Politics

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I dont doubt that things like you are describing with the lumber industry are true.. but those sort of things have always been true.. NAFTA was actually supposed to shore a lot of that sort of stuff up (in addition to reducing tariffs) and make it easier to have cross border commerce across several industries..

I think what this is all coming down to is, whether the real motivating factor is the difference or fairness in trade practices, or border security, or drugs, or anything else really doesn't matter..

Trump hasn't liked NAFTA since the last time around.. He tried pretty hard to renegotiate it the last time he was in office but didn't have support of our congress, and his last Secretary of Commerce (Ross), while arguably a brilliant man, wasn't exactly the aggressive type while in office or even very assertive on most things.. Trump wants NAFTA completely overhauled (or thrown out.. which is why he wanted a sunset clause included the last time.. he wanted the ability to walk away from it if it continued to not work in the US's interests).. and he's going to do everything he can this time around to make that happen... if he can use "security" as a legitimate claim for invoking the clause (there is no denying that criminals, drugs, etc have come across both the northern and southern border at an alarming rate for the last 4 years and that our country feels like it is in crisis now trying to get both the illegal migrants, criminals, and dope rounded up and expelled from the country), then he's going to do it..

The mid terms, if they don't go his way could impact that quite a bit.. Congress doesn't really get to "vote" on the trade agreement, but they can absolutely throw plenty of obstacles at any move the POTUS might try to make..

But right now he has the house, the senate, the judiciary, and the Whitehouse.. between now and the next 22 months he is going to be a force to be reckoned with, whether the rest of the world (and 1/2 of the American people) like it or not..

and if the mid terms do go his way... the world better be ready for it.. he literally, at that point has nothing to lose at all.. no reason to be cautious with anything.. and no reason to be conciliatory.. he will have been reaffirmed by the American people and be convinced that everything he wants and that he is doing is correct/right and supported by the citizens..

I doesn’t matter if he liked it or not he agreed and signed it. If he wants to renegotiate wait until the the date he agreed and signed to renegotiate it.

Between the Ukraine fiasco and the economic war he’s starting from an outsiders prospective it looks as though he isn’t a man of his word.

As for national security how does opening the door for Chinese investment in Canada good for U.S. national security. There is already talk of Chinese investment in trans Canada pipelines in the oil sector.

 

[mdwest]

Closer to home for me , currently the U.S. buys 3.6 billion worth of Canadian sea food.

Lobster is the one I know the most about so I’ll stick with that. Chinese buyers literally sit in trucks on our wharf and try for business yet we continue to export lobsters to buyers mostly in Boston. It’s not because we don’t have the market it’s because we have generation of business history with the Boston seafood markets.

The problem is you are citing smaller scale markets that don't have huge scale impact on American consumers..

the things that are going to matter are:

Crude Oil: $98B
Automobiles: $35B
Machinery: $34B
Mineral Fuels and Distillation Products: $128B

Assume the prices of those sort of things go up 25% to compensate for the tariff.. so the US stops purchasing those things from Canada and relies on other sources...

The Chinese may well buy every bit of crude oil that Canada will sell them (if Canada thinks selling crude to China is in its national interests..)..

But the Chinese arent going to be buying Canadian manufactured cars, machinery, or even most mineral fuels..

So who are they getting sold to?

Africa isn't a big consumer.. neither is Asia (outside of China).. Europe already has sources for those materials (they also purchase quite a bit of those items from Canada already and don't need more of them)...

The impact on Canadas economy will be very noticeable, very fast..

And Trump knows this...

I think Canada probably has some room to negotiate.. I sadly just don't think the Trudeau govt has the skills or ability to do it, and since they are on the way out anyway, don't have much desire to try.. they'll just blame any problems Canada is having on Trump rather than acknowledge any responsibility or blame of their own... and the new government will be left trying to pick up the pieces..

Mexico on the other hand I think is going to have a much harder time.. The southern border is clearly a much bigger problem than the northern one.. and the trade deficits with Mexico are much worse, with Mexico not producing as many truly critical infrastructure items like crude, mineral fuels, etc as Canada..

 

[mdwest]

I doesn’t matter if he liked it or not he agreed and signed it. If he wants to renegotiate wait until the the date he agreed and signed to renegotiate it.

Between the Ukraine fiasco and the economic war he’s starting from an outsiders prospective it looks as though he isn’t a man of his word.

