Politics

[Wheels]

 

[Red Leg]

Probably should have a Ukraine war thread, but these little vignettes are interesting to me.

This is an example of the effectiveness of drone reconnaissance married to an extraordinarily accurate artillery system. In this case, a single rocket from an American HIMARS MLRS system. This one clearly was a unitary warhead M30A1 missile equipped with a 200lb hi-explosive warhead. It will hit a target the size of the desk upon which I am typing from thirty miles away.

The real lesson, aside from the devastating accuracy of the weapon itself, is the timely coordination taking place between the recon team and the firing unit. Even more technically challenging is the mapping technology that allows the artillery fire direction center to determine the exact coordinates to the target building. Neither I nor several colleagues have yet quite figured out how they are doing it.

In this case, the recon team watches the Russian platoon rotate off the line to what is likely a warming structure. Once they are gathered inside the call for fire and exact location are relayed to the HIMARS launcher. From receipt of target data to launch will be 1 - 5 minutes depending whether the launcher is on its firing point or has to move to it from its hide. I suspect this one was locked and cocked awaiting target location. Time of flight at mach 2.5 would be around a minute. The results are catastrophic from the target's perspective.

The translation isn't the best, but this particular fire support coordinator has become rather famous as the "Stick" or "Pointer of death." I believe he is likely the fire support coordinator (FSCOORD) for the battle group defending the Bakhmut area in Eastern Ukraine.

Along with an obliterated platoon from Wagner, imagine the effect of this sort of strike on Wagner / Russian morale generally.

 

[Silvine]

They're commucrats so nothing is going to happen just like the clintons and obumma. It's already swept under the rug. A few squawks here and there to make people think they're doing something and that's it. They are all too dirty and know if they say anything they will go down, too.

the law is now for the regular folks.

 

[John Wasmuth]

I agree but his constituents keep sending him to congress.

Doesn’t say much for the level of intelligence in the people of his district……

 

[Alistair]

Even more technically challenging is the mapping technology that allows the artillery fire direction center to determine the exact coordinates to the target building. Neither I nor several colleagues have yet quite figured out how they are doing it.

Interesting stuff, thanks for that.

On the point above, forgive my naivete and it's a genuine question, but what's so difficult about this?

Off the top of my head, you'd think a gps fix on the drone, a know resolution and FOV of camera, a bearing from the location of the drone to the target, and a quick automated conversion of pixels against a known object width (say a car, a person, a road width or a standard dimensioned object like a street light or a building) could get you a gps coordinate with +/-10m or so accuracy, which would be more than enough for this kind of strike? Or readily available commercial mapping against topographic features would yield a fairly accurate aiming solution?

As an example, here's Kherson on Google maps.

If you know the drone in in this area by gps, bearing and signal strength, or simple visual markers, and you can identify a structure, you can quickly and easily get a gps pin (the one shown is the left hand side of E97 about 20-30m up the road from 'Mahnat') that'd give you pretty decent accuracy I'd have thought? Not moving vehicle good, maybe. But hard point, bridge, artillery battery, semi-permananent shelter good?

There's also laser range finding from the drone as a risky, but effective option, or simple triangulation of known features?

I doubt any of the above would allow the munition to live up to its full accuracy potential, but you'd still give some Russians a real bad day for no major effort or expenditure? Fairly simple to automate with some semi decent commercial image recognition / mapping software as well I'd have thought, although it could even be done manually in less than a minute.

 

[Ray B]

Thanks @Red Leg for the comments & video. I have the opposite perspective from you- In 1967-68 I was a L/Cpl Field Radio Operator with 1st Marine Div in WestPac, NW of Danang. One of my duties was to go out with a Forward Observer and watch for targets which we would call in a fire mission. We generally used one of the 155mm batteries and the sequence was radio the map coordinates and our azimuth to the target, the FDC would figure out what it would take to get a shell somewhere near the target, then a White Phosphorus bullet would be fired as spotter. It would hit and we'd add/drop/L/R x amt, possibly another WP. When on target we'd generally call for a battery 1 or 2 (6 or 12 bullets) High Explosive. If it was a BIG concentration we'd call for a Battery 6 Fire For Effect, which meant each gun fired 6 bullets as fast as they could (total 36 bullets). The idea of being able to shoot one bullet and get the desired result is simply amazing. In addition we'd do this with very little in the way of need for protection for the guns. The current situation involves radar picking up the bullets as they are fired, doing the FDC stuff and having guns fired at the initial guns before the original bullets were on-target would really have changed the outlook of those cannon-cockers inside the wire. Technology has really changed artillery warfare in the last 50+ years!!

