Day 7
A week into the invasion, the ineptitude of Russian forces seems ever more apparent. The "40 mile convoy," the deliberate (or perhaps indiscriminate is a better word) bombardment of civilian areas and cultural sights (they struck the Babi Yar memorial and Kharkov's Freedom Plaza), and the failure to achieve air superiority, are the most glaring indicators.
A point that I have tried to make several times is how incredibly difficult it is to project combat power - particularly land combat power. Though Russia borders Ukraine, the Russian formations are trying to operate hundreds of miles from their garrisons. This requires a graduate level understanding of the application of combat power. The American Army has more experience doing it than anyone on the planet. The Russians have not attempted such operations against a foe armed with peer technology since WWII.
The forty mile convoy is the best example of the slow motion debacle facing the Russians. No one deliberately parks bumper to bumper along a highway in a combat zone. Unfortunately, the Ukrainians can not mount conventional air attacks against that military parking lot, but video footage from their Turkish UAV's shows strikes against those bottle necks of trucks. I would assume, small units of Ukrainians are periodically carrying out harassing attacks along its length.
My assumption is that lead elements of the convoy simply ran out of fuel. The units and columns behind gradually stacked up - think the Washington Beltway at 5 pm or the 401 in LA. Because it is cold, the poorly trained conscript troops who make up the majority of Russia's support forces, kept their engines running to stay warm. Over the ensuing 48 hours, more and more vehicles used up their fuel, adding to the log jam. The Russians are now looking at trying to refuel hundreds of vehicles along a single resupply route jammed shoulder to shoulder in some places. To further complicate things, the ground will soon begin to thaw making all wheeled traffic road bound, compounding getting fuel trucks to the forward elements wherever they are engaged.
If fuel is short, I can't help but wonder about rations. That in turn makes me wonder about morale and discipline. The backbone of a professional army is its non-commissioned officer corps. The Russians really don't have one in the same way that West thinks of it.
From the "The NCO Journal / Army University Press"
Russia has maintained a hybrid system of conscription and contract service to the present day.5 In this system, officers, not NCOs, are the primary trainers of the platoon. In order to prepare these lieutenants, cadets usually attend four- or five-year military academies that more closely resemble a combination of the U.S. Military Academy and the Basic Officer Leaders Course.6 As soon as a new lieutenant graduates from an academy and takes command of their platoon, they are expected to immediately begin training and maintaining discipline.7 Soviet lieutenants fill the leadership, planning, training, and disciplinary roles of both a U.S. platoon leader and platoon sergeant.
For those of us who have served in combat, we fully understand the critical role of the experienced, professional NCO at platoon, company, and battery level - particularly in combat. The flaws of the Russian system can only become more apparent the longer and bloodier this fight continues.
I assume commanders are getting both frustrated and perhaps fearful. After all. Russia does not have an entirely enlightened history of tolerating failure. Using MLRS and missiles as terror weapons, whether ordered by Putin or an intermediate commander, simply underscores their deteriorating position.
Ukraine's greatest weakness is its pending humanitarian crisis. Lots of civilians are trapped in Kiev and Kharkov. They not only have to fear being targeted by Russian forces, but also dwindling supplies of food and water. I am confident that huge supplies are being gathered in Eastern Poland and Western Ukraine. I pray logistic routes are being opened to the east to get those supplies forward. The next few days will be critical.
Finally, let's assume Russia succeeds in taking Kiev and Kharkov. Then what? Three quarters of Ukraine remains under Ukrainian control. More and more military equipment and supplies will pour in from the West. Then what does Russia do.
As someone who commanded through the Brigade level and served as ADCM and ADCS of one of our mechanized infantry divisions, I am almost offended by the professional ineptitude of the Russian Army. What a pathetic attempt to crush a free people.
