Politics

[Corey0372]

Announce we intend to provide 700 M1A2 tanks and 1500 Bradley IFVs by the middle of 2025 with initial deliveries beginning immediately. Announce we are accelerating the transfer of F-16 fighters to insure 6 fully operational squadrons by the middle of 2025. Announce the deployment of two or three additional Patriot batteries. Announce the provision of 300 Paladin howitzer systems.

How long would it take to train the operators of this equipment and the maintenance specialists required to make it effective? Will they have the opportunity to train at scale at something akin to an NTC exercise?

 

[Red Leg]

How long would it take to train the operators of this equipment and the maintenance specialists required to make it effective? Will they have the opportunity to train at scale at something akin to an NTC exercise?

NTC- no. Grafenwoehr or Hohenfels collective training yes. Considering the Russians are getting 2-4 weeks familiarization training that would be a substantial delta. Biggest challenge would be the maintenance support. A Corps level general support maintenance facility in Poland manned by US logisticians would resolve many of those issues.

 

[Corey0372]

NTC- no. Grafenwoehr or Hohenfels collective training yes. Considering the Russians are getting 2-4 weeks familiarization training that would be a substantial delta. Biggest challenge would be the maintenance support. A Corps level general support maintenance facility in Poland manned by US logisticians would resolve many of those issues.

Contractors or soldiers doing the maintenance? Would Russia just step up attacks on supply lines? I would assume the bulk of the tanks/hardware would be move to the front by rail or flatbed.

 

[mauserhunter]

The Sound of Freedom movie was ignored by all major streaming services until it became a "runaway" hit movie in theaters.

I took my wife to it and afterward she was on her phone for hours telling family and friends to go see it. I also gave my daughters money and told them to go see it. Their response to it was the same result as my wife's.

Human trafficking, white (brown, black) slavery, indentured servitude are/is a massive problem largely ignored by most people and nearly all politicians. Of course if politicians don't admit there is a problem, does it exist except in minds of conspiracy theorists?

Finally, Sound of Freedom is available for free on Amazon Prime. If you don't subscribe to Prime, it can be rented for $6.

Amazon.com

Great movie, hard to get thought tho.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

NTC- no. Grafenwoehr or Hohenfels collective training yes. Considering the Russians are getting 2-4 weeks familiarization training that would be a substantial delta. Biggest challenge would be the maintenance support. A Corps level general support maintenance facility in Poland manned by US logisticians would resolve many of those issues.

Surely the truly massive use of drones makes all this military hardware redundant? Not just small flying attack devices against humans and larger ones against vehicles and tanks (they are already there of course), but larger combat robots like the Boston Dynamics dog in autonomous role with rifle or in kamkazi mode with explosives. The Ukrainians have conquered the Black Sea without men on the water. Surely it can be done on land?

 

[spike.t]

The afghan exit and the fkup keeping Ukraine supplied is now impacting the thoughts of Taiwanese....

Share Message - Taiwan election: China sows doubt about US with disinformation

Taiwan election: China sows doubt about US with disinformation

Beijing is pushing "US scepticism" to drive a wedge between Taiwan and its biggest ally, say analysts.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Jfet]

Peter’s description of the U.S.’s politics before and after campaign finance reform is quite interesting. I will enjoy and appreciate y’alls opinion on this video.

 

[fourfive8]

No one will ever catch me defending Nancy Pelosi.

Really? IIRC, You didn't seem to have any problem with this despicable behavior. Nor in ignoring the fact that Pelosi actively promoted and coordinated, as Speaker of the House, the Russia collusion hoax paid for by Hillary, et al, that led to the 1st impeachment. A hoax, continuously pumped out by the MSM, that to this day is still believed by a large segment of the population. A proven hoax that has never been rescinded by anyone in the TDS brigade.

 

[Red Leg]

Really? IIRC, You didn't seem to have any problem with this despicable behavior. Nor in ignoring the fact that Pelosi actively promoted and coordinated, as Speaker of the House, the Russia collusion hoax paid for by Hillary, et al, that led to the 1st impeachment. A hoax, continuously pumped out by the MSM, that to this day is still believed by a large segment of the population. A proven hoax that has never been rescinded by anyone in the TDS brigade.
View attachment 579142

As is too often the case, I have no idea what you are talking about. If you believe I have defended either impeachment effort you are mistaken.

