Politics

@ActionBob has given you an accurate response to your question. The critics of supporting Ukraine point to billions of dollars being "given" to Ukraine where there is supposedly no accountability and where much of it flows back into the hands of - pick your favorite political enemy. I can't speak for every dollar, but I can assure you that the vast majority or weapons provided have been through Presidential draw-down authority. No "money" changes hands outside the internal US budgetary process.

As a former commanding general of US Army Security Assistance Command, I have a fairly good understanding how the process actually works. The executive branch goes to congress to request an aid package for X amount of dollars. Let's say the package contains the cost of 50 M777 howitzers, 6 HIMARS launchers, 100K 155mm howitzer rounds and 1200 GMLRS rockets. The howitzers and HIMARS are sitting in storage after being retired from the Marine Corps. A value is assigned to them based upon their sale value in a military assistance sale to an ally who might be purchasing them (it is a bit more complex but that is the gist of it). There will also be a training package cost associated with providing the howitzers. That total value is then deducted from the allocation.

The ammunition is also in storage. All rounds have shelf-life - rockets considerably less than standard artillery rounds. We will provide them the oldest stocks first. Again, a value will be assigned based on the remaining shelf life. In many cases, particularly older howitzer rounds, the provision of these rounds to Ukraine may actually save DOD money by not requiring de-mill of older munitions. Again, no one gives Ukraine a dollar to go buy those weapons or munitions.

If it is a unique product which is being provided to Ukraine directly by the contractor, then DOD will cut the contract using the allocation as the accountability line. The Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost loitering munitions have been acquired in this manner. Again, no one hands Ukraine a wad of cash to buy weapons.

There are other allocations provided for humanitarian relief, medical support, intell, etc. Many of those are managed by State or CIA. I can not speak to the accountability of those efforts other than to say both the department and Central Intelligence are under fairly strict congressional oversight.

Your question about whether the Ukrainian people deserve our help is, to me at least, not the right one. I really don't care what kind of government they have. I believe they are making a genuine effort to integrate their society and future with Western Europe. I believe that is laudatory. Others here claim they are no different than Russians and are not worthy of our support. I think both assumptions miss the point. In my mind, the issue is Russian Imperial designs on Central Europe and economic designs on Western Europe. Regardless of Ukraine's adherence to the principals and spirit of Jeffersonian democracy, Russian aggression must be stopped now in Ukraine before my grandchild is facing a far more powerful Russia over the next decades. And I absolutely believe the parallels to Hitler, Chamberlain, Germany, and Czechoslovakia in 1938 are blinding in their clarity.

The last question is the sort of conspiratorial nonsense one reads on sites like InfoWars and in the comments section on Breitbart. DOD's best public estimate is that Russia has lost 150,000 casualties (with over 50,000 KIA), two thirds of their modernized armor force, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and a quarter of its most modern attack helicopters and ground attack aircraft. The damage to their economy will be generational. They have lost them because a nation a third their size has decided to sacrifice a generation of its own to preserve its independence and future. The conspiracy nuts seem to miss all that in their machinations.

Lastly, read these money pipeline cartoons and memes with a critical eye. Ukraine like the US has financial relationships with all sorts of international institutions. If they are American institutions they give political contributions to both parties. The same meme could be aimed at every other developed nation on the planet.

The Republican leadership largely gets the importance of stopping Russian ambitions. While the MTG's of the world scream for ending funding, the leadership is calling for an audit process of aid to Ukraine. If it gives more voters confidence, I think that is great idea. Most of it will simply be a review of department budgeting an allocation assumptions. I suspect such oversight would be most useful in tracking humanitarian allocations. In either case, it provides our party's leadership some political cover to continue to do the right thing.

