Politics

[Ray B]

A B2 bombing run on the two Iranian sites would best be a one shot deal that completely eliminates the facilities. Conventional explosives are a one time release of energy that blows stuff up but may be incomplete in destruction. As such, I'm wondering if once the perimeter, in this case 300 feet of dirt, concrete and rebar is breached a supplemental means of destruction might add insurance to the effort. Possibly a third "bomb" that followed into the hole made by the two MOABs that consisted of several tons of thermite or something similar that would raise the temperature in the hole to sufficient levels to melt, burn or otherwise remove the structural integrity of anything in the facilities.

 

[skydiver386]

A B2 bombing run on the two Iranian sites would best be a one shot deal that completely eliminates the facilities. Conventional explosives are a one time release of energy that blows stuff up but may be incomplete in destruction. As such, I'm wondering if once the perimeter, in this case 300 feet of dirt, concrete and rebar is breached a supplemental means of destruction might add insurance to the effort. Possibly a third "bomb" that followed into the hole made by the two MOABs that consisted of several tons of thermite or something similar that would raise the temperature in the hole to sufficient levels to melt, burn or otherwise remove the structural integrity of anything in the facilities.

I think your assessment is at least partially accurate.

First, all of the sand and rock over the site has to be penetrated, along with the concrete structure. Then once you have a hole, a follow on device within the structure will be needed to destroy the centrifuges, etc.

Remember , the Iranians are World leaders in armored concrete construction.

If what we know about these sites is accurate, it's going to take more than one shot to do the job. If these facilities are as deep and armored as I think they are, 2 or 3 MOP's will not be enough. It will likely take a series of bombs to dig deeper and deeper till the target is exposed and destroyed.

I believe these sites are twice as deep as we think, and far better protected.

I don't think the MOP is going to work as well as we think.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

At the very least it sounds like we should be overly prepared in the extreme. Expect the worst and act accordingly

 

[Red Leg]

A B2 bombing run on the two Iranian sites would best be a one shot deal that completely eliminates the facilities. Conventional explosives are a one time release of energy that blows stuff up but may be incomplete in destruction. As such, I'm wondering if once the perimeter, in this case 300 feet of dirt, concrete and rebar is breached a supplemental means of destruction might add insurance to the effort. Possibly a third "bomb" that followed into the hole made by the two MOABs that consisted of several tons of thermite or something similar that would raise the temperature in the hole to sufficient levels to melt, burn or otherwise remove the structural integrity of anything in the facilities.

I think your assessment is at least partially accurate.

First, all of the sand and rock over the site has to be penetrated, along with the concrete structure. Then once you have a hole, a follow on device within the structure will be needed to destroy the centrifuges, etc.

Remember , the Iranians are World leaders in armored concrete construction.

If what we know about these sites is accurate, it's going to take more than one shot to do the job. If these facilities are as deep and armored as I think they are, 2 or 3 MOP's will not be enough. It will likely take a series of bombs to dig deeper and deeper till the target is exposed and destroyed.

I believe these sites are twice as deep as we think, and far better protected.

I don't think the MOP is going to work as well as we think.

The six deploying B-2's are capable of carrying 2 GBU-57 weapons each. Assuming they are, and further assuming the targeting team has developed targets based on two devices per target then six separate areas of the complex can be targeted.

The "bomb" is actually a penetrating vehicle to deliver a 5,342 pound explosive compound deep into a target. The idea is that the mountain would have a huge tamping effect on the explosion sending a catastrophic blast wave through any open spaces within the blast area. I anticipate that is exactly what would happen. I would also expect significant tunnel collapse in the areas affected by the blast.

Based on Israeli performance to date in exploiting their intelligence on Iran, I would anticipate that they have millimeter accurate blueprints of the site.

All that said, we have zero actual combat experience with this particular weapon. Something is always learned during initial employment.

 

[Altitude sickness]

You and I are in agreement on everything in your post, but it still does not answer the real question that is central to the debate.

Did Israel start this war never having made any attempt to create a method for destroying Iran's nuclear weapons production, but instead has known they will need the United States to do the job?

To directly answer the question "What is your responsibility to your people? What actions can you take?

The primary responsibility of any head of state is to protect the people of that state. Providing the equipment and training for your armed forces is the most basic component of an armed defense.

Having allies is always advisable, but have a plan to fill the gap if those allies are unwilling or unable to come to your defense.

To leave your security to others with no alternative plan is not good leadership.

If I were responsible for a plan to take out Iran's nuclear weapons development program, here is what I'd propose. You need 3 things, a weapon capable of deep penetration and explosive power, a vehicle to deliver it to the target area, and possibly a guidance system. One component will obviously decide the feasibility of the other components.