As for national security how does opening the door for Chinese investment in Canada good for U.S. national security. There is already talk of Chinese investment in trans Canada pipelines in the oil sector.

youre missing the point..

it doesnt matter if he signed it... CANADA and MEXICO and the US all agreed to the terms.. and the terms include a clause that allows him to do what he is doing in the interest of security..

whether the US and Canada agree or disagree on the economic side of things is inconsequential..

as long Trump can point to a porus border and claim it is a security issue, he has no requirement to wait to renegotiate..

Canada has given him the opportunity to do it right now..

that's simply the truth/fact whether anyone (you or me for that matter) like it..

this is why contracts are important and dredded attorneys are vital to the process..

Im pretty sure teams of attorneys on both sides of the border have been scrubbing NAFTA and every other "agreement" ever created between the US and Canada right now to determine their paths..

 

[YancyW]

National right track/wrong track polling is still at record high. With Trump you can see a divergence between job approve and the overall perception of direction of the country, having said that the slippage in his approvals the media is keying in on is well within any normal margin or standard variation.

 

[MauserM03Blog]

you make a post about narrow mindedness...

then follow up with a post clearly demonstrating that you are narrow minded...

Per the Merriam Webster Dictionary: not willing to accept opinions, beliefs, behaviors, etc. that are unusual or different from one's own : not open-minded

how cute!

Where in my request for your further commentary did I criticise your earlier work? Nowhere!

I’m the last person you can call narrow minded, especially in this place. Sheesh.

Lighten up guys.

 

[ActionBob]

If you're bitching about the POSSIBILITY of inflation tomorrow... where were you in 2022 when inflation was 8%? or 2023 when it was 4.1% (GDP growth was only 2.3% so inflation was still significantly high).. or 2024 when inflation was 2.9% (a very good number based on historical values.. but still outpaced our GDP in 2024 which was only 2.8%)...

Youve been here since 2023... show me a post since your arrival where you complained about the Biden administrations actions that impacted our economy... Ill be happy to eat some crow if you can deliver one..

Yes this really did hurt most!

I still think a lot of the rise in the stock market was adjusting for inflation. Especially with companies that have a lot of hard assets. Exceptions abound of course... But markets went up and buying power dropped precipitously.

I'm quite sure Trump's First term Tarriffs started some inflation. But the real impact came from Biden's policies of absolute insane levels of Government spending and increasing the money supply artificially (not through real economic growth).

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

youre missing the point..

it doesnt matter if he signed it... CANADA and MEXICO and the US all agreed to the terms.. and the terms include a clause that allows him to do what he is doing in the interest of security..

whether the US and Canada agree or disagree on the economic side of things is inconsequential..

as long Trump can point to a porus border and claim it is a security issue, he has no requirement to wait to renegotiate..

Canada has given him the opportunity to do it right now..

that's simply the truth/fact whether anyone (you or me for that matter) like it..

this is why contracts are important and dredded attorneys are vital to the process..

Im pretty sure teams of attorneys on both sides of the border have been scrubbing NAFTA and every other "agreement" ever created between the US and Canada right now to determine their paths..

I’ve got great respect for you as a fellow forum member and value your opinions very much but on this we’re going to have to agree to disagree. From where I’m sitting he went back on his word then after the fact used a security clause to justify it.

 

[sgt_zim]

Zelensky showed an honesty, integrity and courage the like of which most of us, under such pressure, could not muster

They are the qualities that build nations

Perhaps we might all try not to confuse strength with inherited power and abuse of privilege

Trump did the American people no favours

What he showed me was he was Jonesing for his next bowl of blow.

All he had to do was STFU.

 

[MauserM03Blog]

Pretty big deal.

The Taiwanese better start learning to speak Chinese.

 

[sgt_zim]

I don't believe people should agree with me. I believe you and I are on the same page in this respect. People should assess carefully prepared and responsibly presented analysis, from a multiple of sources depending on the importance of the matter, and decide on what their actions will be. I used this process to advise my government. Not enough people follow this method though. They keep listening to news that suits their mood, in echo chambers. Not good. Nor is having leaders who surround themselves with sycophants and loyalists, as per Putin in Russia and now Trump in the US.

Socialism is a word Americans use for what everyone else calls cooperation.

If you're not seeing clear information about rapidly increasing temperatures and the effects, you might be in an echo chamber.

What am I doing? At the personal level, through design and effort our household uses a fraction of the energy, water and fuel compared with our neighbours. My wife and I went blue-water sailing after retiring. That helped us hone our skills in conserving resources. Our adult children see the point and cooperate (sorry, that should be socialismate).