But let me address the 800lb gorilla issue directly. I believe a big problem is Trump. Like most things with this self-indulgent politician, I believe his opposition to helping Ukraine has almost nothing to do with our national interests and everything to do with his personal animus toward Zelensky who in his view should have done more to expose Biden family involvement in Ukraine. Needless to say, no national leader with any sense is going to involve himself in another country's internal political affairs, particularly when he is faced with an existential threat for which he desperately hopes for US/NATO support regardless of which party is in control. All things considered, judging by the bipartisan support he has received, I think Zelensky was wise.
Thanks for your reply.

There are people I know and I value their opinions and ideas. These people include personal life time friends, AH people I have met, and social media people. In about 99% of the time we are in agreement. However, on this subject of aid to Ukraine to drive off Putin, I have found I have a very distinctly different opinion on the subject than some of these people. When that occurs I have learned as a average lifetime public school educator and D-line coach to throw my hand up and say ”Help, I don’t get where you are coming from.”

People have responded to my questions, I am greatly appreciative. People that I disagree with on this subject have made valid points. These are points that need to be considered. It keeps the pendulum from swinging to far.

I believe we are in the right by supporting Ukraine in providing military equipment to help them drive out Putin’s army. I believe as the Ukrainian army becomes more westernized and achieves success on the battlefield that the individual soldiers after the war will want to bring more of the western mind sets into Ukraine. This would and could include how to do business, how to govern properly, and how to think independently. In the end I would hope that the concept of “…that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.“ will take hold.

For all of ya’ll who responded thanks. For those who are typing away now thank you too.
 
The last question is the sort of conspiratorial nonsense one reads on sites like InfoWars and in the comments section on Breitbart.
Yes, I know but I always had that one student that was into every conspiracy. I just used the conspiracy to get that student to participate in class. Old habits are hard to break.
 
@Red Leg Your post reminded me of what I was once told by an old grizzled WW2 Colonel. He said we'll always have wars to get rid of the old munitions and then get newer and better ones. As you said, it's probalby a lot cheaper to ship them to Ukraine than to de-mil them.
 
There is quite a lot we do not know about the results of continued U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war. However, there are a few things that are known:

1) This week Generals' Lloyd and Milley made it abundantly clear that the U.S. is committed to provide military support to Ukraine for "as long as it takes"..

2) The "existential" threat Russia poses to the U.S. is still undefined in clear and specific terms as it pertains to U.S involvement in this war.

3) Other than the promise of "as long as it takes" the U.S. Government has yet to provide a clear, defined strategy for our continued support or a plan for the end game.

3) The immediate threat of our escalated involvement is very clear.

4) Zelinsky has lost all credibility and and has now become a U.S. liability with his continued and escalated demands for nuclear strikes against Russia. His latest demand for direct U.S. and NATO involvement after the Polish missile incident even before the source was verified was demonstrative of reckless irresponsibility, and madness no different Putin.

5) Overall American public support for escalation of the war is waning.. About 65% now support U.S. involvement down from 73% a year ago.. The same 65% continue to fear an nuclear conflict with Russia if the U.S. escalates it's military support with offensive weapons to Ukraine. The same polls also indicate that Americans are less likely to support any candidate who continues to advocate military spending in Ukraine.

As a side thought to @Red Leg, with all due respect, many, including myself, would argue that Trump was the sole deterrent keeping Russia from invading the Ukraine in the first place.
 
There is quite a lot we do not know about the results of continued U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war. However, there are a few things that are known:

1) This week Generals' Lloyd and Milley made it abundantly clear that the U.S. is committed to provide military support to Ukraine for "as long as it takes"..

2) The "existential" threat Russia poses to the U.S. is still undefined in clear and specific terms as it pertains to U.S involvement in this war.

3) Other than the promise of "as long as it takes" the U.S. Government has yet to provide a clear, defined strategy for our continued support or a plan for the end game.

3) The immediate threat of our escalated involvement is very clear.

4) Zelinsky has lost all credibility and and has now become a U.S. liability with his continued and escalated demands for nuclear strikes against Russia. His latest demand for direct U.S. and NATO involvement after the Polish missile incident even before the source was verified was demonstrative of reckless irresponsibility, and madness no different Putin.

