Politics

[Hunter4752001]

@375 Ruger Fan @Pondoro Russian troops have been occupying the Transnistria region since the 1990s. As part of this years "military exercises" they put several thousand extra troops into the region. I agree that Russia will eventually want to annex the entire country.

 

[Spooksar]

Hey quit worrying about the great Justin Turdhole just flew over to solve things. I’m sure he’ll um, ah and call people racist and misogynist and that will solve all the problems over there. while wearing a black face.

 

[spike.t]

Got sent this ....

Good analysis
Xi is the only leader who can stop the war in Ukraine

Xi is the only leader who can stop the war in Ukraine

Only one person in the world has the power to halt the bloodshed in Ukraine. You might think that is Vladimir Putin but he is now trapped in a vortex of his own making, a fight to the finish in which either Ukraine will be destroyed or he will. Nor is it Joe Biden. For all the emotional appeals from

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Red Leg]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t8u85o

And these are the people the Russians are attempting to conquer.

 

[Ray B]

Xi isn't the only person. Our Fearful leader could stop it, he could have stopped it before it started- all he would have needed to do was nothing. Kept US a net exporter of oil/lng, the price would have stayed at $25/bbl and Putin wouldn't have been able to afford the military costs. US returning to net exporter and reducing the price would provide significant incentive to curtail the military conquest.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t8u85o

And these are the people the Russians are attempting to conquer.

From Ukraine with love.............

 

[spike.t]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t8u85o

And these are the people the Russians are attempting to conquer.

Brilliant

 

[Wheels]

View attachment 456063

 

[Red Leg]

SITREP March 7, 2002

As we start a new week of war in Ukraine, it may be interesting to look at what outcomes the conflict has already produced

At the geostrategic level, some remarkable outcomes have been produced so far:

• resurrection of NATO from its “cerebral death”;
• interest of Sweden and Finland in joining NATO;
• reversal of German policy on weapons sales to belligerents;
• doubling of German defense budget to $112.7 billion/year and 2%+ of GDP;
• re-engagement of Turkey in NATO community and distantiation from Russia;
• emergence of EU as a foreign politic player;
• strengthening of the desire for an autonomous European Defense in Western Europe;
• strengthening of the desire for the American/NATO defense umbrella in Eastern Europe;
• European Parliament resolution to work towards granting EU candidate status to Ukraine;
• unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia;
• uneasy positioning of China and India;
• failure of Russia to decapitate the Ukrainian government by a rapid action;
• failure of Russia to receive a "liberators welcome" in Ukraine;
• failure of Russia to dominate decisively the battlefield;
• massive victory of Ukraine, so far, in the communication war;
• massive loss of credibility of Vladimir Putin on the international scene;

At the military level, some puzzling outcomes have emerged:

• incomprehensible Russian non-engagement in force of its air power in Ukraine;
• incomprehensible failure of Russia to secure complete air dominance rather than partial air superiority;
• incomprehensible Russian non-engagement of its modern armor in mass (T90MS) and reliance on less protected armor (T-72B3 and T-72B3M);
• repeated failure of S300 air defense system to intercept basic drones (Turkish Bayraktar TB2);
• failure of S400 air defense system to intercept conventional ballistic missiles fired at Russian Millerovo Airbase;
• lack of Russian air force guided munitions resulting in gen 4.5 aircrafts using WWII technology free-fall bomb, hence necessity for low level bombing and vulnerability to MANPAD (man-portable air-defense systems (e.g. stinger), inaccurate delivery, and collateral damages;
• incapability of Russian logistics to support offensive action further than 90 miles from its railhead depots;
• incompetence of conscript soldiery and, apparently, many junior officers;
• out-of-proportion effectiveness of basic drone technology (e.g. ~$1 million Turkish Bayraktar TB2 flying at 137 mph and carrying 330 lbs. total payload);
• unexpected effectiveness of the Ukraine military defense;
• high Ukrainian morale at individual level among volunteers;
• low Russian morale at individual level among conscripts;

Things to watch for this week at the geopolitical level:

• Do the negotiations start to produce progress?
• Do the EU/US take the risk of providing offensive equipment to Ukraine (e.g. Polish Mig-29 aircrafts)?
• How does Russia react if EU/US take the risk of providing offensive equipment to Ukraine?

Things to watch for this week at the theater level:

• Do the Russian & Belarus forces attempt to shut down the influx of military equipment from the West by running an operation along the Polish border, starting from the Western end of Belarus and driving south?
• Do the Russians initiate the battle of Kyiv?
• Do the Russians continue to progress South and East?
• Do the Russians link Crimea to Russia along the Sea of Azov coastline through Mariupol?
• Do the Russians escalate the war by starting to use massive and indiscriminate artillery fire on cities?