 

[fourfive8]

I meant exactly what I said.

One has absolutely nothing to do with the other. Republicans should be just as concerned about Russian aggression as they are the border and human trafficking. Instead they are happy to set aside a critical national interest and kill Ukrainians for political leverage. Am I angry that Biden has done nothing meaningful to fix the immigration issue - of course. But that has nothing to do with the threat posed by a resurgent Russia again threatening Western Europe.

What I would love to hear from some of my republican colleagues is a strategy behind abandoning Ukraine of the sort they demand of Biden. What does the Europe they envision look like in ten and twenty years after Russia absorbs Ukraine? Explain how this more powerful, aggressive state on the borders of Europe helps in our long term engagement with China. Are we now a Russian ally? How does this newly emboldened, largely hostile power, help secure our mercantile-based economy? Regrettably, the Chip Roys and Boeberts of the world likely can't find Ukraine on a map, much less understand the concepts of critical national interests.

The problem with those in the West who self-promote as experts on international strategy, particularly pertaining to countries like Russia and the leadership there, IMO, display a complete lack of understanding of the mindset. I really don't think anyone has a crystal ball for telling the future of when Russia or Putin just says, "I give". In the meantime, the US keeps pumping money and international political capital into a proxy war hoping for that eventual conclusion. Seems like history is replete with that type of wishful thinking. This error in this thinking even gets supported by nuances of theoretically comparable history like... "well, Russia pulled out of Afghanistan because it wasn't fighting for Mother Russia". Or... "Stalin only tried for 3 1/2 months in the Finland Winter (suicide) War and doomed 50,000 to 125,000 troops (even historians can't agree on the number) but gave up because that action was not exactly defending Mother Russia". For anyone to think and promote the idea they are a mindreader in these matters is treading in dangerous territory, IMO. It would be wise to play "devil's advocate" a bit here. Self described experts currently like and are actively selling the idea that just a "little more" and Russia with cave and give up on Ukraine. Offering such "proof" as, see here, "Stupid Russian commanders sent 2 APCs and a tank into a Ukrainian trap and were destroyed" see, see, "just a little more and Russia (Putin) will give up". Or same "experts" will float the domino theory for the rest of Europe.... "if we don't stop them now....". The domino theory has not played out well if history is any teacher. And the Russian mind-reading experts would have everyone believe that since Russia (Putin) is not fighting for Mother Russia in the Crimea or SE Ukraine they will give up if we support the proxy "just a little more, for just a little longer". How long? 5 years? 20 years? Playing a "devil's advocate" debate might be wise. Just suppose that the Russians particularly the leadership and Putin actually do think of the Crimea and SE Ukraine as Mother Russia!

 

[Red Leg]

Peter’s description of the U.S.’s politics before and after campaign finance reform is quite interesting. I will enjoy and appreciate y’alls opinion on this video.

Fascinating as usual. It is worth noting that the federal government, through legislation (campaign finance reform for one) and the courts has been fairly active in providing oversight and guidance to the states with regard to election management.

 

[Red Leg]

The problem with those in the West who self-promote as experts on international strategy, particularly pertaining to countries like Russia and the leadership there, IMO, display a complete lack of understanding of the mindset. I really don't think anyone has a crystal ball for telling the future of when Russia or Putin just says, "I give". In the meantime, the US keeps pumping money and international political capital into a proxy war hoping for that eventual conclusion. Seems like history is replete with that type of wishful thinking. This error in this thinking even gets supported by nuances of theoretically comparable history like... "well, Russia pulled out of Afghanistan because it wasn't fighting for Mother Russia". Or... "Stalin only tried for 3 1/2 months in the Finland Winter (suicide) War and doomed 50,000 to 125,000 troops (even historians can't agree on the number) but gave up because that action was not exactly defending Mother Russia". For anyone to think and promote the idea they are a mindreader in these matters is treading in dangerous territory, IMO. It would be wise to play "devil's advocate" a bit here. Self described experts currently like and are actively selling the idea that just a "little more" and Russia with cave and give up on Ukraine. Offering such "proof" as, see here, "Stupid Russian commanders sent 2 APCs and a tank into a Ukrainian trap and were destroyed" see, see, "just a little more and Russia (Putin) will give up". Or same "experts" will float the domino theory for the rest of Europe.... "if we don't stop them now....". The domino theory has not played out well if history is any teacher. And the Russian mind-reading experts would have everyone believe that since Russia (Putin) is not fighting for Mother Russia in the Crimea or SE Ukraine they will give up if we support the proxy "just a little more, for just a little longer". How long? 5 years? 20 years? Playing a "devil's advocate" debate might be wise. Just suppose that the Russians particularly the leadership and Putin actually do think of the Crimea and SE Ukraine as Mother Russia!