5) Overall American public support for escalation of the war is waning.. About 65% now support U.S. involvement down from 73% a year ago.. The same 65% continue to fear an nuclear conflict with Russia if the U.S. escalates it's military support with offensive weapons to Ukraine. The same polls also indicate that Americans are less likely to support any candidate who continues to advocate military spending in Ukraine.

As a side thought to @Red Leg, with all due respect, many, including myself, would argue that Trump was the sole deterrent keeping Russia from invading the Ukraine in the first place.
Certainly Trump and his dedicated followers believe that. It is the same argument that has been made about the Afghanistan debacle. We'll never know, though Trump's Afghan plan had us withdrawing even more precipitously than Biden. That is a fact by the way. How he may have managed the actual process we'll never know. With his public issues with Zelensky, I am not sure Russia would have seen him as any more of a deterrent than Biden. But, we will never know that either.

Your comment about Zelensky is curious. I would guess to the majority of the Western world he is one of the most credible leaders on the planet. He had the opportunity to flee Ukraine at the start of the Russian invasion, and chose to stay and lead his people in the defense of their independence. I have enormous respect for what he has accomplished in marshalling his own people and broad international support.

We believe that the Russian missile - an S300 or S400 ADA weapon was likely fired by Ukraine. However, no definitive decision has been announced by the inspection team. The problem is that Russia has been firing both of the same missiles in ground to ground mode due to growing shortages of their cruise and battlefield ballistic missiles. As I say, it is likely it was a malfunctioning Ukrainian weapon, but the jury is still technically out.

But yes, Zelensky would love for NATO to more aggressively help Ukraine stop the barrage of missiles that is damaging the country's infrastructure and killing his citizens. It has been something they have called for since the start of the war. He has never called for nuclear strikes against Russia. Never.

To date, we have taken a measured response by providing them with additional ADA weaponry, but we have no intent of fighting an air supremacy campaign over Ukraine. The only way we achieve that is by integrating SEAD/DEAD strikes against Russian long range ADA assets located within Russia and Belarus. That is not going to happen.

But pushing for greater support? That is hardly madness. It is responsible leadership.

With respect to strategy, this is not a US or even NATO conflict. We have no troops deployed in Ukraine. We have no intention of deploying any troops in Ukraine. We are simply supporting Ukraine in its effort to defend its territorial integrity. This war will end in negotiations. Everyone realizes that. Neither belligerent has the power to dictate peace in the other's capital. As long as Ukraine is winning, and I see little likelihood the correlation in forces will in any meaningful way shift to Russia's favor, the pressure on Russia to reach a diplomatic solution in Ukraine's favor will only continue to grow.

In short, we will not determine this end game. Ukraine and Russia will.

Assuming Russia has finally understood this, they nevertheless are presumably hoping that US and European support will wither over the winter or that their mobilization effort will produce a winter miracle. At this point, I don't think either is likely. Obviously, should the US walk away from its support, it would affect Ukraine's ability to wage its war of independence, but I am not certain it will affect its will.

Finally let me address this expense argument which has come up in other posts. The Iraq war cost us $1.9 trillion. The Afghanistan conflict added another trillion. The financed costs will drive it far higher over time. I, and most other old Middle East hands, never did understand the Iraq incursion. I think everyone in the military saw the need to enter Afghanistan to destroy as much of the Al-Qaeda network as possible. After 18-24 months we should have left. But we didn't. In both cases, we would indeed have greatly benefited from a clear strategy.

Afghanistan was necessary but of tertiary strategic importance. Iraq is simply puzzling. Stopping Russian European ambitions is, to my mind, infinitely more important with respect to our enduring national interests than anything remotely associated with Afghanistan or Iraq. And our investment in that effort is tiny in comparison.

And I also grow tired of the comparison to Russia's annual defense budget. What is the point that is trying to be made? Russia has been spending those more or less those sums for two and half decades to create the army that invaded Ukraine. By that measure, we have provided Ukraine little more than life support.