At a community level, I am developing a platform which will encourage and enable city dwellers to personally contact and sponsor farmers, who will plant trees in their name. City folk will be able to personally offset carbon emissions they cannot presently avoid, such as from air travel or driving classic cars. Having a tree or many with your name on it will mean more to people than paying a random, voluntary or mandatory carbon offset charge. Farmers will have a new source of income, from the payments and from the timber down the track. Some farmers will find it more lucrative than running cattle or sheep, especially when manufactured meat disrupts the livestock industry and rural land prices fall. Ooof.

Leading by example? Perhaps.

More like...

 

[Brent in Az]

Trump will convene a meeting with his national security advisory team on March 3rd, to discuss the possibility of cutting off aid to the Ukraine.

I'll get the popcorn ready.......

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

The Taiwanese better start learning to speak Chinese.

That could be one way of interpreting it. But are they moving their entire operations to the US? I didn’t get that out that statement but I guess it could be a prelude.

 

[spike.t]

Scott Bessent continues to impress...

Some very salient points from his interview on Meet the Press..

The D's ran on "the economy is fine"... but here we are just 45 days into a new administration and the left is pointing out all sorts of problems with the economy (10 yrs are too high! prices are too high! interest rates are too high!) and trying to make issue of the fact that the new administration hasn't fixed the problems clearly created by decisions made by the prior administration..

Treasury Secretary says Ukraine economic deal is not on the table after Zelenskyy "chose to blow that up"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an economic deal with Ukraine is not currently on the table after a contentious Oval Office meeting.

www.cbsnews.com

also of interest.. Mexico is now offering to match US tariffs on China.. that's a pretty smart move on their part I think.. that's a palatable bargaining chip for the US considering lower (or no) new tariffs on Mexico, which is something we know the Mexicans really don't want...

He's also very clear that the prior "economic deal" offered to Ukraine is now off the table at least for the time being.. we're back to square one..


I'm going to keep advising.. watch Bessent and watch Lutnick closely.. those are two beasts in the administration that wont get the same attention Rubio, Hegseth, et al will get.. but have the ability to seriously change the game in a positive way on the economic side of the house if we can keep the politicians and the media out of the way..

Nice for China when they are building factories etc in Mexico at an Olympic 100 metre sprint equivalent.....

 

[Doubleplay]

you do realize the entire point of the tariffs is to force the other side into giving something up, rather than actually leaving a long term tariff in place don't you?

do you seriously believe that Canada and Mexico have the economic means to weather the storm longer or better than the US?

have you done any research or understand the trade deficit between the US and Canada or the US and Mexico? or understand the difference in how each of the three countries economies are underpinned?

Trump has been clear in telling Mexico and Canada what he wants..

Neither Mexico or Canada has complied (although they have admittedly taken some steps in the direction requested)..

Mexico in particular has tried some creative negotiating.. they're offering to match US tariffs against China in exchange for some relief on US tariffs intended for Mexico..

Left leaning economists are crying that the US economy is going to suffer, that your 401K is going to suffer, etc..etc..

While right leaning economists are saying it is highly unlikely that there will be any measurable impact on prices or investment accounts.. they point to Trump 45 and the tariffs imposed the last time around, and while they admit they were only moderately effective, they also very clearly demonstrate the stock market (and therefore investment accounts like 401K's and IRA's) performing at record highs through the entire administration..

But lets assume you're correct.. and the Paul Krugmans and Oliver Blanchards of the world have called this one right and the stock market drops for a year.. maybe even two... (I'll remind you that the market performed the worst it had since the recession of 2008 in 2021 when Biden took office, continued to under perform in 2022, continued to perform poorly for most of 2023, and only started to look reasonably healthy for the second half of 23 and all of 24.. well after COVID was a thing of the past and economists on BOTH the left and right agreed COVID had no longer been a relevant factor in stock market performance).. but again.. lets assume the Mexicans and Canadians hold out for an entire 2 years.. and the cost of maple syrup and fruits and vegetables go up a full 15%...

What exactly do you think will be happening at the same time in Mexico and Canada?

So when the Mexican government and Canadian government has no choice but to capitulate (both have admitted they don't have the ability to offset US consumption of their goods in European or Asian markets.. that they will take an economic beat down over this).. what do you think happens then to the US economy?

If you are adamant that prices are going to go up because of US tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods...

