Politics

[Ray B]

The Russians will win even if they kill everyone and destroy the entire country.

I think killing every Ukrainian would be required for Putin to gain control of Ukraine but i don't think the other European countries would allow the victory to stand. Remedial action would be taken.

 

[JGRaider]

The relationship between the current Ukrainian government and US political and bureaucratic elites from both sides of the aisle is no secret. Biden, Obama, Romney, McCain, Bush, Kerry, Pelosi, Graham, McConnell, Rubio—I could go on and on— coupled with a seemingly endless contingent of often anonymous neocon and liberal elites plugged into every branch and department of the Federal Government bureaucracy cement their own inertia. Their overt campaigns of influence in Ukraine, to the tune of billions of dollars, hundreds of programs, and decades of direct intervention, have been worn as badges of honor.

If you don't count the millions paid out to relatives of US policy makers and the Clinton Foundation, the billions in arms sales, or energy exchange arbitrage, what's not clear is how this has been or continues to be of much benefit to the American people.

One doesn't even need to wade into the murky reality of what has or hasn't happened between the Ukranians and the Russians and the Germans over the last 120 years. While many seem to suggest that our continued involvement is about making a better, more democratic, freer Ukraine and maybe even Russia, such outcomes are far from guaranteed. Determining how a volatile and turbulent state like Ukraine will respond to any of the possible outcomes of a Western funded protracted military conflict is highly improbable. The only certainty here is a windfall for US special interests and those doing their bidding.

For the rest of us in America this 'war' is a distraction and trap. It's a distraction from a profound domestic crisis. In the last two years we've seen the American people deceived and manipulated on a scale only predicted in the wildest of fictions. We've seen our government, emboldened by a big tech powered media, recklessly trample the sacred tenets of American society, far outpacing existing mechanisms for cultural self-reflection and realignment. Individualism and the autonomous pursuit of truth, expression and fulfillment all depend on a literate, self possessed, and collaborative deliberation. These are our virtues and they're being drowned out by fear and hate.

Our government has instigated and perpetuated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. We owe it to ourselves and to the people of Ukraine to do a full accounting of these actions and associated motives before mindlessly drumming a mob toward greater and greater escalation. This crisis didn't come as a surprise. Quite the opposite. It's been going on for years. The Biden administration egged these rivals on, at first without wholesale support of European and NATO allies. They chose to fan the flames of war to distract the public from two years of failed COVID policy in a ploy to unite the them behind a doddering and feckless President and Vice President. We mustn't lose focus of where we are and what brought us here.

 

[Ray B]

We owe it to ourselves and to the people of Ukraine to do a full accounting of these actions and associated motives We mustn't lose focus of where we are and what brought us here.

On the Income tax form there's a question: Any debts that became uncollectable or worthless. Excuse my skepticism but I suspect the above debt is part of the Impossible Dream.

 

[PARA45]

I could, but we all know how.

 

[Red Leg]

The relationship between the current Ukrainian government and US political and bureaucratic elites from both sides of the aisle is no secret. Biden, Obama, Romney, McCain, Bush, Kerry, Pelosi, Graham, McConnell, Rubio—I could go on and on— coupled with a seemingly endless contingent of often anonymous neocon and liberal elites plugged into every branch and department of the Federal Government bureaucracy cement their own inertia. Their overt campaigns of influence in Ukraine, to the tune of billions of dollars, hundreds of programs, and decades of direct intervention, have been worn as badges of honor.

If you don't count the millions paid out to relatives of US policy makers and the Clinton Foundation, the billions in arms sales, or energy exchange arbitrage, what's not clear is how this has been or continues to be of much benefit to the American people.

One doesn't even need to wade into the murky reality of what has or hasn't happened between the Ukranians and the Russians and the Germans over the last 120 years. While many seem to suggest that our continued involvement is about making a better, more democratic, freer Ukraine and maybe even Russia, such outcomes are far from guaranteed. Determining how a volatile and turbulent state like Ukraine will respond to any of the possible outcomes of a Western funded protracted military conflict is highly improbable. The only certainty here is a windfall for US special interests and those doing their bidding.