I sincerely doubt that Ukraine will be a major issue in the run-up to '24 with anyone but the dedicated Trump supporters. I could be absolutely wrong with respect to that, but we will have the idea to discover its accuracy.
 
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Any idea when the outstanding five or so house seats will be called? Yes, the house is won, but surely the seven days are up, are the centres allowed to drag their feet like this?
 
Any idea when the outstanding five or so house seats will be called?
It could go on and on- it depends on how much money the DemonRats and their union supporters as well as their athletic supporters are willing to spend on recounts and re-counts of re-counts. Hopefully they will have them resolved by the time the changeover occurs.
 
In 1961 President Eisenhower warned of the demands being placed on the government by the lobbyists of the industry supplying military equipment. In 1972 in a lecture given by liberal economist John K Galbraith he warned of the costs (of several sorts) demanded by the Military Industrial Complex. In 1973 in a lecture given by conservative economist Milton Friedman he warned of the Leviathan government including the Military Industrial Complex that was a great threat to our liberties. An now in 2022 I see that nothing is changed- except for the worse. The military wants to produce more weapons and justifies the need by disposing of "old" weaponry. Only now it isn't just the traditional military and its suppliers but now the military is being subverted by the social justice/"woke" leaders.
At some point it would seem a change of direction would be coming- but so far, I don't see any.
 
In 1961 President Eisenhower warned of the demands being placed on the government by the lobbyists of the industry supplying military equipment. In 1972 in a lecture given by liberal economist John K Galbraith he warned of the costs (of several sorts) demanded by the Military Industrial Complex. In 1973 in a lecture given by conservative economist Milton Friedman he warned of the Leviathan government including the Military Industrial Complex that was a great threat to our liberties. An now in 2022 I see that nothing is changed- except for the worse. The military wants to produce more weapons and justifies the need by disposing of "old" weaponry. Only now it isn't just the traditional military and its suppliers but now the military is being subverted by the social justice/"woke" leaders.
At some point it would seem a change of direction would be coming- but so far, I don't see any.
"The military wants to produce more weapons and justifies the need by disposing of "old" weaponry."

Regrettably, Moore's Law applies to weaponry as much as desktops and cell phones. I assume we don't want to send American infantrymen into combat with Garands and without night and thermal vision, effective body armor, and secure communications. The old M113 was mechanically reliable but Russia, China and their clients are manning BMP's equipped with 30 mm auto cannons. If we can take one thing away from the current Ukrainian conflict with which everyone might agree, it is that the side with best kit has a distinct advantage. Real game changers for Ukraine have been ATGMs like Javelin (developed 20 years ago), the GMLRS (GPS guided) rocket for the HIMARS, and the Excalibur (GPS guided) artillery round both of fairly recent development.

I should also note that our 155mm howitzers are trundling around on a chassis designed in the 1960's. The M1 Abrams was initially fielded in 1980. Yes it has been modernized, but the design is nearly fifty years old. The prototype of the AH64 Apache was first flown in 1975.

Fighter and bomber aircraft consume an enormous part of our defense expenditures. However, our military doctrine rests upon the premise that we can achieve air superiority over the operational battlespace. We have, therefore, attempted to maintain a generation separation between ourselves and potential threats. It is a battle that we can not afford to lose.
 
In 1961 President Eisenhower warned of the demands being placed on the government by the lobbyists of the industry supplying military equipment.
No. NO NO NO NO NO.

That's not what he said, and not what he meant. I am sorry if I sound snippy, but I have heard this trope so many times, I just don't have patience any longer.

What he said was: "This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together."

In other words, just because you _have_ the capability, doesn't mean you rely on it. Don't let them tell you the technology will solve the problem. Be informed. Use the tool appropriately, don't rely on the tool. "We recognize the imperative need for this development", but "We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing..."

He also went on to say: "Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.

In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite."