Unlikely developments this week:

• Entry of NATO in the military conflict at theater or strategic level;
• Attack of a NATO country by Russia;
• Escalation of the conflict at the nuclear level;

Possible outcome this week:

One of the possible outcomes that may emerge this week is an answer to the central question whether Russia's so far limited commitment of its forces, and non-engagement in a battle for Kyiv was caused by:

• a political choice to preserve as long as possible the city (cradle of Eastern-Slavic-Russian civilization) from destruction while ramping up by progressive soviet-style, brutal force and naked aggression coercive diplomacy toward a negotiated settlement; or
• a military incapability (incompetent projection of force and insufficient logistics).

Potential resolution scenario:

A potential resolution scenario is a negotiated settlement based on:

• Ukraine/EU/US/NATO/the West have already accepted - even if not in public statements for internal politics consumption - the foreign politic inevitability of Crimea being Russian due to its 90%+ Russophone population and - most importantly - Sevastopol;
• EU/US/NATO/the West have long accepted that the entry of Ukraine (we can add Georgia and Belarus) into NATO is not a realistic prospect at this stage, and that even if the US accepted it, France and Germany would veto it, as they already did in 2008;
• the Donbass is likely more a liability to Ukraine/EU/US/NATO/the West than an asset, and ending the ethnic disintegration cancer in Ukraine is well worth the cost of letting it re-attach itself to Russia;

The settlement could include:

• Immediate cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of Russian forces;
• International recognition that Crimea belongs to Russia;
• Neutralization/Finlandization of Ukraine and non-entry in NATO;
• Independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic on the Kosovo model;
• Potentially: entry of Ukraine in the European Union;
• Potentially: Russian reparations to Ukraine.

This essentially would meet the "security demands" made by Putin prior to initiating the war (hence it raises the psychological issue of rewarding aggression), but from a pragmatic foreign politic perspective (Realpolitik) the Crimean and NATO membership have never really been in play; and exchanging the Donbas for an entry in the EU would be a win for Ukraine because the Donbas coal-based economy is not free-market competitive, and consumes more State subsidies than it produces revenues, even thought it produces 20% of GDP, not to mention the invaluable closure on ethnic divisions and 8 years of war.

My sense is that the Russian attack is culminating across the battlespace. With each passing day, the inertia will grow. They run the risk of consuming their logistics as fast as they can be pushed to the line of contact. From their current locations, they can inflict enormous damage on their primary objectives, but that is very different from seizing them. They have only to look at their own history to see the eventual folly of such a campaign - Leningrad comes to mind. They still hold the initiative, but I am beginning to wonder for how long.

Ukraine will now never agree to neutralization. Ukraine would see this as granting Russia victory, and the current government will never survive such a capitulation. This has become a war of self determination and Ukraine is on the cusp of forcing Russian forces onto the defensive. I think they could agree to some sort of third party mediation with respect to Donetsk and Lushank and reluctantly concur with an international recognition solution of Crimea.

Putin's military machine is being exposed to the world for what it and its leadership really is.

My biggest fear is that the Biden administration's reactive weak handling of this crisis (we are going to buy additional oil from Iran and Venezuela!) and fear that Russia will walk out of the Iran nuclear negotiations will undermine NATO and DOD's effort to supply Ukraine. The far right in this country also undermines that effort, believing this isn't a US concern.

Just today Secretary Blinken made the statement that any decision by Poland to supply Mig 29's to Ukraine would be a "sovereign decision by Poland." I assume that was an attempt to defuse an appearance of NATO/US direct involvement, but it could also be seen as greenlighting a Russian retaliation against Poland that wouldn't trigger Article 5. One of the most potentially irresponsible statements I have ever heard (since Biden's press conference several weeks ago expressing understanding of a "minor" Russian incursion).

 

[Red Leg]

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This is the most remarkable thing I have yet read since this has begun. I have no idea if it is remotely accurate. The translation is provided by Igor Shusko who is a race car driver. He gives no indication how he came into possession of a document written by a FSB analyst in Russia.

It tracks closely with conclusions many of us have been reaching, and is also rather frightening as well.

'Total Failure'? Russian Intelligence Official Allegedly Warns of Disaster in Ukraine

Failing.

townhall.com

Just saw the Times of London is running with this as well.

 

[One Day...]

Got sent this ....

