Politics

[Ray B]

Just wondering- does anyone else see similarities between the current events in Kyiv and those of 77 years ago in Bastogne?

 

[lwaters]

Is the truckers still headed to D.C. The one on I-70 I think fizzled. They were supposed to arrive in time for senile Biden state of the union.

 

[CoElkHunter]

Is the truckers still headed to D.C. The one on I-70 I think fizzled. They were supposed to arrive in time for senile Biden state of the union.

I'd rather hear his "state of my cognitive impairment and incompetence" speech? LOL

 

[shootist~]

IMO, Biden's weakness may have actually benefited Ukraine at this point in time.
NATO and other countries seem to be moving from weakness to realizing their asses really are next and they cannot count on strength from the US of A.

Germany (and others) today, went from the sidelines to publicly announcing lethal aid is headed to Ukraine. Others, including non-NATO countries Norway and Sweden banned Russa commercial access to their airspace.

Not related to the above, but China declared they now respect Ukrainian borders. Social media seems to be playing a unique roll that Putin can't control.

Putin has screwed the pooch this time, IMHO.

 

[CoElkHunter]

IMO, Biden's weakness may have actually benefited Ukraine at this point in time.
NATO and other countries seem to be moving from weakness to realizing their asses really are next and they cannot count on strength from the US of A.

Germany (and others) today, went from the sidelines to publicly announcing lethal aid is headed to Ukraine. Others, including non-NATO countries Norway and Sweden banned Russa commercial access to their airspace.

Not related to the above, but China declared they now respect Ukrainian borders. Social media seems to be playing a unique roll that Putin can't control.

Putin has screwed the pooch this time, IMHO.

"realizing their asses are next". Yes they are! Yesterday, Putin threatened Finland and Sweden with "military and economic" consequences if they joined NATO. Putin has lost his damned mind!

 

[Pheroze]

Interesting allies in this war! This has to be the first time a private, pirate type group has joined the cause

 

[CoElkHunter]

Interesting allies in this war! This has to be the first time a private, pirate type group has joined the cause

View attachment 454592

The group Anonymous is nobody to fool around with. They will make Russian IT security work overtime to counter their attacks.

 

[CraigV]

 

[Pheroze]

Can you get the video of the guy offering to tow the tank back to Russia

Found it

It's funny.

 

[CoElkHunter]

Don't think the "slaughter" of the 13 Ukranian "Border Guards" on Snake Island by a Russian warship is lost on the Ukranian military. The small, strategically unimportant island was bombarded, killing the men. A very poor PR move by Russia. That may become the "remember the alamo" moment for Ukraine?

 

[CoElkHunter]

Found it

It's funny.

Should've had an electric powered tank! Ha! Ha! Ha!

 

[Scott CWO]

Couple of other thoughts. I question what Russia's operational reserves of money and munitions, look like to sustain this level of conflict. Modern cruise and intermediate range missiles are expensive and can't be stamped out of a reloading press. I have no access to numbers, but assuming the count of 150-200 launches is correct, I would not be surprised if Russian operational forces haven't expended three-quarters of those available. They probably have a bunch of Scuds, Frogs, and their ilk in storage somewhere, but they would be lucky to hit Kiev with them, much less a specific target.

Fighters and attack helicopters are difficult to maintain. In combat operations, they devour parts, fuel, and man hours at incredible rates. I suspect their availability rates are already collapsing. Plus as we saw last night, the Ukrainians are still able to engage low flying aircraft (probably with Stingers).

Assuming Putin was counting on 3-4 day decapitation exercise with a week of clean-up, the mathematics may suddenly be starting to look unsustainable. Not counting replacement costs, an operation of this size and complexity has to be running what? 1 - 1.5 billion a day? How long can Putin and Russia sustain that level of expenditure before the pragmatists step in?

Some observations and questions for you.

Your knowledge of history is what I have seen from other educated, career military USA officers. I would think it really helps in evaluating friends and foes and what they are likely to do. I am a history buff but don’t have your experience or knowledge of European history. It’s too bad our politicians are not as well educated about history as our professional military officers are in most cases. The world would be a safer place.

I find it incredulous that some people blame the West for Putin’s and Russia’s paranoia about NATO. I believe I speak for nearly all Americans and Europeans when I say that we have zero interest in ever taking over or claiming Russia. Hell, I would love to visit Russia sometime but I don’t ever remember any of our people or politicians ever expressing a desire to rule over Russia or its people and I certainly do not. The paranoia by Putin and his ilk about NATO being an offensive organization is ridiculous. It’s purely defensive. None of the members want to occupy or take over Russia. When the Soviet Union broke apart, the former forced member countries of the Soviet Union breathed a sigh of relief and most warmed to the West and wanted to join NATO of their own accord to protect them from Russia and someone like Putin. People seek prosperity and more freedom. Big surprise!

