Politics

I am curious if there is a Democratic candidate that can beat Trump without an assassin being successful. Does anyone think even Michelle Obama could pull off a win? I assume she is the Democrat party’s wet dream candidate. Polling has been sketchy since 2016, so I don’t trust it this far from Election Day.
 
I am curious if there is a Democratic candidate that can beat Trump without an assassin being successful. Does anyone think even Michelle Obama could pull off a win? I assume she is the Democrat party’s wet dream candidate. Polling has been sketchy since 2016, so I don’t trust it this far from Election Day.
Several are within single digits of Trump. I think those polls could change a lot with the full weight of the democrat party and sympathetic media behind a new candidate regardless who it might be.
 
Possibly. Was Trump wearing a kevlar vest? I would think so.
From the aerial photo, it looks like Trump would be standing sideways to the shooter where a headshot would be the only lethal target?

Center mass side shot. Liver, kidneys, lungs, heart, intestines, if center or low, armpit, if high. Providing the left and right are good.

But that's the difference between a trained shooter and a wannabe.

Also my guess is USSS did everything but forcibly strap a vest on Trump due to lack of manpower. Thus a head shot was the only vulnerable shot.

Looking at the various videos, it looks like there were a lot of variables that took place to make this a grazing wound instead of kill shot.

1. The shooter knew he was getting attention so he rushed the shot and most likely pulled the trigger. Just overall piss poor failure to use proper shooter disciplines. Shooter's lack of skill, range practice and practice for this long of shot for him, etc. that have already been mentioned.

2. Timing...Trump pointing at the "monitor" and tilted his head toward the microphone at the same instant the shooter pulled the trigger. Bullet speed...bullet was traveling faster than Trump was moving his head. Thus the unknown was this the first or second bullet fired that nicked Trumps ear?

3. Only 2 REACT guys on the stage, Not sure about 2 USSS, but it looked as though most of the USSS were off the stage and had to run up the steps to reach Trump who had already ducked for cover several seconds after seeing the blood on his hand from his ear.
 
I would disagree with this. SCOTUS has changed significantly for the first time since FDR reworked the court. SCOTUS has already made significant rulings in the past couple of years that have overturned years of status quo. ie: Dobbs, Chevron Doctrine, Corner Post. IMO, Thomas signaled Cannon regarding Smith. If it gets to the Supreme Court, Thomas knows he has the votes.

On a side note regarding SCOTUS, Sotomayor has significant health issues. It wouldn't be surprising if she resigns and lets Biden try to place a new Justice prior to the inauguration. There are two main problems, timing is running short along with uncertainty concerning Manchin and Sinema.
Thomas has maybe two other votes, though I doubt it will get there.

I believe Sotomayor’s imminent retirement has been highly exaggerated. This has been a popular topic of conversation in leftist spaces for a while, and I do not give it much credence.
 
A side shot is devastating to the human chest. With or without body armor. It’s the worst angle to get hit by a rifle. Just under the armpit is a double lung and top of the heart.

Front or rear chest shots are much easier to survive.
 
Is it just me or do others notice:

Okay, maybe firecrackers to several witnesses.. at first. But then it's "Oh Shit" gunfire/gunshots. And only a (very) few folks in the bleachers behind and what can be seen of the first 3 rows of seats in front of the podium in front of Trump trying to take cover.

Why aren't spectators piling up on top of each other trying to get down, diving for cover?

Especially when LEOs are telling everyone to get down.

Are we becoming a culture numb to gun violence?
 
A side shot is devastating to the human chest. With or without body armor. It’s the worst angle to get hit by a rifle. Just under the armpit is a double lung and top of the heart.

Front or rear chest shots are much easier to survive.

There is also a main artery or vain that if nicked will cause a person to bleed out within a few seconds...less than a minute.

Its been a few years since biology and med classes to name the artery or vain and correct time to bleed out.

Hopefully one of our esteem nurses or doctors, members can chime in with the correct terminology and time to bleed out that l am referring to
 
Spot on sir. I too worked as a cop for 25 years in a large metro area about 1.6 million population with approximately 1600-1700 sworn. I still remember a call for service for some type of disturbance, my cover officer was a 5-3 130 female. Upon arrival and contact we were faced with a 300 plus lb angry Samoan male, suffering from some type of psychotic episode and you could see in his eyes he was getting ready to go berserk. I called for backup, instructed my partner to stand away with her back to a wall, and if I lost, to shoot him. This was before the issuance of Tasers (which are not always effective). My less lethal weapons were a 29 inch cocobolo wood baton and pepper spray.

I will say I worked with some pretty good female cops however. They knew their physical limitations and performed accordingly. In my opinion, the majority of the job involved using your brain housing group, practicing good officer safety at all times and making sound tactical decisions. Just like the military, there were two separate physical performance standards, a reduced standard for females.

Our agency had a very liberal use of force policy, the carotid artery hold was still authorized as less lethal force and lethal force could be used for a size disparity physical threat to mention a couple. I recall a smaller male officer, probably 5-4, 150 lbs, chasing a strong arm robbery suspect who was significantly larger, who stopped, turned and faced the officer and punched him. The officer subsequently shot the suspect (We averaged 12 or more OIS a year). I was 6-3, 245 during those years (I’ve slimmed down a bit in retirement) and I remember thinking to myself, damn there would be a lot of bodies laying on the street if I shot every suspect who tried to punch me!

We had a full time SWAT team of 12 officers and a reserve team of 12 officers. There had never been a female SWAT officer in the history of our department, primarily because they stubbornly refused to utilize the National FBI physical testing standard for SWAT. Part of our own in house SWAT test involved doing a minimum of 4 pull-ups with a weighted 45 lb. vest. Very few females on our agency could do this. I knew of one, a weightlifter, but she was never interested in SWAT. As an aside, I say SWAT so the reader can readily identify, our acronym was SED, special emergency detail.

