I see where you are coming from and somewhat agree.
I've been saying for a couple of months that the economy will be an issue for the midterms. The different equations that any administration uses to cook the numbers on inflation and the economy in general will be disproven in the grocery check out line and in the voting booth.
Yes, some prices have come down, gas etc. Groceries are still at an all-time high, most grocery stores are offering deals for savy shoppers. Yet, the middle class, the working class is being squeezed harder than ever. The living wage vs the cost of living.
I've been telling people that I know for months that Trump must do something to help the middle economically, something flashy that they can feel. If not the House will be lost and he will face endless impeachment hearings for the rest of his term. It will also set up the next Republican nominee for a harder road to hoe.
James Carville may be a maniac, but he damned sure got one thing right when it comes to the average voter!