I guess I am old school, but if my truck needs the block pulled then I prefer a mechanic who has actual experience doing the job, attended some level of tech training, and uses the shop manual. Nevertheless, shade tree mechanics damage vehicles every day because someone listened to them instead.

Discussions of foreign policy are much the same way. Too many people don't have any regional experience; have never studied international relations, economics, or history; or participated in high level military or political decision making, but are certain they understand how to repair that truck. Actual expertise is even ridiculed. We even elect a lot of those sorts of people to congress (Tom DeLay comes to mind). George Wallace made anti-intellectualism central to his presidential campaign as he railed against "pointy-heads who couldn’t ride a bicycle straight." The same proud ignorance characterizes much of the Trump movement. Though, I am not sure whether Wallace or Trump have differentiated between the self-proclaimed or merely highly experienced and well read.

I have always wondered about that alternative anti-intellectual world in which the US would conduct foreign policy through high school drop outs who have never been abroad, are barely literate, and have no clue about the application of military, economic or political power.

You and I are actually in agreement about one issue, The Biden policy of gradualism in supporting Ukraine is fundamentally flawed. That doesn't mean supporting Ukraine is wrong. On the contrary, it is absolutely correct, however ineptly we do it. But we should have been and should now be far more decisive in the materiel we have provided Ukraine to wage this war. Reversing that, was the point I was making several posts back in suggesting what could be done to change the trajectory of the current fight.

Your comment on the Domino Theory is interesting. Quite a bit of revisionist history has been written of late (yes, by those degenerates with post graduate degrees) theorizing that most of Southeast Asia and nearly all of Central Asia, including Thailand, Singapore, and the Indian subcontinent never faced serious subversive communist movements because of the US involvement in Vietnam. It reverses the traditional post-war analysis that says the Domini Theory was wrong because it didn't happen, with the Domino Theory didn't happen because of US intervention. It is worth some thought.

Back to the whole expertise issue, it is the primary reason I have been so frustrated with the notion of Jake Sullivan, as National Security Advisor, running this war in the absence of a competent commander in chief. He is a lawyer and campaign strategist without an iota of regional, military, or diplomatic experience.

With respect to your musings about "Mother Russia," I'll just let them stand on their own. I would note Finland was eventually defeated by the Soviet Union in 1944.

 

[Red Leg]

Contractors or soldiers doing the maintenance? Would Russia just step up attacks on supply lines? I would assume the bulk of the tanks/hardware would be move to the front by rail or flatbed.

I would assume they already would be doing so if they effectively could. The majority of materiel currently provided is being marshalled in and forwarded from Poland along a limited number of rail corridors.

Cruise missiles are not very effective at taking out bridges or rail lines, much less engaging targets of limited duration (trains). That is work for an air force. But of course Russian aviation is unable to penetrate Ukrainian air space in order to conduct battlefield interdiction missions using their equivalent of JDAMs.

