Politics

[Datchew]

i saw the longshoreman strike as well. Kind of amazing it hasn't happened in such a long time. And yes, the timing is so weird on so many levels. Including 2 wars going on that we're involved in besides the election optics.

They're making a big deal about how much $ this guy makes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841107303971348730

I would guess in an organized labor pool like this that has been around a long time that they truly feel pushed up against a wall if they're willing to do this. They have to realize the anger they're going to create against themselves.

The guy in the video - Harold Dagget - comes across like a mob boss, but he's the negotiator and paid tuff guy. So that may be how he sees his role.

Anyone here with direct experience?

 

[Datchew]

also on the port strike - we just had a major hurricane with heavy damage in Florida and up into the gulf states and above. If the strike cripples relief efforts... just wow.

 

[Red Leg]

Something key to note (I think).. is US CENTCOM estimated in 2022 that Iran possesses roughly 3000 ballistic missiles (all ranges included in that number)... many of those 3000 missiles do not have the effective range to be launched at Israel from Iran (but could hypothetically be moved to other locations like Syria, Yemen, etc and then be within striking distance)..w

Assume the assessment that Iran launched 180 at Israel today is correct (thats the last news report I read)...

Thats no small number.. its just under 1/16th of their entire stockpile..

IF the attack was effective.. then having 15/16ths of the stockpile left presents a serious threat to Israel... BUT.. every volley they send renders their stockpiles smaller and smaller.. and these arent the sort of things they can replace quickly or effectively..

If the attack was largely thwarted.. knowing that even when Iran throws what is a relatively huge number of its available resources at an attack it can be contained.. that should seriously embolden not just Israel, but every enemy of Iran...

Much like Russia in Ukraine.. Iran with depleted resources and the western world with proven capability to overcome their attacks with minimal damage is a MAJOR victory that will resonate for a very long time..

Its also important to note that Iran is VERY dependent on other countries (specifically Russia and North Korea... but also others) for the materials needed to build missiles, and often times for the missiles themselves (a significant number of Iranian missiles are of North Korean origin for example)..

Well.. Russia really isnt in a position to help them out much right now and has most of its military focus pointed elsewhere.. and while I am sure the NORKS will sell Iran anything it is willing to pay for.. the NORKS have some pretty big orders to fill already in their attempts to support the Russians.. their factories and logistics assets can only handle so much at a time I would think..

Though I do not know, I am really confident that the Israeli phased array detection system can differentiate between a non-maneuvering ballistic threat that does and does not pose a threat. If a missile is going to hit inside an air base wire but not near an asset it would be ignored and not targeted. Understanding full well that Israel will not show any real damage they are releasing footage from the air bases showing big holes in empty terrain.

As far as I am aware. the only Iranian ballistic missiles with the clear range to hit Israel are the Khorramshahr. it is a single stage, liquid fuel ballistic missile very much like a more modern V2, and the Sejjil which is a two stage solid fuel missile. Open source estimates of inventory are all over the place but 500 is pretty safe as of two-years ago. So, there is definitely a finite supply of which some significant number have been fired.

Their capacity to build replacements in large numbers or quickly must be limited thanks to sanctions.

 

[Wheels]

Regarding Israel and Iran. Our tax dollars are paying for both inbound and outbound rockets/missiles.

 

[Brent in Az]

This country always goes to shit whenever Democrat's are in control.

You think people would learn.

 

[Newboomer]

This country always goes to shit whenever Democrat's are in control.

You think people would learn.

They lack the basic cranial acuity to accomplish anyting meaningful.

 

[Hunter4752001]

Some claims that Iran also used their new Fattah hypersonic missile. What will be significant is not what damage was caused, but rather how sucessful were the missiles in getting through the defences. The Fattah was designed to carry a nuclear warhead whenever Iran either developes their own or is supplied with one developed by their allies.

The Nevatim Air Base which was targetted is the home to Israel's F35I Adir squadrons. There have been reports that the Israelis specificaly modified them to carry nukes (much as the US has recently announced). Nevatim connected to the nearby Negev Nuclear Center via Hwy 25.

If the current conflict is going to escalate to all out war, it makes sense for Iran to regard the removal of the tactical and nuclear threat posed by Nevatim AB as a high priority.

 

[Tanks]

This country always goes to shit whenever Democrat's are in control.

You think people would learn.

GOP was in control when we invaded Iraq. A war that should never have happened and it’s ramifications we are still feeling today.