For the rest of us in America this 'war' is a distraction and trap. It's a distraction from a profound domestic crisis. In the last two years we've seen the American people deceived and manipulated on a scale only predicted in the wildest of fictions. We've seen our government, emboldened by a big tech powered media, recklessly trample the sacred tenets of American society, far outpacing existing mechanisms for cultural self-reflection and realignment. Individualism and the autonomous pursuit of truth, expression and fulfillment all depend on a literate, self possessed, and collaborative deliberation. These are our virtues and they're being drowned out by fear and hate.

Our government has instigated and perpetuated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. We owe it to ourselves and to the people of Ukraine to do a full accounting of these actions and associated motives before mindlessly drumming a mob toward greater and greater escalation. This crisis didn't come as a surprise. Quite the opposite. It's been going on for years. The Biden administration egged these rivals on, at first without wholesale support of European and NATO allies. They chose to fan the flames of war to distract the public from two years of failed COVID policy in a ploy to unite the them behind a doddering and feckless President and Vice President. We mustn't lose focus of where we are and what brought us here.

I think that is becoming the neo-isolationist mantra, and while there is just enough fact in it to seem truthful, it does an enormous disservice to the emerging democracy that is Ukraine and the effort it is making to maintain its right of self determination.

A similar argument was made in 1938 by a then majority of Americans that Hitler and his aspirations for the Sudetenland and eventually Poland were a European problem and not an American one. Three years later we were front and center the greatest war in human history.

We have ignored Europe twice during the last century to our and the world's great cost. I am certain we eventually would be equally regretful should we ignore Russian ambitions now.

And Covid?!? I can not imagine any informed person truly believes this has anything at all to do with Covid or anyone's policies toward the pandemic. This conspiracy nonsense has become the internet equivalent of reality TV.

 

[Hunter4752001]

I think that is becoming the neo-isolationist mantra, and while there is just enough fact in it to seem truthful, it does an enormous disservice to the emerging democracy that is Ukraine and the effort it is making to maintain its right of self determination.

A similar argument was made in 1938 by a then majority of Americans that Hitler and his aspirations for the Sudetenland and eventually Poland were a European problem and not an American one. Three years later we were front and center the greatest war in human history.

We have ignored Europe twice during the last century to our and the world's great cost. I am certain we eventually would be equally regretful should we ignore Russian ambitions now.

And Covid?!? I can not imagine any informed person truly believes this has anything at all to do with Covid or anyone's policies toward the pandemic. This conspiracy nonsense has become the internet equivalent of reality TV.

There have been several times when I have disagreed with @Red Leg , and occasions when I've been more than a little irritated. But more and more I find I'm developing a profound respect for the man.

 

[Doug3006]

The relationship between the current Ukrainian government and US political and bureaucratic elites from both sides of the aisle is no secret. Biden, Obama, Romney, McCain, Bush, Kerry, Pelosi, Graham, McConnell, Rubio—I could go on and on— coupled with a seemingly endless contingent of often anonymous neocon and liberal elites plugged into every branch and department of the Federal Government bureaucracy cement their own inertia. Their overt campaigns of influence in Ukraine, to the tune of billions of dollars, hundreds of programs, and decades of direct intervention, have been worn as badges of honor.

If you don't count the millions paid out to relatives of US policy makers and the Clinton Foundation, the billions in arms sales, or energy exchange arbitrage, what's not clear is how this has been or continues to be of much benefit to the American people.

One doesn't even need to wade into the murky reality of what has or hasn't happened between the Ukranians and the Russians and the Germans over the last 120 years. While many seem to suggest that our continued involvement is about making a better, more democratic, freer Ukraine and maybe even Russia, such outcomes are far from guaranteed. Determining how a volatile and turbulent state like Ukraine will respond to any of the possible outcomes of a Western funded protracted military conflict is highly improbable. The only certainty here is a windfall for US special interests and those doing their bidding.

For the rest of us in America this 'war' is a distraction and trap. It's a distraction from a profound domestic crisis. In the last two years we've seen the American people deceived and manipulated on a scale only predicted in the wildest of fictions. We've seen our government, emboldened by a big tech powered media, recklessly trample the sacred tenets of American society, far outpacing existing mechanisms for cultural self-reflection and realignment. Individualism and the autonomous pursuit of truth, expression and fulfillment all depend on a literate, self possessed, and collaborative deliberation. These are our virtues and they're being drowned out by fear and hate.