Now for some questions. It has been said that Russia’s economy is the size of the economy of Texas and I understand your evaluations of their lack of funding to keep this war going for a long time. I am hoping that the Ukrainians can slow Putin down enough to change his mind about any possible invasions of Lithuania, the other Baltic countries, Poland, etc…. However, if Putin succeeds in Ukraine and possibly sets his sights on the Baltics, I wonder if you think it would be a smart play to shut down his oil & gas operations, end Russia’s access to the SWIFT banking system (including for oil & gas transactions), isolate the Russian central bank, start delivering natural gas to Europe from the US and gather all the strength of NATO and get rid of him once and for all or at least take away his offensive military desires? Ever since he came to power, I thought he would be big trouble and he just gets worse and worse. Even if he doesn’t go into the Baltic countries, should we shut down his oil & gas income stream, banking system and force this thing to a head? Bring him to the negotiating table or perhaps worse? I understand there may not be the resolve needed in the current administration or in Europe for this but I don’t see him getting any better to work with anytime soon.

 

[lwaters]

Maybe Putin is using Ukraine to actually defeat us. The longer the war last the more we spend. Gas prices go through the roof and Americans have to spend a ton on food and energy. No more money for vacations and entertainment. The nation already divided. This could put it over the edge. I think Putin believes that the US population has no stomach for war after Afghanistan. Covid was made political and I have no doubt that this may also become political.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Interesting allies in this war! This has to be the first time a private, pirate type group has joined the cause

During the War of 1812 (US vs England), General Andrew Jackson used a rag tag group of US troops, volunteers, slaves (to earn their freedom) and pirates/privateers from Jean Lafitte's fleet to win the Battle of New Orleans. Interestingly, the battle was fought a couple weeks after the Treaty of Ghent had been signed, ending the war. Word of the treaty hadn't reached New Orleans in time.

 

[Pheroze]

I wonder how long it will take for the promised supplies to make it into the hands of the soldiers? It must be a mind boggling logistical problem right now.

 

[Wheels]

 

[Red Leg]

Some observations and questions for you.

Your knowledge of history is what I have seen from other educated, career military USA officers. I would think it really helps in evaluating friends and foes and what they are likely to do. I am a history buff but don’t have your experience or knowledge of European history. It’s too bad our politicians are not as well educated about history as our professional military officers are in most cases. The world would be a safer place.

I find it incredulous that some people blame the West for Putin’s and Russia’s paranoia about NATO. I believe I speak for nearly all Americans and Europeans when I say that we have zero interest in ever taking over or claiming Russia. Hell, I would love to visit Russia sometime but I don’t ever remember any of our people or politicians ever expressing a desire to rule over Russia or its people and I certainly do not. The paranoia by Putin and his ilk about NATO being an offensive organization is ridiculous. It’s purely defensive. None of the members want to occupy or take over Russia. When the Soviet Union broke apart, the former forced member countries of the Soviet Union breathed a sigh of relief and most warmed to the West and wanted to join NATO of their own accord to protect them from Russia and someone like Putin. People seek prosperity and more freedom. Big surprise!

Now for some questions. It has been said that Russia’s economy is the size of the economy of Texas and I understand your evaluations of their lack of funding to keep this war going for a long time. I am hoping that the Ukrainians can slow Putin down enough to change his mind about any possible invasions of Lithuania, the other Baltic countries, Poland, etc…. However, if Putin succeeds in Ukraine and possibly sets his sights on the Baltics, I wonder if you think it would be a smart play to shut down his oil & gas operations, end Russia’s access to the SWIFT banking system (including for oil & gas transactions), isolate the Russian central bank, start delivering natural gas to Europe from the US and gather all the strength of NATO and get rid of him once and for all or at least take away his offensive military desires? Ever since he came to power, I thought he would be big trouble and he just gets worse and worse. Even if he doesn’t go into the Baltic countries, should we shut down his oil & gas income stream, banking system and force this thing to a head? Bring him to the negotiating table or perhaps worse? I understand there may not be the resolve needed in the current administration or in Europe for this but I don’t see him getting any better to work with anytime soon.

Paragraph 1 - Thank you.

Paragraph 2 - I agree. Completely.

Post USSR Russia does not have the right to demand anything of any other sovereign nation. One only gets to become a hegemonic power if that nation, empire, whatever can, right or wrong, enforce it's regional demands. Other than its nuclear arsenal, Russia is little more than a third world power. In its Soviet guise it created a legacy of Eastern European states whose only desires are to be free of Russian influence. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is the result of Russia and Russia alone trying to reverse that tide of history. I would go further and say the invasion is the result of Putin and relatively small group of dead enders who support him trying to turn that tide.