 

[RTG]

EXCLUSIVE: Documents Show FBI and ATF Warrantless Surveillance Through Gun Background Checks

www.theepochtimes.com

The ATF and FBI have so much extra staff that they have time to break the law. Good place to start with budget cuts.

 

[Red Leg]

Interesting stuff, thanks for that.

On the point above, forgive my naivete and it's a genuine question, but what's so difficult about this?

Off the top of my head, you'd think a gps fix on the drone, a know resolution and FOV of camera, a bearing from the location of the drone to the target, and a quick automated conversion of pixels against a known object width (say a car, a person, a road width or a standard dimensioned object like a street light or a building) could get you a gps coordinate with +/-10m or so accuracy, which would be more than enough for this kind of strike? Or readily available commercial mapping against topographic features would yield a fairly accurate aiming solution?

As an example, here's Kherson on Google maps.

View attachment 510906

If you know the drone in in this area by gps, bearing and signal strength, or simple visual markers, and you can identify a structure, you can quickly and easily get a gps pin (the one shown is the left hand side of E97 about 20-30m up the road from 'Mahnat') that'd give you pretty decent accuracy I'd have thought? Not moving vehicle good, maybe. But hard point, bridge, artillery battery, semi-permananent shelter good?

There's also laser range finding from the drone as a risky, but effective option, or simple triangulation of known features?

I doubt any of the above would allow the munition to live up to its full accuracy potential, but you'd still give some Russians a real bad day for no major effort or expenditure? Fairly simple to automate with some semi decent commercial image recognition / mapping software as well I'd have thought, although it could even be done manually in less than a minute

See! That is why I dialogue with technically smart folks like you. I grew up in the same artillery world as @Ray B . Left 50 add 100 fire for effect. Our current military UAVs use lasers from their known GPS location. CM accuracy. But a video stream from a commercial drone has been perplexing - particularly away from a known features. Appreciate the explanation.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

See! That is why I dialogue with technically smart folks like you. I grew up in the same artillery world as @Ray B . Left 50 add 100 fire for effect. Our current military UAVs use lasers from their known GPS location. CM accuracy. But a video stream from a commercial drone has been perplexing - particularly away from a known features. Appreciate the explanation.

Beyond the love you’re showing for engineers…… …….. I can’t help but wonder who on the Russian side of these things actually see these events. This just seems like the latest in a very long list of stupid decisions by the Russian military. How much surveillance does it take for the Ukrainians to see that everyday at such and such a time, the local Russian forces in broad daylight are gathering in a single location for lunch.

Who up the Russian chain of command sees these events, if any?

 

[Alistair]

See! That is why I dialogue with technically smart folks like you. I grew up in the same artillery world as @Ray B . Left 50 add 100 fire for effect. Our current military UAVs use lasers from their known GPS location. CM accuracy. But a video stream from a commercial drone has been perplexing - particularly away from a known features. Appreciate the explanation.

That's flattering, and good for my ego.

But I'm not a silicon valley guy, I don't know the state of the art, and I'm not that smart, relatively speaking. No one would hire me to write that code. I could, given time, because I like coding, because every professional under 35 should have a working knowledge of it, because it's hugely important to job security. But I'm not good at it.

As for military applications, I have no real world experience. I know very little. But if, hypothetically, the Ukraine military came to me and said "we have 100k, but no real budget, let us kill tanks', those are the avenues I would pursue.

I can give you 90% of the performance, for 0.5% of the cost. But that's the modern military way. Except in the US, where being the best has a negative engagement factor on your opponents over and beyond the real world capabilities.

Your munitions are good, your training is excellent, but what really makes the USA better on the battlefield than the UK, or the Germans, or the Russians, has little to do with units mobilized, and everything to do with units technological capability. That's technology.

To whit. Is a Gen IV fighter worse than a Gen V? Yes.