Our government has instigated and perpetuated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. We owe it to ourselves and to the people of Ukraine to do a full accounting of these actions and associated motives before mindlessly drumming a mob toward greater and greater escalation. This crisis didn't come as a surprise. Quite the opposite. It's been going on for years. The Biden administration egged these rivals on, at first without wholesale support of European and NATO allies. They chose to fan the flames of war to distract the public from two years of failed COVID policy in a ploy to unite the them behind a doddering and feckless President and Vice President. We mustn't lose focus of where we are and what brought us here.

This terrible war “was instigated and perpetuated by our government“? Not Putin. Really?

 

[WAB]

My personal opinion is that Russia needs to be subjected to crippling sanctions, not just until they capitulate in Ukraine, but until they give up their nuclear arsenal. We’ve all been concerned about Iranian nuclear capability, justifiably, while Russia descends into third world status with a despot for a leader, and the nuclear arsenal of a superpower. A defeated Russia with a massive nuclear arsenal is not the right answer for our grandchildren.

Oh how I wish we had a real leader in the White House!

 

[One Day...]

Strategic level SitRep (Situation Report) March 21
Realistically.........
Put up or shut up?

Apologies for a longish read, but you may (?) find it worth it...

There have been a few oceans of ink spent to debate Russia's conduct of the war, and the take-home points at this time are:

• The initial politically driven hope and military picnic for a quick and joyful "liberation" of Ukraine was crushed.
• The subsequent incomprehensible use of military power by Russia, indeed revealed enormous gaps between the Russian military fearsome reputation and its less than stellar (euphemism!) actual performance. Whether military incompetence was mixed with political calculus to not destroy Kyiv, or not, will remain forever debated (one does not necessarily exclude the other).
• Whether the Russian offensive has culminated, or not, will be tested in the coming weeks. In fairness, vocabulary has different meaning to different people with different experiences: for example, it is clear that individual attacks have culminated, and even collapsed, but overall armed aggression continues unabated. So yes, Russia has failed in the execution of combined arms operations, but it is apparently falling back on the good old soviet-style steamroller slowly grinding down the enemy, rumbling over the ruins of cities destroyed by indirect fire.
• As noted above, while this is true for Mariupol and Kharkiv this is not true (yet?) for Kyiv. Whether this is due to artillery being out of range of the city center (so far); whether limited missile strikes are due to limited inventory that prevents massive use; or whether Putin is holding Kyiv hostage as a gun to Zelenskyy's head in good old soviet-style coercive diplomacy, will also remain forever debated (and here too, one or two do not necessarily exclude the third).
• All of the above being as it may, including Russian senior officers' incompetence, Russian junior officers' ineptitude; Russian conscript dismal morale, Russian staggering material losses and abandonments, Russian important human losses, etc. the three fundamental facts at this stage are:
  • the Ukrainian military is successful at slowing the Russian advance to a snail's pace, but not quite completely stopping it;
  • the Ukrainian military is not engaging in offensive operations intended to expel the Russian army from Ukraine, and many doubt that it would have the capability to do so (it is considerably easier to run small-scale guerilla-type ambushes than it is to run large-scale offensive operations - ask the Russians!);
  • the Russian army continues to progress, however so slowly and so clumsily.

There have been a few more oceans of ink spent to debate Putin's motivations, and the take-home points at this time are:

• Objectively; nobody knows! So, we are all reduced to speculating, a very uncertain endeavor...
• Some are willing to dismiss any notion that Putin was sincere in the "security demands" that were for years the rationale behind his numerous warnings (this perspective is likely facilitated by the later additional layer of historical/cultural reasons that Putin advanced for his operation, likely for internal political consumption, but nonetheless confusing the original issues).
• Some are willing to accept that Putin was sincere in the "security demands" that were for years the rationale behind his numerous warnings (this does not mean being an apologist for Putin or rationalizing his aggression; it just means trying to understand the drivers behind his egregious strategic mistake in escalating the 8-year low intensity Donbass regional war into a full scale relatively high intensity war.
• Whether Putin considers that the Ukrainian model is a threat to the Russian model, or whether he considers that NATO/American bases on Russian borders are as unacceptable as Warsaw Pact/Soviet bases on Cuba were to the US, will too remain forever debated (and here again one does not necessarily exclude the other).
• All of the above being as it may, dismissing Putin as stupid of crazy is likely not productive as, short of a total military victory and unconditional surrender, which does not seem to be in the cards right now, from either side, it takes two parties to reach a negotiated settlement, and trying to understand what the other party can, and cannot, compromise on, is critical to reach a settlement.

