Politics

[Phil Giordano]

It has already been announced that he will make an address Wednesday.

Ok so that's a date
Good to know
We'll see

 

[Red Leg]

As I suggested, complacency will kill us this time around.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Trump would do well to consult Tulsi Gabbard on how to debate Harris. They need to take Harris seriously. The democrats have some advantages now, they know what the Trump team looks like and they can adjust their strategy with that in mind.

I still feel that Trump dropped the ball in his VP selection. Rather than picking someone who might appeal to some of the voters outside his base he went with someone who mainly appeals to his base. I have nothing at all against Vance but I fail to see what he adds in terms of attracting the undecided. The advantage the Democrats now have is they know who they are up against and can adjust their ticket accordingly.

Right after the attempt on Trump's life I would have rated his chance to be elected at 70% now I think we're looking at 50-50.

I think the VP pick may prove a poor one too. Also wish Desantis was the nominee..

 

[Brent in Az]

Geez......some of you guys seem to have already handed Kamala the presidency.

 

[Daisy]

My view is that if it can survive outside the womb on its own (or after spending some time in a preemie unit) than it is viable. Studies put it at about 20+ (50% chance to survive) weeks. However, if the baby has no chance of survival at all then it is fine to medically terminate it at any time e.g. no skull development etc..

That being said, it is up to the mother. If she wants to give birth to a dead baby or one without kidneys that would die within minutes, then she can do whatever she wants.

How would a full term baby “survive on its on?”

 

[Brent in Az]

It's time for team Trump to go scorched earth on Kamala Harris.

 

[Daisy]

Exactly what Biden was saying. Every single election serves to validate poll accuracy one way or another. Since the embarrassment of 2016, they have improved greatly.

Huh?

2020 election markedly underestimated Trump voters just like 2016. 2018 and 22 lined up better with polling data, but Trump himself wasn’t on the ticket.

Joe was 9 points ahead at this point in 2020, and Hillary was 5 (real clear politics). Trump beat Hillary, and he lost national vote by 4% to Joe and lost electoral college by about 80k votes total.

The polls can not (and will not) accurately judge the trump vote. If trump is leading, or down by 5 points or less, he most likely wins the electoral college.

He was up by 4 points on Joe the day he dropped out.

Read Nate silver. He will tell you the same thing. He states Kamala is an underdog still, and she will need to make up 6-8 points in 3 months to win. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Don’t bet the house.

 

[Hogpatrol]

As I suggested, complacency will kill us this time around.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

It hurt Trump in 2020. The Republican voters stayed home and the Democrats came out in force. If it repeats this year, we're looking at a four year meme storm and instead of a male puppet, a female one.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Does the human concept of “being right” amaze anyone else? It’s crazy how two people on opposite sides of any argument can adamantly claim that they are right and the other is wrong.

They can’t both be right.

 

[Datchew]

About those polls

Reuters 'Shock Poll' Finds Kamala Leading Trump, There's Just One Catch... | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[steve white]

I am saying that there is a pretty unique chance to trace that shot back to source in one plane and maybe from Trump's head angle in the other plane too. I would love to see where that leads to. Pretty easy to do with some side elevation images.

Well, they do have a photo showing the vapor trail thus direction of the bullet in flight...

 

[Aaron N]

They can’t both be right.

And yet they both think they are….

 

[Wheels]

As I suggested, complacency will kill us this time around.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

426 registered Democrats vs 376 registered Republicans in the poll, compared to 49% Democrats or lean Democrat vs 48% Republicans or lean Republican in the general population. Reuters oversampling of Democrats is not figured into this poll at a quick glance of the polls criteria.

I do agree that complacency will kill.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

And yet they both think they are….

One’s obviously wrong haha. It’s up to the onlookers to decide for themselves who’s right or wrong or both are incorrect.

That said, on certain issues there can be no middle ground.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

It appears that there isn't a huge amount of elevation difference, so a relatively flat shot. The building where the shooter was located is not all that tall and Trump was on an elevated stage.

If the stage is 4ft tall, plus Trump is 6 ft tall, that's 10 ft, give or take. The sniper elevation is 15-20 ft. So maybe 10 ft elevation difference.

