Politics

[Tundra Tiger]

ok. Invaded a neighboring country? Can you remember how many times America has invaded countries around the world? in the name of freedom and democracy, of course..

Russia should not have invaded a sovereign nation. Period. There is no excuse or justification, or discussions to be had by trying to rationalize one. They effed up, and should be held accountable, though unfortunately that's probably not going to be the case. There is no punishment on this earth that is appropriate for the decisions and actions of Putin.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Unfortunately, the market will not have enough time to turn while Trump is still in office. This will all be undone in 2029

As much as I don't like how this was gone about, I predict sooner. This year is a wash. You will have some countries come to the table. Some are going be more difficult like China, India, EU, etc.

Powell is smoking crack at this point if he thinks that he can get away with less than 3 decreases this year. These payroll and job numbers are going to crater in Q3.

 

[Tanks]

3 to 4 months, and the tariffs will all be worked out. Foreign dignitaries will be flocking to D.C to negotiate with the Trump administration.

Now, we know that the tariffs are not based on tariffs the other nations charge us, but based on the trade imbalance.

So, are we going to sell cars and electronics to Japan. Cars and computer chips to S. Korea etc., etc.. ? Short of those countries not selling to the USA, I don't see how the balance could work out between a market of 350 million people and a market of 5-100 million people for most countries.

People in Asian countries can't afford goods made in the USA. Heck, Americans, for the most part, can't afford goods made in the USA.

The goal, which seems to be what these tariffs are intended for, is to make foreign goods just as expensive if not more expensive than goods produced here. If that does not lead to inflation, I don't know what will.

 

[mdwest]

While as a rule I detest political types... I have expressed several times that I think the two biggest brained, and most experienced/capable people in Trumps cabinet are Bessent and Lutnick..

I don't necessarily agree with everything Bessent is saying here.. and much of what he speaks to are just "talking points" that you'd expect him to say.. he does offer a few nuggets of wisdom that I was previously unaware of..

For example, he speaks to the CEO of Walmart already pressuring major Chinese product providers to eat the tariff costs and to keep the price of goods to Wal-mart the same... which would result in little to no impact on the American consumer in terms of pricing when purchasing China made products (much of what is in Walmart is obviously manufactured in China)..

So.. I did a little digging.. it looks like this is what happened in numerous cases related to the last set of Trump tariffs in the last administration... and why the American consumer didn't really see notable price increases on related consumables.. CEO's of major firms in the US leveraged their purchasing power and pushed the companies they were buying from to eat the costs... which they did.. because taking a 10% hit to the bottom line sucks.. but.. it doesn't suck nearly as bad as losing a huge chunk (if not all) of your revenue stream if you don't do it...

I doubt that approach works when a large business is attempting to purchase high cost, low volume items like the $3M industrial lathe needed to create a drive shaft for an aircraft carrier that someone used as an example in a prior post..

But it may well work when it comes to the average middle class American shopping at Home Depot or Walmart, looking to buy a hand saw, or a t-shirt that was made in Maylaysia..

The fact that Bessent and Collins appear to actually get along in this interview is in and of itself interesting.. she is very clearly a hater of the Trump administration, and has had numerous heated conflicts with the Press Secretary and other members of the Trump cabinet in interviews and discussions..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Many on Wall Street are licking their chops hoping the market hits 20- 30k they will make a fortune buying it all back.

Obviously many help drive it down for that reason.

 

[mdwest]

Many on Wall Street are licking their chops hoping the market hits 20- 30k they will make a fortune buying it all back.

Obviously many help drive it down for that reason.

its easier to make money in a bull market...

but the skilled get filthy rich in a bear market..

people counting on a 401K to get them through retirement are going to hate to see a 20K number...

but serious investors sitting on cash will absolutely love it..

 

[shooter]

Which means its going to be incumbent on Canada to change its approach if it hopes to have any success in dealing with Trump..

 

[Mekaniks]

its easier to make money in a bull market...

but the skilled get filthy rich in a bear market..

people counting on a 401K to get them through retirement are going to hate to see a 20K number...

but serious investors sitting on cash will absolutely love it..

It’s time to increase 401k and IRA contributions…..IMO
Buy all the way to the bottom to make big gains when it comes back…

 

[revturbo9967]

While as a rule I detest political types... I have expressed several times that I think the two biggest brained, and most experienced/capable people in Trumps cabinet are Bessent and Lutnick..

I don't necessarily agree with everything Bessent is saying here.. and much of what he speaks to are just "talking points" that you'd expect him to say.. he does offer a few nuggets of wisdom that I was previously unaware of..

For example, he speaks to the CEO of Walmart already pressuring major Chinese product providers to eat the tariff costs and to keep the price of goods to Wal-mart the same... which would result in little to no impact on the American consumer in terms of pricing when purchasing China made products (much of what is in Walmart is obviously manufactured in China)..

So.. I did a little digging.. it looks like this is what happened in numerous cases related to the last set of Trump tariffs in the last administration... and why the American consumer didn't really see notable price increases on related consumables.. CEO's of major firms in the US leveraged their purchasing power and pushed the companies they were buying from to eat the costs... which they did.. because taking a 10% hit to the bottom line sucks.. but.. it doesn't suck nearly as bad as losing a huge chunk (if not all) of your revenue stream if you don't do it...

I doubt that approach works when a large business is attempting to purchase high cost, low volume items like the $3M industrial lathe needed to create a drive shaft for an aircraft carrier that someone used as an example in a prior post..

But it may well work when it comes to the average middle class American shopping at Home Depot or Walmart, looking to buy a hand saw, or a t-shirt that was made in Maylaysia..