The West would make a serious mistake in appeasing those demands. Were we to do so, we would undermine the very moral reasons that the have been the foundation of Western Democratic evolution since the Enlightenment.

Paragraph 3 - The Russian military, as demonstrated dramatically over the last 96 hours, is a shadow of the Red Army, and far less dangerous than I and most of my peers had assumed. I would revise my earlier estimate, and would now expect the US and NATO to achieve air superiority over Ukraine and the Baltics in around 24 hours.

But there is a huge wild card in the deck. The Russian nuclear arsenal is that of a super power. It is an arsenal currently under the control of a despot that seems to be acting somewhat irrationally (the threats against Finland and Sweden sound like the ravings of a madman) and not necessarily in the interests of his own people. He has committed his forces to an invasion where they are now looking not merely as aggressors, but also as bungling incompetents.

My concern is how does Russia, and more specifically, Putin, short of victory, get out of this? Let's say Kiev does not fall in the next week. Let's say that the more sweeping banking sanctions announced today (which I strongly support), truly begin to crater the Russian monetary and trade systems. I think it may be impossible for him to survive politically if he were to simply announce a cessation of military operations. I am very worried that an aging, unstable dictator, could feel compelled to lash out with tactical nuclear weapons at NATO staging areas in Poland or elsewhere as a last bid for regional dominance. I pray that stable minds in the Kremlin understand that our retaliation to that would be catastrophic - as much for Russia as any other nation.

I suspect we'll find out before the next month is over.

 

[flatwater bill]

I know a lot of Russians. They are a suspicious and paranoid lot. The expansion of NATO in 1997 worried them. Understanding that, and understanding one's adversary may have prevented this. I wonder how much of Russia....people, politicians and even military, actually support the invasion. Could there be large, powerful factions against this war? Any thoughts you could share, General (RL)?........V/R......FWB

 

[CraigV]

Paragraph 1 - Thank you.

Paragraph 2 - I agree. Completely.

Post USSR Russia does not have the right to demand anything of any other sovereign nation. One only gets to become a hegemonic power if that nation, empire, whatever can, right or wrong, enforce it's regional demands. Other than its nuclear arsenal, Russia is little more than a third world power. In its Soviet guise it created a legacy of Eastern European states whose only desires are to be free of Russian influence. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is the result of Russia and Russia alone trying to reverse that tide of history. I would go further and say the invasion is the result of Putin and relatively small group of dead enders who support him trying to turn that tide.

The West would make a serious mistake in appeasing those demands. Were we to do so, we would undermine the every moral reasons that the have been the foundation of Western Democratic evolution since the Enlightenment.

Paragraph 3 - The Russian military, as demonstrated dramatically over the last 96 hours, is a shadow of the Red Army, and far less dangerous than I and most of my peers had assumed. I would revise my earlier estimate, and would now expect the US and NATO to achieve air superiority over Ukraine and the Baltics in around 24 hours.

But there is a huge wild card in the deck. The Russian nuclear arsenal is that of a super power. It is an arsenal currently under the control of a despot that seems to be acting somewhat irrationally (the threats against Finland and Sweden sound like the ravings of a madman) and not necessarily in the interests of his own people. He has committed his forces to an invasion where they are now looking not merely as aggressors, but also as bungling incompetents.

My concern is how does Russia, and more specifically, Putin, short of victory, get out of this? Let's say Kiev does not fall in the next week. Let's say that the more sweeping banking sanctions announced today (which I strongly support), truly begin to crater the Russian monetary and trade systems. I think it may be impossible for him to survive politically if he were to simply announce a cessation of military operations. I am very worried that an aging, unstable dictator, could feel compelled to lash out with tactical nuclear weapons at NATO staging areas in Poland or elsewhere as a last bid for regional dominance. I pray that stable minds in the Kremlin understand that our retaliation to that would be catastrophic - as much for Russia as any other nation.

I suspect we'll find out before the next month is over.

Red Leg,

Concur with this assessment and line of thinking. Failure to achieve objectives, sanctions, and the internal public disapproval will weigh heavily in how this ends. It's the "what if" that is too difficult to predict. I think what also needs to be considered, is how do "we" offer Putin a way out. Unless the Russian populace goes after him with pitchforks and torches, he will need a way to feel honorable about exiting Ukraine. If not, that's when we may have the "Crazy Ivan" moment.

Having spent a lot of time in Russia over several years, most Russians (under 50yrs old) are proponents of the US and the west. Life there is also hard to compare to lots of other places. It's not about quality of life, instead truly survival. I equate most of Russia to the late 1800's, early 1900's here in the US. Communal wells, livestock roaming the streets, only growing vegetables that are able to survive the winter. This is every day life for those outside of Moscow.

 

[Ray B]

I wonder if becoming a paranoid schizophrenic is a result of a lifetime in the KGB or just a coincidence.