Interesting analysis by Zeihan on the President's EO designating cartels as terrorist organizations. I would be curious to hear if our resident legal scholars would agree that the EO has the unintended effect of granting legal asylum to almost 200 million migrants.
Unintended consequences aside, the end game (among many other outcomes) is the use of direct actions against them using tier 1 personnel. There are 2 camps to this, and it really boils down to a blend of both.
1) The cartels will likely experience a violence like they've never seen. I think, personally, they will be tasked alongside ICE/DEA/ATF for domestic direct-actions. This is the likely scenario. The categorization of them allows that, if not permissible, already. We already know that active tier 1 and PSC tier 1's in the past have been used alongside the 3 letters. If anything, it makes it more flexible in terms of ROE and applications.
Foreign, in-country...that's actually a big line to cross. High altitude insertions/in-fils, targeted raids/roll-ups/eliminations, etc. I think that's probably the line before they need to or commit to air assets. At that point, with air assets, that's a big, big line to cross. You're not talking guys walking around with small arms and stuff like that. These guys have technicals with 50 cals, RPG's, frags, and rumor is there are even SAMs and other MANPADS.
What exactly do you do if a team gets pinned down by heavy fire? Let them fight, likely to the death? Or call in air assets? If you call in air assets on a bordering nation...that's a big, big statement.
2) OPSEC and PERSEC are major issues. We've know the intel ops surrounding the cartels is a leaky ship, at best, here in the USA. CBP, ICE, ATF, DEA, and other agencies and agents have been compromised. The sad reality is that the cartels will likely be tipped off.
This is going to be an interesting one, to say the least.