 

[skydiver386]

The cracks have finally started to show. One of the biggest News Anchors on Russian state controlled media now calling for Putin to step down.

 

[sgt_zim]

GOP was in control when we invaded Iraq. A war that should never have happened and it’s ramifications we are still feeling today.

And here we are 20+ years later, many on the right have buyer's remorse over Bush and Cheney. Not that there was any great choice - Bush v Kawliga or Bush v Senator Heinz Ketchup.

 

[Tanks]

And here we are 20+ years later, many on the right have buyer's remorse over Bush and Cheney. Not that there was any great choice - Bush v Kawliga or Bush v Senator Heinz Ketchup.

Well, remorse is over the wars. Afghanistan we should have left after killing most of the Taliban and Iraq we never should have gone in. You can’t nation build with people culturally stuck in the 15th century.

However, I’d still vote for Bush, even today.

 

[mdwest]

Well, remorse is over the wars. Afghanistan we should have left after killing most of the Taliban and Iraq we never should have gone in. You can’t nation build with people culturally stuck in the 15th century.

However, I’d still vote for Bush, even today.

We never got close to killing most of the taliban... which is why as soon as the window of opportunity opened for them to regain control of the country, the taliban is who retook the government..

I believe you can indeed nation build with people culturally stuck centuries behind... but that takes letting the professionals do their jobs and the politicians sitting down, shutting up, and allowing that to happen.. which, by the way, includes the State Department (who in my opinion is marginal at maintaining state to state relationships.. but has incredibly limited capacity, much less understanding of nation building.. they actually really suck at it...)...

As far back as 2004 I said ipods and playboy magazines did more to bring Afghanistan back into the 19th century than the US Government did (after just a couple of years of US occupation and US forces and contractors bringing the western world with them)...

And.. for what its worth.. the good ole USA played a HUGE role in reverting Afghanistan to the stone age.. At one time they were actually a fairly "modern" nation...

If the bureaucrats had stayed out of the way, we might have gotten them back to the 1970's during the recent war (where they once were, and were pretty damn good at.. before WE designed, funded, and backed the Taliban for the purpose of running off the Soviets in the 1980's)..

This was Afghanistan in the mid 1970's... Doesnt look that different than much of Europe or the US to me...

 

[wesheltonj]

GOP was in control when we invaded Iraq. A war that should never have happened and it’s ramifications we are still feeling today.

NO we are feeling problems because Jimmy Carter did not take care of business. Everyone in Iran expected "fire to rain down" but none was forth coming. And Reagan did not help when he cut and run from Lebanon.

 

[Wheels]

Some claims that Iran also used their new Fattah hypersonic missile. What will be significant is not what damage was caused, but rather how sucessful were the missiles in getting through the defences. The Fattah was designed to carry a nuclear warhead whenever Iran either developes their own or is supplied with one developed by their allies.

The Nevatim Air Base which was targetted is the home to Israel's F35I Adir squadrons. There have been reports that the Israelis specificaly modified them to carry nukes (much as the US has recently announced). Nevatim connected to the nearby Negev Nuclear Center via Hwy 25.

If the current conflict is going to escalate to all out war, it makes sense for Iran to regard the removal of the tactical and nuclear threat posed by Nevatim AB as a high priority.

I have read unconfirmed reports that Nevatim was hit. Not sure if that is factual or not. One of the videos from the Western Wall seems to show a trajectory towards Beer Sheva/Nevatim/Dimona. Even if the hypersonic missiles could hit in 15 minutes, you would think that Israel would be able to scramble and get the F35's in the air.

It will be interesting to see what Israel's response is. Israel never ceases to surprise me. I know I wouldn't want to live on Khark Island right now.

 

[Brent in Az]

Let the Walz spewing bullshit begin

 

[Corey0372]

GOP was in control when we invaded Iraq. A war that should never have happened and it’s ramifications we are still feeling today.

Bush and Cheney surely have a lot of the blame, they were in the White House after all. However let's not leave out the role of the geniuses at PNAC like Bill Kristol, Robert Kagan, Frederick Kagan and Cheney's principal Foreign Policy advisor Victoria Nuland.

 

[Brent in Az]

Instead of answering the question, all Walz does is attack Donald Trump.

Trump, Trump, Trump,.......orange man bad.

 

[Corey0372]

We never got close to killing most of the taliban... which is why as soon as the window of opportunity opened for them to regain control of the country, the taliban is who retook the government..