Good analysis
Xi is the only leader who can stop the war in Ukraine

Xi is the only leader who can stop the war in Ukraine

Only one person in the world has the power to halt the bloodshed in Ukraine. You might think that is Vladimir Putin but he is now trapped in a vortex of his own making, a fight to the finish in which either Ukraine will be destroyed or he will. Nor is it Joe Biden. For all the emotional appeals from

www.thetimes.co.uk

I agree that Xi could, but I am not sure whether it is in his interest to so so.

I understand the point made that the Ukraine war will strengthen the West (it has already resurrected NATO which was struggling to keep a purpose), and refresh self determination principles, but I would add two thoughts:

1) I would think that China is not military ready just quite yet to flex her new military muscles against Taiwan. They need to complete their "blue water" Navy buildup first, including their Type 003 aircraft carrier with catapult capability so that they can launch fully fueled and fully armed heavy air superiority fighters and anti-fleet fighter-bombers. This will take another 3 years. They also need to deploy larger numbers of gen 4.5 and 5 land-based aircrafts. China has been progressing by technological leaps and bounds in their armament race, but - so far - industrial scale production has not caught up. By the time they are ready, and at the speed our modern world is going, the Ukraine thing is likely to be an old and nearly forgotten story.

2) I would also think that the weaker Russia becomes, the better for China. One should not forget that China has always had some vague territorial claims since the Amur Annexation of the southeast corner of Siberia by the Russian Empire in 1858–1860 from the Qing dynasty of China, and that there have been boundary issues between China and Russia, going through the almost-war of 1969; the 1991 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement; the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship that states that the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation have no territorial claims; the 2008 Sino-Soviet Border Line Agreement.
The hard cold reality is that the great East Siberian oil basin (10 billion barrels) may be tempting to a China that only has 25 billion barrels... Not to mention gold, diamonds, and more common minerals, etc. It may sound far fetched today, but who knows in 10 years or 20 years... Could a disintegrating Russia after a catastrophic internal politics end to a protracted Ukraine crisis enter in the Chinese calculus...

So, Xi likely could, but would he?

 

[One Day...]

And these are the people the Russians are attempting to conquer.

You mean liberate, right?

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

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This is the most remarkable thing I have yet read since this has begun. I have no idea if it is remotely accurate. The translation is provided by Igor Shusko who is a race car driver. He gives no indication how he came into possession of a document written by a FSB analyst in Russia.

It tracks closely with conclusions many of us have been reaching, and is also rather frightening as well.

'Total Failure'? Russian Intelligence Official Allegedly Warns of Disaster in Ukraine

Failing.

townhall.com

Just saw the Times of London is running with this as well.

It seems hard to imagine the whole world knew war was coming to Ukraine from Russia and the FSB didn’t. This is a scary read. I take some solace at this:


“To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.”

 

[One Day...]

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This is the most remarkable thing I have yet read since this has begun. I have no idea if it is remotely accurate. The translation is provided by Igor Shusko who is a race car driver. He gives no indication how he came into possession of a document written by a FSB analyst in Russia.

It tracks closely with conclusions many of us have been reaching, and is also rather frightening as well.

'Total Failure'? Russian Intelligence Official Allegedly Warns of Disaster in Ukraine

Failing.

townhall.com

Just saw the Times of London is running with this as well.

So............................

I have read the piece from first to last word, and I have an uneasy feeling.

The purported "current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst" has a taste of the "memos to self" conveniently produced by former FBI top brass, just at the right moment, with just the right content, to build-up the accusations in the Russian Hoax / Trump impeachment affair.

I DO NOT KNOW, but it seems too neat, too complete, too perfect. Flashing through my mind while reading were: to whom is this guy writing this 4 page letter? Woah! how prescient this guy is! He checks all the boxes, one by one, neatly, methodically, he pushes all the right buttons, in the correct sequence, all the way to 'but no worries there will not be nuclear war', he knows all the questions that needs to be answered, and he plugs in just the right touch of extraneous stuff to make it look not too close to the script...

Also, all that part about 'we are not even sure the red buttons work'. Oooops, one touch too much. THAT, I do not believe...

Oh by the way, US intelligence knew but FSB did not? Hmmm... Maybe this guy is really low on the totem pole...

If I were a brass at the No Such Agency or similar 3-letter agency, my annotations would be:
"Hmmm... How convenient... How perfect... Just what the world wants to hear... Information source? Information channel? Information corroboration? Information correlation? Initial evaluation: potential disinformation, do not disseminate at this stage."

As you say Red Leg, this is the most remarkable thing we have yet read since this has begun; maybe just a little too remarkable...

And yes, it tracks closely with conclusions many of us have been reaching; maybe just a little too closely...