And there have also been a few oceans of ink spent to debate the West's (US/NATO/EU) reaction, and the take-home points at this time are:

• Right, wrong, or indifferent, the facts are that neither the US nor the individual European nations have engaged militarily in the conflict (neither EU nor NATO are decision makers per se, NATO as a military organization only implements decisions made by the political decision makers of the member countries, and EU as a political organization does the same).
• Whether the 1938 Munich Agreement, historically interpreted as appeasement of Germany and Hitler's Sudetenland ambitions is relevant, or not, will also remain forever debated. The incommensurable difference of course between 1938 Germany and Hitler, and 2022 Russia and Putin, is that Russia disposes of the second largest, and generally credible, nuclear dissuasion forces in the world - which Germany did not; and Putin did not publish Mein Kampf - which Hitler did.
• Whether the delivery of offensive equipment, e.g. the Polish Mig 29, would be considered an unacceptable escalation by Putin will also remain forever debated. We simply do not know. For what it is worth, it seems clear that both Poland and the US think so, because while both would apparently support the other doing it, neither want to do it themselves.
• Whether the establishment of a no-fly zone, and the shooting down of Russian aircrafts by US/NATO aircrafts would be considered an unacceptable escalation by Putin will also remain forever debated. We simply do not know, although, frankly, this would indeed be a shooting war. In truth, the issue is simplified by the fact that a no-fly zone would be suicidal to US/NATO air forces. S400 air defense systems located inside Belarus and inside Russia would be able to shoot down any US/NATO aircraft over Ukraine. The only way to prevent it would be air defense suppression missions inside Belarus and inside Russia, which would be a de facto declaration of war.
• Whether Putin would use the Russian nuclear deterrent if US/NATO engaged in the delivery of offensive equipment, or in a shooting war over a no-fly zone, will also remain forever debated. We simply do not know. What seems clear, is that neither the US nor European countries are willing to take the risk (at this stage). Few will have missed the use by Russia a few days ago of a Kinzhal hypersonic missile that has currently no equivalent in the West; that the West cannot intercept; that can be armed with either a conventional or nuclear warhead; and that can reach Paris and Berlin from the Russian airspace. It for sure was not used for tactical reasons on the Ukrainian battlefield, but as a not-so-subtle diplomatic message from Poutine...

In the end, whether the US and European countries are being neo-isolationist and ignore Eastern Europe is indeed a fascinating question, and the take-home points at this time are:

• Undoubtedly, not engaging militarily in the defense of Ukraine does an enormous disservice to its emerging democracy and the effort it is making to maintain its right of self-determination. No argument there.
• Are the US and European nations ready to put New York, Washington, Paris, Berlin, etc. on the nuclear front line over Ukraine? Tough decision.............................................
• Can the US and European nations somehow engage in a military action in Ukraine that they are CERTAIN will remain conventional and regional? Delicate gamble.............................................

How can we help Ukraine and Eastern Europe? There are some existing take-home points from previous experience:

• History is replete of examples when, in the name of occidental democratic values, including the right of self-determination, Western democracies have encouraged oppressed people to fight back. In some cases Western democracies acted upon their principles and backed their words by military action. WW II is a prime example. In other cases, Western democracies did not act upon their principles and did not back their words by military action, and oppressed people were butchered. Recent examples include the Kurds in 1991; Libya, which disintegrated despite a no-fly zone; Syria, which the West essentially abandoned to Russia; Iraq, still struggling to emerge from a 20-year civil war; Afghanistan, back under Taliban control; etc.
• It is also worth remembering that we ARE helping Eastern Europe, with the membership of Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia in NATO. This certainly does not help Ukraine now, but the US are hardly ignoring Eastern Europe, hence not ignoring Putin's ambition to restore Velikaya Rossiya (great Russia).

Biden may be fiercely criticized (I am generally not a supporter...) because from the get go he said that America would not engage in WW III over Ukraine, but I give him credit for not raising false hope with Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian nation, because the pragmatic reality of the situation (Ah! the Realpolitik we were discussing earlier...) that Biden, Macron and Scholz recognized, is that Ukraine is a case of "put up or shut up".