Those were the good ol’ days, sure miss them. Anyways, as long as all standards are met, I have no problem. Where standards are lowered, I have a problem.
For us the changes started taking place right before 9/11. And they weren’t for the better.
 
Several are within single digits of Trump. I think those polls could change a lot with the full weight of the democrat party and sympathetic media behind a new candidate regardless who it might be.
I know my questions was asking the reader to look into the crystal ball, per se. I just can’t trust polls since 2016. You might be absolutely accurate with your comment. I am just using history for my question. Reagan and T.R. both had assassination attempts against them. They are considered above average presidents. I just don’t see a silver bullet outside of Michelle. I know that the media will work overtime to hype her. I just don’t know how much more money is in the donors’ coffers to lay down with less than 6 months from an election.

I genuinely hope it is Kamala this year. I want to see that debate.
 
Thomas has maybe two other votes, though I doubt it will get there.

I believe Sotomayor’s imminent retirement has been highly exaggerated. This has been a popular topic of conversation in leftist spaces for a while, and I do not give it much credence.

You may be correct on Sotomayor remaining.

Virtually everything I post in this thread is public information and my opinion. I am not a person in the know. Regarding SCOTUS and some Circuits, I actually have some information that is not in the public sphere. The public questions regarding her health may actually be understating the severity of her condition.
 
A side shot is devastating to the human chest. With or without body armor. It’s the worst angle to get hit by a rifle. Just under the armpit is a double lung and top of the heart.

Front or rear chest shots are much easier to survive.
Yep, we’re just like any other mammal, maybe even more fragile in ways. A double lung and your finished.
 
I know my questions was asking the reader to look into the crystal ball, per se. I just can’t trust polls since 2016. You might be absolutely accurate with your comment. I am just using history for my question. Reagan and T.R. both had assassination attempts against them. They are considered above average presidents. I just don’t see a silver bullet outside of Michelle. I know that the media will work overtime to hype her. I just don’t know how much more money is in the donors’ coffers to lay down with less than 6 months from an election.

I genuinely hope it is Kamala this year. I want to see that debate.
Michelle will not be the nominee. Without a radical shakeup at the top of the Dem ticket, I think Trump stands a very good chance of winning, but it is most certainly not a done deal by any means.
 
IMO, 80% Vance is VP pick, Rubio 15% and Bergum 5%.

I think Vance is ok.. but.. I hope he is not Trumps pick...

Trump won Ohio by 8 points the last time around.. and he is poised to win Ohio pretty easily this time around as well.. he doesnt need Vance to help pull in Ohio or other states in the general area..

And while Vance was in years past pretty vocally opposed to Trump on several issues.. in recent history he has shown himself to be a fairly avowed loyalist.. which wont help bring in the centrists and independents that Trump needs to win in November..

Rubio MIGHT help a little bit to bring in more minorities.. but I dont think he'll help much.. and Trump wont need any help pulling in Florida.. so I dont know that Rubio brings much value either.. while I dont think he'd be a bad VP.. Trump has to win the office first.. or who is good or bad really doesnt make any difference at all..

I like Bergum too.. but I think he is simply too unknown to the American people.. and would just be another older white guy on the ticket... he doesnt do anything to advance Trumps chances of a win..


I actually like the above three individually better than a Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard, etc. type choice.. but.. I think Haley or Gabbard bring more to the table that help to ensure a win... They would validate to some degree that Trump can see past former arguments/conflicts and get past grudges, etc in order to make positive decisions.. they would bring in more women voters that for whatever reason believe we MUST have a woman in the white house (as opposed to simply wanting the most qualified person available).. etc..etc..

and while I dont think Trump has a chance in hell of winning Hawaii.. Gabbard at least gives him a chance..
 
Michelle will not be the nominee. Without a radical shakeup at the top of the Dem ticket, I think Trump stands a very good chance of winning, but it is most certainly not a done deal by any means.

Without Biden falling deeply ill or dying before the DNC, I feel pretty confident we're not going to see a change in the D ticket at this point.. those that wanted to see Biden gone tried very hard to get enough traction to make that happen over the last few weeks, and it didnt work.. and now the country is far more focused on the assassination attempt of trump than they are Biden not being able to string more than 9 words together after 8PM... It will be at least 2-3 more weeks before Trump isnt the sole focus of the media and the general public.. the RNC kicks off today, etc..etc..

3 weeks from now, puts us just 1-2 weeks before the DNC.. which isnt enough time to get the momentum needed to put another candidate in place (again, unless biden suddenly becomes incredibly ill or dies)..
 
Thomas has maybe two other votes, though I doubt it will get there.

I believe Sotomayor’s imminent retirement has been highly exaggerated. This has been a popular topic of conversation in leftist spaces for a while, and I do not give it much credence.

If Sotomayor was going to retire, the time to do that was 3-4 months ago... to give plenty of time to work through the desired replacement candidates, and to make as much political hay as possible during the election cycle...

What the D's dont want (I would think) right now is the shit show that would ensue with the pressing of a far left candidate this close to the election... that would make for easy targeting by the right... and every website on the web would be full of "the court is going to let little boys pee in little girls bathrooms!" and "your guns are gone!" type articles and discussions..

And I think what the D's want even less is a very moderate and centrist liberal justice on the court.. thats not going to satisfy their base at this point..

So.. strategically, the best move is to let Sotomayor sit.. pray that the D's retain the whitehouse.. and then let her retire in early 2025..

If Trump retakes the whitehouse.. I can see Sotomayor trying to hang on for another 4 years.. in hopes that the next D will retake the oval office in 2028 and she can retire shortly thereafter..
 

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