Politics

[Red Leg]

I wonder how many of you can watch this and hold to the same opinion as to the cause of the present situation.

Very professionally done. Bad things have occurred in the eastern area of Ukraine. The Ukrainian people, not the CIA, also ran Putin's puppet out of the country. There is a word called equivalency. RT is funded by the Russian Federation and one would expect nothing less but a professional - whether propaganda or not - documentary. I would suggest also going to "redit" - going to the search function and pulling up "combat footage." There you won't find measured narrative with a British accent, but current, real footage of what the Russian Army is doing to cities and urban environments within reach of its artillery, missiles, and occasional airstrikes.

An example.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AshamedZestyIcelandgull-mobile.mp4

It would be instructive to learn how many Russians have access to this material.

This is not equivalency. This is an effort by a former leader and competitor worthy of respect who has become a rogue dictator to attempt to subjugate a neighboring nation regardless of the risks to international peace, the damage to his own people, or how many non-combatants he has to kill.

I become more convinced daily that he has to be stopped now, whether by the international community, the Ukrainians, or the Russian people before we have to stop him later.

 

[jpr9954]

 

[Wheels]

 

[Alistair]

I disagree with this. If China thought they could be successful invading the US, they would do it tomorrow.

But they wouldn't be successful, and so long as the US is a nuclear power, they never will. That's the benefit of MAD, conventional conflict to a point where a peer or near-peer nation state is at risk of complete destruction simply isn't viable unless you're entirely willing to destroy the world. The Cold War taught us that, surely?

Maybe China would like that to not be the case, but again, Realpolitik.

What China can do if they continue to play their cards right, is to supplant the US as the leader of the world, limit the US's ability to exert international power and subjugate the US economically. That's (IMHO) their end goal here, not to occupy territory.

All the above is true of the US/NATO and Russia also, just on a smaller, regional scale. So it's a valid fear.

 

[One Day...]

I wonder how many of you can watch this and hold to the same opinion as to the cause of the present situation.

Well, while I have been quite alone on a limb suggesting that both sides of the Russia - EU/US/NATO disagreement over Ukraine need to be understood, I will observe here that I would not expect anything else from RT, which is essentially Russian state media.

This being said, I am not arguing that Ukrainians did not commit atrocities on Russian ethnic minorities, it ALWAYS happens in civil wars, but the sad reality is that atrocities have been committed by BOTH sides, which too, always happens in civil wars.

This is why a pragmatic point can be made about Crimea and Donbass falling under the Russian sphere, because the reality is that European ethnic conflicts since WW II generally do not seem to evolve peacefully, and shoehorning borderland minorities in countries controlled by opposing ethnic or cultural groups does not really seem to work.

The last example is Serbia, and it is worth noting that the West recognized Kosovo as a sovereign state, the same way Russia recently recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, triggering of course a great clamor of indignation from the West...

This is the great tragedy of moralizing attempts at foreign politic, it makes it so easy for adversaries to point out that we preach "do as we say, but not as we do"...

 

[Red Leg]

Well, while I have been quite alone on a limb suggesting that both sides of the Russia - EU/US/NATO disagreement over Ukraine need to be understood, I will observe here that I would not expect anything else from RT, which is essentially Russian state media.

This being said, I am not arguing that Ukrainians did not commit atrocities on Russian ethnic minorities, it ALWAYS happen in civil wars, but the sad reality is that atrocities have been committed by both sides, which too always happen in civil wars.

This is why a pragmatic point can be made about Crimea and Donbass falling under the Russian sphere, because the reality is that European ethnic conflicts since WW II generally do not seem to evolve peacefully, and shoehorning borderland minorities in countries controlled by opposing ethnic or cultural groups does not really seem to work.

The last example is Serbia, and it is worth noting that the West recognized Kosovo as a sovereign state, the same way Russia recently recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic...

On this we agree. Other than total Russian victory, which I believe is more unlikely with every passing hour, there must eventually be a negotiated settlement. Ukraine gives up Crimea and Dombass, and Russia agrees to Ukraine becoming part of the EU and NATO. The US and Russia can conclude a sidebar agreement on the positioning of theater weapons. Putin can claim victory, however it is perceived at home, and Ukraine removes a persistent thorn from its side.

Regrettably, this won't happen until Russia perceives continuing combat operations is not worth the cost.

 

[CoElkHunter]

On this we agree. Other than total Russian victory, which I believe is more unlikely with every passing hour, there must eventually be a negotiated settlement. Ukraine gives up Crimea and Dombass, and Russia agrees to Ukraine becoming part of the EU and NATO. The US and Russia can conclude a sidebar agreement on the positioning of theater weapons. Putin can claim victory, however it is perceived at home, and Ukraine removes a persistent thorn from its side.

Regrettably, this won't happen until Russia perceives continuing combat operations is not worth the cost.

Putin won't and Ukraine won't be the last conquest to restore the former USSR to its former "Glory" in Putin's increasingly irrational thinking. I believe he will come up with some hair brain reason to invade the Baltic states next.

