Politics

[Datchew]

i saw the longshoreman strike as well. Kind of amazing it hasn't happened in such a long time. And yes, the timing is so weird on so many levels. Including 2 wars going on that we're involved in besides the election optics.

They're making a big deal about how much $ this guy makes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841107303971348730

I would guess in an organized labor pool like this that has been around a long time that they truly feel pushed up against a wall if they're willing to do this. They have to realize the anger they're going to create against themselves.

The guy in the video - Harold Dagget - comes across like a mob boss, but he's the negotiator and paid tuff guy. So that may be how he sees his role.

Anyone here with direct experience?

 

[Datchew]

also on the port strike - we just had a major hurricane with heavy damage in Florida and up into the gulf states and above. If the strike cripples relief efforts... just wow.

 

[Red Leg]

Something key to note (I think).. is US CENTCOM estimated in 2022 that Iran possesses roughly 3000 ballistic missiles (all ranges included in that number)... many of those 3000 missiles do not have the effective range to be launched at Israel from Iran (but could hypothetically be moved to other locations like Syria, Yemen, etc and then be within striking distance)..w

Assume the assessment that Iran launched 180 at Israel today is correct (thats the last news report I read)...

Thats no small number.. its just under 1/16th of their entire stockpile..

IF the attack was effective.. then having 15/16ths of the stockpile left presents a serious threat to Israel... BUT.. every volley they send renders their stockpiles smaller and smaller.. and these arent the sort of things they can replace quickly or effectively..

If the attack was largely thwarted.. knowing that even when Iran throws what is a relatively huge number of its available resources at an attack it can be contained.. that should seriously embolden not just Israel, but every enemy of Iran...

Much like Russia in Ukraine.. Iran with depleted resources and the western world with proven capability to overcome their attacks with minimal damage is a MAJOR victory that will resonate for a very long time..

Its also important to note that Iran is VERY dependent on other countries (specifically Russia and North Korea... but also others) for the materials needed to build missiles, and often times for the missiles themselves (a significant number of Iranian missiles are of North Korean origin for example)..

Well.. Russia really isnt in a position to help them out much right now and has most of its military focus pointed elsewhere.. and while I am sure the NORKS will sell Iran anything it is willing to pay for.. the NORKS have some pretty big orders to fill already in their attempts to support the Russians.. their factories and logistics assets can only handle so much at a time I would think..

Though I do not know, I am really confident that the Israeli phased array detection system can differentiate between a non-maneuvering ballistic threat that does and does not pose a threat. If a missile is going to hit inside an air base wire but not near an asset it would be ignored and not targeted. Understanding full well that Israel will not show any real damage they are releasing footage from the air bases showing big holes in empty terrain.

As far as I am aware. the only Iranian ballistic missiles with the clear range to hit Israel are the Khorramshahr. it is a single stage, liquid fuel ballistic missile very much like a more modern V2, and the Sejjil which is a two stage solid fuel missile. Open source estimates of inventory are all over the place but 500 is pretty safe as of two-years ago. So, there is definitely a finite supply of which some significant number have been fired.

Their capacity to build replacements in large numbers or quickly must be limited thanks to sanctions.

 

[Wheels]

Regarding Israel and Iran. Our tax dollars are paying for both inbound and outbound rockets/missiles.

 

[Brent in Az]

This country always goes to shit whenever Democrat's are in control.

You think people would learn.

 

[Newboomer]

This country always goes to shit whenever Democrat's are in control.

You think people would learn.

They lack the basic cranial acuity to accomplish anyting meaningful.