 

[ActionBob]

The problem with those in the West who self-promote as experts on international strategy, particularly pertaining to countries like Russia and the leadership there, IMO, display a complete lack of understanding of the mindset. I really don't think anyone has a crystal ball for telling the future of when Russia or Putin just says, "I give". In the meantime, the US keeps pumping money and international political capital into a proxy war hoping for that eventual conclusion. Seems like history is replete with that type of wishful thinking. This error in this thinking even gets supported by nuances of theoretically comparable history like... "well, Russia pulled out of Afghanistan because it wasn't fighting for Mother Russia". Or... "Stalin only tried for 3 1/2 months in the Finland Winter (suicide) War and doomed 50,000 to 125,000 troops (even historians can't agree on the number) but gave up because that action was not exactly defending Mother Russia". For anyone to think and promote the idea they are a mindreader in these matters is treading in dangerous territory, IMO. It would be wise to play "devil's advocate" a bit here. Self described experts currently like and are actively selling the idea that just a "little more" and Russia with cave and give up on Ukraine. Offering such "proof" as, see here, "Stupid Russian commanders sent 2 APCs and a tank into a Ukrainian trap and were destroyed" see, see, "just a little more and Russia (Putin) will give up". Or same "experts" will float the domino theory for the rest of Europe.... "if we don't stop them now....". The domino theory has not played out well if history is any teacher. And the Russian mind-reading experts would have everyone believe that since Russia (Putin) is not fighting for Mother Russia in the Crimea or SE Ukraine they will give up if we support the proxy "just a little more, for just a little longer". How long? 5 years? 20 years? Playing a "devil's advocate" debate might be wise. Just suppose that the Russians particularly the leadership and Putin actually do think of the Crimea and SE Ukraine as Mother Russia!

Well I think it is pretty much Gauranteed that the Ukrainians, particularly the leadership and Zalinski think of the Crimea and SE Ukraine as "Mother Ukraine"!

I admittedly have not read every post on this thread. However I have read a lot of it and follow it as a point of interest. I do not recall the theory of Putin voluntarily giving up being promoted as a likelihood. Maybe I'm wrong. But what I took away from this discussion by primarily @Red Leg but also others is that Ukraine has been systematically destroying Russia's ability to make war on it's neighbors. By us sending weapons systems, ordinance, military supplies, we are getting the bargain deal of destroying one of our top 4 adversaries in the World for the super low cost of sending our obsolete military goods over there and using Ukrainian blood. In addition, Russia has not only depleted it's supply of various weapons and ordinance, but is now using stocks from Iran and North Korea. Better those are expended by Russia against Ukraine than against us or our allies.

And Putin is depleting his human resources that he cannot re-supply. I don't have the statistics, but I believe the birth rate in Russia has been such that as Putin uses up this current generation of young men, I'm suspicious that there is another generation of boys existing in Russia to rebuild the Russian Army. Much less their economy!

No we are obviously getting great bang (pun intended) for our buck when it comes to military aide to Ukraine.

I don't think it's a point of Putin somehow suddenly seeing the light and giving up. But rather it is a point of Putin running out of options. That is what I have read from postings by those with more knowledge and information than I have.

I for one continue to enjoy the updates and explanations. Especially the ones from an experienced and informed source.

 

[Jfet]

Actual expertise is even ridiculed.

Welcome to being a high school football coach. On Friday nights the dumbest people in the stadium are the coaches.

 

[PARA45]

 

[Red Leg]

Welcome to being a high school football coach. On Friday nights the dumbest people in the stadium are the coaches.

Pithy, but perfect.

 

[Red Leg]

Surely the truly massive use of drones makes all this military hardware redundant? Not just small flying attack devices against humans and larger ones against vehicles and tanks (they are already there of course), but larger combat robots like the Boston Dynamics dog in autonomous role with rifle or in kamkazi mode with explosives. The Ukrainians have conquered the Black Sea without men on the water. Surely it can be done on land?

In a word no. Anti-drone technology of various types is already being fielded. Battles are won by closing with and destroying the enemy, not by playing Nintendo. What the drones have done is provide Ukraine with a useful, though far from decisive, alternative to close air support.

 

[Red Leg]

Back to Ukraine for a moment, there are a lot of these sorts of clips being posted over the last few weeks. What they show are wounded Russian soldiers choosing suicide rather than awaiting potential evacuation. I am not entirely sure what conclusions to draw from them, but any notion of high morale or confidence in Medevac among the Russian army can likely be discounted.

One also has to wonder how often this is happening. UA drones are only viewing tiny portions of the front line at any given moment.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/191h5ms

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/190xvhv

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/18uapd8

 

[ActionBob]

I am not entirely sure what conclusions to draw from them

Probably a severe shortage of Vodka.