Politics

[Wheels]

 

[One Day...]

Ah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (dismayed exclamation points)...
Zelenskyy makes his first communication mistake...
Trashing the West over declining his proposed no-fly zone, and blaming every further liter of Ukrainian blood on every further liter of oil received from Russia...
This is not helpful...
He has so far held the high ground in the communication with the West, he needs to stay on it...
Beside, biting the hand that feeds you has never been a very brilliant strategy...
I really hope he does not go down that path, he needs all the West goodwill he can get....

Furious Zelensky tears into "weak" NATO for ruling out "no-fly" zone over Ukraine

"All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you."

www.axios.com

 

[Scott CWO]

Encr

I'm on the side of whatever country gives me the freedoms and life that I desire, same as everyone else. That's the West.

But that's irrelevant. This is realpolitik. It's not about right or wrong, it's about reality, what's possible and what is not. Truth is also dependent on the observer, and for many people in these countries, they're in the right, especially if they're in a position of power in the current system (and therefore 'matter'). From a purely selfish, personal standpoint, why on earth would Putin work to change the system that's put him in almost undisputed power and made him a billionaire?

Horrid though it sounds, right and wrong is decided after the fact, and only by the victors.

Yes, militarily, NATO is defensive. But politically and economically, the Western world is encroaching on Russia, just the same as China is encroaching on the western world. Now this is probably to the benefit of the Russian people (just as in the past, Chinese enroachment has benefited US people in their quality of life and US corporations in their profit margins). In both cases, the 'aggessor' (a loaded, but not inaccurate term) offers a mutually beneficial exchange, one so good that the recipient can't refuse. Cheap goods, cost reduction, military support, a seat at the table. All have worked at one point or the other in Europe, in Asia and in America.

But they help the country (at least in the short term), they don't necessarily help Putin. And Putin is not beholden to the Russian people. He's beholden to a small group of key backers upon who his power rests. Military leaders, oligarchs, senior religious or community leaders, senior governmental officials, police forces. It doesn't help them either. That's why stuff like the Marshall plan generally only works in relatively democratic societies, and not in places like Africa. Because it benefits the country as a whole, and in countries where political survival depends on popular support, benefitting the country benefits the leader. In autocratic systems, that's not always the case.

Economic and political encroachments occur even between countries without common borders. That’s life. They should get over it. The USSR and now Russians have been and will be up against those encroachments forever and for decades because their form of government sucks for everyone but the dictators and their groupies. That’s not our fault. They should change to a more free system but then they lose control so they rarely change. That’s what this is all about - control. They then complain about defensive weapons near their borders as a smoke screen when the real reason they don’t want democratic neighbors is because it makes their pathetic economies and quality of life look pale in comparison. They can’t freely admit that to their citizens so they try to deceive everyone (even some idiots in the West) into thinking their complaints are about offensive weapons near their borders when anybody with a brain knows the weapons are defensive. Again, we don’t want their homeland. Perhaps the Russian leaders know that down deep but they want their people to think we do want their homeland. Like I said, it’s all a smoke screen to hide the truth - that their system sucks and is all about stealing while their citizens are asleep. Putin is suddenly one of the richest men in the world. He makes the Biden family’s lining of pockets look like child’s play.

 

[Scott CWO]

W

Ah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (dismayed exclamation points)...
Zelenskyy makes his first communication mistake...
Trashing the West over declining his proposed no-fly zone, and blaming every further liter of Ukrainian blood on every further liter of oil received from Russia...
This is not helpful...
He has so far held the high ground in the communication with the West, he needs to stay on it...
Beside, biting the hand that feeds you has never been a very brilliant strategy...
I really hope he does not go down that path, he needs all the West goodwill he can get....

View attachment 455654

Furious Zelensky tears into "weak" NATO for ruling out "no-fly" zone over Ukraine

"All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you."

www.axios.com

What do you expect? He’s literally in a fight for his life. I’m not surprised at all.

 

[Sabattiboy]

I've read hours of responses in this thread and learned things never taught in school or college history. In the end I learned it is okay for Putin to do what he is doing while others say it is not. I learned some say it is partially okay etc. None of these comments with historical info or personal thoughts seem to change what is happening in Ukraine.
So, after some deliberation I discovered the perfect solution. Given that Putin wants to restore Russia's Motherland that means at some point he has to retake Alaska. When he does, america has to decide if they are going to give him NORAD when we withdraw. I'm sure he will promise to properly maintain it. Just be sure to negotiate hunting rights with the proper permits.

