Politics

[Sabattiboy]

They have arms control to keep guns out of citizens hands, but now you can have a tank?

How long can it be until they get laws like that in New York City? There must be some surpluses M60 or even M48s laying around. I wonder how "stop and frisk" would work.

It is surprising biden hasn't called for disarming the US citizens using Ukraine as reasoning.
See? If Putin didn't have any guns he couldn't invade anybody.
P.S. I'd settle for a 1918 BAR.

 

[spike.t]

30 Putin helicopters blown to smithereens

UKRAINIAN forces claim to have blown 30 Russian helicopters to smithereens at Kherson airfield in an overnight "direct action raid" shaming Vladimir Putin's war ambitions in the process.

www.express.co.uk

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Air strike ? Artillery? what destroyed the Russian artillery unit?

Not really my area of expertise and I think @Red Leg provided the correct answer.

I would have guessed that one or perhaps two well trained Ukrainian snipers armed with the lethal 375 Ruger and Hornady DGX bullets did most of the damage. That would be purely speculation on my part though.

 

[Jfet]

Not really my area of expertise and I think @Red Leg provided the correct answer.

I would have guessed that one or perhaps two well trained Ukrainian snipers armed with the lethal 375 Ruger and Hornady DGX bullets did most of the damage. That would be purely speculation on my part though.

No, more likely a Blaser R8 with a .375 H&H barrel.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Gentlemen...the million dollar question is this:

Will the war spread into NATO territory..? Will Putin at some point consider arms help to Ukraine hostile enough to take military action against NATO states..? I think that will happen..sooner or later..

I agree that it is going to happen. For a few reasons:

Blinken is the weakest sec of state I can ever remember, I have never seen anyone project weakness the way he does.

Russia has entered a meat grinder situation, the losses they are taking is surprising, I keep waiting for Russia to just level Ukraine indiscriminately. It is coming pretty clear they dont have the resources to perform a long term ground battle.

Sanctions are going to take their toll on the Russian people, and at somepoint they are going to rise up. The fact 3000 protestors have been arrested already means their isnt the appetite for it in Russia and as conditions worsen the people will grow restless. The narrative will need to switch that this isnt about liberating Ukraine but an all out attack on Russia.

My biggest fear is that Putin will do a tactical nuclear strike on an Eastern European NATO country. How does the US/Euro respond?

In the same token, it seems the US is not taking the threat seriously, using Russia to help negotiate with Iran, meeting with Venezuela, buying Russian oil and keeping that part of the Russian economy open to SWIFT.

There is a lot more questions than there is answers.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Talks between Russia and Ukraine will begin at 1200 GMT on Monday, the Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA) was quoted as saying by Russian state television.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba are also due to meet at a forum in Turkey on Thursday, Ankara said. It would be the first top level meeting since Moscow launched its invasion on Feb. 24.

 

[CoElkHunter]

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Talks between Russia and Ukraine will begin at 1200 GMT on Monday, the Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA) was quoted as saying by Russian state television.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba are also due to meet at a forum in Turkey on Thursday, Ankara said. It would be the first top level meeting since Moscow launched its invasion on Feb. 24.

I believe Putin is "playing" Ukraine and the West with these "talks" towards a negotiated peace, just as he played the West prior to invading Ukraine. How many Western leaders did he tell face to face or via phone, "I have no intention of invading Ukraine". In my opinion, Putin is someone who can't be trusted regarding anything and one knows when he's lying because he's talking. We and the rest of the FREE Nations of the World want to believe him, because we want peace and prosperity. Putin desires to be the Emperor of a reconstituted USSR at any cost. He will ultimately lose his quest, but MANY in his path of mayhem will suffer until then.

 

[Pondoro]

I agree that it is going to happen. For a few reasons:

Blinken is the weakest sec of state I can ever remember, I have never seen anyone project weakness the way he does.

Russia has entered a meat grinder situation, the losses they are taking is surprising, I keep waiting for Russia to just level Ukraine indiscriminately. It is coming pretty clear they dont have the resources to perform a long term ground battle.

