Politics

[mark-hunter]

We are currently in a pre-stage of a world war. I compare it to the period between 1936-1939. The civil war in Spain is raging and it is unclear who will win, but Italy and Germany help Franco, while the West mainly stays silent. Same goes with Czechoslovakia and Austria, two sovereign nations which still are independent but on the verge to be annexed. Again the West does nothing. By the end of this pre-world war period the fascist regimes have achieved everything and with the Hitler-Stalin Pact the gates to WW2 are now fully open.

There is a difference.
At that time Hitler was building Army 33-39 without any opposition, and when he attacked Poland, he had equipment and at least 5 million army personnel trained and psychologically prepared.
Russia does not have 5 million men ready, and as @Red Leg said, they have degraded their Army by unaccountable equipment losses. There is also no any sign of Russian mobilization of that size.

 

[Pondoro]

There is a difference.
At that time Hitler was building Army 33-39 without any opposition, and when he attacked Poland, he had equipment and at least 5 million army personnel trained and psychologically prepared.
Russia does not have 5 million men ready, and as @Red Leg said, they have degraded their Army by unaccountable equipment losses. There is also no any sign of Russian mobilization of that size.

Maybe so...but then it should be more easy for Ukraine to brake the current stalemate at the front..if the west provide enough of what they need..?

 

[mark-hunter]

Maybe so...but then it should be more easy for Ukraine to brake the current stalemate at the front..if the west provide enough of what they need..?

What is happening there now, is maybe best described by general Zaluzhny, in magazine the economist (make google search): both sides are fighting with same level of technology so none can gain advantage, and to push forward they need technological advantage.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

What is happening there now, is maybe best described by general Zaluzhny, in magazine the economist (make google search): both sides are fighting with same level of technology so none can gain advantage, and to push forward they need technological advantage.

Land robots, they have sea drones, flying drones. Add dog robots.

 

[Hunt anything]

We are currently in a pre-stage of a world war. I compare it to the period between 1936-1939. The civil war in Spain is raging and it is unclear who will win, but Italy and Germany help Franco, while the West mainly stays silent. Same goes with Czechoslovakia and Austria, two sovereign nations which still are independent but on the verge to be annexed. Again the West does nothing. By the end of this pre-world war period the fascist regimes have achieved everything and with the Hitler-Stalin Pact the gates to WW2 are now fully open.

Russia, North Korea and Iran, as well as their minions such Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad-Syria and the Houthis in Yemen are currently moving against the free world. China is in my opinion currently more on the side-lines even when some Chinese hardware appears in Russian arsenal, but it is far from what it could be if China seriously goes in. China has its own plan and it does not include an existent Russia.

This might sound bleak but it doesn't have to be. There is still a chance to avert world war 3. The key to everything is Ukraine, and this is no hyperbole. When Russia fails in Ukraine, then the whole axis of the dictatorships will fall apart. Putin will be considered the greatest loser of Russian history, will be removed and Russia in its current form will end to exist. Regimes in countries like Belarus, Syria and Serbia will lose their puppetplayer and will end. The mullah regime will be extremely exposed and vulnerable, offering the freedom-loving people of Iran to finally overthrow their mullah regime. This in turn will cause a domino effect in the Middle-East, ending the most important ally of the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Hamas, and freeing Syria and Lebanon from their biggest curse.

It is up to us in the West if we want to avert WW3. Ukraine and her fight are directly connected to this question. Ukraine is the key between freedom for all of us or WW3 if Ukraine is abandoned. There is nothing in between. It cannot be overstated that this is the single-greatest decision of our times.

This was posted on the other african hunting forum...it should be food for thought for all us westerners..

The US is the major player here...you people have the hardware aka lots of heavy weapons.. Red Leg mentioned the the US have some 300 M1 Abrams tanks in storage..? Send them over ASAP along with long range ATACAM´s Germany should send Taurus missiles too..

The EU do not have enough heavy weapons....but it is financially strong...let them finance at least some of the weaponry the US supply.

@Pondoro this is a well thought out post seems accurate and I agree with most of it except your statement about the Middle East. Bush thought that by removing Hussein the Iraqi people would rise up and embrace freedom and democracy. That definitely didn’t happen and gave rise to new terror organizations.
I truly hope the Iranian people and other ME countries would rise up and replace the mullahs if your scenario plays out but it may give rise to something even worse if that’s possible.