I believe you can indeed nation build with people culturally stuck centuries behind... but that takes letting the professionals do their jobs and the politicians sitting down, shutting up, and allowing that to happen.. which, by the way, includes the State Department (who in my opinion is marginal at maintaining state to state relationships.. but has incredibly limited capacity, much less understanding of nation building.. they actually really suck at it...)...

As far back as 2004 I said ipods and playboy magazines did more to bring Afghanistan back into the 19th century than the US Government did (after just a couple of years of US occupation and US forces and contractors bringing the western world with them)...

And.. for what its worth.. the good ole USA played a HUGE role in reverting Afghanistan to the stone age.. At one time they were actually a fairly "modern" nation...

If the bureaucrats had stayed out of the way, we might have gotten them back to the 1970's during the recent war (where they once were, and were pretty damn good at.. before WE designed, funded, and backed the Taliban for the purpose of running off the Soviets in the 1980's)..

This was Afghanistan in the mid 1970's... Doesnt look that different than much of Europe or the US to me

Well said, the problem with arming crazies is the crazies have a tendency to linger and take their own form.

There was a time when American families were living in places like Kajaki and Lashkar Gah, wild to think about now, but the Helmand Valley Authority managed to pull off some pretty impressive projects. The Kajaki Dam is still providing power through a lot of the valley. Afghanistan is just historically a very tricky place.

I think sometimes what kind of crazy book you could write if you were to go to Afghanistan today and become a hunting and fishing outfitter service.

 

[Brent in Az]

Screw you, CBS.

 

[mdwest]

Well said, the problem with arming crazies is the crazies have a tendency to linger and take their own form.

There was a time when American families were living in places like Kajaki and Lashkar Gah, wild to think about now, but the Helmand Valley Authority managed to pull off some pretty impressive projects. The Kajaki Dam is still providing power through a lot of the valley. Afghanistan is just historically a very tricky place.

I think sometimes what kind of crazy book you could write if you were to go to Afghanistan today and become a hunting and fishing outfitter service.

Absolutely true....

In 2007 the company I was working for wanted to start providing security services to a variety of USG customers.. to do that in Afghanistan we needed to obtain an Afghan Security License in addition to a different type of business license than we already had in country (we were largely involved in EOD, UXO, and mine clearing up until that point and were only providing "security" for ourselves.. once we wanted to start "selling" security services it required a different license)..

The problem was Afghanistan wasnt willing to provide any new licenses in country at that time... there were already several US firms licensed there (DynCorp, Triple Canopy, SOC, Blackwater, etc..etc..) and there were also several Afghan owned (US operated) firms licensed and operating there as well.. and the govt of Afghanistan didnt want to bring in any new competition... they essentially wanted the US Govt to be limited to just the few US firms already established, or to using Afghan firms...

My solution was to get a list of all of the licensed companies in country, and then buy one of them... I thought for sure there was some warlord in some province somewhere that would be willing to sell his license for a decent sized chunk of change plus an agreement to hire all of his people (tribesmen) at "US" wages, which would make him a local hero, etc..etc..

Once I got the list and figured out who all owned companies, etc.. I took a very different direction...

I found a German guy that had been living in Afghanistan since the late 1970's.. that had gotten a license during the 1990's with the intent of running a security business in Kabul.. but never really did much with it...

If you spent any time in Kabul, you might know about a certain German meat market/butcher that owned a couple of shops in the city that was known for having particular wonderful beef and goat that many of the restaurants bought from.. and several of the SOF teams in the area would swing by and buy a goat or a lamb from for cook outs, etc.. that was the same guy...

He and his extended family had been living in Kabul for decades.. they moved there during the glory days of the early 70's.. and by the time things went to shit, they just stayed and figured out how to make a living through it all.. The Taliban never bothered them.. they werent a threat.. and they provided a valuable service to the community.. so they just stuck around..

By the time we got there they were living like freaking kings.. they had a really nice little family compound outside of town as well as a couple of big villas near Computer Street that they all lived in.. and had more money than they could possibly spend...

He was happy to sell us his security license.. we paid a pretty penny for it.. and he wasnt doing anything with it anyway...

I found there were a number of European families still living around Afghanistan in the 2000's (I'm guessing theyre still there now.. .they were there before we got there.. no reason for them to not continue living there after we were gone)... there were a number of Italians out near Adraskan that we ran into a couple of times.. and some other Germans we ran into once in Helmand..