Why. Is it faster, no. Is it more durable, no. Is it more manouverable, no, But it's sneaky, and the weapons are beyond horizon capable. Could you dogfight a F22 in a 1980's MIG15, absolutely, and it's a coin flip either way. But the F22 isn't designed to dogfight. If it's detected at all and there's any chance whatsoever of a missile lock or a visual gun solution, the pilot has screwed up, big time. In a competent engagement, the MiG doesn't know there's danger, till they die. The F22 can do that till they run out of armaments, No risk to airframe or pilot.

Same with the army. Bigger bang, no. Closer range bang, absolutely not. More accurate bang, yes.

Americans hate California. I get it. It's European, and screw those tax rates. But they drive US supremacy, as much as US manufacturing output did in the '40's.

 

[Silvine]

 

[Silvine]

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Why is it taking so long to get the Bradleys to Ukraine? Surely these things can be airlifted?

 

[JOHN GRENZ]

 

[bowjijohn]

Training, support and Maintenance that attend their successful introduction

that’s a big team and support structure

we are apparently sending 12 challenger 2’s - more of the same required for them - especially so, as their rifled barrels use non standard shells

leopard 2’s are perhaps the real game changer as they are lighter, use NATO ammo, run on diesel and are already deployed locally

If the Germans can be persuaded off the fence

 

[Red Leg]

That's flattering, and good for my ego.

But I'm not a silicon valley guy, I don't know the state of the art, and I'm not that smart, relatively speaking. No one would hire me to write that code. I could, given time, because I like coding, because every professional under 35 should have a working knowledge of it, because it's hugely important to job security. But I'm not good at it.

As for military applications, I have no real world experience. I know very little. But if, hypothetically, the Ukraine military came to me and said "we have 100k, but no real budget, let us kill tanks', those are the avenues I would pursue.

I can give you 90% of the performance, for 0.5% of the cost. But that's the modern military way. Except in the US, where being the best has a negative engagement factor on your opponents over and beyond the real world capabilities.

Your munitions are good, your training is excellent, but what really makes the USA better on the battlefield than the UK, or the Germans, or the Russians, has little to do with units mobilized, and everything to do with units technological capability. That's technology.

To whit. Is a Gen IV fighter worse than a Gen V? Yes.

Why. Is it faster, no. Is it more durable, no. Is it more manouverable, no, But it's sneaky, and the weapons are beyond horizon capable. Could you dogfight a F22 in a 1980's MIG15, absolutely, and it's a coin flip either way. But the F22 isn't designed to dogfight. If it's detected at all and there's any chance whatsoever of a missile lock or a visual gun solution, the pilot has screwed up, big time. In a competent engagement, the MiG doesn't know there's danger, till they die. The F22 can do that till they run out of armaments, No risk to airframe or pilot.

Same with the army. Bigger bang, no. Closer range bang, absolutely not. More accurate bang, yes.

Americans hate California. I get it. It's European, and screw those tax rates. But they drive US supremacy, as much as US manufacturing output did in the '40's.

Absolutely. My question was specific to this capability because we do not yet employ the technique.

Like the F22, the US Army's superiority in combined arms maneuver warfare is grounded in fully integrated situational awareness allowing maximum effective use of the maneuver capability, range and accuracy of its weapon systems. Every combat platform is equipped with FBCB2 (Blue Force Tracking) developed by Northrop Grumman (my old business unit). It allows a platoon, company, battalion, squadron and brigade commander to know in "now" time the exact the location of his platforms. It doesn't take much military training to realize the maneuver advantage that gives a force in a meeting engagement with an otherwise peer or near peer adversary. It conveys the ability to position fighting platforms in the most advantageous terrain to receive an attack or exploit an assault.

The screens also provide an opportunity to disperse real time intel on the location and movement of the enemy.

Fire support and Army attack aviation are fully integrated into that network. Where an infantry company may wait an hour for an airstrike, organic artillery fires, whether suppression or precision strike, or Apaches can hit the same target in minutes if not seconds.

During Desert Storm we had a single GPS per battalion and one in my vehicle in the brigade headquarters. They were a domed device that weighed almost twenty pounds. Those few hundred receivers in the two attacking Corps represented disruptive technology that allowed us to maneuver through the open desert in ways that were practically incomprehensible to the Iraqi Army negating whatever advantages might have been provided by their modern Soviet era equipment.