 

[Red Leg]

Would you include artillery in this?

Towards the end of the video when Zeihan says Ukraine needs to defeat the Russians in Avdiivka with the current odds, and then do it 100 more times, I'm sure there's a bit of hyperbole there, but the point does stand. The Russians seem at least firm on holding Donbas, and probably ironclad on holding Crimea. So I guess to your point about this war ending when Putin wants it to end, I don't know to me it seems that it's more likely that it will end when Kiev decides to stop trying to retake lost ground.


It's true Russia isn't fighting an invader, but for the last couple of months they've been doing a lot of defensive operations.


With the tank issue... it almost seems like the Russians have at times basically just been using tanks in the same way we would use an MRAP or GMV with extra guns mounted, and I mean if you have thousands of them and ammo for them.... why not?

"Chardonnay sipping liberal set" is golden btw...

With the tank issue... it almost seems like the Russians have at times basically just been using tanks in the same way we would use an MRAP or GMV with extra guns mounted, and I mean if you have thousands of them and ammo for them.... why not?

"Chardonnay sipping liberal set" is golden btw...

A tank is not a tank is not a tank. A T72, much less a T90, with modern night vision and extended range engagement capability, effective active and passive defense measures, and a well trained crew is a capable combat platform. A T64 or T72 without night vision, with parallax range finding, minimal passive defense capability, and a barely trained crew is a target to every anti-armor system on the battlefield.

Those modernized T72's along with fully 3/4's of their T-90's (many had been reserved for regime protection) are charred wrecks. Much of the vast inventory of tanks in "storage" have been sitting in open fields surrounded by barb wire for more than forty years. How many of those can actually be returned to active service, at what capability, and at what cost?

Additionally, the design of the Russian tanks has meant a high percentage of catastrophic kills because the commander and gunner sit in the center of a carrousel of exposed ammunition. Nearly two-thirds of tank kills have resulted in the immolation of the crew. Those men are impossible to replace from the sweepings of prisons.

With respect to MRAPs, we would never expose them to a battlefield of this lethality. We also wouldn't send a crew out in a sixties or seventies era armored vehicle.

With respect to artillery, Russia had a huge advantage at the start of the campaign. By August of 23, Ukraine had actually achieved fires superiority. Thanks to reductions in shipments of 155mm ammunition, Russia has regained an advantage in numbers of rounds being fired. I think effectiveness of fires is another thing entirely, but volume is currently a Russian advantage.

So I guess to your point about this war ending when Putin wants it to end, I don't know to me it seems that it's more likely that it will end when Kiev decides to stop trying to retake lost ground.

That is a reasonable interpretation as well, particularly if Ukraine is unsuccessful in any sort of offensive action in the Spring. However, I also believe another set of forces are at work as well.

Putin's initial mobilization did not go down well with the Russian people. He and the MOD have been doing everything in their power to hide the extent of casualties. The Kremlin has been forced to scour its prisons for additional manpower. Though the economy has not collapsed, lasting damage has been done, and the average Russian is beginning to really feel it through cost inflation of domestic products - forget the non-existent Western ones. The shade of 1917 is closer to the door than it has ever been, and however effective Russian security forces have been in squashing dissent, an eruption could occur, particularly within the Army, at any point.

Putin is banking on the West, and especially the US, to abandon Ukraine before that happens giving him a settlement that includes Donetsk, Kherson (south of the Dnieper), Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts and Crimea. The recent actions of the Republican party, not to mention a potential Trump presidency, have reinforced that course of action.

What everyone seems to forget, is that Ukraine has a vote, one they have been exercising with great skill and determination since Russia embarked on its expected two-week seizure of the country. If this thing ends with the perception of Russian "victory," history will not point to a Russian achievement, but rather another failure by the West to see a conflict through to a favorable conclusion.








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[Corey0372]

A tank is not a tank is not a tank. A T72, much less a T90, with modern night vision and extended range engagement capability, effective active and passive defense measures, and a well trained crew is a capable combat platform. A T64 or T72 without night vision, with parallax range finding, minimal passive defense capability, and a barely trained crew is a target to every anti-armor system on the battlefield.

