Thank you for your attentive read
In fact, I generally agree with what you wrote, but we are not processing information at the same level. Your attention is on technical/tactical aspects, my attention is on strategic concepts. These are not mutually exclusive
Re. Monroe Doctrine: you are correct in what you point out, but the point I am making is not to compare 1823 America with 2022 Russia, it is to illustrate the concept that great powers all have their (hemi)sphere of influence construct, and enforce it.
Re. Cuba: indeed this is not about mere bases and troops, this is about the hardware deployed. In Cuba these were the first generation of nuclear ballistic missiles, what we would call today medium range missiles. In NATO in Eastern Europe these are nuclear-capable Tomahawk, plus anti ICBM capabilities. To summarize, in both cases: strategic weapons. This is the parallel I make.
Re. Canada and Mexico hosting Chinese bases: as I said, tis was an "hypothetical". What this means is that the narrative of the presumed threat is not what should be analyzed, it is only designed to create a potential scenario. The point of interest there is, regardless of the scenario narrative, how would the US react? I can change the scenario if you want and imagine another hypothetical: Russia returns to Cuba with mid range hypersonic nuclear-capable vectors. The question remains the same: how does the US react?
Re. Freedom of the People to Choose, Right to Self Determination, Democracy principles etc. : of course these principles are embodied in the United Nation, but the United Nation is itself a creation of the US and enshrines the same Western/Occidental/Christian principles. For the strategic purpose of this discussion, US principles, UN principles, EU principles are mostly one and the same set.
Re. Poland: of course the US did not go to war over Poland, but the western democracies did, very much in the name of the same principles now embodied in NATO. Here again, you are technically accurate, but this does not really modify the strategic concept I was discussing.
Re. Georgia: details set aside, it was one of the two countries designated in the Bucharest 2008 NATO Summit Membership Action Plan (MAP). The point I make is that Georgia, as well as Ukraine (or Belarus, if it came to that) are buffers that Russia has made clear it considers vital for its security and is ready to go to war over. My point was that Russia went to war over Georgia, just as they are doing over Ukraine.
Re. NATO bases in Belarus: you may have read too fast, I did not say there are NATO bases in Belarus, I said NATO would likely want to have bases in Belarus and Ukraine (we can add Georgia) if these countries were integrated into NATO.
Re. war in Ukraine: I did not say that this was not a war, and I am well aware of Clausewitz's writings. What I was saying is that my personal interpretation of the ground war in Ukraine is not that Ukrainians are stopping or slowing the Russians, it is that the Russians were not committed to a full blown, all-out armored thrust. It is my assertion that had the Russian army been tasked to overwhelm Eastern Ukraine and take Kiev in "blitzkrieg" mode, they would have done it a matter of 2 or 3 days (Kiev is only ~150 kilometers/~90 miles from the Belarus border...) and there is not much that the Ukrainian army could have done to stop them, so is the disproportion of forces, with or without a few hundred Javelin etc. trickling in. We can certainly agree to disagree on this, because these are matters of conjunctures - nobody knows what mission Putin assigned. Let us just say that if Russia was indeed not capable of eliminating the Ukrainian forces around Kiev in 2 days, we really do not have much to worry about Russia conventional forces...
Re. Sevastopol: we are on the same path as with all other points above. My point was not to discuss the mechanism by which the US retains Guantanamo and Russia retains Sevastopol; my point is that they both do.
A strategic mistake...
Look, if this can help, let me say that I believe that Putin was morally wrong - for whatever this may mean in the context of Realpolitik - and that - much more importantly - he likely committed the most egregious strategic mistake in modern Russian history (since WW II) by resorting to force now, at the time when precisely he was about - thanks to the efforts of the French President and German Chancellor - to be able to likely restart a global discussion about security in Europe with the US.
Had the Biden/Putin global summit Macron and Scholz were working on been allowed to convene, it is my belief that Putin would have obtained what he wanted, because France and Germany would have continued to oppose the entry of Ukraine (and Georgia, and Belarus should the prospect have emerged - which is unlikely currently) in NATO, just as they did in Bucharest in 2008, because France and Germany - not withstanding the great Occidental principles and not withstanding the US inconsiderate pressure - understand that Russia will not accept NATO/US bases - and the associated strategic hardware - on its borders.
But maybe not a terminal mistake (?)
Why Putin made the decision he made is a mystery to me. I agree with
Red Leg that he has de facto written himself out of international goodwill for a while, or maybe permanently.
However, I would point out - another Realpolitik fact - that even at the darkest hours of the Cold War, when we really did not like Khrushchev or Brezhnev either, the US were in constant - and often successful - negotiation with the USSR (e.g. various arms treaties), so, liking the other guy is not a prerequisite to conduct the nation's business, as also illustrated by our on again and off again negotiations with Kim Jong-un or Ebrahim Raisi.................