Within 15 years, we had the EPA. Re-read that last paragraph, and think of the covid response.

The most important part of the speech came earlier:

"Crises there will continue to be. In meeting them, whether foreign or domestic, great or small, there is a recurring temptation to feel that some spectacular and costly action could become the miraculous solution to all current difficulties. A huge increase in newer elements of our defense; development of unrealistic programs to cure every ill in agriculture; a dramatic expansion in basic and applied research -- these and many other possibilities, each possibly promising in itself, may be suggested as the only way to the road we wish to travel.

But each proposal must be weighed in the light of a broader consideration: the need to maintain balance in and among national programs -- balance between the private and the public economy, balance between cost and hoped for advantage -- balance between the clearly necessary and the comfortably desirable; balance between our essential requirements as a nation and the duties imposed by the nation upon the individual; balance between actions of the moment and the national welfare of the future. Good judgment seeks balance and progress; lack of it eventually finds imbalance and frustration."



I can't stress this enough. His warning was that because we had the need, we were developing a very powerful tool... but the master uses the tool. Never let the tool become the master.
 
I can't stress this enough. His warning was that because we had the need, we were developing a very powerful tool... but the master uses the tool. Never let the tool become the master.
This is a great post!
Sadly I am afraid Princess Bride may use this last paragraph against me when I mention the need for a new rifle.
 
Caveat: I feel much safer walking through the Tall Grass in Africa than walking from the gas pumps to the store at Buc-ees

Enjoy

 
IMG_8655.JPG
 
There is quite a lot we do not know about the results of continued U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war. However, there are a few things that are known:

1) This week Generals' Lloyd and Milley made it abundantly clear that the U.S. is committed to provide military support to Ukraine for "as long as it takes"..

2) The "existential" threat Russia poses to the U.S. is still undefined in clear and specific terms as it pertains to U.S involvement in this war.

3) Other than the promise of "as long as it takes" the U.S. Government has yet to provide a clear, defined strategy for our continued support or a plan for the end game.

3) The immediate threat of our escalated involvement is very clear.

4) Zelinsky has lost all credibility and and has now become a U.S. liability with his continued and escalated demands for nuclear strikes against Russia. His latest demand for direct U.S. and NATO involvement after the Polish missile incident even before the source was verified was demonstrative of reckless irresponsibility, and madness no different Putin.

5) Overall American public support for escalation of the war is waning.. About 65% now support U.S. involvement down from 73% a year ago.. The same 65% continue to fear an nuclear conflict with Russia if the U.S. escalates it's military support with offensive weapons to Ukraine. The same polls also indicate that Americans are less likely to support any candidate who continues to advocate military spending in Ukraine.

As a side thought to @Red Leg, with all due respect, many, including myself, would argue that Trump was the sole deterrent keeping Russia from invading the Ukraine in the first place.

If Zelinsky has called for nuclear strikes on Russia please provide your source. I do not believe this to be true, but if it is I would like to see it.
 
In the economic realm there are two types of activities: Those that produce and those that prevent. Those that produce are the ones that generate products and add to the supply side of the supply-demand curve. Those that prevent are needed because there are things that need to be prevented. The prevention of things doesn't generate supply, it merely prevents a product from being destroyed. They do not add to the supply.
Examples of producers are farmers, miners, steel and other metal mills, manufacturing as well as distribution- truckers, trains, shipping and marketing.
Examples of preventers are police, fire suppression, health services and military. While their services are needed since the world is not a perfect society, they do not add to supply.
One of the reasons Japan recovered so ashes to become a world class economy was that Japan's expenditure on military was very limited. The result was the preponderance of its national product was invested in producers, very little going to preventers.
 