Do you not believe the opposite is true once we not only remove our tariffs on their goods, but they remove the tariffs on the goods that they have had in place for decades as well?

And do you not believe that holding the Mexicans and Canadians accountable for their role/part in the porous border is a right thing to do? That its perfectly ok that Canada for example allows goods from China that we already have tariffs on to enter Canada at a lower rate, and then come across the US border from Canada to purposefully avoid Chinese tariffs? Or that we still have high volumes of fentynal coming across from both the northern and southern border? that while the high level of crossings that have been occurring for 4 years have been slowed down greatly (no thanks to Biden obviously), that the crossings are still too high, and that the cost associated with having to do the work on our side could be greatly reduced if Canada and Mexico did their part to control the problem on their side?

If you're bitching about the POSSIBILITY of inflation tomorrow... where were you in 2022 when inflation was 8%? or 2023 when it was 4.1% (GDP growth was only 2.3% so inflation was still significantly high).. or 2024 when inflation was 2.9% (a very good number based on historical values.. but still outpaced our GDP in 2024 which was only 2.8%)...

Youve been here since 2023... show me a post since your arrival where you complained about the Biden administrations actions that impacted our economy... Ill be happy to eat some crow if you can deliver one..

Looking at the time you spend on this forum you obviously have a lot of time in your hands.
You also know everything and always right.
I'm impressed.
I'll try to keep it short.
Two wrongs does not make one right, because we had inflation does not mean we should have it again.
I'm not a Biden fan, never voted for the guy and called him a senile puppet recently and many times before that but I'm happy how my investments gained in the last two years of his presidency.
Having said that I'm not a fan of Trump either.
I'm also not naive enough to believe that tariffs or anything for that matter will stops drugs coming across the border as long as there's a huge demand here.
Tariffs will not get rid of the trade deficit and Mexico and Canada will not lie down and beg for mercy.
All they will do is make everything more expensive for the common folk on both sides of the border and make us an unreliable partner in international trade because flip flopping.
As far as stock market we'll see in couple months...
I'll be out of here for a while as I have better things to do but will check in couple weeks with the popcorn ready to see the carnage.

 

[John Wasmuth]

Top FBI agent in NY ousted…..

Head of FBI New York office forced out after criticizing Trump pursuit of agents who investigated Jan. 6

The top FBI official who defiantly proclaimed last month he was prepared to “dig in” for a “battle” with the Trump administration over its request for the names of FBI agents who worked on Jan. 6th cases retired under pressure today as the leader of the New York field office, five sources...

www.nbcnewyork.com

 

[Scott CWO]

I wonder if this type of outrage would exist if the shoe was on the other foot? Hypothetical of course, what if it was us in trouble and all Trump had to do was sign a deal that had already been ironed out but couldn’t control himself and ruined it? (hopefully it’s still on the table) I doubt he would be applauded like Z is

Yes, that would be interesting. Problem is, Ukraine isn’t as desperate as Trump to stop the war. They are killing lots of Russians.

 

[lwaters]

If this trajectory continues, whether tariffs, realigning our foreign policy, rising prices, falling GNP, or firing constituents, at some point, those who voted for Trump but do not buy into his every utterance are going to become skeptical. Most are not going to become democrats. But a lot could start engaging their representatives, and many more could simply stay home in 26. We'll see.

I think you will find more democrats joining the republican party. This actually could move the base from the far right to the middle.

 

[Red Leg]

I think you will find more democrats joining the republican party. This actually could move the base from the far right to the middle.

Perhaps, but it isn't happening yet. An Emmerson poll came out today, and Trump is back under 50% and the generic dem vs rep congressional ballot is back to two points favoring the democrat party. Who knows, but I do not see the national inflection point that many others see. It is why I think presidential unforced errors can be so consequential.

 

[Red Leg]

Interesting comments from an American serving with the international legion in Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1j2u6og/american_volunteer_nasty_of_the_13th_ngu_brigade

 

[Red Leg]

Trump will convene a meeting with his national security advisory team on March 3rd, to discuss the possibility of cutting off aid to the Ukraine.

I'll get the popcorn ready.......

Apparently that is going to happen. Among other things, that decision will cut off Patriot missile deliveries which should quickly raise the civilian body count. Patriot is the only system really effective at intercepting Russian ballistic missiles - a rather decisively purely defensive capability. I assume everyone in the administration will wear that bit of butchery with pride. They will have really showed that rude fellow Zelensky. Sorry, forgot to add "little," that seems to be important.