Luxury goods sales slowing? Safari's next?

[Hornedfrogbbq]

Man maybe it is me but you see car loan defaults going up, fully 1/3 of student loans are 90 days deliquent and about to go into default, houshold credit card debt is back up and at all-time highs. Default rates on those credit cards are up. House pricing has narrowed affordability.



It seems to me that many things, especially luxury goods and travel, are getting more difficult and slowing. The safari business may slow in the next 12 months me thinks.

Thoughts?

 

[revturbo9967]

I would say most of the serious safari goers are not associated with bad debt. Most are very successful and know how to manage their money. Yes you may see a downturn of hunts booked in South Africa as they attract a different client, but I’d say over all, these hunts will stay steady.

 

[LivingTheDream]

I am seeing a few more cancellations than usual. I was at the Outer Banks ans they said fishing charters are down. The property manager said they are seeing more 5 day stays instead of the usual 7 days.

So I think there is a little belt tightening but people aren't necessarily stopping.

 

[JimP]

For most the Safaris are paid for with cash and no loan is taken out for them. It's something that people save up for to go on, not just a whim purchase like quite a few luxury goods are.

But from what I'm seeing the ones who are having the most problems managing their money are the gen z generation. They want everything that their parents have but don't want to wait for it so they just buy it on credit with no idea of how they are going to pay for it.

 

[Russ16]

I’ve seen the same signs as you. But I can’t reconcile it with my experience. As a frequent flyer the planes are full and it is lots of vacationers. Last Saturday the airport was a full as I’ve ever seen it with families going on leisure travel.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

Yea and I apologize, I'm not correlating bad debt or defaulted student loans with the folks that go on safari. That is just a more general issue...but it is those folks that buy services and products from business owners that DO make their money off of them.

The more direct analogy we are seeing are PE funds (really any funds) struggling to raise capital. High end houses not moving anywhere near as fast (probably interest rates have a heavy thumb on that) luxury goods like watches and purses that cost thousands to tens of thousands not selling and pricing being cut to try and drive revenue.

I do agree - the cat that pays for a safari with $100k in cash and uses his Purdy double rifle and his Rigby bolt gun probably isn't worried about his next meal. But it is just starting to feel a little more iffy to us on the economic front. At least down here in Texas, the pop in oil has been nice but the rig count is lower than it was a year ago and there is definite belt tightening around.

 

[Quest#1]

Late on my mortgage, car getting repossessed and credit cards are maxed out! Im still going on safari!!! All seriousness It’s unfortunate for some at the moment. I still see a a lot of stupid buying going on. E-commerce is still strong and I'm grateful for that…. Wheels up in 47 days.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

Late on my mortgage, car getting repossessed and credit cards are maxed out! Im still going on safari!!! All seriousness It’s unfortunate for some at the moment. I still see a a lot of stupid buying going on. E-commerce is still strong and I'm grateful for that…. Wheels up in 47 days.

We're 57 days from being in the concession but tripping around before that for a couple of weeks. I'm like a little kid..."how many more sleeps before Christmas" kinda feeling.

 

[revturbo9967]

Right now I have 2 booked safaris with a 3rd hunt in the works. I feel like its all about money management, not how the economy is doing.

It also has nothing to do with what you make, more to do with what you owe.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

Right now I have 2 booked safaris with a 3rd hunt in the works. I feel like its all about money management, not how the economy is doing.

It also has nothing to do with what you make, more to do with what you owe.

I had a girlfriend say that to me once.

 

[Doug3006]

I think Boddington said that you don’t meet many failures around Safari campfires.

 

[Alistair]

I personally think Safari's will be minimally effected by all the factors you mention, as will most 'genuine' luxury stuff.

What (IMO) will be impacted is the aspirational, fake luxury stuff that young, poor people buy on credit to try and get laid. Apple products, fancy TVs, entry level luxury cars, Gucci, etc.

Why do I think that? Well, genuine luxury things like Safaris are generally bought by people who are both well off, and well into their middle age.

Look at this forum.

A sweeping, but accurate summation of the demographic here could be shared thusly; Male, 45-75, upper middle class. I'd say that sums up roughly 85% of all regular commenters.

There's some exceptions. I'm 29 for instance. But I'd be astonished if I wasn't in the lowest 5th percentile for age on this forum. The 45-75 range in my summary above most likely has more outliers who are older, than outliers who are younger.

Same with economic status. There's a few 'less well off' folks who worked really, really hard to afford their safaris, just as there's a smattering of 'very affluent' folks, but again, they're the exception, not the rule. I'd estimate that the number of people on this forum who DON'T have a six figure annual income is pretty small. Yet that's the top 25% of all Americans...

This demographic (fairly old, fairly well off) is almost entirely insulated from the factors you mention.

Car loans? Not a financial stressor. Probably they paid cash for their vehicle. If they do have a car loan, it's coming out of discretionary money and they've taken it due to attractive interest rates, not because they didn't have the cash to pay outright.

Student loans? Most here are old enough that they never had one, those that did, paid it off decades ago.

House affordability? At most they're paying a mortgage on a fixed rate, most have a fully paid off house which they bought for basically nothing in the '80's. Rising property values is for the most part a 'plus', property tax impact exempted of course.

For many, they're not going to care if the entire economy takes a dump. They're retired, not like they can get laid off, and whilst stock market performance might impact their retirement draw down, most have enough cash there to do some active management, so... eh.