This article gives the best details: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...-rally-shooting-maps-secret-service-analysis/

 

[fourfive8]

My only fear is that no matter who runs on the Dem ticket, they will be promoted as royalty by the MSM, "loved and adored by all Americans". Anything they say will be the most profound, insightful oratory ever to grace the ears of the American public. Harris cackling gobbledegook in rhymed loops will be spun as pure articulation of verbal art and beauty spoken by a youthful, vigorous candidate in contrast with anything spoken by the opposition on the R side. I really hope the Dems cannibalize each other in the race to the top.

Sure doesn't seem like Trump nor Vance are complacent about their Dem opponents. The MSM, Dem machine, RINOS and those with TDS have and will certainly continue to attempt to paint Trump and Vance as complacent. They will also continue to tell you not to believe your lying eyes and ears. The only complacency for the ticket to guard against would be to not recognize how corrupt the deep state, Dem opposition, RINOS and MSM all are.

 

[LivingTheDream]

That article didn't say in plain terms what happens to the embryos not chosen. These embryos are discarded. Again I made my point clear that some view an embryo as a life and some don't. I go back to the cake metaphor.

I would also point to paragraph 3 of the article below as to what often happens if more than the desired number of embryos develop into a fetus.

This is yet another example of why some are opposed to IVF which was my main point to @VertigoBE .

If you can enlighten me as to how choosing a desired, screened embryo, discarding the rest and possibly aborting extra fetuses when too many take isn't at least borderline playing God then I'm all ears. Maybe playing God is a term some don't like but you can't discount others moral and ethical concerns.

Yes I understand giving people the ability to be parents through IVF. It's everything that goes along with the process that people question and/or flat out disagree with.

Let's also not forget the complete lack of responsibility on all sides with the world famous "Octomom" IVF saga.

Why Discarding Embryos Is Inherent to the IVF Process

Here's why some Alabama IVF clinics have paused operations after a state court ruling

www.medpagetoday.com

If there is something you don't wish to air publicly and would rather do in a private conversation I'm all ears and open to it. If it's something you can say publicly I would encourage it for the benefit of all. My views are pretty clear.

So here is the nuance to this issue. There are viable embryos and there are non-viable embryos.

In basic terms nothing really matters till day 5. Day 1 they tell you how many eggs they got and many fertilizer, then Day 3 update on how many are growing. Day 5 is how many are an embryo. At this point they do genetic testing and freezing. Almost all IVF places prefer or almost exclusive doing Frozen so they can genetically test.

Genetically testing is essentially telling you whether the embryo is viable or not. If it doesn't have enough chromosomes it is not viable and will result in failed transfer or a miscarriage. Now if you have non-viable embryos you can either keep them frozen at a couple hundred dollars a year, or discard them, or donate them to science. Most embryos are 50/50 viable to non-viable. I hope we agree on the term Non-viable. The testing does provide some information regarding genetic diseases as well but you will know that mostly beforehand due to blood work. But essentially this is why IVF has to be able to discard embryos there is no way to guarantee you will get a viable one.

The doctors I talked to will not transfer more than 1 viable embryos at a time. The information is a bit dated with transferring 2 or more, as that was done with fresh transfers in older woman due to egg quality. Given the pain and suffering most go through to get the pregnancy stage, I cant imagine abortions being performed. I will caveat this, with I am sure it happens, people can be horrible.

I would also point out most IVFs are done because of a medical reason. Such as reoccurring miscarriages or ectopic pregrancies. To get to a egg retrieval a woman has to give herself anywhere between 30 and 60 shots in the stomach. Then the retrieval and then another 30 to 60 shots for transfer. Then you pray.

I have heard people say you should have to implant the non-viable embryos, which is the equivalent of wishing someone to have a miscarriage.

I have also had people say that it is up to God if you get pregnant and should have a baby. Which to means I guess we shouldn't see doctors for medical answers.

The only personal thing I will add is that we still have our non-viable embryos, I am not ready to let them go.

I dont want to this to be a case of what-aboutism. John/Kate plus8 didn't follow medical procedures and had sex after she got her final shot. I'm guessing octomom did something similar. But to point out a few bad actors (think poaching, gun murders, etc) amongst an otherwise ethical practice is a flawed argument.