It does not mean ignoring Ukraine, and the way we can help their emerging democracy is to:

1- Either "put up" and enter the conflict, and roll the dices on whether we can keep it conventional and regional? Is this what is being argued?​

2- Or try to accelerate as much as we can a negotiated settlement, for which Zelenskyy himself has already indicated that the building blocks exist:​

• Zelenskyy has "cooled down" (his words) about Ukraine entry in NATO, and to paraphrase him in numerous declarations to the American and Western press, if NATO does not want Ukraine, he will not beg NATO to let them in.
• Zelenskyy "will discuss and find a compromise" (his words) about Crimea, and every diplomat in the world knows that Crimea has always been Russian since the Tsar conquered it from the Ottoman Empire; is 90%+ Russian today; its transfer to Ukraine in 1954 was a Soviet internal political gimmick; and Crimea is essentially Sevastopol, the only warm water Russian naval base, and its only access to the Mediterranean, and Russia cannot possibly give it up.
• Zelenskyy is "open to discussions about control of Russian-backed separatist regions" (his words).

These were the three original demands of Putin in the "security demands" that were for years the rationale behind his numerous warnings.​

​

Maybe it is time to put all the American might in off-line talks with Putin, taking him up on his "security demands", giving him a face-saving "victory" for internal consumption, and bribing him into the deal with sanctions removal.

Conversely, EU is already willing to integrate Ukraine (EU is NOT the same thing as NATO), and this gives Zelenskyy a win after his face-saving refusal to beg NATO if NATO refuses Ukraine.

No doubt some would see such negotiated settlement as rewarding aggression, and no doubt negotiated settlements are never prefect solutions, but is there a better solution?

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Like many of you, I have not been impressed with anyone in the Biden administration...........until now. I recorded "60 Minutes" yesterday and just got around to watching part of it.

This guy, deputy national security advisor Daleep Singh is sharp and well spoken.

3/20/2022: Economic Shock and Awe, Through the Roof, Sue Bird

Understanding the economic sanctions against Russia; Lack of new construction and corporate landlords contributing to skyrocketing rent; Sue Bird looks back before her 19th WNBA season

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Red Leg]

Today's update from the Institute for the Study of War.

I actually no longer care what Putin's actual motives were for initiating this 17th century invasion of Ukraine. What is relevant to me is what he (and more importantly the people around him) are thinking now and what we can do to further their ever growing perception of pending disaster.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city and strengthen defensive positions but did not conduct major offensive operations. Russian forces did not conduct any

www.understandingwar.org

 

[One Day...]

Today's update from the Institute for the Study of War.

I actually no longer care what Putin's actual motives were for initiating this 17th century invasion of Ukraine. What is relevant to me is what he (and more importantly the people around him) are thinking now and what we can do to further their ever growing perception of pending disaster.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city and strengthen defensive positions but did not conduct major offensive operations. Russian forces did not conduct any

www.understandingwar.org

Thank you Red Leg

In other times with another Russian (Soviet) army (thinking 1944, 1945...) what a cauldron in the making this would have been...

As it is, no real risk of it...

I vastly agree that the only meaningful issue by now is what "we can do to further their ever growing perception of pending disaster" and how we solve this. I am not sure that we can accelerate the disaster, aside from continuing to arm Ukraine's troops with individual weapons - including Javelins an Stingers - as we are currently doing, but we can probably accelerate a negotiated solution. I tried to address it in my above SitRep post...

 

[Red Leg]

I frankly believe it is in the interests of the US and NATO to quit parsing whatever were Putin's motives for beginning this barbarism. Instead, NATO and the US should be doing everything in its power to force Putin to think about how he will justify this continuing bloodletting tomorrow and the next day.

This morning, for around an hour and a half, Russian news agencies and the Ministry of Defense had the following on their websites "disputing" Ukraine's daily loss estimates for Russian forces.

https://archive.ph/oVRSl

Translation of key elements,

"According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the RF Armed Forces have lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military personnel.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the alleged large-scale losses of the RF Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured. "

These tallies are indeed 30% less than what Ukraine claims , but the last time the Federation admitted losses it was around 500 .............