Sanctions are going to take their toll on the Russian people, and at somepoint they are going to rise up. The fact 3000 protestors have been arrested already means their isnt the appetite for it in Russia and as conditions worsen the people will grow restless. The narrative will need to switch that this isnt about liberating Ukraine but an all out attack on Russia.

My biggest fear is that Putin will do a tactical nuclear strike on an Eastern European NATO country. How does the US/Euro respond?

In the same token, it seems the US is not taking the threat seriously, using Russia to help negotiate with Iran, meeting with Venezuela, buying Russian oil and keeping that part of the Russian economy open to SWIFT.

There is a lot more questions than there is answers.

I dont think Putin will go nuclear..unless attacked by NATO and forced back over the russian border..

But this looks more and more like the 1930´s.... First Georgia in 2008, 20% of Georgian territory is occupied by Russia...then Crimea/Donetsk/Lugansk in 2014. If he takes control of Ukraine then probably Moldova and Georgia....and what then..? Putin has to be stopped sooner or later..

 

[SaintPanzer]

No, more likely a Blaser R8 with a .375 H&H barrel.

I think you are both incorrect. Clearly, that is the damage one can expect from a .243 Winchester.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[Rob404]

I have on good indisputable authority that the damage was done with a 35 Whelen

 

[Waldo2382]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

interesting link for those that are trying to keep count of losses of equipment. There is a disclaimer that it is hard to tell everything that is lost, captured. Just stuff that is verified so far.

 

[wesheltonj]

View attachment 456057

I think that's the same demands they had before the war.

 

[Rob404]

 

[John Wasmuth]

 

[Alistair]

I have on good indisputable authority that the damage was done with a 35 Whelen

Ah, indirect fire then!

 

[rdog]

Not really my area of expertise and I think @Red Leg provided the correct answer.

I would have guessed that one or perhaps two well trained Ukrainian snipers armed with the lethal 375 Ruger and Hornady DGX bullets did most of the damage. That would be purely speculation on my part though.

Yes Red leg did supply the answer, but Bob 35 Whelen thinks it was the result of a number of hits by a 25/06. With the world turning to shit we must keep our sense of humor.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

I dont think Putin will go nuclear..unless attacked by NATO and forced back over the russian border..

But this looks more and more like the 1930´s.... First Georgia in 2008, 20% of Georgian territory is occupied by Russia...then Crimea/Donetsk/Lugansk in 2014. If he takes control of Ukraine then probably Moldova and Georgia....and what then..? Putin has to be stopped sooner or later..

Just saw on the news some comments by retired USAF Gen Breedlove, former Nato & Supreme Allied Europe Commander. He mentioned the menacing Russian fleet on the Black Sea and how Moldova, specifically the Transnistria region, could be vulnerable.

 

[Ray B]

USAF Gen Breedlove,

Of course, it could have been Dr Strangelove and his military advisor Big Gen Jack D Ripper.

 

[One Day...]

SITREP March 7, 2002

As we start a new week of war in Ukraine, it may be interesting to look at what outcomes the conflict has already produced

At the geostrategic level, some remarkable outcomes have been produced so far:

• resurrection of NATO from its “cerebral death”;
• interest of Sweden and Finland in joining NATO;
• reversal of German policy on weapons sales to belligerents;
• doubling of German defense budget to $112.7 billion/year and 2%+ of GDP;
• re-engagement of Turkey in NATO community and distantiation from Russia;
• emergence of EU as a foreign politic player;
• strengthening of the desire for an autonomous European Defense in Western Europe;
• strengthening of the desire for the American/NATO defense umbrella in Eastern Europe;
• European Parliament resolution to work towards granting EU candidate status to Ukraine;
• unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia;
• uneasy positioning of China and India;
• failure of Russia to decapitate the Ukrainian government by a rapid action;
• failure of Russia to receive a "liberators welcome" in Ukraine;
• failure of Russia to dominate decisively the battlefield;
• massive victory of Ukraine, so far, in the communication war;
• massive loss of credibility of Vladimir Putin on the international scene;

At the military level, some puzzling outcomes have emerged:

• incomprehensible Russian non-engagement in force of its air power in Ukraine;
• incomprehensible failure of Russia to secure complete air dominance rather than partial air superiority;
• incomprehensible Russian non-engagement of its modern armor in mass (T90MS) and reliance on less protected armor (T-72B3 and T-72B3M);
• repeated failure of S300 air defense system to intercept basic drones (Turkish Bayraktar TB2);
• failure of S400 air defense system to intercept conventional ballistic missiles fired at Russian Millerovo Airbase;
• lack of Russian air force guided munitions resulting in gen 4.5 aircrafts using WWII technology free-fall bomb, hence necessity for low level bombing and vulnerability to MANPAD (man-portable air-defense systems (e.g. stinger), inaccurate delivery, and collateral damages;
• incapability of Russian logistics to support offensive action further than 90 miles from its railhead depots;
• incompetence of conscript soldiery and, apparently, many junior officers;
• out-of-proportion effectiveness of basic drone technology (e.g. ~$1 million Turkish Bayraktar TB2 flying at 137 mph and carrying 330 lbs. total payload);
• unexpected effectiveness of the Ukraine military defense;
• high Ukrainian morale at individual level among volunteers;
• low Russian morale at individual level among conscripts;

Things to watch for this week at the geopolitical level:

• Do the negotiations start to produce progress?
• Do the EU/US take the risk of providing offensive equipment to Ukraine (e.g. Polish Mig-29 aircrafts)?
• How does Russia react if EU/US take the risk of providing offensive equipment to Ukraine?

Things to watch for this week at the theater level:

• Do the Russian & Belarus forces attempt to shut down the influx of military equipment from the West by running an operation along the Polish border, starting from the Western end of Belarus and driving south?
• Do the Russians initiate the battle of Kyiv?
• Do the Russians continue to progress South and East?
• Do the Russians link Crimea to Russia along the Sea of Azov coastline through Mariupol?
• Do the Russians escalate the war by starting to use massive and indiscriminate artillery fire on cities?

Unlikely developments this week:

• Entry of NATO in the military conflict at theater or strategic level;
• Attack of a NATO country by Russia;
• Escalation of the conflict at the nuclear level;

Possible outcome this week:

One of the possible outcomes that may emerge this week is an answer to the central question whether Russia's so far limited commitment of its forces, and non-engagement in a battle for Kyiv was caused by:

• a political choice to preserve as long as possible the city (cradle of Eastern-Slavic-Russian civilization) from destruction while ramping up by progressive soviet-style, brutal force and naked aggression coercive diplomacy toward a negotiated settlement; or
• a military incapability (incompetent projection of force and insufficient logistics).

Potential resolution scenario:

A potential resolution scenario is a negotiated settlement based on:

• Ukraine/EU/US/NATO/the West have already accepted - even if not in public statements for internal politics consumption - the foreign politic inevitability of Crimea being Russian due to its 90%+ Russophone population and - most importantly - Sevastopol;
• EU/US/NATO/the West have long accepted that the entry of Ukraine (we can add Georgia and Belarus) into NATO is not a realistic prospect at this stage, and that even if the US accepted it, France and Germany would veto it, as they already did in 2008;
• the Donbass is likely more a liability to Ukraine/EU/US/NATO/the West than an asset, and ending the ethnic disintegration cancer in Ukraine is well worth the cost of letting it re-attach itself to Russia;

The settlement could include:

• Immediate cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of Russian forces;
• International recognition that Crimea belongs to Russia;
• Neutralization/Finlandization of Ukraine and non-entry in NATO;
• Independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic on the Kosovo model;
• Potentially: entry of Ukraine in the European Union;
• Potentially: Russian reparations to Ukraine.

This essentially would meet the "security demands" made by Putin prior to initiating the war (hence it raises the psychological issue of rewarding aggression), but from a pragmatic foreign politic perspective (Realpolitik) the Crimean and NATO membership have never really been in play; and exchanging the Donbas for an entry in the EU would be a win for Ukraine because the Donbas coal-based economy is not free-market competitive, and consumes more State subsidies than it produces revenues, even thought it produces 20% of GDP, not to mention the invaluable closure on ethnic divisions and 8 years of war.