 

[Woodcarver]

Ah !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (dismayed exclamation points)...
Zelenskyy makes his first communication mistake...
Trashing the West over declining his proposed no-fly zone, and blaming every further liter of Ukrainian blood on every further liter of oil received from Russia...
This is not helpful...
He has so far held the high ground in the communication with the West, he needs to stay on it...
Beside, biting the hand that feeds you has never been a very brilliant strategy...
I really hope he does not go down that path, he needs all the West goodwill he can get....

View attachment 455654

Furious Zelensky tears into "weak" NATO for ruling out "no-fly" zone over Ukraine

"All the people who will die starting from this day will also die because of you."

www.axios.com

You can feel his frustration, even as (I think) he knows he's asking for a line to be crossed that he understands can't be yet. Has to be quite difficult for him.
I appreciate your insights on this. The world has definitely changed over the last couple years; this invasion having the potential for a more horrendous change.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

With respect, I dont think this is a very nuanced view of why Russia acts as it does.

On the one hand, no, America has no ambitions to invade and occupy eastern Europe. That's absolutely true. But it's also not the point.

If you allow a slight diversion, let's consider America's relationship with China. No one in the US is genuinely fearful that China wants to invade or occupy the America's. That'd be laughable. But you are still justifiably concerned with China. Why?

Because China isn't trying to invade, they're conducting economic warfare to attempt to bring the US into their sphere on influence. Theyre intruding on what America considers to be 'their' turf. Negotiations with Africa, with Europe, a skewed balance of trade with America, military investments in territories such as the pacific and South China sea which America considers to be their stomping ground.

So how is this relevant to Russia? Well, it's exactly the same situation. America is not looking to invade Russia, but they are certainly working (through Nato) to exert more influence, economic, military and political into what Russia considers to be their sphere of influence - eastern Europe. The long term ideal for Americ and nato would be to pull Russia into Europe completely. To have them as an ally, a friend, a partner, just as they are with Germany. But that's a big problem for Russia, because whilst it would help them, such actions come with strings attached.

Closer links with America, especially for a poor, second rate power tends to result in dependence. See Britain, France, Germany, Japan or South Korea even. They are friends and allies of America sure, but in other respects they can almost be considered client states. Dependent on America for their defense, much of their economy, and with a high degree of cultural dilution and political alignment on things like foreign policy.

Putin fears this. So he works to remain independent. Economic links with China. Economic exchange outside of SWIFT. Works to retain relevance and power over what have traditionally been states who are dependent on Russia such as the Ukraine, Poland, Montenegro etc.

He's not doing this to protect from a traditional land invasion, not really. He's protecting against economic and cultural subordination to America through NATO.

This makes sense. He's a corrupt, autocratic leader. Closer ties with the western world would hurt his power and his bank balance. It'd also hurt his national pride.

Viewed through that lense, this action is just as logical as American support of South Korea, Japan and Australia against China. Maintainance of empire and international relevance against a foe. Not protection of the homeland.

At least, that's my take as a relatively independent observer.

Ukraine decided upon it's destiny itself, the weren't forced to. Ukraine requested NATO membership, not the other way around. Russia has attacked Ukraine, not the other way around. So Russia is clearly intent upon expansion to crush soverign will. It is just that simple.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

"If anyone interferes in my conquests, I will resort to nuclear weapons". No, he didn't say that but inferred that NOW with Ukraine. What prevents him from using that threat in the future? NATO? Maybe? He's issued veiled threats towards Sweden and Finland if they join NATO. I believed at the time that Georgia wasn't going to be his last incursion and I don't believe Ukraine will be now. Putin has become increasingly paranoid, agitated, and irrational over the last several months. Now, the world's financial sanctions have left him more isolated. I'm not sure what he's capable of doing anymore? Hopefully, NATO countries are a deterrent to his conquests in HIS mind? I wouldn't bet the farm on it though.

All depends upon the state of his mind. An awful indictment of the Russian system that the future of the entire globe could depend upon what is in this one man's head. Sort of makes a mockery of all the analysis I have read here.

 

[CoElkHunter]

All depends upon the state of his mind. An awful indictment of the Russian system that the future of the entire globe could depend upon what is in this one man's head. Sort of makes a mockery of all the analysis I have read here.

I just read tonight where the attack on a nuclear power plant is a war crime? Add one more to Putin’s resume. I’ve also read where the workers left at the plant after the Russians took it over, are reporting the mining with explosives of the plant by the Russian army. If true, it’s brilliant! Putin won’t have to threaten Europe with his nuclear arsenal. Why waste his nukes? He would now be able to hold Europe (World)) hostage to get whatever he wants by threatening to blow up the nuclear power plant, which is ten times larger than Chernobyl. Guess we and the world should have acted sooner (Georgia) AGAIN (WW2-almost)?