 

[CoElkHunter]

I think that's the same demands they had before the war.

Don't forget Putin's demands on NATO BEFORE the invasion, i.e. remove all troops and weapons from former Eastern USSR countries so he can eventually invade THEM to create his "new" USSR. Putin's claim that NATO is a "threat" to the security of Russia is a "smoke and mirrors" tactic to again fool the West from his real goal.

 

[Red Leg]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t8yehx

For those interested in how modern anti-armor ambushes are accomplished, these Ukrainian soldiers are using a Ukrainian produced Stugna P anti-tank missile system to engage a Russian unit on a road. The missile has a range of 4,000 meters (2+ miles or about twice that of the Javelin and similar to the TOW) but has to be flown to the target by the operator who paints the target with a laser (what the gunner is doing with the screen). In this case, a small unit takes roughly two minutes to attempt to fire three missiles and score two hits which destroy an armored vehicle and supply vehicle. They then fade away to do it again somewhere else. This is going on all along the line of contact and has to be hugely demoralizing to the Russians.

 

[Wheels]

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This is the most remarkable thing I have yet read since this has begun. I have no idea if it is remotely accurate. The translation is provided by Igor Shusko who is a race car driver. He gives no indication how he came into possession of a document written by a FSB analyst in Russia.

It tracks closely with conclusions many of us have been reaching, and is also rather frightening as well.

A very interesting article. The longer this debacle goes on, the easier it is to believe this article.

Excerpts from the above translated article.

As bad as Iraq when invaded. How do you loose contact with a division.

"There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!) "

Sounds like time for everyone in Russia to start planting a garden.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. "

Not good.

"Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West). "

"Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine."

#2 below. A bit of good news. Hard to believe until you see how Russia has performed the past couple weeks.

"To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. "

Red Leg, I am not looking for a response. Just noting some of the more extraordinary comments from the article you cited.

 

[Wheels]

I agree that Xi could, but I am not sure whether it is in his interest to so so.

I understand the point made that the Ukraine war will strengthen the West (it has already resurrected NATO which was struggling to keep a purpose), and refresh self determination principles, but I would add two thoughts:

1) I would think that China is not military ready just quite yet to flex her new military muscles against Taiwan. They need to complete their "blue water" Navy buildup first, including their Type 003 aircraft carrier with catapult capability so that they can launch fully fueled and fully armed heavy air superiority fighters and anti-fleet fighter-bombers. This will take another 3 years. They also need to deploy larger numbers of gen 4.5 and 5 land-based aircrafts. China has been progressing by technological leaps and bounds in their armament race, but - so far - industrial scale production has not caught up. By the time they are ready, and at the speed our modern world is going, the Ukraine thing is likely to be an old and nearly forgotten story.

2) I would also think that the weaker Russia becomes, the better for China. One should not forget that China has always had some vague territorial claims since the Amur Annexation of the southeast corner of Siberia by the Russian Empire in 1858–1860 from the Qing dynasty of China, and that there have been boundary issues between China and Russia, going through the almost-war of 1969; the 1991 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement; the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship that states that the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation have no territorial claims; the 2008 Sino-Soviet Border Line Agreement.
The hard cold reality is that the great East Siberian oil basin (10 billion barrels) may be tempting to a China that only has 25 billion barrels... Not to mention gold, diamonds, and more common minerals, etc. It may sound far fetched today, but who knows in 10 years or 20 years... Could a disintegrating Russia after a catastrophic internal politics end to a protracted Ukraine crisis enter in the Chinese calculus...

So, Xi likely could, but would he?

Other than nuclear weapons, Russia may be an easier target than Taiwan.

Russia may have just made their bed with a crocodile.

 

[Ray B]

@Red Leg - There's the fellow operating the computer- Does he have line of sight to aim the laser the tank, or is there a forward observer with a laser that has internet connection to the computer?

 

[Red Leg]

@Red Leg - There's the fellow operating the computer- Does he have line of sight to aim the laser the tank, or is there a forward observer with a laser that has internet connection to the computer?

No, the camera/sight/laser is on the weapon. He could also fire and "fly" the missile by looking through the actual sight. However, this mode uses a USB cable that connects the targeting screen to the sight. The screen then is exactly like looking through the actual sight. That cable is likely a 100 feet long. Therefore, the weapon is placed where it can cover the road, but the gunner is some distance way and protected. He simply moves the toggle under his right index finger to move the laser to the target. Whatever he can see through the sight he can hit with a missile without shifting the launcher. With each shot one man quickly moves forward and loads the next missile.