Israel has no ballistic missiles or bombers capable of lifting the type of weapon we are talking about. Israel DOES have the 103rd heavy lift Squadron that has at least 7 C130-J30 Super Hercules. If my information is correct, these have a max lift of 45,000lbs. Not ideal, but a viable platform similar to that used for the 15,000lb BLU-82 Daisy Cutter.
View attachment 694008
View attachment 694009
The bomb itself could be similar to our MOP, but I would go in a different direction. Rather than use high altitude and inertia, I think explosive velocity would be far superior. The MOP has a velocity of 1450fps. Comp B and other explosives can do over 10X that.

In the U.S. inventory we use M3E2 40lb shape charges for demolition work. These are placed on a small steel stand to provide a standoff that gives the copper lined warhead the distance to form into a carrot shaped projectile. These shape charges create a hole that is then filled with the ANFO explosive I mentioned earlier. The copper coned shape charge, usually in tandem, is exactly what we use to defeat tank armor. Depending on soil composition, a 40lb shape charge can penetrate 15-25ft.
View attachment 694014
BTW, most so called "Experts" will tell you that shape charges form a jet, and this jet penetrates the target. This is false. I have in my personal collection several of the copper carrot shaped projectiles I recovered from Coleman Demolition Range on FBNC. It is a copper projectile travelling nearly 15,000fps that provides the penetration. A high pressure jet does follow the projectile and increases the size of the hole in many cases.

Using these same principles, we simply scale thing up. I would use 6ft diameter steel pipe, load a copper cone tandem shape charge into the pipe with a standoff fuze extender.
View attachment 694013
What we will have built is a 1,828mm, 15,000lb tandem shape charge bomb with a projectile travelling 15-20,000fps!

Nothing the Iranians have built would stand up to this. Two or three of these on any given target would no only penetrate the best concrete Iran has, but destroy anything under it.

Israel has built Merkava tanks, so forging a copper cone and loading it into a steel pipe should present no great challenge.

Israel has Parachute Riggers familiar with airdrops similar to this, so the airdrop platform is not beyond their present capabilities.

Israel also has guidance systems that could be adapted to this project. Unguided versions could still be successful, but calculate 3X the number would be needed.

The obvious question is why didn't we build something like this? The answer is because we wouldn't use a slow non stealth aircraft when we have higher altitude capable B2 Spirit bombers. If israel is left with no how and no way to do it, this is the path I'd take.

We always described them as burning at a high rate of speed melting the inner lining. Forming, first a jet. Then a slug or carrot of material.
Making a typical explosive sound mixed with the metallic ping of armor or metal being penetrated at a very high speed. They come in sizes from a roll of quarters, a beer can size with wire legs. On up.

What’s interesting and amazing is they need no backing or tamping. Just a tiny little device designed to direct all the energy one way.

We would lay linear versions on all sorts of objects to play and learn. Like a 250 oxygen bottle cut cleanly in two, length wise. Cleaner than a water jet.

The Navy was generous enough to sink a ship for us to experiment with different designs and devices. It killed fish. But didn’t piss off the local town people as did cooking off charges on military bases. No matter how large the base was. You still got complaints.


Red Leg, I was guessing the same. That amount of energy directed downward. With 200-300 feet of mountain tamping behind it. Would send one hell of a shockwave downward. 6 of those would be hard to withstand.

But. I hope Israel does it with Mossad. I don’t underestimate their capabilities.

 

[Wheels]

As an individual who’s demolition experience topped out with M80’s, I find the Fordow topic interesting and educational.

The cumulative knowledge and experience on AH always amazes me. Thanks for all your input.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

As an individual who’s demolition experience topped out with M80’s, I find the Fordow topic interesting and educational.

The cumulative knowledge and experience on AH always amazes me. Thanks for all your input.

Any worries at all about tomorrow Wheels?

 

[cwpayton]

I am intrigued by the idea of a shaped charge.

Let me put on my corporate vice president's hat and offer some practical considerations and observations that I would suggest to my bright engineers when they would come in with an idea for a development project for the US armed forces. This doesn't mean that I reject the idea, but I do have some questions.

Fordow is the key Iranian enrichment site. It is literally 300 feet deep inside a mountain and made up of thousands of feet of excavated concrete reinforced tunnels and rooms. On what flat surface do you intend to land your giant shaped charge to insure its linear driven projectile and jet reach the intended target that deep in the ground? I presume one would be forced to use a stand off sensor to trigger the device?

The actual targets are tunnel complexes. Let's say the charge is somehow so accurately placed, so accurately aimed regardless of ground slope, and so powerful that it would actually penetrate and hit that small a target - then what? I will not argue that the immediate area around the penetration hole would indeed be a mess, but the explosively formed projectile (EFP) would continue on its straight line path until it dissipated. The tunnel might not even collapse. I would suggest the difference between the effect of a jet slicing through a tunnel in such a complex and that of the 5K explosive payload of a deep penetrator exploding within the same target would be rather dramatically different.

How would a C-130 survive such a flight to dump the shaped charge out the rear of the aircraft? Air superiority achieved with an F-35 or F-15 safely at 40k feet means something entirely different for a four engine turbo prop lumbering along at 20,000 feet.