 

[LivingTheDream]

But they wouldn't be successful, and so long as the US is a nuclear power, they never will. That's the benefit of MAD, conventional conflict to a point where a peer or near-peer nation state is at risk of complete destruction simply isn't viable unless you're entirely willing to destroy the world. The Cold War taught us that, surely

With the technology today it is MAD, but we don't know what will happen in 10 or 20 years. The Cold war taught us that all things need to be relatively equal. Dictators have no issue destroying the world as long as they are the conquers.

China's ambitions go beyond the US's and beyond just wanting to be an economic power.

 

[One Day...]

On this we agree. Other than total Russian victory, which I believe is more unlikely with every passing hour, there must eventually be a negotiated settlement. Ukraine gives up Crimea and Dombass, and Russia agrees to Ukraine becoming part of the EU and NATO. The US and Russia can conclude a sidebar agreement on the positioning of theater weapons. Putin can claim victory, however it is perceived at home, and Ukraine removes a persistent thorn from its side.

Regrettably, this won't happen until Russia perceives continuing combat operations is not worth the cost.

I am not surprised. We always agree a lot more (on the concepts) than we disagree (on technical aspects/details)

The thing is that even total Russian military victory would not achieve anything. I believe no-one expects that there is an ounce of realism in Russia occupying militarily an adversarial Ukraine long term. The ONLY solution is indeed a pragmatic (not ideal by any mean, but executable) negotiated settlement.

Would the bar be set too high asking for Russia to accept Ukraine entry in NATO? Is it needed? It seems that entry in the EU and military "Finlandization" would accomplish the same goal, but be more face-saving for Putin who has made a lot of hay out of the NATO issue.

Of course, the concern about helping Putin save face has nothing to do with being sympathetic to him, or his self-imposed plight, it is just cold-blooded Realpolitik calculus of the most direct and rapid path to the desired outcome...

The most derisively bitter part of it all, is that I was quite convinced that French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz were on a path to get US President Biden to agree to something like that, after all agreeing that under no circumstance would a single US/NATO (including French and German) soldier be deployed in Ukraine, just before Putin stupidly started hostilities.

Putin is definitely not the same man he was, and there is something behind this too, that we do not understand. The change in his face reminds me of French President Pompidou when he was receiving increasing doses of cortisone while dying of cancer. Could it be that Putin's sudden desperation, loss of control (re. public humiliation of his top intelligence and military brass), urgency to close the Ukraine issue, etc. be a result of his days being counted by illness and him knowing it?

 

[One Day...]

Putin won't and Ukraine won't be the last conquest to restore the former USSR to its former "Glory" in Putin's increasingly irrational thinking. I believe he will come up with some hair brain reason to invade the Baltic states next.

But these are NATO members and this is an all different ballgame, and I suspect that even Putin knows it...........................................

 

[Wheels]

And yes, there is a war going on now. Yes, shells are exploding in the cities of Ukraine. In the cities of Donbass, it has been going on for 8 years, and shells are bursting there right now - Ukrainian troops, trained by Western advisers, are firing chaotically at Donetsk and Horlivka. In these cities there are now only women, children and the elderly - all men in the armies of the republics, at the front.
These are facts, not opinions.

 

[John Wasmuth]

There’s still a lot of hard corps communists that would love to see the Soviet Union reborn. Make no mistake.

 

[Ray B]

I just heard an interesting comment- the reason Putin is killing/causing to emigrate civilians from Ukraine is that he intends to "repopulate" the country with Russian citizens, who would then support being annexed into Russia.

It does sound a little like the goals of the DemonRat party for the US with immigration.

 

[CJW]

I just heard an interesting comment- the reason Putin is killing/causing to emigrate civilians from Ukraine is that he intends to "repopulate" the country with Russian citizens, who would then support being annexed into Russia.

It does sound a little like the goals of the DemonRat party for the US with immigration.

Old Russian trick if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Wheels]

 

[CoElkHunter]

But these are NATO members and this is an all different ballgame, and I suspect that even Putin knows it...........................................

"If anyone interferes in my conquests, I will resort to nuclear weapons". No, he didn't say that but inferred that NOW with Ukraine. What prevents him from using that threat in the future? NATO? Maybe? He's issued veiled threats towards Sweden and Finland if they join NATO. I believed at the time that Georgia wasn't going to be his last incursion and I don't believe Ukraine will be now. Putin has become increasingly paranoid, agitated, and irrational over the last several months. Now, the world's financial sanctions have left him more isolated. I'm not sure what he's capable of doing anymore? Hopefully, NATO countries are a deterrent to his conquests in HIS mind? I wouldn't bet the farm on it though.

 

[CoElkHunter]

Old Russian trick if I'm not mistaken.

Another one from Hitler's playbook. He wanted to "re populate" invaded countries with "pure" German peoples.

 

[PARA45]

 

[Ray B]

So @Vashper , has Putin promised you a piece of ground in the Ukraine yet?

 

[Wheels]