In the economic realm there are two types of activities: Those that produce and those that prevent. Those that produce are the ones that generate products and add to the supply side of the supply-demand curve. Those that prevent are needed because there are things that need to be prevented. The prevention of things doesn't generate supply, it merely prevents a product from being destroyed. They do not add to the supply.
Examples of producers are farmers, miners, steel and other metal mills, manufacturing as well as distribution- truckers, trains, shipping and marketing.
Examples of preventers are police, fire suppression, health services and military. While their services are needed since the world is not a perfect society, they do not add to supply.
One of the reasons Japan recovered so ashes to become a world class economy was that Japan's expenditure on military was very limited. The result was the preponderance of its national product was invested in producers, very little going to preventers.

So is this a good thing given the history since WWII?
 
So is this a good thing ?
It isn't a good or a bad thing- it's a reality. While preventers are needed, clearly given the number of bad actors in the world, it must be remembered that every dollar spent for a preventer could have been spent on a producer.
 
In the economic realm there are two types of activities: Those that produce and those that prevent. Those that produce are the ones that generate products and add to the supply side of the supply-demand curve. Those that prevent are needed because there are things that need to be prevented. The prevention of things doesn't generate supply, it merely prevents a product from being destroyed. They do not add to the supply.
Examples of producers are farmers, miners, steel and other metal mills, manufacturing as well as distribution- truckers, trains, shipping and marketing.
Examples of preventers are police, fire suppression, health services and military. While their services are needed since the world is not a perfect society, they do not add to supply.
One of the reasons Japan recovered so ashes to become a world class economy was that Japan's expenditure on military was very limited. The result was the preponderance of its national product was invested in producers, very little going to preventers.
Iceland even more so
 
Regarding the military industrial complex…..

I hate war. It is without question the most moronic thing we as humans have invented. But unfortunately there are Hitlers and Stalins amongst our species. And there will continue to be more as evidenced by Putin.

I wish indeed that WWII had ended as it did with victory for the free world. But the result of the USA (not entirely the USA, but mostly) becoming the policeman to the world, man that has saddled us with a lot of cost. Worth it? I don’t know, maybe. But such a high cost.

It ultimately however defeated the USSR and has kept China in check. I do not want to take away credit from the likes of @Red Leg and his colleagues and the role they have played in the post WWII period, but blood, brains and courage were not enough alone to maintain that status.

While I hate war, I was never opposed to working for defense contractors. My first job as a co-op/intern engineer was working for a facility of IBM during the late 80’s. That facility was responsible for the development of naval submarine sonar systems the likes of which were unmatched at least at that time. Not only was I not opposed to working on those products, I was damned proud of my newbie engineering efforts.

Following graduation from college I went to work in Ft Worth, TX for General Dynamics. I was working on the F-16 aircraft, specifically on the software used by the avionics on board. I took that job damned seriously, and I loved it. I was even recognized by USAF officers for my efforts. Unfortunately there came this giant cut on DoD spending under the first President Bush and his SecDef Dick Cheney. The writing on the wall made it appear that my future there was short lived.

So what did I do? I went to work for Westinghouse in nuclear power. This resulted in a job in Idaho at what was then called the INEL. It is the location of the birthplace on U.S. Naval nuclear propulsion. But unfortunately due to budget, the future appeared glim working for U.S. defense.

It was at this point in time I turned to the field of commercial electronics. I had a wife to support and plans for children too afterall. And this has been my field for the last 28 years. And I’m not alone, many of my fellow engineers left defense work. With that, much potential experience has been lost.

At this point in time I could be an extremely valuable asset in the defense industry, but I’m not. There has certainly been those who stuck it out, but not like it could’ve been.

The point to my little diatribe here is what you may ask? The point is you don’t develop these defense systems with new engineers alone. It requires seasoned leadership to develop those systems while also training the kids. Those new grads of today become the leaders of tomorrow. It takes time and it takes money. Cutting the money isn’t a short term effect, it has long term detrimental effects. Overcoming the years of developing that talent in turn also takes years. Do you really want to let our competition catch up or surpass us?
 

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can you send some pics of the 2.5-10 zeiss. I can't click on the pics to see the details. You noted some scratches. thx.
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