I suppose it could be a complicated psyop by the Ukrainians, but the numbers generally track with US estimates of a few days ago and the capture was from the Russian Federation sites. It also may have been a bumbling idiot at MOD. However, I doubt either is true.

During his pep rally the other night, the broadcast accidently cut away before the great leader finished his remarks. Again, perhaps another technical glitch.

He is jailing generals and he is failing on the battlefield. We need to complicate his calculus not simplify it.

 

[Doug3006]

I read a great article penned by Kevin D Williamson of National Review. He acknowledged the sad and appalling human toll of this war, but said he hoped that someone in Washington was clear-headed enough to understand what a gift Russia has given the West. Putin’s war has made Russia an international outcast. They’ve been voted off the island so to speak. We should keep the pressure on them until they make significant changes, including real verifiable disarmament before they can regain any of what they’ve lost.

 

[One Day...]

I frankly believe it is in the interests of the US and NATO to quit parsing whatever were Putin's motives for beginning this barbarism. Instead, NATO and the US should be doing everything in its power to force Putin to think about how he will justify this continuing bloodletting tomorrow and the next day.

This morning, for around an hour and a half, Russian news agencies and the Ministry of Defense had the following on their websites "disputing" Ukraine's daily loss estimates for Russian forces.

https://archive.ph/oVRSl

Translation of key elements,

"According to preliminary estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine to March 20, the RF Armed Forces have lost 96 aircraft, 118 helicopters and 14.7 thousand military personnel.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the alleged large-scale losses of the RF Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured. "

These tallies are indeed 30% less than what Ukraine claims , but the last time the Federation admitted losses it was around 500 .............

I suppose it could be a complicated psyop by the Ukrainians, but the numbers generally track with US estimates of a few days ago and the capture was from the Russian Federation sites. It also may have been a bumbling idiot at MOD. However, I doubt either is true.

During his pep rally the other night, the broadcast accidently cut away before the great leader finished his remarks. Again, perhaps another technical glitch.

He is jailing generals and he is failing on the battlefield. We need to complicate his calculus not simplify it.

I fundamentally agree.

The caveat is that I believe that understanding how the enemy's mind works is useful.

Actually, I believe that we agree on that, as long as it does not become the primary focus in lieu of how we defeat him, which I am not advocating (becoming the primary focus).

Are the Ukrainian doing as good in psychological operations (psyop) as in field operations? Heck yes! Phantom of Kyiv video game sequence; Miss Ukraine goes to war with a soft-air rifle; Snake Island reported martyrs recently resurrected; reportedly sunk Russian warship Vasiliy Bykov showing up back to base with not a scratch; etc. etc. are vivid testimony to that.

But this being said, Russians losses are different from propaganda myths, and their material losses are vastly open source verified, while the human losses are in line with the usual ratios.

As to Putin's discontent with some intelligence and military brass, I guess that he would have every reason to be displeased, except, except, except that this is what you get yourself into when you do not tolerate differing opinions. Since you and I tolerate very well differing opinions, we fully understand the risk that Putin has exposed himself to, and the price he now pays for it.

But in the end, yes, we need to defeat Putin, and the sooner the better, so what do we do? Do you think we should engage militarily? Can we contain such an engagement to conventional and regional?

Considering the fact that containing a US/NATO military engagement to conventional and regional is a very, repeat: VERY, risky gamble; and considering that economic sanctions have never made a dictator change his mind (e.g. Saddam Hussein; Bashar al-Assad; Ebrahim Raisi; Muammar al-Gaddafi; Kim Jong-un; Putin himself since 2008; etc.) my own view is that, pragmatically, and however distasteful it might be, we incite him at the negotiation table (see SitRep post above) for lack of a better and more satisfying option... (i know, I know, it sucks!)

 

[Ray B]

I am wondering about the preparation of soldiers in the Russian military for their next rank/position. My experience in the US military involved each rank being prepared for the next promotion, whether that occurred on a parade field or when the senior soldier on a patrol became incapacitated and the next in command became the leader. In the US military if a unit's commanding officer was incapacitated the executive officer took-over until the replacement process was completed. Due to the preparation the exec was able to continue direction of the unit with very little deviance, other than the unit's personality. this process went through the ranks down to the privates who were prepared to move from rifleman to fire team leader on a moments notice.