Personally, I'd be a lot more worried about the impact to all-inclusive vacations to Disney World, or Florida, or Cancun, than I would be about Safaris. Not to mention base model BMW's, Gucci anything, Apple anything, maybe Rolexes.

 

[375Fox]

My first international hunt after college was to New Zealand in 2016. I got a very good deal because oil was down and he didn’t have the bookings that year. Certain hunts and certain outfitters I think are somewhat recession proof. The newest outfitters and those offering the lowest price package hunts to bring in new clients I think are always at risk. Established outfitters operating in good areas with repeat clientele are in a much better spot and have more flexibility on rates.

I see the mention of Gen Z here. I’d be classed as a millennial. I don’t think debt and poor money choices are as generational as some older members might think. I see younger people think a lot more about buying a car vs the experience it might cost them. Different set of priorities. The number of people that can afford a ridiculous 5 year car loan but say a safari is out of reach makes no sense to me. Same applies here with individuals buying expensive rifles but going on the lowest cost hunts. Makes no sense to me.

 

[SRvet]

Oddly enough I was talking to a PH about a possible hunt next year and he had detected a similar economic change. A general tightening of belts was mentioned.

 

[deewayne2003]

I think the real slow down in Safaris will come in 10 years when the old guard of the baby boomers starts to die off; combine that with the insolvency date for social security being moved up to 2034.

There are far less Gen Z that are interested in Safaris even amongst the ones that are born into generational wealth.

 

[wesheltonj]

The carriage trade has very little slowing.

 

[Elkeater]

I am classed as a millennial at 35 years old. I think poor money management is 100% across the board through all generations. I see young 20 year olds that are very responsible and doing well for their age and I see 40 something’s that complain they can’t afford a house and they are broke and they have nothing despite a decent wage job. They spend frivolously or waste it on things that don’t matter. I’ve seen older people I their 70s that could easily go on any hunt they wanted and folks in their 70s still working living pay check to paycheck. It all comes down to priorities.

For me personally I only buy vehicles when I absolutely have to because the old one dies. I’ve never let an auto loan go to full term. My last one I paid off in 6 months. I don’t live beyond my means at all. I know how much I make and we don’t spend that much. I don’t eat out more than once a month. I paid off all my student loan debt within 3 years of graduation because I got a useful degree. I bought my house when interest rates were low and have that locked in. I move money into high yield savings accounts and retirement accounts. And if I want a new rifle I save for it and when we planned our first safari I worked overtime and saved for it so that it would not impact our lives financially in the slightest.

I’m seeing a dip in luxury items at this point. The cost of living is catching up to people. However I think the average person that goes on a safari will probably be just fine because they are they type of person that has learned to manage money decently well even if they aren’t rich. I do think some of the guided North American hunts like elk and such may take a hit because of (in my opinion) how overpriced they are. I could be wrong there though.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

I am classed as a millennial at 35 years old. I think poor money management is 100% across the board through all generations. I see young 20 year olds that are very responsible and doing well for their age and I see 40 something’s that complain they can’t afford a house and they are broke and they have nothing despite a decent wage job. They spend frivolously or waste it on things that don’t matter. I’ve seen older people I their 70s that could easily go on any hunt they wanted and folks in their 70s still working living pay check to paycheck. It all comes down to priorities.

For me personally I only buy vehicles when I absolutely have to because the old one dies. I’ve never let an auto loan go to full term. My last one I paid off in 6 months. I don’t live beyond my means at all. I know how much I make and we don’t spend that much. I don’t eat out more than once a month. I paid off all my student loan debt within 3 years of graduation because I got a useful degree. I bought my house when interest rates were low and have that locked in. I move money into high yield savings accounts and retirement accounts. And if I want a new rifle I save for it and when we planned our first safari I worked overtime and saved for it so that it would not impact our lives financially in the slightest.

I’m seeing a dip in luxury items at this point. The cost of living is catching up to people. However I think the average person that goes on a safari will probably be just fine because they are they type of person that has learned to manage money decently well even if they aren’t rich. I do think some of the guided North American hunts like elk and such may take a hit because of (in my opinion) how overpriced they are. I could be wrong there though.

I told my daughters growing up "put debt on assets that appreciate and not on assets that depreciate." Car debt is anathma to me.

 

[Hogpatrol]

To the OP, For those I see not making a first or returning trip, money's not an issue. It's their health. For boomers, this is the elephant in the room. At our gun club, I see guys younger than me by a decade who are lucky to make it there and sit at a bench for a couple hours behind their $5k+ target rifles. They just can't hump the woods and fields anymore and have quit hunting altogether.

 

[Shako Badhan]

I think it’s a fair point to say that the cost of living at least in the states has gone up quite a bit in the last few years. But I think a far greater threat to the Safari industry in social pressure.

As hunters “retire” from the hunting Africa as it stands they will not be replaced by following generations as has happened in the past. In the U.S. hunting culture for those looking to pay good money for a guided hunt of some kind is fixated back country hunting backed up by powerful marketing campaigns.

Additionally it’s become socially unacceptable in many circles to hunt and hunt Africa especially, this is just a fact. I think Field Ethos and some other publications have had a huge impact on getting younger people interested in hunting Africa.

I’m also surprised how many fellow millennials here are on AH. So many there is hope.