Setting aside operational level blunders like the advance on Kyiv at the start of the war, Russian tactical level leadership is abysmal. The Russian Army has no professional NCO corps as we understand it. Even before the war, a soldier on his second enlistment was considered first sergeant material. Lieutenants do the jobs of senior NCOs. Add to that a strictly hierarchal command structure - i.e. no one does anything unless ordered and only what was ordered. Subordinate initiative, as we understand it in the American Army, is unheard of in Russian forces.
Their trained, modernized formations built around Battalion Tactical Groups were essentially destroyed during the first year of the war. They then emptied their training structure of experienced soldiers and officers to fill those gaping wounds. When mobilization was declared a year ago, the training structure was virtually useless and many, likely most, of those newly minted troops went to the front lines with only a week or two of familiarization with an assault rifle and RPG.
During the same period, Ukrainian troops have been undergoing extensive individual and unit collective training across NATO. This does not count the half dozen brigades that were fully Western trained before the invasion. As a result, the UA has been inflicting enormously disproportionate casualties on the attacking Russian formations.
A great source to go look at is Oryx. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1 Since the start of the war, they have tracked Russian and Ukrainian combat equipment losses. Something only makes the list if there is clear photographic evidence. With no access at all to the Russian military, their losses are likely significantly undercounted. As of this morning, Oryx lists 2,608 Russian tanks destroyed severely damaged or captured. Best Western analysis at the start of the war was that Russia entered into the conflict with around 3500 modernized tanks. DOD provided a conservative estimate of a couple of weeks ago that Russia had suffered over 300,000 casualties to date. I suspect that too is significantly undercounted.
Furthermore, the kremlin has been forced to hide as many of these casualties as possible. The battlefield is littered with Russian dead that no attempt has been made to recover. Wives and mothers are told their child is missing, or the unit is not allowed to contact home due to operational needs. As the bodies pile up, this lie will become ever harder to maintain.
All of this is why I find the suddenly popular notion that Putin can easily win a war of attrition so ludicrous. I am convinced, and I am hardly alone among my peers, that the Kremlin is approaching desperation. The Black Sea Fleet has been defeated and driven from the sea. Thin about that a moment. Russian forces have made no significant gains in 18 months while experiencing ever accelerating losses in personnel that can't be replaced without a national mobilization that Putin does not dare call.
His only real hope to achieve his strategic goals are the Republican party and Donald J Trump. Ronald Reagan would be sick to his stomach.
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