Oh no i get that, I'm just wondering if the Russians are using tanks in lieu of MRAPS. A beat up old T62 with nothing much in the way of technology other than its main gun seems like something you could quickly train a crew on (comparative to full on T90 school).
I've seen plenty of blown up MAXXPRO's (junk anyway) the Ukrainians got from us, and obviously blown up Russian trucks as well.
So idk, just seems like they're using them simply bc they have them, and maybe the guys like having a little but more umph in an assault, even though the equipment isn't operating at 100%.

With respect to MRAPs, we would never expose them to a battlefield of this lethality. We also wouldn't send a crew out in a sixties or seventies era armored vehicle.

There's a lot of things both sides are doing that I would hope the US wouldn't do with it troops, hard to say though.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Interesting news from the US Dept of Defense: Air Force B-1 crashed in South Dakota yesterday and Sec of Defense in the hospital, but no press release.

 

[PARA45]

 

[spike.t]

‘Extraordinary’: Biden administration staffers’ growing dissent against Gaza policy

An education department official resigned this week, and 17 staffers sent an anonymous letter calling for a ceasefire

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pondoro]

An interesting evaluation of Russias most modern T-90 tank variant..with comparison to M1 Abrams, Challenger 2 and Leopard 2.

And mind you, they have relatively few of these...their major tank force are various T-72 and T-80 variants, all of wich are quite obsolete compared to western tanks.. Russia also press into service older T-62´s as previously mentioned here..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Red Leg, “The recent actions of the Republican Party,”

Sir you are far too intelligent to not believe that the Republicans are only 50% of this funding stalemate.

They have tried for two years to have Biden secure the border. This appears to be the only leverage to force Biden to re instate the remain in Mexico policy.

Democrats “funding” for border security translates to more border agents and judges to facilitate illegal migration.

And on the border subject. If you have not watched the movie liberals hate. called the “Sound of Freedom” If our financial ruin, or physical security are not a concern. Perhaps the largest criminal activity world wide (Human Trafficking) may warrant control of the border.

And it’s largely children sex trade. This is so wide spread we are naive if we do not know it’s in every area of our country. Our country is now a major factor and player in funding the cartels. There are more human slaves today than anytime in history. And Liberals are so naive or ignorant that they don’t know they are facilitating slavery.


Also, Next time any of us visit an African country. Instead of all those silly passports and visa. Just stay as long as you like. See how generous they are with their taxpayers benefits.

Joe Biden bragged about 40 years in the senate and working with Republicans. In situations as this the president should sit down and make a deal. This is squarely in his lap. And his failure of leadership

In your business world. Does the CEO get a pass when things are not going as planned.

 

[Pondoro]

What if..?

Let us say that your President (and dont start that I hate Biden speech..please..) give Putin an ultimatum: - Stop hammering Ukraine civilian targets/power grid or else we will strike you hard..

Say Putin considers it a bluff....then launch a large scale Tomahawk missile/air attack from carriers in the Med. Sea and completely destroy the road/railway bridge over the Kertch sound AND hit the Sevastopol naval base hard..

The point is that it will be a solely US attack...not to drag NATO as a whole into it..

Will Putin then get the message and back down..??

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

And on the border subject. If you have not watched the movie liberals hate. called the “Sound of Freedom” If our financial ruin, or physical security are not a concern. Perhaps the largest criminal activity world wide (Human Trafficking) may warrant control of the border.

And it’s largely children sex trade. This is so wide spread we are naïve if we do not know it’s in every area of our country. Our country is now a major factor and player in funding the cartels. There are more human slaves today than anytime in history. And Liberals are so naïve or ignorant that they don’t know they are facilitating slavery.

The Sound of Freedom movie was ignored by all major streaming services until it became a "runaway" hit movie in theaters.

I took my wife to it and afterward she was on her phone for hours telling family and friends to go see it. I also gave my daughters money and told them to go see it. Their response to it was the same result as my wife's.

Human trafficking, white (brown, black) slavery, indentured servitude are/is a massive problem largely ignored by most people and nearly all politicians. Of course if politicians don't admit there is a problem, does it exist except in minds of conspiracy theorists?