Situational awareness offered that same disruptive technology at the turn of this century. The new disruptive force is now the result of the small inexpensive UAV (drone). As I type this, a lot of work s going into swarm technology that would launch a cloud of long duration loitering munitions over a target area. Rather than have a ground based "pilot" guide each to a target (and susceptible to jamming), the munition would carry a library of targets and would attack on its own when one was identified. The British Brimstone missile uses an early version of this targeting concept.

Small reconnaissance UAVs using an integrated mapping technology to identify artillery target locations is something we had not embraced, relying on larger platforms capable of identifying a location with its on board GPS and laser. Appreciate the help in understanding how it might work.

 

[bowjijohn]

We hunters can now do much the same thing

e.g Leica Pro binoculars with built in GPS and compass

LR a downed animal and hey presto it appears as a waypoint on yer smartphone

Or am I missing something?

 

[Red Leg]

Why is it taking so long to get the Bradleys to Ukraine? Surely these things can be airlifted?

@bowjijohn has it exactly correct Kevin. Modern armored fighting vehicles require constant maintenance. Without an established, unit level spares inventory and trained mechanics, a Bradley would be down for something in a matter of days. The advanced sighting and target acquisition systems require very specialized maintenance and calibration, and again, availability of replacement LRUs.

The gun system is a dual feed design that feeds anti-personnel explosive rounds from one side and armor penetrating tungsten core rounds from the other. It takes a little time to fully train a gunner in its operation along with the TOW launcher system.

Finally, the reality is that 40 Brads are a drop in the requirement bucket. That inventory will only create a single mechanized battalion. They need 10X those numbers.

We hunters can now do much the same thing

e.g Leica Pro binoculars with built in GPS and compass

LR a downed animal and hey presto it appears as a waypoint on yer smartphone

Or am I missing something?

Exactly correct. The UAV always knows its location through GPS and bounces a laser off a target determining its exact location. That is transmitted to the firing battery digitally, and the the target serviced with the appropriate munition from the appropriate firing unit. I should note in the American Army this is done without human intervention in the kill chain. The commander establishes a priority of fires for particular maneuver elements, priority of targets for those fires, and a daily expenditure rate for ammunition type.

For instance, the UAV spots a group of soldiers in the open. It lases the target, and communicates with the AFATDS computer in the fire direction center.

"AFATDS prioritizes targets received from various sensors and performs attack analysis using situational data combined with commander’s guidance. The result is timely, accurate and coordinated fire support options to engage targets using Army, Marine, Navy and Air Force weapon systems. The system provides complete flexibility to manage attacks on pre-planned and time-sensitive targets."

Based on the commanders guidance, the AFATDS system sends the target instantly in this case to a 155mm battalion, which, in turn passes, it as a fire mission to one of its batteries. Let us say one round fire for effect. Each of the eight howitzers in the battery would receive the target coordinates (adjusted by the battalion fire direction computer and AFATDS slightly for each gun based upon target area size). The crew would load the appropriate round, the gun would slew to the target and each gun would fire. On the receiving end, 8 155mm rounds would arrive over a few seconds and detonate as low air bursts.

The Russians have nothing remotely like this capability.

 

[John Wasmuth]

I think it’s comical that people are really under the impression that the most corrupt law enforcement agency in the history of this country is actually going to do anything about The Pantscrapper in chief over his illegal possession of top secret material…..

 

[Wheels]

Situational awareness offered that same disruptive technology at the turn of this century. The new disruptive force is now the result of the small inexpensive UAV (drone). As I type this, a lot of work s going into swarm technology that would launch a cloud of long duration loitering munitions over a target area. Rather than have a ground based "pilot" guide each to a target (and susceptible to jamming), the munition would carry a library of targets and would attack on its own when one was identified. The British Brimstone missile uses an early version of this targeting concept.

Small reconnaissance UAVs using an integrated mapping technology to identify artillery target locations is something we had not embraced, relying on larger platforms capable of identifying a location with its on board GPS and laser. Appreciate the help in understanding how it might work.

The 2018 Winter Olympics were an epiphany for me. Drones formed the Olympic rings, ice skaters, downhill skiers, etc. My immediate thoughts were a terrorist group could rent a warehouse near Tinker AFB, launch a swarm of drones and take out our AWACS. I tried to explain how scary that was and my wife kept telling me to quite down, I was ruining the Olympic show.

Many of you knew drone military capabilities way before those Olympics but they were certainly eye opening for me.