Interesting assessment of tariffs from Brookings (generally speaking a fairly "centrist" think tank.. used almost as often by the right as the left).. This was written in early February when the threat of 25% tariffs and retaliation of 25% tariffs from Mexico and Canada were first getting discussed..
Theres no such thing as a non biased think tank.. but I think Brookings is going to be about as close as you can find..
Bottom line up front, their assessment is.. everyone will feel some pain... but Mexico and Canada will feel substantially more than the US will..
For example.. the impact of MX and CA tariffs on US GDP = 0.32 reduction.. while the impact of the US tariffs on MX and CA will be -3.14 and -3.02 respectively (mind you Canada's GDP already fell more than 1% last year without the new tariffs.. and Mexico only grew by .9 last year)...
Impact on jobs in the US = -0.25... while the impact on jobs in MX and CA will be -3.61 and -2.46 respectively.
Joshua P. Meltzer analyzes the effects of tariffs on economic growth, jobs, exports, and inflation in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
www.brookings.edu
Trudeau did some pretty tough talking this morning.. Pretty easy for him to do knowing he doesn't have a job in the very near future.. and Im not sure he has ever really cared a whole lot about the Canadian economy or the typical Canadian worker.. from the far away view of an American that is well south of the Canadian border he seemed to only really care about far left agenda items and social welfare programs.. I have a feeling if whoever replaces him doesn't make some moves pretty fast to get things resolved, they might find Canadians getting pretty pissed off pretty quickly..
A dump of .25 in the US unemployment rate sucks.. but with unemployment currently sitting at about 4% here, .25 isn't a huge bump to the needle.. with Canada currently sitting at 6.6% unemployment, tacking on another 2.4% is going to mean Canada will have almost 1 out of every 11 workers living on the govt dole..
Similar story for Mexico.. their published unemployment rate is only 2.6% right now (they calculate unemployment differently than the US.. but it is a low number nonetheless.. )... but tack an additional 3.61% and suddenly unemployment over doubles..
Much like the situation in Ukraine, we can spend the next few days/weeks/months pointing fingers, trying to place blame, crying, bitching, and moaning... but I think the time for that has likely passed..
If the CA, MX, and US govt actually care about their people.. less bitching and blaming and more problem solving is probably in order.. and probably needs to be a priority..
fullfact.org