It appears to me that the Russian army does not follow this model- in fact it appears that the officer in charge purposely keeps the subordinates in the dark so as to protect his position.

From those more familiar with the Russian military than I, is this perception correct?

 

[sgt_zim]

I am wondering about the preparation of soldiers in the Russian military for their next rank/position. My experience in the US military involved each rank being prepared for the next promotion, whether that occurred on a parade field or when the senior soldier on a patrol became incapacitated and the next in command became the leader. In the US military if a unit's commanding officer was incapacitated the executive officer took-over until the replacement process was completed. Due to the preparation the exec was able to continue direction of the unit with very little deviance, other than the unit's personality. this process went through the ranks down to the privates who were prepared to move from rifleman to fire team leader on a moments notice.

It appears to me that the Russian army does not follow this model- in fact it appears that the officer in charge purposely keeps the subordinates in the dark so as to protect his position.

From those more familiar with the Russian military than I, is this perception correct?

This is the way many/most/all non-western militaries operate.

NCOs are the backbone of western militaries. NCOs in the west have both considerable authority and responsibility. Only officers in other militaries have any real authority, and sometimes they seem to have responsibilities, and sometimes it rolls off them onto their NCOs, who didn't have the authority to carry out what they are being held responsible for.

 

[mark-hunter]

Keeping subordinates in dark, is not necessary reserved for russian model.
I'll give example. In shipping when companies were reducing numbers of (expensive) european officers, they started by taking officers from far east. (beacuese they are cheap, and with total disregard to their training and certification system - where certificates could be bought, quality was not considered)
It was expected, from releived officers to train new incomers in their duties so these in reality could take over their job.
So, of course, it was not working.
So, the point being - if at all, it is not exclusive for russian system.

Now, about russian military system, and how they train their subordinates, in reality we have no idea.
Vashper could say something about it, but he is quiet lately.

 

[Ray B]

NCOs in the west have both considerable authority and responsibility.

Quite true!! I recall a situation at a Marine Barracks in 1969. Due to several causes the morale among the enlisted (E2-E5) was very low. Our Sgt Major lined up the Platoon officers (2 captains) and the XO ( a major) and read them the riot act- claimed that the morale on that particular day was going to be the low- that tomorrow the morale was going to improve. At the time Sgt Maj Kabase was the 6th highest ranking enlisted person in the entire USMC. I don't recall what happened with the morale, but none of those self-focused officers were going to challenge him.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Interesting comments from Tucker Carlson last night on Ukraine pre-war politics.

Tucker Carlson attacks Ukrainian government which he describes as a “growing dictatorship” and “authoritarianism”

www.mediamatters.org

TUCKER CARLSON (HOST): So with a single command, Zelensky made it impossible for anybody to run against him for president. He did this not just to Opposition Platform For Life, but to ten other political parties that he believed were insufficiently loyal to him. They're all illegal now. Obviously, there's a war underway in Ukraine and, on that basis, Zelensky has declared martial law. But we must tell you, there is no evidence that the opposition parties he banned were aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine. Opposition Platform For Life, for example, denounced the Russia invasion the moment it happened, just like everybody else. But Zelensky took the opportunity to turn Ukraine into, effectively, a one-party state, which it now is.

So having banned all opposition, he then seized control of the country's media outlets. Zelensky signed a decree that combines all national television channels into a single platform that he controls. He described this as a, quote, "unified information policy," and it certainly is unified.

So if all of these details seem shocking to you, if this is not the Zelensky you've heard about on "The Today Show," then you may not have been paying attention to Ukraine. Zelensky has been solidifying complete control over Ukraine for a long time, since long before the Russian invasion and the war. Last year, he had his main political opponent arrested and his assets seized by the state. At the same time, Zelensky shutdown three of Ukraine's most popular television networks, channels that, not coincidentally, had criticized him.

So, how should we as Americans assess this? Well, first and most obviously, by admitting this is authoritarianism, it's not democracy. And then second, by acknowledging that actually it's pretty common around the world. Even in 2022, real democracy is a rare thing anywhere. Most countries are still governed by some variety of dictatorship, whatever they may call it and that includes close American allies.

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You should be very worried by your leaders' response to what's happening in Ukraine, the growing dictatorship there. And that's a word for it. What's another word for it? If you have ideas, send it to us.