/gunshots. And only a (very) few folks in the bleachers behind and what can be seen of the first 3 rows of seats in front of the podium in front of Trump trying to take cover.

Why aren't spectators piling up on top of each other trying to get down, diving for cover?

Especially when LEOs are telling everyone to get down.

Are we becoming a culture numb to gun violence?

I would say that the suppressed rifle report would be far less likely to sound like gunfire from a distance. Plus, when a rifle is suppressed, the sound signature is out in front of the rifle when the bullet breaks the sound barrier. So it’s not easy to tell where the shots are coming from. I shoot quite a bit of suppressed 223 and 6.5, and have hunted with other guys using the same. It’s definitely a far different sound than unsuppressed gunfire. Especially at a distance.

 

[Scott CWO]

VP will be Youngkin or Burgum. Outside chance is Scott.

 

[Saul]

VP will be Youngkin or Burgum. Outside chance is Scott.

Is Youngkin even under consideration? I thought it was down to Vance, Burgum, and Rubio.

 

[mdwest]

Is Youngkin even under consideration? I thought it was down to Vance, Burgum, and Rubio.

I dont think anyone really knows for sure.. the Trump camp has kept incredibly tight lips on this one for sure..

To be honest, it wouldnt surprise me if Ivanka or Don Jr were named at this point ..

 

[BJH65]

I am intrigued by Vance as a politician, but I also do not think he will bring much in the way of an election boost to Trump.

Hello Saul,

I‘m just curious, since the failed assassination attempt, do you still feel the same about Trump? This could be asked of other Trump detractors too. It seems that more than a few detractors acknowledge a grudging admiration for him based on how he responded during this horrible event. It seems more than a few very vocal Trump detractors in the media and public purview have changed their mind and acknowledge their public support of Trump. I am honestly curious and always appreciate your viewpoint.

 

[John Wasmuth]

Hoping that Scott gets the nod.

 

[Hunt anything]

I think Vance is ok.. but.. I hope he is not Trumps pick...

Trump won Ohio by 8 points the last time around.. and he is poised to win Ohio pretty easily this time around as well.. he doesnt need Vance to help pull in Ohio or other states in the general area..

And while Vance was in years past pretty vocally opposed to Trump on several issues.. in recent history he has shown himself to be a fairly avowed loyalist.. which wont help bring in the centrists and independents that Trump needs to win in November..

Rubio MIGHT help a little bit to bring in more minorities.. but I dont think he'll help much.. and Trump wont need any help pulling in Florida.. so I dont know that Rubio brings much value either.. while I dont think he'd be a bad VP.. Trump has to win the office first.. or who is good or bad really doesnt make any difference at all..

I like Bergum too.. but I think he is simply too unknown to the American people.. and would just be another older white guy on the ticket... he doesnt do anything to advance Trumps chances of a win..


I actually like the above three individually better than a Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard, etc. type choice.. but.. I think Haley or Gabbard bring more to the table that help to ensure a win... They would validate to some degree that Trump can see past former arguments/conflicts and get past grudges, etc in order to make positive decisions.. they would bring in more women voters that for whatever reason believe we MUST have a woman in the white house (as opposed to simply wanting the most qualified person available).. etc..etc..

and while I dont think Trump has a chance in hell of winning Hawaii.. Gabbard at least gives him a chance..

Vance would not be my pick either. I was leaning towards Youngkin, he may not help Trump win Virginia but it would be close so the democrats would have to dump a shit ton of money in there to hold it.

 

[sgt_zim]

There is also a main artery or vain that if nicked will cause a person to bleed out within a few seconds...less than a minute.

Its been a few years since biology and med classes to name the artery or vain and correct time to bleed out.

Hopefully one of our esteem nurses or doctors, members can chime in with the correct terminology and time to bleed out that l am referring to

There are several pretty big/important ones around the heart - superior and inferior vena cava (this is the vein that feeds the heart de-oxygenated blood), pulmonary artery, pulmonary vein, aorta - which would lead to rapid exsanguination.

 

[jpr9954]

Smith will definitely appeal...

But Im not 100% convinced he will succeed..

Cannons ruling overturns "20 years of precedent".. ok... well.. 20 years really isnt that long of a period of time all things considered.. that means for 200+ years things were done differently..

And November will come and go before any appeal gets fully heard and decided upon.. the outcome of November will likely significantly influence the DOJ's willingness to continue to pursue or not..

If you read Justice Thomas' concurring opinion in Trump v. US, he made the same point about the appointment of Jack Smith as did Judge Cannon.

My guess is that she looked over his concurring opinion which she noted in her opinion and decided he was correct.

 

[mdwest]

the democrats would have to dump a shit ton of money in there to hold it.

Completely agree..

They would have to rally Richmond and NoVA extremely hard.. and even then would be going into Nov 5th not 100% convinced they are going to win the state..

 

[Altitude sickness]

So I get better odds . I’m going with Nikki Haley as Trumps VP pick. She released her delegates 2 weeks ago and is MIA. And not on the convention list. Something is in the air

I would like to see Yongkin, Haley or Scott to help with the Ticket. But any of these names would be good VP’s Burgum could be President now. He just doesn’t have the recognition, or bring a needed state along.

 

[mdwest]

So I get better odds . I’m going with Nikki Haley as Trumps VP pick. She released her delegates 2 weeks ago and is MIA. And not on the convention list. Something is in the air

Things have changed..

Haley is not only going to be at the convention.. she is now scheduled to speak at the RNC...


In other news.. Trump announced this morning that he is going to reveal his VP pick tonight at the RNC.. we shouldnt have to wait much longer to find out who is on the ticket..

https://www.npr.org/live-updates/trump-2024-rnc-milwaukee