 

[Ray B]

He would now be able to hold Europe (World)) hostage to get whatever he wants by threatening to blow up the nuclear power plant, which is ten times larger than Chernobyl. Guess we and the world should have acted sooner (Georgia) AGAIN (WW2-almost)?

Since the dominant wind/jet stream pattern at that latitude is from the West to the East, The general flow of radiation would be into Russia- seems a little myopic to me.

 

[CoElkHunter]

Since the dominant wind/jet stream pattern at that latitude is from the West to the East, The general flow of radiation would be into Russia- seems a little myopic to me.

Maybe your right? I guess we’ll know probably sooner than later?

 

[VertigoBE]

So @Vashper , has Putin promised you a piece of ground in the Ukraine yet?

That’s uncalled for.

 

[VertigoBE]

Putin is definitely not the same man he was, and there is something behind this too, that we do not understand. The change in his face reminds me of French President Pompidou when he was receiving increasing doses of cortisone while dying of cancer. Could it be that Putin's sudden desperation, loss of control (re. public humiliation of his top intelligence and military brass), urgency to close the Ukraine issue, etc. be a result of his days being counted by illness and him knowing it?

I have been wondering that too… his face looked swollen and puffy, usually an indication of heavy medication.

 

[Vashper]

Another one from Hitler's playbook. He wanted to "re populate" invaded countries with "pure" German peoples.

Now it's called "Californication"

 

[Vashper]

So @Vashper , has Putin promised you a piece of ground in the Ukraine yet?

Gentlemen are supposed to envy silently.

 

[Ray B]

World leaders are supposed to work for the benefit of their people.

 

[CoElkHunter]

I am not surprised. We always agree a lot more (on the concepts) than we disagree (on technical aspects/details)

The thing is that even total Russian military victory would not achieve anything. I believe no-one expects that there is an ounce of realism in Russia occupying militarily an adversarial Ukraine long term. The ONLY solution is indeed a pragmatic (not ideal by any mean, but executable) negotiated settlement.

Would the bar be set too high asking for Russia to accept Ukraine entry in NATO? Is it needed? It seems that entry in the EU and military "Finlandization" would accomplish the same goal, but be more face-saving for Putin who has made a lot of hay out of the NATO issue.

Of course, the concern about helping Putin save face has nothing to do with being sympathetic to him, or his self-imposed plight, it is just cold-blooded Realpolitik calculus of the most direct and rapid path to the desired outcome...

The most derisively bitter part of it all, is that I was quite convinced that French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz were on a path to get US President Biden to agree to something like that, after all agreeing that under no circumstance would a single US/NATO (including French and German) soldier be deployed in Ukraine, just before Putin stupidly started hostilities.

Putin is definitely not the same man he was, and there is something behind this too, that we do not understand. The change in his face reminds me of French President Pompidou when he was receiving increasing doses of cortisone while dying of cancer. Could it be that Putin's sudden desperation, loss of control (re. public humiliation of his top intelligence and military brass), urgency to close the Ukraine issue, etc. be a result of his days being counted by illness and him knowing it?

Yes, something is definitely different with Putin’s looks, demeanor and obviously his irrational thinking over the past several months. I’ve read where his family had Covid, but he denied having it? He may have well had it and the Covid or medications used to treat it have/are affecting him? I know, it seems outlandish to mention that as a possible explanation for Putin’s “behavior”, but after my brother in law recovered from Covid last August, he’s been seemingly angry in general as noticed by myself and other family members. I haven’t heard of that as a side effect from having Covid, but I guess it’s possible? More likely, Putin is suffering from another medical condition and the meds are affecting his physical condition and thought process. Either way, he’s become more dangerous to the world.

 

[Pondoro]

2 things I am certain of in this conflict:

1. Putin will never hand back Crimea, due to the Sevastopol military base

2. Putin will never allow Ukraine NATO membership, EU membership perhaps but not NATO

 

[Vashper]

I don't understand this concern for Putin's health. Well, there will be Shoigu or Kadyrov instead of him - and what, will you like it more?

 

[CoElkHunter]

I don't understand this concern for Putin's health. Well, there will be Shoigu or Kadyrov instead of him - and what, will you like it more?

Personally, and probably at least the Western world, is only concerned about Putin’s health as far as what is causing his insanity with his recent decisions? You know, until around the early 2000s, I actually admired Putin. A strong leader who allowed some Capitalism and freedoms to flourish in a Communist country. But then, his “adventurism” in other countries led by brutal dictators turned me off. Something has drastically recently changed with his thought process though. It’s almost as if he doesn’t care anymore about what he is doing or how it affects the people of Russia or the world? A loss of any moral direction he might have had left? Complete insanity! I didn’t think Shoigu could ascend the throne because he is from/a Tula?