I am an old airborne guy as well and spent quite a bit of time around Sicily DZ trying to get heavy ordnance safely on the ground. I understand that the para-bomb would be falling faster than my HMMWV was, but I still question the guidance system or parachute that could place such an object that accurately in exactly the right place, at exactly the right attack angle (remember this is a mountain) to hit a target that deep.

With the MOP, the aircraft only has to provide a precise aiming point. With the shaped charge, not only does the aircraft require an aiming point of great precision, but so does the shaped charge itself.

I suspect Israel has a plan to attempt to deal with Fordow. They have clearly determined that it is higher risk alternative than allowing the US to do it with the B2 and MOPs. It will be interesting to see how long they will wait.

While Trump dithers or evaluates or decides, and Isreal waits, what I wonder about is what China is doing flying in and out of Iran, possible hauling out enriched uranium or uranium stock and other useful materials from fordow . they are definitely up to something no good.
As for the c130 delivery system I do think its way too slow, between 370 and 415, and I doubt that is with full cargo loadout. BUT if they are left with no other options ? what is the rock composition of the ground at fodow granite, limestone, ? that also makes a big difference

 

[barryk]

As an individual who’s demolition experience topped out with M80’s, I find the Fordow topic interesting and educational.

The cumulative knowledge and experience on AH always amazes me. Thanks for all your input.

As a former Marine combat engineer with some explosive experience (training not combat), I also find these discussions most informing and interesting.

 

[cwpayton]

Legitimate questions.

First, you have to understand how a shape charge and it's fuzing work. Let's take the Russian RPG7 as an example.
View attachment 694031
In the nose, we have a piezoelectric fuze that when crushed, generates an electric current. Tank armor is universally sloped, but presents no problem for this type of fuze, and it will function under all but the most shallow angle. This electric current detonates an electric blasting cap at the back or base of the explosive charge. In the case of our aerial bomb, it would be top dead center.
View attachment 694035
As simple fuze extender/standoff mounted to the nose as pictured above would easily provide the distance needed for the projectile to form. These standoff fuzes were used in the mountains of Vietnam with no issues.

The warhead itself also has no issues with sloped armor or angled target materials A copper lined explosive formed shape charge does not depend on flat surfaces to work. As a matter of fact, it is specifically designed to defeat angled or sloped armored targets.

Think tank warfare and the effects that the older generation BGM72 TOW missile had on armored vehicles. It was not the modern top attack version, but was aimed at the hull or turret of the tank, and used a fuzing system similar to what I've described. Not only would it penetrate the armor of all Soviet tanks of the 1970's, but destroyed everything in the interior of the vehicle. All of this with an explosive charge of no more than a few pounds. The munition I'm suggesting would have a charge weight of over 12,000 pounds.

A parachute extraction system would be used simply to do that one task, ie extract the pallet loaded ordinance from the rear ramp of the delivery aircraft and separate it from it's pallet.

Any number of steering fin configurations could be used along with GPS, laser, and other guidance systems. We have used bolt on fin and nose kits to turn dumb MK82 bombs into guided munitions for years now. In Ukraine they have even used miles of fiber optic cable to guide drones. I can think of a huge list of ways to guide this to it's target.

The delivery aircraft would be the vulnerable part of the entire project. I have been open about this from the beginning. Such a mission could only be considered in an environment where enemy air defenses had been largely neutralized. Fighter escorts would obviously be a given and extensive efforts would be needed to supress any ground based air defense forces. This seems to be the current enemy situation in Iran.

Even then, maximum altitude and airspeed would be a good idea. The specific models that Israel has are capable of 420mph at 30,000ft. The current record is 36,500ft, but this would not be sustainable for this type of mission.

the pic of the refueling boom , brought back a memory, when I made airman of the month or some such thing, I was given an orientation flight on a KC 135 we refueled a flight of F-15,s , I was given the opportunity to "fly" the boom, laying on your stomach, great fun and exciting compared to sitting in front of a radar screen.

 

[Wheels]

Any worries at all about tomorrow Wheels?

I definitely have worries. I also feel like we are the better team, especially at home, so I am cautiously confident. That said the better team doesn’t always win. Fingers crossed.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

I definitely have worries. I also feel like we are the better team, especially at home, so I am cautiously confident. That said the better team doesn’t always win. Fingers crossed.

The one I would worry about is Siakam. He has had some quiet games. He has also carried them at times. He had the title with Toronto - and he had a large role in that. I am a big believer that experience goes a long way in situations like this.

That said I believe you guys are large favorites. But I didn't think it would go 7.

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[USN]

We have attacked Iran. God Bless our military.

 

[USN]

View attachment 694095

We won’t be needing Hillary

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[wesheltonj]

So much for two weeks. No TACO.

 

[Brent in Az]

Hopefully, we can get a legitimate, and accurate, damage report on Fordow.

 

[Brent in Az]

The media will need a new shiny object to focus on.

 

[Brent in Az]

Democrats send them money, Trump bombs the shit out of them.

Trump to address the nation 10:00p.m est.