And to answer the question no one asked, but life ends when the heart stops. Life starts at the heartbeat.

Anyways not sure if they helps or not, but at least it is another data point.

 

[LivingTheDream]

My only fear is that no matter who runs on the Dem ticket, they will be promoted as royalty by the MSM, "loved and adored by all Americans". Anything they say will be the most profound, insightful oratory ever to grace the ears of the American public. Harris cackling gobbledegook in rhymed loops will be spun as pure articulation of verbal art and beauty spoken by a youthful, vigorous candidate in contrast with anything spoken by the opposition on the R side. I really hope the Dems cannibalize each other in the race to the top.

Sure doesn't seem like Trump nor Vance are complacent about their Dem opponents. The MSM, Dem machine, RINOS and those with TDS have and will certainly continue to attempt to paint Trump and Vance as complacent. They will also continue to tell you not to believe your lying eyes and ears. The only complacency for the ticket to guard against would be to not recognize how corrupt the deep state, Dem opposition, RINOS and MSM all are.

There is actually a fair amount of articles being leaked out about how people don't want it to be Harris. Axios and LA Times each had articles today. Also ActBlue greatly out raised the Harris Campaign...so not sure how to read into that.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

So here is the nuance to this issue. There are viable embryos and there are non-viable embryos.

In basic terms nothing really matters till day 5. Day 1 they tell you how many eggs they got and many fertilizer, then Day 3 update on how many are growing. Day 5 is how many are an embryo. At this point they do genetic testing and freezing. Almost all IVF places prefer or almost exclusive doing Frozen so they can genetically test.

Genetically testing is essentially telling you whether the embryo is viable or not. If it doesn't have enough chromosomes it is not viable and will result in failed transfer or a miscarriage. Now if you have non-viable embryos you can either keep them frozen at a couple hundred dollars a year, or discard them, or donate them to science. Most embryos are 50/50 viable to non-viable. I hope we agree on the term Non-viable. The testing does provide some information regarding genetic diseases as well but you will know that mostly beforehand due to blood work. But essentially this is why IVF has to be able to discard embryos there is no way to guarantee you will get a viable one.

The doctors I talked to will not transfer more than 1 viable embryos at a time. The information is a bit dated with transferring 2 or more, as that was done with fresh transfers in older woman due to egg quality. Given the pain and suffering most go through to get the pregnancy stage, I cant imagine abortions being performed. I will caveat this, with I am sure it happens, people can be horrible.

I would also point out most IVFs are done because of a medical reason. Such as reoccurring miscarriages or ectopic pregrancies. To get to a egg retrieval a woman has to give herself anywhere between 30 and 60 shots in the stomach. Then the retrieval and then another 30 to 60 shots for transfer. Then you pray.

I have heard people say you should have to implant the non-viable embryos, which is the equivalent of wishing someone to have a miscarriage.

I have also had people say that it is up to God if you get pregnant and should have a baby. Which to means I guess we shouldn't see doctors for medical answers.

The only personal thing I will add is that we still have our non-viable embryos, I am not ready to let them go.

I dont want to this to be a case of what-aboutism. John/Kate plus8 didn't follow medical procedures and had sex after she got her final shot. I'm guessing octomom did something similar. But to point out a few bad actors (think poaching, gun murders, etc) amongst an otherwise ethical practice is a flawed argument.

And to answer the question no one asked, but life ends when the heart stops. Life starts at the heartbeat.

Anyways not sure if they helps or not, but at least it is another data point.

Life starts at conception. What about surrogacy? What about the buying and selling of eggs or sperm? I’m sorry but it’s not ethical or moral in the least. I know it’s worked well for some good people but what sounds amazing and compassionate in theory or at first glance is often not the right thing to do when you look at the bigger picture and the potential for abuse.

 

[Tanks]

Oh by the by, she hasn't picked her VP yet, which will likely take at least one swing state out of play.

My bet is PA governor Josh Shapiro. He won the Governor's race almost by 15%. Also, a lot more moderate than Harris. Of course, if Harris listens to the Hamas supporters, then he won't get selected.

PA most likely will go blue with him as the VP.