Finally, Sound of Freedom is available for free on Amazon Prime. If you don't subscribe to Prime, it can be rented for $6.

Amazon.com

 

[Altitude sickness]

Thanks Mark. If you have young children, grandchildren or are just a compassionate human being. Watch this movie. Understand that human slavery is now at an all time high. Due to cartels world wide network.

It’s now the largest illegal trade. Surpassing drugs

We are aiding and abetting this trade. Next time our Liberal friends lament the U.S. salve trade. Remind them they are actually complicit in actual slavery

 

[Red Leg]

Red Leg, “The recent actions of the Republican Party,”

Sir you are far too intelligent to not believe that the Republicans are only 50% of this funding stalemate.

They have tried for two years to have Biden secure the border. This appears to be the only leverage to force Biden to re instate the remain in Mexico policy.

Democrats “funding” for border security translates to more border agents and judges to facilitate illegal migration.

And on the border subject. If you have not watched the movie liberals hate. called the “Sound of Freedom” If our financial ruin, or physical security are not a concern. Perhaps the largest criminal activity world wide (Human Trafficking) may warrant control of the border.

And it’s largely children sex trade. This is so wide spread we are naive if we do not know it’s in every area of our country. Our country is now a major factor and player in funding the cartels. There are more human slaves today than anytime in history. And Liberals are so naive or ignorant that they don’t know they are facilitating slavery.


Also, Next time any of us visit an African country. Instead of all those silly passports and visa. Just stay as long as you like. See how generous they are with their taxpayers benefits.

Joe Biden bragged about 40 years in the senate and working with Republicans. In situations as this the president should sit down and make a deal. This is squarely in his lap. And his failure of leadership

In your business world. Does the CEO get a pass when things are not going as planned.

I meant exactly what I said.

One has absolutely nothing to do with the other. Republicans should be just as concerned about Russian aggression as they are the border and human trafficking. Instead they are happy to set aside a critical national interest and kill Ukrainians for political leverage. Am I angry that Biden has done nothing meaningful to fix the immigration issue - of course. But that has nothing to do with the threat posed by a resurgent Russia again threatening Western Europe.

What I would love to hear from some of my republican colleagues is a strategy behind abandoning Ukraine of the sort they demand of Biden. What does the Europe they envision look like in ten and twenty years after Russia absorbs Ukraine? Explain how this more powerful, aggressive state on the borders of Europe helps in our long term engagement with China. Are we now a Russian ally? How does this newly emboldened, largely hostile power, help secure our mercantile-based economy? Regrettably, the Chip Roys and Boeberts of the world likely can't find Ukraine on a map, much less understand the concepts of critical national interests.

 

[Red Leg]

What if..?

Let us say that your President (and dont start that I hate Biden speech..please..) give Putin an ultimatum: - Stop hammering Ukraine civilian targets/power grid or else we will strike you hard..

Say Putin considers it a bluff....then launch a large scale Tomahawk missile/air attack from carriers in the Med. Sea and completely destroy the road/railway bridge over the Kertch sound AND hit the Sevastopol naval base hard..

The point is that it will be a solely US attack...not to drag NATO as a whole into it..

Will Putin then get the message and back down..??

If we did what you suggest, Putin would have every right to launch massive nuclear retaliation. In fact, the inbound cruise missiles might be interpreted as a decapitation first strike (a cruise missile can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead) and the Russian launch order would be issued before the first targets were actually hit. I can not imagine any President taking that risk.

 

[Pondoro]

If we did what you suggest, Putin would have every right to launch massive nuclear retaliation. In fact, the inbound cruise missiles might be interpreted as a decapitation first strike (a cruise missile can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead) and the Russian launch order would be issued before the first targets were actually hit. I can not imagine any President taking that risk.

I think Ukraine will collapse if the west dont raise the stakes..so what do you suggest should be done to pass the message to Putin..? If he is allowed to continue like this he will probably desimate the power grid and cause prolonged misery all over Ukraine..

 

[Altitude sickness]

What if our allies showed their fealty by throwing a little more in to the cause for a short period.
while our greasy politicians on both side of the isle line their pockets with side deals to the larger border and Ukraine budget.

How much pork will be added to buy votes

 

[PARA45]