So I actually think this is how Trump can at least bring Russia to the negotiating table. Trump might actually be entering the whitehouse at the perfect time assuming Ukraine is able to utilize F-16s to achieve some air superiority within its boarders.
We have all critized Jake Sullivan's policies of not giving Ukraine what it needs or at least the green light to do what is necessary.
In theory, again this is in theory, but Trump could tell Zelesky we are taking the gloves off, do what is necessary, and don't worry about the 60 mile radius. Trump could impose real sanctions, and with the promise that we are going to export so much oil they will be bankrupt in 3 years.
So you have a situation where Russia has used up most of its modern resources, is burning out artillery barrels, and does not have air superiority, and economic hardships. I dont see a situation where Trump as president that Putin escalates but instead will decide to negotiate with Ukraine.
Now thinking about this on a long term strategic interest, I do believe the DoD has had Ukraine execute exactly as intended. They wanted a meat grinder that would drain Russia's resources, military equipment, and economy. This is why anytime there was a stalemate or look like Russia may gain an upper hand, they give them something new (Leopard Tanks, Cluster Bombs, LR Missiles, the ability to hit within 60 miles of the boarder). The steady drip plays to the psychological effect of keep fighting, this time will be different, while resulting in more dead Russians. While in reality the front lines have only moved a few KM in the last year.
I also believe that any pause, treaty, or peace deal is to give Russia time to acquire, build, and train new resources for another go in decade. Which is why I am a little leary about anything that Russia agrees to.