The fact that Bessent and Collins appear to actually get along in this interview is in and of itself interesting.. she is very clearly a hater of the Trump administration, and has had numerous heated conflicts with the Press Secretary and other members of the Trump cabinet in interviews and discussions..

I was under the impression items under $800 were exempt from tariffs.

Yes the large dollar items will be a huge issue as companies can not take that hit. We have millions in inventory we need to sort out before tomorrow.

 

[Tanks]

CEO's of major firms in the US leveraged their purchasing power and pushed the companies they were buying from to eat the costs... which they did.. because taking a 10% hit to the bottom line sucks.. but.. it doesn't suck nearly as bad as losing a huge chunk (if not all) of your revenue stream if you don't do it...

Except Chinese tariffs are much more than 10% this time around.

 

[mdwest]

t

View attachment 676564

he problem with Canada's concept is...

The US doesn't "lead" because it is loved and adored by the rest of the world...

Long before Trump became POTUS there has been a distaste for the US among more liberal Europeans, liberal Canadians, and other liberals around the more developed world... to include periods where we have liberal leaders (just less liberal than those in the EU, Canada, etc)..

The US has "led" because it has money.. and it has military might...

Canada has neither..

So why is this coalition going to follow Carne/Canada?


Thats just political drivel being spouted by Carne leading up to an election....


A coalition may indeed form.. @Tubby’s Canteen spoke to it a few pages back... But there is no way Von Der Leyen sitting in Brussels lets Canada "lead"...

and since the EU cant get along internally 2/3 of the time.. there's no way Meloni, Macron, or Scholz let Von Der Leyen lead..

So over the next 12-24 months that it takes this coalition to sort itself out.. what happens?

the local economies of the coalition fall dramatically...

which just leads to a larger problem to deal with than they already had on their hands..

 

[Tanks]

I was under the impression items under $800 were exempt from tariffs.

A single item for sale. When it is container full of items going to a client then the tariffs apply as the total of the transaction was over $800.

I have paid the 10% tariffs on electronic items purchased where individual cost was less than $800 but the total was more.

 

[mdwest]

It’s time to increase 401k and IRA contributions…..IMO
Buy all the way to the bottom to make big gains when it comes back…

that is absolutely the right approach IMO for most..

the people that will get screwed is a large chunk of the 60+ crowd that were planning on cashing in between 62-67 and hitting the retirement button...

there may not be time for recovery for them.. If the market drops to 30K.. it may well be 5-10 years before we see it nudge over 40K again (where it was sitting prior to last week)..

We're I in my mid 30's, I'd be buying like a mad man once things bottom out though..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Speculation/ betting would also make you money quickly. Bet on the market gaining it all back by?????


This panic will end by June. When most major trading partner deals have been started. When low fuel prices, tax cuts, inflation drops more. The fed lowers interest rates. It will spur confidence, and the market.

Sell your gold at $3500

Buy, buy, buy.

 

[Red Leg]

Speculation/ betting would also make you money quickly. Bet on the market gaining it all back by?????


This panic will end by June. When most major trading partner deals have been started. When low fuel prices, tax cuts, inflation drops more. The fed lowers interest rates. It will spur confidence, and the market.

Sell your gold at $3500

Buy, buy, buy.

I would consider 3500 a long term target.

 

[Wheels]

That's fair. Right after the euro was adopted wasn't it like $1.25-$1.30 USD? You'd think you'd be able to find data that far back but nope.

Think when Euro started in the late 90's par was $1.15.

Memory also has a way of proving me wrong sometimes.

 

[mdwest]

a couple of key things in the linked clip...

1 - Pelosi statement from 1996 almost perfectly parallels the Trump Administrations position on Tariffs today..

2 - Trump is very clear that tariffs are about leverage... He speaks to using tariffs to leverage the deal on tik-tok that he wants from China as an example... so he is clearly willing to make "deals" outside of just dropping tariffs... want to keep your tariffs but want us to remove ours or reduce ours? cool.. there's something else I want that I'd be willing to trade with you...

 

[TTundra]

I was under the impression items under $800 were exempt from tariffs.

Yes the large dollar items will be a huge issue as companies can not take that hit. We have millions in inventory we need to sort out before tomorrow.

Any item for commercial sales is subject to duties...Fishing hooks to vehicles. A total order of sub $800 is exempt.

I've been on the phone with manufacturers all across the globe the past 2 days. Most are doing their due diligence in petitioning their governments as the business from the US is simply not replaceable. The world simply turns based on economics... and the military industrial complex.

Looks like Vietnam is talking to Trump already, Italy, Israel was preemptive (I believe they were left on the list purely to not show favoritism), Mexico at @mdwest pointed out. Japan and India signaled as well.

I've told many clients to wait until next week as the landscape will change a lot over the next 7 days again.

 

[Wheels]

So.. I did a little digging.. it looks like this is what happened in numerous cases related to the last set of Trump tariffs in the last administration... and why the American consumer didn't really see notable price increases on related consumables.. CEO's of major firms in the US leveraged their purchasing power and pushed the companies they were buying from to eat the costs... which they did.. because taking a 10% hit to the bottom line sucks.. but.. it doesn't suck nearly as bad as losing a huge chunk (if not all) of your revenue stream if you don't do it...

Agree this will happen.

The 25% steel tariff increase of 2018 resulted in an end price to consumers increase of apx. 2%. A lot of things played into this like currency manipulation and % of market already held by US steel producers but buyers cramming the price back on the sellers was the primary factor. If the world goes into a global recession sellers/exporters won't have a choice due to lack of alternative buyers.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Think when Euro started in the late 90's par was $1.15.

Memory also has a way of proving me wrong sometimes.

I can't remember either. It's funny because you think you'd be able to find a long term chart. Nope. I can find what round Harry Selby in the 1950's but cant find the USD/EU price chart more than 5 years ago.